Brexit Negotiations

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

No. What the EU is saying is: "We have a responsibility to 450million people. YOUR choice to leave is potentially going to have some very, very seriously negative consequences for some of those. Leaving is YOUR choice, not ours. If there are seriously negative consequences for you Brits, then we're very sorry about that. Maybe you should have considered that before you voted to leave. Now, let's sort out how we are going to mitigate the worst outcomes for the EU citizens. And then we'll be perfectly happy to talk about how to help your economy not fall off a cliff in 16 months time."

Is that unreasonable? I think it's perfectly reasonable.

If my neighbour decided to smash all his windows, chuck the glass over the hedge, then ask me to help him replace his windows, I think I'd be within my rights to ask him to sort out the mess in my garden first. If he complained that he hadn't realised how cold he was going to be in the winter, and I was being unfair, I doubt I'd change my stance.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's also a whispered sub-text.

"What's that Mrs May? You say we can't come to any agreement on the Big Three issues? Because if you give any ground whatsoever, it'll tear apart the Tory party? Oh dear! That's a shame isn't it? We thought the whole idea of the Referendum was to sort out this split in your Tory Party. Hey! Maybe you should call a General Election and get a strong mandate in Parliament to face down your mad right wing? What's that? You tried it and you utterly f**ked it up by being unable to function like an adult in public? Oh dear!

"What's that Mrs May? You want us to forget about those three issues for now, and start talking about how WE are going to help YOU? That's a good one Mrs May. You British and your sense of humour! Ha-ha-ha-ha!"

[wesisback]

There's also a whispered sub-text.

"What's that Mrs May? You say we can't come to any agreement on the Big Three issues? Because if you give any ground whatsoever, it'll tear apart the Tory party? Oh dear! That's a shame isn't it? We thought the whole idea of the Referendum was to sort out this split in your Tory Party. Hey! Maybe you should call a General Election and get a strong mandate in Parliament to face down your mad right wing? What's that? You tried it and you utterly f**ked it up by being unable to function like an adult in public? Oh dear!

"What's that Mrs May? You want us to forget about those three issues for now, and start talking about how WE are going to help YOU? That's a good one Mrs May. You British and your sense of humour! Ha-ha-ha-ha!"

Remember when you were calling for Corbyns head?

[idler]

Filo

No. What the EU is saying is: "We have a responsibility to 450million people. YOUR choice to leave is potentially going to have some very, very seriously negative consequences for some of those. Leaving is YOUR choice, not ours. If there are seriously negative consequences for you Brits, then we're very sorry about that. Maybe you should have considered that before you voted to leave. Now, let's sort out how we are going to mitigate the worst outcomes for the EU citizens. And then we'll be perfectly happy to talk about how to help your economy not fall off a cliff in 16 months time."

Is that unreasonable? I think it's perfectly reasonable.

If my neighbour decided to smash all his windows, chuck the glass over the hedge, then ask me to help him replace his windows, I think I'd be within my rights to ask him to sort out the mess in my garden first. If he complained that he hadn't realised how cold he was going to be in the winter, and I was being unfair, I doubt I'd change my stance.

Maybe if the EU had tried harder to make us stay when negotiating with Cameron the referendum would have had a different outcome.
The whole EU policy seems to be melding into a federal state.
That is what I voted against but seems to be growing even more likely now.

[Filo]

There's also a whispered sub-text.

"What's that Mrs May? You say we can't come to any agreement on the Big Three issues? Because if you give any ground whatsoever, it'll tear apart the Tory party? Oh dear! That's a shame isn't it? We thought the whole idea of the Referendum was to sort out this split in your Tory Party. Hey! Maybe you should call a General Election and get a strong mandate in Parliament to face down your mad right wing? What's that? You tried it and you utterly f**ked it up by being unable to function like an adult in public? Oh dear!

"What's that Mrs May? You want us to forget about those three issues for now, and start talking about how WE are going to help YOU? That's a good one Mrs May. You British and your sense of humour! Ha-ha-ha-ha!"

I agree that the Govenment and people witin the Government are putting their own interests above the intersts of the Country

[BillyStubbsTears]

Idler
So you've not seen Macron proposing a multi-grouping for Europe? A well-integrated inner core set of countries, with others around the periphery opting out of various aspects?

Why care what Juncker says? He's utterly irrelevant.

Filo. Yes. Exactly. So they are no negotiating in good faith. So what do you expect the EU to do? Negotiate in their terms?

[Filo]

Idler
So you've not seen Macron proposing a multi-grouping for Europe? A well-integrated inner core set of countries, with others around the periphery opting out of various aspects?

