Labour vs Labour

[Glyn_Wigley]

From what was reported, a lot of the stuff during the Referendum campaign that the MPs were unhappy about seemed to have originated from Milne.

[MachoMadness]

By the measure that they are now the largest party at a local level, when the general consensus was that they'd lose a lot of ground. Just discounting 2015 because "Labour got annihilated" doesn't wash, either. They still took some of that ground back despite the PLP and media being convinced of otherwise.

I'd disagree that Labour was facing a united Tory Party in 2012 too - they were actually facing a coalition, by definition a fractious and divided party.

[albie]

Craig Murray gets to the heart of the Labour problem on his blog, internal party democracy;
Craig Murray - Vauntie Cybernat, Former Ambassador, Human Rights Activist

The relevant bit is here:
"The Labour crisis is a result of that party’s lack of internal democracy. In the SNP, every MP and MSP must seek reselection as the candidate for every election. Sitting MSPs and MPS can be and are regularly deposed by party members without fuss.

In the Labour Party, the system has been designed to put in MPs for life. Members have no right to challenge them. An extraordinary number of the right wing MPs were parachuted in from HQ and have no connection whatsoever to the northern constituencies they represent. It is fascinating that two thirds of the Shadow Cabinet members who resigned yesterday ostensibly over Corbyn’s insufficient EU enthusiasm, represent constituencies which voted for Brexit. This might call into some doubt their own campaigning effectiveness."

The present kerfuffle is also about Chilcot Report, which is due next week. It is likely to conclude against Blair/Straw and those who voted for war in Iraq with them.

The Labour Party cannot form another Government, whoever leads it. Scotland has gone, boundary changes lose another 20 plus seats, and it has only a lingering death to look forward to. Better to re-invent a new force on the left, which involves letting go of some old tribalisms and addressing the future. Sad, but necessary.

The discussion on here shows us all why. I posted this before, but it bears repeating;
We need to build a new left. Labour means nothing today | Politics | The Guardian

[BillyStubbsTears]

You want to accept that Labour cannot get back into power? You want to invent a new force on the Left?

Fine. Off you go and do it.

If you're so confident that that is the way forward, either start your own organisation, or put up a prospective Labour leader who campaigns explicitly on that message. One who says: "Vote for me. I cannot win an Election for you because Labour is finished, but I can build a new force on the Left."

If that's what you want, go and do it, with my blessing.

Do NOT do it by having that as a hidden agenda and seeing the collapse of the Labour party as just collateral damage on the way. That seems to be the unspoken plan of the entryists now, just as it was in the early 80s.

[albie]

Billy,

I don't want to accept it any more than you do, but if it is true that Labour cannot form a majority, then what to do?

If you think that Labour can form a government, explain how you think that will be achieved? Changing the leader is one small part of that, but do you really think it is enough.

Politics is now a reality TV game show, in which celebrities compete to earn applause by being more outlandish than the others. Evidence and the truth is discounted to entertainment value.

That is where we are, and I don't like it any more than you. The difference between us is that I don't think you search out the future in the past. The power of the media is shaping debate is not going to change any time soon, and a new Labour leader will be under attack from early days once the chase is on.

I have been a Labour Party supporter since I was a lad, but the world has changed and folk on the left have to move with that change,like it or not.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

Labour has, several times over the years, won a majority of votes and seats ignoring Scotland. It did so in 1945, 1966, 1997, 2001 and 2005. The claim that Labour can never win without Scotland is manifestly false.

That said, that can only happen due to the vagaries of our antiquated political system. I hate that system. It gave Thatcher unchallenged power. It gave Blair unchallenged power. It'll give Johnson unchallenged power.

I would do one very simple thing to re-establish  the credibility and future of both the Left and politics as a whole. I'd make it Labour policy (and shout it loud and clear and remorselessly) to bring in full and meaningful PR. If anything is responsible for the disconnect between people and politics, it is the knowledge that most people's votes in GEs do not count for anything. I'd do away with that and I'd campaign flat out on that issue and that issue alone.

Strip out the old politics. Bring in a system that properly enfranchises EVERYONE in the country. And THEN I'd allow the Labour Party to split into the two factions that it has always been. I'd welcome Corbyn on one side and Cooper on the other being able to openly campaign for policies that they genuinely believe in.

If you REALLY want a re-alignment of our politics, it cannot happen without that move.

