Looking grim for Labour

[IC1967]

I'm looking at the last 2 years. Labour were getting 44%. They are now getting low 30's. The Tories are now consistently 34%. With nearly 3 months to go the Tories will go higher and Labour will continue the trend of losing support.

Get in.

[Yargo]

Why does Mick refer to people on here as "lefties",he's a UKIPer no?Hasn't Nigel Garage recently praised ex KGB thug Putin(the Labour left used to love all things Soviet),this along with a virulent anti Europeanism is exactly the ground occupied by the lunatic fringe of the Labour left of the early eighties,Mick is a lefty

[The Red Baron]

Indeed, does left and right mean anything these days? After all, you could hardly have called Tony Blair a leftie,could you?

[The Red Baron]

BST. Miliband could actually have trumped Cameron had he wanted to. He could have called for an EU referendum and said he would hold it in 2016.

Cameron's 2017 date is posited on the idea that he will negotiate a better deal for the UK. Miliband would not need to do that as from day one he would argue the case for staying in under current terms.

You may be right about Miliband taking a principled stance on this issue, but that doesn't square with some of his other policies, which seem to be determined by the current news agenda.

[IC1967]

Why does Mick refer to people on here as "lefties",he's a UKIPer no?Hasn't Nigel Garage recently praised ex KGB thug Putin(the Labour left used to love all things Soviet),this along with a virulent anti Europeanism is exactly the ground occupied by the lunatic fringe of the Labour left of the early eighties,Mick is a lefty

I am the voice of reason. I hold some left wing views and I hold some right wing views. I don't just hold left wing views (unlike some others around here I could mention). For example I despise the monarchy. This is hardly a right wing view. I always look at an issue dispassionately before deciding I was 'right' all along.

It would be fair though to say I am a right wing extremist in most of my views so I am quite happy to be labelled right wing.

By the same token some lefties will hold some right wing views. But I class them as lefties if that is their general outlook on life. People like silly Billy I would class as a left wing extremist. This is why we clash so much. I don't think he would acknowledge any right wing view is correct because he is so ideologically driven. I on the other hand will acknowledge where a left wing view is correct.

That is the difference between us. I will espouse a point of view even if it is not right wing. Silly Billy on the other hand will only espouse left wing views whether they are correct or not.

[IC1967]

Ed Milliband has hired a charisma coach! Hahaha!

What a loser. What a waste of money. He is beyond help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLvtPOOqJ6A

[IC1967]

That leftie rag the Guardian has got the Tories on 36% and Labour on 32%. That's more like it. Those predicting a hung parliament will be made to eat their words. Looks like us UKIPers are moving back to the Tories where they are the best party to defeat Labour. It's called using our brains and voting tactically.

Get in.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31501805

[IC1967]

Unemployment down yet again today. Wages rising faster than inflation for 4 months now.

Get in.

[IC1967]

The latest Opinium/Observer poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%. This is the first time that Opinium have shown a Conservative lead since back in 2012.

Get in.

[IC1967]

Oh dear. Labour big hitter Jack Straw has been caught out in a 'cash for access' sting. His daily rate? £5000 per day. That's over £1.8million per annum. What a plonker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/11411007/Jack-Straw-and-Sir-Malcolm-Rifkind-in-latest-cash-for-access-scandal.html

[IC1967]

The trend is undeniable. ComRes in the Daily Mail have figures of CON 34% and Labour on 32%. The two point Conservative lead is the largest ComRes have shown since 2010.

Get in.

[GazLaz]

CON will get most seats but it won't be a majority. Who will they form a coalition with though? Will Lib get enough seats? SNP might overtake them and they won't team up with the Torys.

[IC1967]

CON will get most seats but it won't be a majority. Who will they form a coalition with though? Will Lib get enough seats? SNP might overtake them and they won't team up with the Torys.

I still think Tories will get an overall majority but it could quite easily be another Tory/Lib Dem coalition I think the LibDems will still be the largest 'minor' party. One thing I'm certain of, Labour will not be forming the next government either on their own or in coalition with another party.

The main reason I think the Tories will at least be the largest party is that the voters they lost to UKIP are steadily coming back to them. This shown in all recent opinion polls. I think people will only stay with UKIP if it's to try and defeat Labour or the LibDems.

