Minimum points required

[IDM]

Agreed, as it did last night.  The guaranteed promotion target assumes the teams that can finish 4th win all their games.  They probably won't, but if one of them does they will probably deserve a promotion spot..

After this weekend it is conceivable we would then only need one more win.

Let's wait and see..

[Mac the hooped man]

Is it possible to get odds on a points tally needed for promotion? 

If so, my flag is nailed firmly to the mast that says 78pts!!!

[Bentley Bullet]

If Rovers win tomorrow, they're guaranteed a play-off place!

Team           P         Pts       MAX PTS


1 Doncaster    38        78           102

2 Plymouth     38          72             96

3 Portsmouth   39      68             89
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Stevenage   39      62             83

5  Blackpool   39      60             81

6 Luton Town   39      60             81

7 Exeter City   39      59             80
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Carlisle         39      59             80

9 Mansfield      39           58              79

10 Colchester    39            57             78

[IDM]

True, also, win tomorrow means that winning at Grimsby will give us 84 points and guaranteed promotion.

Again that target has come down, so realistically the minimum points required for promotion is likely to reduce even further with other teams dropping points.

However, with our game tomorrow and then the Grimsby match starting early, we could hit 84 points and be guaranteed promotion before any of the other contenders (except Plymouth of course) get to kick a ball in anger...

6 points from 8 games,.. we don't even need to win tomorrow...

[drfchound]

If we do win tomorrow there is virtually no chance of Plymouth catching us.
Without a doubt, we are already promoted ( I know the maths don't agree) but no way will anyone from fourth down catch us now.

[Bristol Red Rover]

I adapted this from the Plymouth forum, pretty neat visual way of seeing how things stand and can be.

Coloured is current points, black is max points, and the splodgy one on our row is the mathematical promotion point.

################################################## Donny +31
############################################ Argyle +18
##################################### Portsmouth +26

############################### Stevenage +12
############################# Blackpool +21
############################# Luton +19
############################ Exeter +16

############################ Carlisle -2
########################### Mansfield +5
########################### Colchester +4
######################## Wycombe 0
########################## Cambridge +6

[Standanista]

Good analysis, BRR.

These are the number of points it's taken to win the league, get automatic promotion and get in the play-offs in every League 2/Nationwide 3 season going back to when we last won it in 2003/04:

Season   Top   3rd   7th

2015/16   99   85   75
2014/15   94   85   71
2013/14   84   81   71
2012/13   83   78   69
2011/12   93   84   72
2010/11   86   80   68
2009/10   93   82   72
2008/09   85   78   69
2007/08   97   88   78
2006/07   89   85   71
2005/06   86   81   66
2004/05   83   80   72
2003/04   92   81   74

Average   89.5   82.2   71.4

[Bristol Red Rover]

Update after Plymouth

############################################### Donny +30
############################################ Argyle +19
##################################### Portsmouth +26

############################### Stevenage +12
############################# Blackpool +21
############################# Luton +19
############################ Exeter +16

############################ Carlisle -2
########################### Mansfield +5
########################### Colchester +4
######################## Wycombe 0
########################## Cambridge +6

[Bristol Red Rover]

Good analysis, BRR.

These are the number of points it's taken to win the league, get automatic promotion and get in the play-offs in every League 2/Nationwide 3 season going back to when we last won it in 2003/04:....

As an addition to that, here's what it would have taken to be a point above 2nd, 4th and 8th.

Season   Top   3rd   7th

2015/16   87   86   70
2014/15   90   85   69
2013/14   82   77   63
2012/13   80   77   68
2011/12   89   84   71
2010/11   82   80   69
2009/10   84   74   71
2008/09   80   79   69
2007/08   93   83   70
2006/07   89   85   72
2005/06   84   79   64
2004/05   81   79   73
2003/04   89   82   75

Average   85.4   80.8   69.5

[Standanista]

Nice work again, BRR.  At 7 games out there are still loads of variables I guess but this stuff will get increasingly relevant as the final run in keeps tightening up in terms of games played.  End of the day, draw every game from hereon in (or equivalent points) and we're home and dry for promotion.

