Minimum points required

[donnygeoff]

 Just been checking and the top four maximum points possible are:
Rovers 102, Plymouth 98, Portsmouth 92 and Luton 90,

Assuming the three teams apart from Rovers win all their games we need 91 points to be assured of third place. 

Teams will drop points if for no other reason than that there are a lot of matches between top 8 teams.

Cannot see fourth place getting more than 85 points. Many may say even less.

Hence we need a minimum of 14 points from the next 10 games. 5 wins out of 10 will do nicely thank you

[Mac the hooped man]

at risk of repeating myself,    we ae 14 pts plus golas above 4th place.  They, stevenage has just taken 25 out of 30 points,  they odds of them repeating that are zero, everyone else in the top 6 are dropping points all over the place..,  so...
if we consevatley give the 4th place team 20 pts out of 30, that means we need 2 more wins plus our goal difference to get auto.  3 more wins should completely seal it!  Unless of course that Stevenage can end the season with 16 wins out of the last 18 games of the season???  If they do that they deserve the title!

[IDM]

Also assuming we beat Plymouth then 8 wins from our final 10 games will guarantee finishing top.

As long as other teams drop points, so we can afford to as well.  No other team outside those 4 can possibly get 90 points or more.

I agree that 85 will be enough for promotion, and 90-92 for winning the league.

Perhaps this thread can become a sticky, with the maximum points available per team being changed after each round of fixtures?

[Forum Admin]

Perhaps this thread can become a sticky, with the maximum points available per team being changed after each round of fixtures?

Done

[Dutch Uncle]

A bit of statistical analysis (in the sad absence of BST):

There have been a total of 21 seasons at Tier 4 since 1995-96 when there have been 46 games, 3 Automatic promotion places, and 4 play-off positions.

For those 21 seasons I have calculated the Mean, Median, Maximum and Minimum number of points for each of the top 4 positions. The Median is the number for which there are equal instances of a total higher or lower, so in this case 10 seasons with a lower and 10 seasons with a higher number of points. This is often a better measure than the mean (i.e. average) which can be skewed by one or two excessively high seasons.

Position     Mean     Median     Minimum     Maximum
  1               89.9         87              83             102
  2               84.7         83              79               97
  3               81.5         81              75               88
  4               78.3         78              72               85

Looking at that you would normally say 87 points for first place 81 for third. My own personal opinion is that those numbers might not be too far from this season's requirement. I do think second place will have more than 83, and third maybe more than 81, but fourth at 78 might be close.

From a purely mathematical point of view, Luton can gain the fourth highest theoretical maximum points with 90, so worst case is that we currently need another 19 for automatic promotion - that 19 being a combination of points won by us and lost by Luton (and potentially others).

The Countdown is on!

 

[RedJ]

Fourth at 78 would also support CiM's collation.

[Dutch Uncle]

After tonight's results, the countdown is now down to 14 points required fro automatic. That is a combiation of points won by us and points dropped by Luton (or others)

 

[idler]

It's looking good, we just need to hold our nerve better than the rest.

[IDM]

Maximum points each team can now get individually:

Doncaster   102
Plymouth   96
Portsmouth  92
Carlisle  86
Luton  88
Stevenage   85
Exeter   84

This confirms 14 more points for us to reach 89 will guarantee automatic promotion.  1.55 points per game when we currently have 2.03 ppg.

I am optimistic!!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Odds well in our favour.

Potentially we could get promoted as early as next Sunday against Plymouth (unlikely).

That would need 2 Rovers wins, 3 Luton defeats (their game in hand next week) and 2 defeats for the other play off teams - very unlikely.

A win on Saturday should almost seal a play off place and mean a lot of teams would have to win every game - in fact given teams will play each other, it may confirm it (may try to model that if I have a bit of downtime).

[RobTheRover]

2 more wins will see us promoted in my view.  4th place will not get to 82.

Win at Orient then beat Plymouth on the following Sunday live on TV and the first of the Champers can be popped.  then we can knuckle down on the next prize of securing the title with the pressure off.

As coaches say, relax and play.