Why care what Juncker says? He's utterly irrelevant.

Filo. Yes. Exactly. So they are no negotiating in good faith. So what do you expect the EU to do? Negotiate in their terms?

Irrelevent of which way anyone voted, I think we can all agree that it's a right old mess of the Governments making

[MachoMadness]

Just reading that the EU leaders are going to refuse Theresa's attempts to talk trade (again) tomorrow but talk her up in the press because she's so weak domestically she won't make any concessions in the negotiations.

She's so weak she literally can't do her job.

[hoolahoop]

Ironic that the weakness of the current Tory Party far from thrilling the EU leaders actually has them confused as to how to deal with the wounded animal. 
Like any individual or organisation they prefer to deal with certainty rather than the pathetic animal that they see before it.

What they feel is that anyou deal thrashed out now could be reneged on in the near future .
Personally I think and hope that Brexit will be somehow cancelled before innocent people's lives are tossed upside down.
Macron's vision of a 2/3 or even 4 tier Europe could have some mileage in it yet- after all we already have opt-,outs a plenty

[Filo]

When the EU talk about the UK paying the divorce bill, maybe they should take a leaf out of their own book

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41774817

[Glyn_Wigley]

When the EU talk about the UK paying the divorce bill, maybe they should take a leaf out of their own book

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41774817

Are you actually thinking the divorce bill is going to be paid all in one go and not over several years like that is??

[wilts rover]

When the EU talk about the UK paying the divorce bill, maybe they should take a leaf out of their own book

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41774817

And when Brexitiers told us how much money we were going to get back - they forgot to mention it would be in 30 years time!!!!

[keith79]

We should ask them for money. Part of the divorce bill.

[RedJ]

You have no idea how things like this work if you think that's what we can do.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

This is the reality. Did you think that Leave was just something that we could click our fingers and arrange? There are complex contractual obligations which we have entered into and which now have to be unpicked.

The EIB is a brilliant concept for funding infrastructure improvements across Europe. It pools risk between countries and provides fundingat much lower rates than commercial banks would provide. It's a perfect example of the benefits that we get from working together. It means that big investment projects from like roads, railways, water systems etc can get funding at rates which make them viable. One example, close to home: EIB funding has underpinned the new high speed trains that will be on the East Coast Main Line next year.

The EIB is not trying to impose penalties on us by saying we'll not get all our investment back for 40 years. WE have entered into long-term contractual agreements about its funding. We can't just turn round and say, "changed our minds. Can we have our money back please?" Contracts don't work like that.

These things were never discussed last summer. There was no grown up debate about what the real benefits were from our connection with Europe. Or that unpicking them would take generations and a lot of effort.

You voted for Brexit. You're getting Brexit. This is what it entails.

[hoolahoop]

I'm currently helping my daughter sort out her Erasmus + study abroad applications - she wants to spend a year in Copenhagen. Try as we might , it seems that all these funding arrangements are " up in the air " too . She is graduating from a top Russell Group uni and basically it appears they haven't got a clue how all this will effect this programme let alone the huge capital projects that were going to make not only Oxbridge but other unis such as Leeds , Sheffield, York etc . the envy of the world in terms of research and development.

Unless we are careful all the great strides we have made to not only to be the financial but also one of THE best centres for R & D will be lost. Our universities were about to enter a golden age - when the funding is pulled what then ? Just like the EIB, another pooled EU strength will be lost.

No doubt like the financial services sector , we will see R & D moved out to  say the unis @ Copenhagen, Mannheim, Zurich etc . along with the brightest tutors, researchers, students . I'm still looking for a positive in all this - oh yes I forgot we will regain the sovereignty we NEVER lost .

This IS reality and try as I might it ALL  seems like the worst of outcomes - where are the positives Brexiters  ?

[SydneyRover]

$600 quid this year and things have hardly started, how much next year and the next..............

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/01/brexit-vote-cost-niesr-economic-growth

[hoolahoop]

$600 quid this year and things have hardly started, how much next year and the next..............l

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/01/brexit-vote-cost-niesr-economic-growth

It doesn't make good reading does it , come March 2019 - " Project Fear " will pale into insignificance when Project Reality starts to bite - thanks Brexiters .

[BillyStubbsTears]

The Bank of England isn't pulling any punches with these comments today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/926057736151945216/photo/1

-Brexit has resulted in inflation which is why interest rates are now going up.
-Brexit has led to our economy slowing, just as the rest of the world is picking up.
-Brexit means that any future growth is going to lead to more inflation which means higher interest rates which means less growth.