[Standanista]

To be honest, it will take a cataclysmic F*** Up to not get promoted from this baseline, but we would have said the same last season at Christmas about getting relegated.  Football can be a funny old game, as the prophet Cloughie may have once said.

[balbyrover]

To be honest, it will take a cataclysmic F*** Up to not get promoted from this baseline, but we would have said the same last season at Christmas about getting relegated.  Football can be a funny old game, as the prophet Cloughie may have once said.

Last season was a collapse but this would be a million times worse if we didn't get promoted this season.
We've probably already got enough points.

[RedJ]

If we do our bit Saturday we can still go up with a Stevenage defeat and Luton draw, I think.

[drfchound]

Not a snowball in hell chance of us not getting promoted now.

[drfchound]

If we do our bit Saturday we can still go up with a Stevenage defeat and Luton draw, I think.

IF we win and Stevenage lose we will be promoted.
A Stevenage draw would leave them having to make up an enormous goal difference to get past us if we lost our last six and they won their last six.

[IDM]

6 points it still is.

If we perform like we did on Sunday but without a repeat goalkeeping display, we will get them easily.

[ravenrover]

I would gladly lose the champions bet I have as long as we go up, surely we can't fail now

[drfchound]

Raven, don't worry.
We are as good as promoted.
No way will anyone push us out of the top three.

[Lesonthewest]

Long odds but victory at Grimsby & no wins for those in the play off spots & just outside will see us promoted come Saturday teatime.

[RedJ]

Only if Stevenage lose.

[IDM]

relax, we have 7 games left..  And it IS different to last season, and to 2013/14!!

[ravenrover]

Using the last 10 matches played and the last 5
                     w    l   d pts       w   l   d   pts       
Rovers         4    2  4  16       3   1   1   10
Ply                4    3  3  15       3   1   1   10
Ports            6    2  2  20       4   1   0   12
Stev              7    1  2  23       3   1   1   10
Black            5    1  4  19       4   0   1   13
Luton            3    2  5  14       0   2   3     3
Exe                2    3  5  11       1   2   2     5
POINTS PER GAME
                      PPG (10)       PPG (5)
Rovers             1.6                 2
Ply                    1.5                 2
Port                  2                    2.4
Steve               2.3                 2
Black               1.9                 2.6
Luton               1.4                 0.6
Exe                   1.1                 1

So using these averages end of season points in next 7 games
                 Last 10                     Last 5
             Current  pts     Final      Current   pts   Final
Rov          78       11.2      89          78         14       92
Ply           75       10.5      85          78         14       89
Port         68       14          82         68          16.8   85
Steve       62       16.1      78         62          14       76
Black       60       13.3      73         60          18.2    78
Luton      60         9.8       70         60          4.2      64
Exe          59         7.7       67         59          7         66

Like all stats means absolutely nothing but I enjoyed doing it but wheres BST when we need him?

[RedJ]

Win tomorrow and that could do it. We won't know until later in the day of course.

[IDM]

As it stands, 3 more points is enough.. maybe less by 4.55 today!

[idler]

Sounds good!
The lads must be over the moon after that display.
It's a shame one of those goals didn't come last week but it keeps Plymouth and Pompey dreading a slip.

[Mac the hooped man]

It's beer time,  78pts was enough fellas, 81 is just icing on the cake.  Rtid

[Bristol Red Rover]

Update:

############################################ Donny +34
###################################### Argyle +18
################################## Portsmouth +28

############################ Stevenage +13
########################## Luton +20
######################### Exeter +17
######################### Carlisle 0

####################### Blackpool +20
##################### Mansfield +4
##################### Wycombe +2
####################### Cambridge +7
##################### Colchester +2

[Bentley Bullet]

Worst scenario finish is now 5th........

Team           P         Pts       MAX PTS


1 Doncaster    40        81             99

2 Plymouth     40         75             93

3 Portsmouth 40               71             89
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Stevenage   40      65             83

5  Luton Town 40      63             81
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
 6 Exeter City  40      62             80

7 Carlisle        40      62             80
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Blackpool       40      60             78

9 Mansfield    40           58              76

[RedJ]

That would take a monumental collapse.

[jonnydog]

That would take a monumental collapse.

We've suffered worse... last year!!