teams competing for 6th place ?

[RobTheRover]

[BillyStubbsTears]

Based on the last 10 games, we are very much in the hunt for 2-6th. At the moment its looking like its going to be very tight with Bradford and Scunthorpe just below the play offs.

If the form of last 10 games continue then the final table will look like this:

Crofty

Looks like we've been having identical thoughts.

I hadn't taken Crewe into account in my calculations - not that it makes a substantive difference.

As I said in the other thread, I'll be surprised if 75 points really does end up being the target. For it to be so requires both us and Bradfird to continue in our current automatic-promotion form for another 16-17 games. Could happen but I doubt it.

[Mr1Croft]

Based on the last 10 games, we are very much in the hunt for 2-6th. At the moment its looking like its going to be very tight with Bradford and Scunthorpe just below the play offs.

If the form of last 10 games continue then the final table will look like this:

Crofty

Looks like we've been having identical thoughts.

I hadn't taken Crewe into account in my calculations - not that it makes a substantive difference.

As I said in the other thread, I'll be surprised if 75 points really does end up being the target. For it to be so requires both us and Bradfird to continue in our current automatic-promotion form for another 16-17 games. Could happen but I doubt it.

Agreed. I'd think 67-70 is looking more a realistic target for 6th place.

I equally don't think Scunthorpe will keep up their remarkable form for the rest of the season.

But in my opinion all it takes is for one of the top 5 to have a slight wobble over 4-5 games and it could blow the play offs wide open.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'd have agreed on the 67-70 points target a week or two back. That's looking a little bit on the low side now.

To get 70 points, we'd need W7 D4 L5 or Bradford would need W7 D5 L5.

Both of those are eminently do-able. I suspect one of those sides will do a bit better than that, and that one or two of Oldham, Gillingham or Scunny will get above 67 points.

On nothing but instinct, I'm plumping for 72 points for 6th place. Which is much closer to average than it was looking just 2 weeks ago. And which makes all my earlier posts on the topic look like ba-baa.

[Dutch Uncle]

BST - as you know I am number one fan of your stats

A few weeks ago, before the Walsall game, I made my own estimate of 72 points for a reasonable shout of a playoff place. We had 36 points from 26 games at that point, so I reckoned we needed 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats from the remaining 20 games as follows:

Wins: Yeovil, Crewe, Colchester, Peterboro, Fleetwood Rochdale at Home and Crawley, Leyton Orient, Gillingham and Coventry Away

Draws: Walsall, Bradford, Scunthorpe Home; Port Vale, Notts Co and Sheff Utd Away

Defeats: Bristol City and Swindon at Home; MK Dons and Preston Away

Then the idea was to track to see how we do against that plan   

So far we are one point down having lost to Walsall

I am certain those results will not happen like that, but for every optimistic result on that plan (Sheff Utd?  Bradford? Gillingham?) there may be pessimistic ones to compensate (Port Vale? Notts Co, any of the 4 planned defeats?)

Of course 72 might not be enough, or 70 might be

FWIW a few weeks ago I was making a plan to track for 54 points to avoid relegation 

[Lifelong supporter]

It's ours to lose now. We have the squad, no excuses. Chesterfield were the threat until Doyle went.

I'm not so sure we do.
Look at the bench on Saturday...Evina, Marosi, Wakefield, Whitehouse.
What happens if we get an injury to Butler or Keegan?
Hopefully, if that happened, we would bring someone in on loan.
We might be okay if we don't get injuries because we can field a decent starting line up.
But I'm still not so sure the squad is strong enough in depth.

[IDM]

You forgot the rest of the bench, Main, Robinson and Razak.  With Copps and McCullough not far off returning (and now Forrester too) we have IMHO a decent squad.  Don't forget Jones won't be far off a bench place, and plenty of folks think Mandeville and McKay are ready for more first team selections.

The squad is as strong now as it has been all season. If only we could have had this squad at the start of the season - but that is another debate completely.

[Jimmydee]

Brian the Blade said a good quote about Chesterfield on radio dee Dah the other night "no Doyle, no goals, no promotion for the Spirites"

[Lifelong supporter]

You forgot the rest of the bench, Main, Robinson and Razak.  With Copps and McCullough not far off returning (and now Forrester too) we have IMHO a decent squad.  Don't forget Jones won't be far off a bench place, and plenty of folks think Mandeville and McKay are ready for more first team selections.

The squad is as strong now as it has been all season. If only we could have had this squad at the start of the season - but that is another debate completely.

IDM, I agree with your comments about if only we could have had this squad at the start of the season.
Bet Dickov does too.
But I don't think it's a balanced squad and I still think we're in trouble if Butler (especially) or Keegan are out for any length of time.
Hope I'm wrong but can't see Jones getting back to how he was, after all his setbacks.

[Mr1Croft]

I'd have agreed on the 67-70 points target a week or two back. That's looking a little bit on the low side now.

To get 70 points, we'd need W7 D4 L5 or Bradford would need W7 D5 L5.

Both of those are eminently do-able. I suspect one of those sides will do a bit better than that, and that one or two of Oldham, Gillingham or Scunny will get above 67 points.

On nothing but instinct, I'm plumping for 72 points for 6th place. Which is much closer to average than it was looking just 2 weeks ago. And which makes all my earlier posts on the topic look like ba-baa.

Perhaps I'm being biased towards us seen as our ppg game ratio is currently 1.5 which would see us finish on 69.

[Sammy Chung was King]

:crying:just checked yeovils next few fixtures 

   
Yeovil v Gillingham   Sat 21 Feb   15:00   
Scunthorpe v Yeovil   Sat 28 Feb   15:00   
Yeovil v Walsall   Tue 3 Mar   19:45   
Yeovil v Oldham   Sat 7 Mar   15:00   
Yeovil v Bristol City   Tue 10 Mar   19:45   
so we can see why they have done the loan business (same as last season) and as you can see they can do a few favours for Rovers starting on Saturday

Yeovil have signed Byron Webster on loan, so that will shore the defence up a bit, they have Hayter and Ugwe up front i think they will take points from some of these.
They will lose to Gillingham
Draw with Walsall
Beat Oldham
Lose to Bristol city

[Mr1Croft]

I'd have agreed on the 67-70 points target a week or two back. That's looking a little bit on the low side now.

To get 70 points, we'd need W7 D4 L5 or Bradford would need W7 D5 L5.

Both of those are eminently do-able. I suspect one of those sides will do a bit better than that, and that one or two of Oldham, Gillingham or Scunny will get above 67 points.

On nothing but instinct, I'm plumping for 72 points for 6th place. Which is much closer to average than it was looking just 2 weeks ago. And which makes all my earlier posts on the topic look like ba-baa.

Perhaps I'm being biased towards us seen as our ppg game ratio is currently 1.5 which would see us finish on 69.

Interesting how 67 turned out to be the points required for 6th. All things considered very low.

[mrfrostsdad]

Aye. And we still couldn't get anywhere near it.
Looking back at this thread, it's amazing how far off the mark people can be