Still, in a recent poll, 40% of pensioners who voted Leave said they would do so again. even if it resulted in a family member losing their job.

[SydneyRover]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/03/no-deal-brexit-could-add-930-a-year-to-uk-shopping-bills-say-experts
The evidence is mounting daily and coming from normally very sober conservative sources and unless the people of Britain have their say and demand another vote.......................

[Dagenham Rover]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/03/no-deal-brexit-could-add-930-a-year-to-uk-shopping-bills-say-experts
The evidence is mounting daily and coming from normally very sober conservative sources and unless the people of Britain have their say and demand another vote.......................

Is there any conservatives or Labour or whoever for that matter going to be left in Parliment after the next week or so

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sydney

Thing is, none of those arguments are getting through. We're in an age of entrenched opinions. No-one wants to listen to information which suggests that they might be wrong.

We're all guilty of it.

In that sense, Michael Gove almost hit the nail on the head when he said that people had had enough of listening to experts. What he really should have said was that people had hade ouch oflistening to experts who challenge their deep-seated beliefs.

On this subject, you have to go a long, long way to find an expert economist who things there's anything positive to come out of Brexit. We're already seeing the initial negative effects. Weaker pound. Higher inflation. Weaker economic growth.

Most economists aren't predicting a sudden cliff-edge collapse because of Brexit. Instead, they are predicting a long, slow reduction in economic performance relative to the rest of Europe and the World. That will hurt hugely over time. If our GDP growth drops by 1% per year (which is the general average prediction) then by the late 2030s, we'll be £2-3trn poorer than we should have been. That's a lot of doctors and hospitals and teachers and schools and roads and railways. Moreto theooint, that sort of long, slow decline would put us on a much lower economic standard than currently, where, person for person, we are roughly level with Japan, Germany, France, USA, Canada etc. We won't be in their league in 20 years time if those prijections are right. We'll have taken our country back, but it will be a significantly weaker and poorer country.

But there's enough people who are prepared to ignore those predictions. Prepared to ignore experts who say things that make them uncomfortable.

[hoolahoop]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/03/no-deal-brexit-could-add-930-a-year-to-uk-shopping-bills-say-experts
The evidence is mounting daily and coming from normally very sober conservative sources and unless the people of Britain have their say and demand another vote.......................

Is there any conservatives or Labour or whoever for that matter going to be left in Parliment after the next week or so

Probably not John , I suspect the bar has gone higher too . Small indiscretions will soon be treated as major issues.
However I suspect that sexism has been rampant as much if not more so there as in every other workplace. I am concerned that fairly innocent transgressions , forgiven by victims, can come back to haunt not only the transgressors but the poor female that might rather forget and have moved on rather than be on some circulated list ?
Hope everything OK Daggers btw as not heard much from you recently ?

[SydneyRover]

Sydney

Thing is, none of those arguments are getting through. We're in an age of entrenched opinions. No-one wants to listen to information which suggests that they might be wrong.

We're all guilty of it.

In that sense, Michael Gove almost hit the nail on the head when he said that people had had enough of listening to experts. What he really should have said was that people had hade ouch oflistening to experts who challenge their deep-seated beliefs.

On this subject, you have to go a long, long way to find an expert economist who things there's anything positive to come out of Brexit. We're already seeing the initial negative effects. Weaker pound. Higher inflation. Weaker economic growth.

Most economists aren't predicting a sudden cliff-edge collapse because of Brexit. Instead, they are predicting a long, slow reduction in economic performance relative to the rest of Europe and the World. That will hurt hugely over time. If our GDP growth drops by 1% per year (which is the general average prediction) then by the late 2030s, we'll be £2-3trn poorer than we should have been. That's a lot of doctors and hospitals and teachers and schools and roads and railways. Moreto theooint, that sort of long, slow decline would put us on a much lower economic standard than currently, where, person for person, we are roughly level with Japan, Germany, France, USA, Canada etc. We won't be in their league in 20 years time if those prijections are right. We'll have taken our country back, but it will be a significantly weaker and poorer country.

But there's enough people who are prepared to ignore those predictions. Prepared to ignore experts who say things that make them uncomfortable.

I see a steady decline in personal wealth and over a couple of generations a continued drift into poverty for more and more people coupled with controls of freedom. The UK is already one of the most monitored societies at every opportunity in the name of terrorism laws are changed to allow the police and other agencies to access data that allows them to see whom you contact where you spend your money and where you travel and none of these laws have sunset clauses as far as I'm aware. Go back 20 years and I'd have thought that we were in a cycle where those in lower socioeconomic positions would be able to claw themselves out and to build/rebuild lives but nowadays this is much more difficult. Sorry to paint a picture of gloom but where and how does someone that has fallen on hard times go to resurrect their lives.