[IDM]

For what its worth, and I loathe predicting too much, I think promotion vs Mansfield, Champs vs Exeter.

[DearneValleyRover]

I've been saying anything above 78 points will be enough since January and the form of the teams below us has done nothing to change my mind.

[IDM]

You may be right, but we won't know that until way after we hit 78 points..

[hoolahoop]

I think Champions is ALREADY in the bag . Now to recruit for Division 1

[Dutch Uncle]

Countdown to promotion now mathematically down to 9 points, a combination of points we win and Luton (or others) lose

 

[IDM]

Maximum points each team can now get..

Doncaster   102
Plymouth   96
Portsmouth  89
Stevenage   85
Luton  86
Carlisle  83
Exeter   82

So the MAXimum points required is now 87, two less than after the last round of fixtures..

3 wins from 8 confirms promotion, 6 the title if that includes Plymouth..

[dknward2]

Doncaster   102
Plymouth   96
Portsmouth  89
Stevenage   85
Luton  86
Carlisle  83
Exeter   82

So the minimum points required is now 87, two less than after the last round of fixtures..

3 wins from 8 confirms promotion, 6 the title..

At this moment will only get better

[Mac the hooped man]

So one more game scrubbed off, and the points that 4th can get using their season average is 73.8,  as we are on 78 they need to maintain that average then get 2 more wins all in the last 8 games..   plus a small matter of us having to lose every game as well...
Next Sunday potentially could take us 20 pts clear of 4th with 7 games to go, and I'm sure I'll still be reading, we need 3 more wins to be sure..   relax boys and girls,  we are already promoted   :-)

[Mac the hooped man]

Doncaster   102
Plymouth   96
Portsmouth  89
Stevenage   85
Luton  86
Carlisle  83
Exeter   82

So the minimum points required is now 87, two less than after the last round of fixtures..

3 wins from 8 confirms promotion, 6 the title..

How can the minimum required be 87?, 4th could quite easily finish up on 75pts, using their current season averages.   So the minimum would be 76 needed.   If everyone stops assuming every team wins every game till the end of the season, it becomes so much less stressful ...wondering if we can cross that line..

[IDM]

It would be a rolling goatf**k of gigantic proportion if we blew promotion now..  The 9 points required assumes the team who can get the most for 4th place (Luton) wins their last 9 games...

[IDM]

sorry, my bad, the MAXIMUM required would be 87 points.. I'll amend my post.. We could have already got the minimum!

[IDM]

I was right, I think.. As the table stands now, the minimum points to guarantee promotion is 87.. We may well get more, but 87 is the lowest that will guarantee promotion.

As soon as a rival team drops points, this minimum level will go down, as it has from 91 to 89 to 87 after each of the last set of games..

[Mac the hooped man]

sorry, my bad, the MAXIMUM required would be 87 points.. I'll amend my post.. We could have already got the minimum!

Well said that man,  we.need to put this will we won't we promotion talk to one side,  and just concentrate on the job in hand, which is bringing that title home!!

[les@donr]

82

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

77 was enough in one season but normally it's 85-86. Two wins for sure will do it I think.  But I don't see any reasons to worry for promotion.  For the title, well next week will tell us that answer. Win and we can relax.

[Mac the hooped man]

This is one of those seasons where a low score is needed..  100% certain...

[IDM]

After tonight's fixtures...

Maximum points each team can now get..

Doncaster   102
Plymouth   96
Portsmouth  89
Stevenage   85
Luton  84
Carlisle  83
Exeter   82

As it stands, 86 points guarantees promotion, so we have "gained" a point towards our target without kicking a ball...

8 to go..  After Saturday before our game on Sunday, that requirement may be even less..

[i_ateallthepies]

Over the 8 remaining games that requirement is certain to become even less.  Even if we lost every one of our remaining games Stevenage would have to average better than 2 points per game in their last 8, only one team in the whole table have done that.  We almost certainly have enough already, one more win and we're home and hosed.

[dknward2]

Until it's mathematically possible for us not to finish 4th we need to keep going, then we keep going until it's not possible for us to finish 2nd, then we can relax which maybe in about 4 games but until it's certain let's just keep going.