If the Referendum did anything, it re-invigorated a sense of control of destiny among voters (whatever you think of the result). We need to harness that feeling and use it productively. Let our politics grow up. Destroy the artificial marriages of convenience that are the existing Labour and Conservative parties. And once we've done that, we might get a stronger sense of civic engagement.

Nothing else really matters in politics at the moment, except re-connecting the bridge between politics and the people. So I'd have a 1 page manifesto as Labour. Vote for us. We will form a caretaker Govt. We will introduce a Bill to bring in a genuinely representative voting system. And then we will dissolve Parliament.

You want radicalism? There is the radical solution.

[albie]

Yep...I agree with nearly all of that BST.

Thing is, Labour has stood against PR voting, and it is still not party policy.

The point about Scotland is not that Labour could win in the past without Scottish votes, but that it cannot do so now. Take into account the boundary changes and it is a big ask, much more difficult going forward.

I still think people are diverted by the Corbyn issue from the real questions facing Labour. To me, it should not matter so much who is the leader, but what policies they follow on behalf of the party.

Interesting article from Suzanne Moore;
The bloodletting over Jeremy Corbyn is sad – the left is stuck in old binaries | Suzanne Moore | Opinion | The Guardian

I don't agree with all of it, but I think she is on the right track with the overall critique.

[MachoMadness]

Reports now stating that the PLP are desperately scrabbling round for a credible candidate who opposed the Iraq war for when Chilcot lands next week. Makes the story that Corbyn is hanging on until Chilcot a little more interesting...

[Copps is Magic]

Be tough for Eagle then won't it given her voting record on the subject.

[The Red Baron]

Be tough for Eagle then won't it given her voting record on the subject.

Eagle? Is that the best they can do?

[The Red Baron]

From what was reported, a lot of the stuff during the Referendum campaign that the MPs were unhappy about seemed to have originated from Milne.

"King's Evil Counsellors," Glyn.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Remind me. Is this supposed to be about the future of the Labour Party or retribution for the past?

[MachoMadness]

Be tough for Eagle then won't it given her voting record on the subject.

Eagle? Is that the best they can do?

To be fair I hardly expect Labour to put forward their best bets at this stage. Whoever gets the job is going to be the head of an unelectable mess of a party so any politician with genuine PM ambitions isn't going to take it. The ramifications are going to rumble on for a while and whoever gets the job will be on a hiding to nothing as they paper over all the cracks.

[The Red Baron]

Be tough for Eagle then won't it given her voting record on the subject.

Eagle? Is that the best they can do?

To be fair I hardly expect Labour to put forward their best bets at this stage. Whoever gets the job is going to be the head of an unelectable mess of a party so any politician with genuine PM ambitions isn't going to take it. The ramifications are going to rumble on for a while and whoever gets the job will be on a hiding to nothing as they paper over all the cracks.

There's some evidence that happened last time with people like Umunna and Jarvis deciding to hang back. Thing is, if they just replace one poor leader (who at least has the virtue of being popular with party members) with another then it makes you wonder if all the aggro is worth it.

There's also the risk that the party becomes irrelevant, of course.

[MachoMadness]

Both of your last two points are true, of course. I was just looking for some semblance of logic in ousting someone who, even with question marks over his wider appeal, still has the full support of the members and donors, and replacing him with someone who has the support of nobody - including her own CLP.

[Donnywolf]

.... if they let everyone pay £3 again and Vote as a Member of the Party then it will end the same way

IC1967 was I remember saying on here that he was doing just that and I remember at the time there was a huge outcry about "voting irregularities" so if they have not fixed both those "flaws" I expect the same result

I dug this Thread out and IC1967 was first off the blocks but by god it makes a good read all the way through

http://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=253222.msg554813#msg554813

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

IT'S tempting for any Tory to do that. Thankfully I'm a bit more mature.

Cameron was clever today criticising Corbyn thus making it another step harder for him to resign.

Eagle won't win I wouldn't think, she's not a strong enough candidate. Mind Jeremy has a lot of support at activist levels, but they can't see that doesn't translate to the big vote.

I don't often agree with bst politically but he's right here that labour is becoming a party that talks only to itself. The other parties will all benefit.

[Sammy Chung was King]

The people who voted labour, in the last election, should be the one's electing the new leader, after all whoever it is, is representing those voters. Take the decision out of mp and union hands.

