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Author Topic: Computer that crunches the numbers to determine the final League Two positions  (Read 1710 times)

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South East Rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 551
Time for the new special computer that crunches the numbers to determine the final League Two positions for 2016/17.

Last season the Octopus feature was a regular feature for the Premier League, but whilst it might be a late arrival for League Two - well better late than never - it might have been having its tentacles given a Brazilian I don't know.

Then again I still don't know why I call a number crunching supercomputer an Octopus but some things are probably best left unasked.

In any event here are the updated League Two predictions for the season of 2016/17 after most sides have played at least 31 games of the campaign.

Who goes down?! Who is the current favourite to lift the title this year?

Well you don't have to guess.

With most playing at least 31 games in the League Two season of 2016/17, the current favourite to lift the title continues to be Doncaster Rovers, with Plymouth Argyle and Carlisle United pushing them reasonably close in second and third place.

The Play Off spots are also pretty nailed on if the predictions are to be believed - Luton Town, Portsmouth, Exeter City and Wycombe Wanderers take their places in the hopes for Wembley success - but Colchester United narrowly miss out.

At the other end of the table Notts County go down to the National League on goal difference - tied on points with Newport County - and they are joined by Leyton Orient in bottom spot.

The one thing that can't be denied now we've past the half way point of the season is a number of clubs will now be very disappointed with where they find themselves (if they put any stock in predictions) and will be looking for a speedy change in form as the second half of the season progresses.

Prediction wise there are a number in midtable who will be delighted with their finish if it plays out like this, but clearly others will be horrified with how they are expected to fall off the pace come May.

But predictions are a reflection on the season so far, and absolutely nothing more.

                                     P   W   D   L   F   A   +/-   Pts
C   Doncaster Rovers   46   26   12   8   80   47   +33   90
P   Plymouth Argyle   46   26   9   11   68   44   +24   87
P   Carlisle United           46   20   21   5   75   58   +17   81
4   Luton Town           46   21   17   8   64   36   +28   80
5   Portsmouth           46   24   8   14   60   35   +25   80
6   Exeter City           46   20   14   12   65   44   +21   74
7   Wycombe Wanderers46   20   12   14   52   46   +6   72
8   Colchester United   46   19   14   13   66   52   +14   71
9   Blackpool                   46   17   16   13   59   41   +18   67
10   Stevenage           46   20   6   20   67   65   +2   66
11   Grimsby Town           46   17   13   16   50   48   +2   64
12   Mansfield Town   46   16   14   16   50   50   0   62
13   Cambridge United   46   15   15   16   53   51   +2   60
14   Barnet                   46   13   21   12   53   56   -3   60
15   Morecambe           46   15   15   16   55   63   -8   60
16   Crawley Town            46   16   11   19   50   63   -13   59
17   Crewe Alexandra   46   14   13   19   43   57   -14   55
18   Yeovil Town           46   13   13   20   38   51   -13   52
19   Accrington Stanley   46   12   12   22   40   58   -18   48
20   Hartlepool United   46   9   17   20   51   75   -24   44
21   Cheltenham Town   46   9   16   21   44   62   -18   43
22   Newport County   46   9   14   23   47   67   -20   41
R   Notts County           46   11   8   27   46   84   -38   41
R   Leyton Orient            46   8   13   25   45   68   -23   37
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Read more: http://www.mansfield.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=481410#ixzz4ZQCJV01v



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Copps is Magic

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8699
Don't know what methodology they've used but 4th and 5th both getting that amount of points would be pretty exceptional.

The Red Baron

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 16127
Don't know what methodology they've used but 4th and 5th both getting that amount of points would be pretty exceptional.

They have extrapolated previous results. I'd expect 4th bottom to be 46-47 so I agree some of the points tallies up the table are a few points too high.

idler

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 10715
In the absence of BST I won't trust anything until Dutch Uncle has had some input.
I'm sure that he will have a slant on it.
I know that a win is only worth three points but losing three against Plymouth is far more damaging than losing three against anyone else.
I know that things average out a bit but it would be nice to have some daylight between us when we play them.

Dutch Uncle

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  • Posts: 6686
You are very kind Idler, but IMHO there is not much I (or anyone) can say. These things stand or fall on the quality of predictions of individual results, and IMHO this year there is not much that can be confidently said. A team's form now will often not be the same in 6 or 8 matches time, and the last few matches may see a team desperately needing a result playing against a team with nothing to play for and a result against form often occurs. Also this year, with the exception of goalkeepers, no more loans are allowed except from outside of the league - so injuries may become more important and that cannot be predicted.

For what it is worth I think there is a good chance more than 81 points will be required for 3rd place, and more than 72 for a playoff place, and almost certainly more than 41 to avoid relegation.

I think this should be treated as just a bit of good clean fun, but certainly worth looking back on at the end of the season.

CantleyRed

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 318
Never mind the analysis, Brian, The Reds are going up!

 

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