Tactical voting will decide this election and it will be Labour that suffers the most.

[wilts rover]

Oh dear. Labour big hitter Jack Straw has been caught out in a 'cash for access' sting. His daily rate? £5000 per day. That's over £1.8million per annum. What a plonker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/11411007/Jack-Straw-and-Sir-Malcolm-Rifkind-in-latest-cash-for-access-scandal.html

I believe there are two MP's mentioned in that story, who is the other one and which party is he a member of please?

[The Red Baron]

Oh dear. Labour big hitter Jack Straw has been caught out in a 'cash for access' sting. His daily rate? £5000 per day. That's over £1.8million per annum. What a plonker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/11411007/Jack-Straw-and-Sir-Malcolm-Rifkind-in-latest-cash-for-access-scandal.html

As well as the Tory Malcolm Rifkind, who, unlike Straw, managed to make a real idiot of himself.

Though I think in his desire for a quick headline Miliband is making an ass of himself over this issue. The question of how MPs are to be remunerated needs careful thought.

[IC1967]

Oh dear. Labour big hitter Jack Straw has been caught out in a 'cash for access' sting. His daily rate? £5000 per day. That's over £1.8million per annum. What a plonker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/11411007/Jack-Straw-and-Sir-Malcolm-Rifkind-in-latest-cash-for-access-scandal.html

As well as the Tory Malcolm Rifkind, who, unlike Straw, managed to make a real idiot of himself.

Though I think in his desire for a quick headline Miliband is making an ass of himself over this issue. The question of how MPs are to be remunerated needs careful thought.

It is very difficult for me as I loathe Labour with a passion, but here is my considered dispassionate view of Milliband.

He does not display the characteristics of a leader. He doesn't lead. He reacts to events usually very quickly in a populist manner. He doesn't set the agenda like a leader should. By reacting to events all the time in this quick soundbite populist manner his policies soon unravel under closer scrutiny. I'm convinced he thinks the electorate are on the whole thick and these type of tactics will win the election. I've got news for him. It won't.

Now I know I hate Labour but I do think what I'm saying is bang on. I would be big enough to say the same about Nige or Dave if the cap fitted. I think in terms of leadership, those 2 are far better at setting the agenda. Milliband is a follower, not a leader.

Labour dropped a massive clanger picking him as leader.

[IC1967]

Oh dear. Labour big hitter Jack Straw has been caught out in a 'cash for access' sting. His daily rate? £5000 per day. That's over £1.8million per annum. What a plonker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/11411007/Jack-Straw-and-Sir-Malcolm-Rifkind-in-latest-cash-for-access-scandal.html

I believe there are two MP's mentioned in that story, who is the other one and which party is he a member of please?

The name of the other MP is in the link! I didn't hide anything! If you bothered to read the article it is obvious which party Rifkind is from. I would have thought anyone who has only the vaguest feel for politics would have known he was a Tory.

I can't believe you couldn't work out who the other one was and what party he was from. In future try reading the links I use to back up my statements then you won't have to ask such silly questions. Luckily for you I answer all questions thrown at me. Even the occasional silly one.

[IC1967]

The last 3 Yougov polls are showing an average of a 2 point lead for the Tories. The tide has finally turned and the Tories are starting to pull away from Labour. I expect the surge to continue and for the Tories to win an overall majority.

The bookies are now odds on for the Tories to have the most seats. 1/2 in fact. If only you'd all listened to the expert advice I gave many months ago to back them at 2/1. Labour are now 15/1 to win an overall majority.

With a giveaway budget to come, Labour are well and truly now on the back foot.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Get in.

[Iberian Red]

Get in!

[IC1967]

Newsnight up until now have had their experts predicting Labour and the Tories to each have about 285 seats. The latest prediction is for the Tories to have 295 seats and Labour only 267. More evidence that Labour are starting to lose ground as the grim possibility of a Labour government starts to dawn on the great British public. I'm so happy.

Get in.

[Filo]

Why have the latest opinion poll not been posted?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Why have the latest opinion poll not been posted?