[Mike_F]

In a current poll on Wikileaks' twitter, the percentage support for the various candidates in the Labour leadership race is as follows:

Corbyn 66%
Umuna 14%
Eagle 11%
Cooper 9%

I'm not drawing any conclusions from that (who is voting in the poll, what do they want for Labour in terms of good/bad etc.) but it's quite a majority that Corbyn has in the wider populace outside of the PLP bubble.

My two penn'orth FWIW is that I agree with Billy in terms of the need for electoral reform. I've believed that this is required for all my adult life as the FPTP system is grossly misrepresentative of the will of the electorate. Yes, it would mean a few more "nasties" getting a seat but in practice it would lead to a much more balanced and broader-reaching government which is desperately required to re-engage the regions outside of London/home counties.

My personal view on Corbyn is that it's refreshing to have someone campaigning on points of principle and why he believes his principles will have a positive effect rather than simply mudslinging at the opposition. The idea is right and there is clearly a high level of support for him out there which grates against the PLP establishment. Unfortunately he lacks the mettle required to be a statesman on the world stage and Putin would have him on toast. Nevertheless I would hope to see him retain the leadership and do better than the pundits keep predicting as it may force something of a cultural change in UK politics.

Billy, I hear you loud and clear with your warnings from the past and generally I would agree with your pragmatic approach. Usually, I believe things are cyclical and history is the best barometer of future predictions however I genuinely believe that something has fundamentally changed since your idealistic days of the early 80s.

It's criminal to underestimate the power of social media in disseminating messages amongst peer groups regardless of their accuracy. I was a remainer but thought most of the way through the referendum campaign that leave would win by a narrow margin purely based on the groundswell of opinion on social media. I changed my prediction to a small-margin victory for remain based on the bookies' odds and a slice of hope.

NB to put some perspective on where I'm coming form I've only voted Labour once in my life which was at the last GE. I'm a lifelong Liberal Democrat voter but as per much of the party's grass-roots support I wanted to bloody the nose of the Clegg regime as I felt that they had failed us in their weakness throughout the coalition period.

Within days of a Tory majority taking hold it became self-evident how much nastiness and prejudice the LD's had managed to prevent during the power-sharing phase but they made the fatal error of not shouting about it at the time.

All anyone remembers s the broken pledge on tuition fees. Had they framed it as "in a coalition we had to concede on this point in order to win on our challenges to welfare cuts, regional support etc." they would've fared much better and retained more support.

As it is, I voted against them and along with around 10k others joined the party the next day to reform from within. I firmly believe that the core values of fairness and equality are as important (if not more so given the post-referendum rise in reported racism) as ever.

Bob mentioned on page 1 of this thread that it's a long road back for the LD's after that broken pledge but if they can unite the floating remainers and even recruit some of the regretful Brexit voters, I can foresee the green shoots of recovery at the next GE.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mike

The tuition fees thing was not the issue for me. The LD's historic mistake wasn't about that. It was far more fundamental.

They campaigned in 2010 on an anti-Austerity ticket. Then, within days of the Election, they had signed up to Austerity lock, stock and barrel.

That is the biggest single mistake that any political party has made since the War. That made them the fall guys for the totally unnecessary 2.5 years of lost growth. The OBR's own figures indicate that we lost something between £100-250bn as a direct result of Austerity between 2010-2013.

 It was the LDs who allowed this to happen. They didn't have to do. They could have drawn red lines and let the Tories form a minority Govt if they wouldn't accept them. But they weren't strong enough to do that. Clegg had the frighteners put on him by Mervyn King and he folded. He made up an incoherent story about why he had changed his mind and betrayed the millions of people who voted for him on a false premise. You don't recover from that. Not for a generation or more. That one decision crucified the LDs and it led us directly to the state we are currently in.

[BobG]

What odds would I get on UKIP being the second largest party in England after the next election? It sounds daft. But I'm not sure it is all that daft right now. This ought to be THE time for the LD's. But, and I really am sorry Jonathan, they have nowhere near paid the price of their infamy yet. Their vote will go up. It can hardly do otherwise with Labour imploding. But the sexy party is UKIP. we've seen very clearly just how ready disgruntled Labour voters are to vote their way. 69% voted out in Donny.

BobG

[Copps is Magic]

What is the raison d'être of the UK Indepdence party now we have achieved Independence. It surely can't go on as the same party particularly given people were funding it on one issue.

