Late Goals conceded

[mushRTID]

This isn’t a negative post. I’m genuinely wondering why it happens so much.

Is it;

1) Fergie style/tactics
2) Young players being naive
3) Both

I don’t think iv watched a rovers side where I shit myself so much after 85 min. It’s costing us.

[The Red Baron]

Bit of both, although a lot of Rovers teams I've watched have had a tendency to concede late on.

[Bentley Bullet]

We should have gone for another goal instead of trying to get the ball in the corner for the last 10 minutes. That's the sort of thing you see in a cup final, not a league match.

[RedJ]

Probably both. Inexperience will lead to goals that more experienced players wouldn't allow to happen and Ferguson's about as much use with the defensive side of the game as Kyle Bennett would be in the trenches.

[drfchound]

No Rovers teams conceded more late goals than SoD’s teams.

[mushRTID]

No Rovers teams conceded more late goals than SoD’s teams.

Is that a fact or opinion as it seems like every other week at the minute?

[Dutch Uncle]

No Rovers teams conceded more late goals than SoD’s teams.

This is true. I did an analysis at the end of last season comparing managers back to Dave Penney. I counted all goals scored and conceded after 80 minutes. I scored +1 point if the score improved and -1 if the score worsenend (+2 and -2 if we went from losing to winning and vice versa). The results were:

•   Sean O'Driscoll: 40 goals scored, 56 conceded; 16 points gained, 30 dropped; swing minus 14;
•   Dave Penney: 57 goals scored, 29 conceded; 21 points gained, 12 dropped; swing plus 9;
•   Dean Saunders: 12 goals scored, 20 conceded; 6 points gained, 9 dropped; swing minus 3;
•   Brian Flynn: 6 goals scored, 6 conceded; 3 points gained, 1 dropped; swing plus 1;
•   Paul Dickov: 22 goals scored, 30 conceded; 11 points gained, 11 dropped; swing 0;
•   Rob Jones: 2 goals scored, 3 conceded; 1 point gained, 1 dropped; swing 0;
•   Darren Ferguson: 26 goals scored, 19 conceded; 6 points gained, 7 dropped; swing -1;

   So, our most successful recent manager for late goals has been Dave Penney, and our least successful Sean O’Driscoll. Darren Ferguson was still to make a mark in either direction. However, a closer look at the results suggest to me that the strongest correlation factor in the data, looking at individual seasons, certainly since 2002, is not any manager or his tactics, but far more simply the level we are playing at. Unsurprisingly we do badly at Championship level and much better when playing lower than that. 


I do agree that so far this season seems very bad.

[drfchound]

No Rovers teams conceded more late goals than SoD’s teams.

Is that a fact or opinion as it seems like every other week at the minute?

Fact.

[Superspy]

DU, have you looked to see what those numbers look like when the number of games with each manager in charge is taken into account? I'm not making any assumptions, I just think it would be interesting to see.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The point is lack of clear leads. One goal leads late on invite pressure. Get 2 up it's mostly game over.

[RedJ]

DU, have you looked to see what those numbers look like when the number of games with each manager in charge is taken into account? I'm not making any assumptions, I just think it would be interesting to see.

And the level of management, as a win (especially from behind) is more of a feat in the Championship than League One or Two.

[mushRTID]

The point is lack of clear leads. One goal leads late on invite pressure. Get 2 up it's mostly game over.

Very good point. This season the late goals conceded have all cost us due to no clear leads. Shrewsbury, Rochdale, rotherham.

Need to start scoring more if we can’t see games out properly.

[Dutch Uncle]

DU, have you looked to see what those numbers look like when the number of games with each manager in charge is taken into account? I'm not making any assumptions, I just think it would be interesting to see.

And the level of management, as a win (especially from behind) is more of a feat in the Championship than League One or Two.

As I said in the post above, the level played seems to be the single most significant factor. I wrote two articles in the Fanzine (issues 54 and 88) in which individual season data can be seen.

Haven't done a lot on managers' numbers, but I think the approximate number of league games managed by each is Penney 202, SOD 231, Saunders 66, Flynn 19, Dickov 98, Jones 6 and Ferguson 81 (as of end of last season), so you can divide the figures above to get a few comparisons.

[drfchound]

So Dutch, are you saying that Ferguson’s figures don’t include this season?

[Dutch Uncle]

So Dutch, are you saying that Ferguson’s figures don’t include this season?

Yep. This season is clearly a lot worse so far. I have simply put up part of what I wrote in Fanzine nr 88. Basically for Ferguson, unsurprsingly (most of) one relegation season and one promotion season balance each other out. It looks like he is going to come out very negative if this season's trend is not reversed soon.

[drfchound]

So Dutch, are you saying that Ferguson’s figures don’t include this season?

Yep. This season is clearly a lot worse so far. I have simply put up part of what I wrote in Fanzine nr 88. Basically for Ferguson, unsurprsingly (most of) one relegation season and one promotion season balance each other out. It looks like he is going to come out very negative if this season's trend is not reversed soon.