Well, the last poll that Mick was so keen to trumpet was Yougov's, so here's their latest poll.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/29/labour-lead-4/

[Filo]

Why have the latest opinion poll not been posted?

Well, the last poll that Mick was so keen to trumpet was Yougov's, so here's their latest poll.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/29/labour-lead-4/

Thank you, Mick is usually on the ball with these opinion polls, I wonder why this one wasn't reported by Mick with the same enthusiasm?

[GazLaz]

The Tories are pretty nailed on to get most seats. I don't think that's in doubt.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The Tories are pretty nailed on to get most seats. I don't think that's in doubt.

More because of the SNP than the Tories or UKIP though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz.

Genuine question. What makes you think that?

[IC1967]

Why have the latest opinion poll not been posted?

Well, the last poll that Mick was so keen to trumpet was Yougov's, so here's their latest poll.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/29/labour-lead-4/

I think you'll find that I tend to vary the polls I report on. In this spirit here is the poll from Opinium after the budget showing a budget bounce as I predicted.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/21/budget-bounce-takes-tories-ahead-of-labour-by-three-points-in-the-polls

Get in.

Now as to the latest Yougov poll. That is the exception that proves the rule. There is a margin for error in polls and this one is obviously a rogue poll. It would be disingenuous of me to only report on rogue polls which is why I ignored it. But seeing as you lefties have mentioned it I felt I should comment.

Sorted.

[The Red Baron]

The Tories are pretty nailed on to get most seats. I don't think that's in doubt.

I think there's a lot of doubt. I can see that Labour could lose 20-30 seats they would normally count on in Scotland, but there are a lot of Tory-held marginals that could easily go Labour for all sorts of reasons.

Also - and this is not intended as a partisan point - the current distribution of votes vs. Seats works in Labour's favour. If the two parties got an identical number of votes, Labour would have a slight edge in terms of seats.

Until recently I would have predicted that the Tories would - just - have the greater number of seats but possibly not enough to form a minority government. Based on the latest polls I'd probably go for a small Labour lead in terms of seats. Plenty of time for that to change though.

The key factor for both may be those currently saying they will vote UKIP or SNP. The election result may depend on how many of those drift back to the two main parties.

[Filo]

Why have the latest opinion poll not been posted?

Well, the last poll that Mick was so keen to trumpet was Yougov's, so here's their latest poll.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/29/labour-lead-4/

I think you'll find that I tend to vary the polls I report on. In this spirit here is the poll from Opinium after the budget showing a budget bounce as I predicted.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/21/budget-bounce-takes-tories-ahead-of-labour-by-three-points-in-the-polls

Get in.

Now as to the latest Yougov poll. That is the exception that proves the rule. There is a margin for error in polls and this one is obviously a rogue poll. It would be disingenuous of me to only report on rogue polls which is why I ignored it. But seeing as you lefties have mentioned it I felt I should comment.

Sorted.

Thanks for that Mick, much appreciated, can we now treat yougov as rouge pollsters? Or just the polls that don't agree with you?

[IC1967]

Why have the latest opinion poll not been posted?

Well, the last poll that Mick was so keen to trumpet was Yougov's, so here's their latest poll.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/29/labour-lead-4/

I think you'll find that I tend to vary the polls I report on. In this spirit here is the poll from Opinium after the budget showing a budget bounce as I predicted.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/21/budget-bounce-takes-tories-ahead-of-labour-by-three-points-in-the-polls

Get in.

Now as to the latest Yougov poll. That is the exception that proves the rule. There is a margin for error in polls and this one is obviously a rogue poll. It would be disingenuous of me to only report on rogue polls which is why I ignored it. But seeing as you lefties have mentioned it I felt I should comment.

Sorted.

Thanks for that Mick, much appreciated, can we now treat yougov as rouge pollsters? Or just the polls that don't agree with you?

By 'rouge' pollsters are you intimating that they favour Labour because of their affinity with Labour's colour of choice 'red'?

No, I don't think their preferred colour has anything to do with it. Every pollster no matter what colour they prefer has a rogue poll from time to time.

Like I say, I use polls from all the polling companies in an effort to offer a balanced perspective. I'm sure Yougov will be back on track soon. They are going to be polling every day right up to the general election. Let's see what future polls show before anyone starts crowing.