[Copps is Magic]

Also worth noting that the Green party have offered to form a progressive alliance with Corbyn's labour.

[Donnywolf]

Be tough for Eagle then won't it given her voting record on the subject.

Eagle? Is that the best they can do?

Eerie choice .... but probably the most talon-ted MP they have

[idler]

I think that even a lot of Brexiters are so fed up of Farage their popularity will drop. The BNP will also show itself up and not get as many protest votes.
Proportional representation in some shape or form would give a disillusioned electorate the chance to make each vote count. The LDs would possibly then do better.

[Mike_F]

Billy, I'm broadly in agreement regarding the capitulation of Clegg. He was a king-maker turned scullery maid as he wasn't strong enough to really show courage in his principles. He was clearly scared of being recorded by the history books as the bloke who went into a coalition which collapsed within months leading to at best another GE.

That being the case he shouldn't have entertained the prospect of a coalition in the first place but he pissed his pants at the prospect of "power". I genuinely believe he thought that from a senior position in the government he would give liberal values a stronger and more widely-reported platform but he was out of his depth and outnumbered. The party needed a short, sharp shock and the grassroots rebellion gave them one.

On the subject of austerity, I believe that the severity of cuts imposed by Gideon as soon as he had the unfettered power of a majority Tory government behind him is indicative of the influence of the LD coalition in staving off some of the most punitive austerity measures. Their mistake was not making enough of this. It was assumed that the rise in personal PAYE allowance would be credited as a great leap forward for low-paid workers but in reality it's not really registered in any significant way with most people.

Bob, regarding the "price of their infamy" I'm not so sure. Versus the competitive set their relative anonymity of the last couple of years has probably done no harm as the quiet rebuilding goes on.

Whilst I do have fairly significant concerns about Farron's personal religious convictions, he has presented a level-headed and empathetic approach which seems to be working in re-engaging not only the sandals and socks brigade but also the disenfranchised centre-left youth.

I joined the party on a back-to-basics fairness, equality and compassion ticket and I don't feel let down at all. Again, comparatively with the "big two" the stability and togetherness is outstanding.

[Donnywolf]

I think that even a lot of Brexiters are so fed up of Farage their popularity will drop. The BNP will also show itself up and not get as many protest votes.
Proportional representation in some shape or form would give a disillusioned electorate the chance to make each vote count. The LDs would possibly then do better.

I used to chuckle at the Liberals cries on behalf of PR - and I am sure they had John Cleese doing an advert on their behalf. Just because you cant win I used to think !

I have supposedly got wiser as I have grown older and now I have been an advocate of PR in some format for the last 15 years. I see the unfairness of the whole system now and I know what they wanted AND why they and we as an Electorate should get it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mike

Unfortunately, the LDs DIDN'T blunt the NET effect of Austerity measures. Yes there were some positive micro-economic measures that the LDs championed. But the Coalition Agreement was not for watered down MACRO-economic fiscal policy. It implemented the full, broad Tory spending cut plan.

If you want to know why we voted Out last week, take a look at Fig1 here.
 http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea020.pdf

For nearly 50 years [1] our GDP per head has risen steadily. Every time there's been a blip, it's returned to trend. Because we KNOW how to respond to booms and recessions. Even when Thatcher had her mad monetarism experiment that worsened the 1981 recession, she ditched it within 12 months and went back to conventional economics.

Not in 2010. In 2010, we were just starting to recover from the worst of the Great Crash. And then the LDs gave the Tories carte blanche to run with Austerity for 30 months. And just LOOKwhat they did.

At core, that is why we voted out. Because the social pact has been ripped up. Govt dropped the baton and drove the recovery into a wall. And no-ones been getting any better off for nearly a decade. And then Farage and Johnson and Gove scream that the reason you're not getting better off is because of them f**king Poles.

May 2010. Nick f**king Clegg.

[Filo]

I voted to leave, I've no regrets and would do so again tomorrow, I did think that the Country as a whole would vote to remain. Whats clear to me regarding the voting is that it appears the referendum has been used as a protest vote against the establishment in this Country, every persons vote counted as oppesed to the first past the post system used in general elections, people are fed up of self serving polititians that have no interest in the common man, and even now, in the padt week the farce continues and the Country is in limbo because they are all jostling for their own position rather than looking after the interests of the Country

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

Which is exactly why the push should be full AV now.

Our politics is totally broken. It needs fixing from bottom up.