Cheers, that is how I see it.

[anne honemous]

The manager chose to assemble a young squad in the summer and regardless of how much we support them and want them to develop, it's costing us in situations like today.

If we're still being blighted by the same issues at the end of the season (inconsistency, a soft underbelly/lack of experience and conceding late goals), long after the manager has had a transfer window to sort out the flaws within our squad, then his future has to be questioned.

[Donny Exile in York]

Depends if he has the money / budget to fix it. Andy Williams is a very expensive player to be sat on the bench and when playing too, to be not scoring. If we could off load him as Fergie wanted to at the end of last season i think that would go along way, and perhaps we might have already added the experienced Steven Taylor to the back line. Maybe getting to the third round of the FA cup would provide some extra funds for Fergie to play with in January.

[since-1969]

DF is only our manager because he does  what the board says . Build a team that won’t break the bank and this is what they can afford . There is NO desire to go beyond a remit that will mean paying any more into the club . Marquis in point and who has reverted to his second division ability’s and was a mistake of monumental proportions in persuasion of the board to give him the extended terms . It’s very much looking like the  board are paying dearly for his 3 year contract . In January I predict that unless we shift 3 out no one is coming in .

[drfchound]

Depends if he has the money / budget to fix it. Andy Williams is a very expensive player to be sat on the bench and when playing too, to be not scoring. If we could off load him as Fergie wanted to at the end of last season i think that would go along way, and perhaps we might have already added the experienced Steven Taylor to the back line. Maybe getting to the third round of the FA cup would provide some extra funds for Fergie to play with in January.

A bit of an unfair dig at Willo.
He has barely started a league game and has only had a handful of sub appearances to try to make an impact.
When he has been on the pitch he has looked a more likely scorer than JM and regular minutes on the pitch will make him sharper.

[since-1969]

DF doesn’t Trust Williams to deliver , it’s very much looking like they’ve fallen out and their relationship is mearly a tenuous one . January could well see him go but unless there is a radical change ,DF won’t be given additional funds unless he can get Marquis firing again as we’re stuck with another misfiring striker . Today proved this !!!

[BillyStubbsTears]

69.

Are you talking about the Marquis who is currently on target for scoring 14-15 goals this season as well as leading the line on his tod?

Or have we signed another one?

[SydneyRover]

I think it's worth noting of the 7 games played in L1 yesterday there were 2 draws and 4 of the other 5 the lower team beat the higher team.

[since-1969]

69.

Are you talking about the Marquis who is currently on target for scoring 14-15 goals this season as well as leading the line on his tod?

Or have we signed another one?

6 goals how many chances has he missed . Alfie May is more effective even Rowe is a better forward . He is ONLY in the side because DF can’t drop him when he went out in a limb to get him his extended contract . Williams was to be sacrificed to help pay for it this much is obvious and the fact he stayed was due to 1) no one willing to pay his high wage 2) not being able to play Alex kiwomia . Marquis is not quality he’s become the reason Rovers are struggling as he is not performing.

[BillyStubbsTears]

69

Aye.

Only 6 goals. f**king useless. I don't know why he's not got 10. Or 15. f**k it. 25.

And I bet the t**t put that milk in me ale at half time and all.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Lack of composure. We have a tendency to panic. We've seen allsorts of miskicks, rabbit in headlight marking, needless free kicks, goalkeeping gaffs. For all the hard work and solid defending, we lack the collective guile to keep possession at the vital moments.

Keeping calm doesn't seem to be in our make-up. 

Are you telling me Copps couldn't play another 10 mins? A player who I'd want on the pitch to use his brain and skill to slow things down and buy time.

 

[since-1969]

DF is obsessed with taking him off , if he’s unsure why not leave him on the bench for the first 10mins then bring him on . Ooooh we can do that either we’ve conceded as many then as in the last 10mins . It’s looking more stupid every time we give a goal away , looking to blame some obscured reason when it just down to  doing what is required and play to the end and keep Kalm .

[MachoMadness]

Just goes back to a worrying trend of our teams lacking bottle under Ferguson. The relegation, the capitulation last season that resulted in us coming 3rd in a 2 horse race for the title, and the constant late goals conceded this season. We need a proper mester on the pitch who can actually martial us when we need to dig and and defend ugly, and less of the lightweight attacking midfielders we seem to be fond of signing.

[anne honemous]

Rather than Copps being at the forefront of everything positive in our side, we need to have an eye on how we replace him in the long term as the fact is he isn't getting any younger and he's not going to be able to play forever.

If he can still perform to a high standard, such as Southend at home, then fair enough but where we really need him now is in the closing stages of games where his experience, know how and game management is valuable and where he can pass that on to other players.

He's probably got more experience than the rest of the squad put together, so replacing him for the last 20 minutes with a fresh pair of legs doesn't always work for me.

[since-1969]

Why can’t DF see this we all can !!