[Donnywolf]

Still, in a recent poll, 40% of pensioners who voted Leave said they would do so again. even if it resulted in a family member losing their job.

I cant find the actual numbers of votes cast but saw that the percentage split for my age group 65 + was 36 Stay 64 Leave

So if 40 % of that 64 would still vote Leave that would be (call it 26) and 38 of them therefore would presumably vote Stay if given another choice

So "now" we would have that same Group who would vote 74 Remain to 26 to Leave and obviously this "back of a fag packet " Maths is pure speculation but that represents a big swing

If there were 5 million Pensioners who original voted their votes would have produced :

Remain 1,800,000
Leave   3,200,000

If there were now the same 5 Million voting the vote now would produce :

Remain 3,700,000
Leave   1,300,000

Only 1,300,000 Million separated Leave from Remain in the overall Vote but of course I am estimating everything

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wolf

Remember the context of the question.

What would you vote if you knew that leaving the EU would result in a family member losing their job.

That's the point. If people KNOW that leaving the EU wil be seriously detrimental to the economy, even the majority of pensioner Leavers would change their mind (although I do wonder what is in the heads of that 40%...)

The point is that there's been enough muddying of the waters for a lot of the Leave supporters to be able to convince themselves that the economy will be alright. In poll after poll, a majority of Leave supporters still think that the economy will get better or stay the same after Brexit. That opinion is shared by only about 1 economist in 10.

[hoolahoop]

Exactly , respect to the way that the Brexiters have managed to sell their losing hand to their adoring fans. Anyone thinking this is a strong economy wants their head examining - we have 100'000s of kids leaving colleges with near worthless degrees that would otherwise be sat on  the dole queue but instead share shit jobs, working crap hours for poor wages . Meanwhile they wonder how they are going to get on the housing ladder whilst staring at their student loan debt update.

[Donnywolf]

Wolf

Remember the context of the question.

What would you vote if you knew that leaving the EU would result in a family member losing their job.

That's the point. If people KNOW that leaving the EU wil be seriously detrimental to the economy, even the majority of pensioner Leavers would change their mind (although I do wonder what is in the heads of that 40%...)

The point is that there's been enough muddying of the waters for a lot of the Leave supporters to be able to convince themselves that the economy will be alright. In poll after poll, a majority of Leave supporters still think that the economy will get better or stay the same after Brexit. That opinion is shared by only about 1 economist in 10.

Yeah you were right. I only saw the figures and not the attached criteria

I keep having a look at this Thread but in truth I don't know why as I am so thoroughly disenchanted with the whole EU Referendum / the Result thereof / and the action(s) and blather before during and after the process !

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wolf

I'd guess you're disenchanted for the same reason I am. That holding a referendum in this topic was stupid beyond description. It is a fiendishly complex topic and the "debate" that we had last summer barely sharpened the knife, let alone scratched the surface.

The problem was (and it was criminal stupidity of Cameron not to understand this) once you accept that it is impossible to properly analyse the overwhelming complexity of the issues in a referendum, you have to accept that the decision will be made, more or less on gut instinct. And the Leave side had a far stronger hand there.

The Leave side coined a brilliant phrase: Take Our Country Back! That chimed with people on an instinctive level. Underneath that, they had this line that the worst consequences wouldn't happen because we are a big economy that can trade with the rest of the world, and that the EU would want to give us a decent deal anyway. And finally, the money. Leave had the simple fact that, on basic accounting, we pay more than we directly received back.

Those were powerful arguments. Grossly over-simplistic, but that's what you need in a referendum.

Reamisn's case had to be much more complex. Less instinctively appealing. It had to accept that the EU wasn't perfect. That the decision to remain should be one on balance between two less than perfect alternatives. That the economic case to remain (which is utterly overwhelming) required complex analysis to understand.

The Remain campaign never developed its equivalent of Take Our Country Back! Corbyn took thisto an extreme, openly criticising the EU and saying the case to remain was 7/10. As though that would inspire people to vote Remain.

That's why I'm so f**ked off with the whole process. A decision that was way too complex to have a referendum over. That's not being condescending. It's backed up by evidence. An opinion poll in the week after the vote found that 47% of people believed that the £350m a week claim was true. THAT was the environment in which we made the biggest decision in 3 generations.

[Donnywolf]

  100 Per Cent