50 points

[les@donr]

Target for us to guarantee L1 football next season. Get 50 asap, then prepare for next season.

[Dutch Uncle]

In the 36 seasons since the 3 points per win, the fourth from bottom club in this Division has had 50 or more points on 15 occasions. So 50 points has given on average about a 58% chance of survival.

54 points has been relegated once, 53 on 2 occasions, 52 on 2 occasions and 51 on 3 occasions.

So 52 points has given about an 86% chance of survival and 53 about 92% and 54 about 97%

I won't sleep easy until we have 54, but then I'm a pessimist about these sorts of things.

Edit: The lowest number of points for a 5th from bottom place was 45 in 1999-00.

[RoversAlias]

Three more wins should do it for me, if we pick up an 'average' set of results to the end of the season (i.e. equal wins, losses and draws from now) we'll do it comfortably.

[IDM]

average a point per game and we finish on 54..

Surely we can do better?

[les@donr]

50 should be our minimum target for safety.

[drfchound]

Yes, three more wins should be good enough but can we get them?
Under Ferguson we haven’t finished a season well yet so hopefully that will change.
Fifty points as a minimum requirement should be achievable, 54 sounds so much more right now given our one win in a dozen or so games since the turn of the year.

[selby]

  I expect us to go  out and try to get as many points as possible to the end of the season, not just set a points target where we think we would be safe.
   Any capitulation resembling the end to the last two seasons and I would expect the board to take appropriate action, and heads on the management side to roll.
   I hope that scenario does not raise its ugly head, but mid table respectability, and forward thinking for next season should be the ambition for the rest of this season.

[IDM]

 

My opinion is always to try and take the most amount of points we can from the next game.  Then worry about the next one after that. 

[drfchound]

I think it goes without the need to say it that the team will be trying to get as many points as possible up to the end of the season.

[Bessie Red]

Out of the 11 games left only 4 are against teams above us. One of those is Southend who are 1 place above & another is against Gillingham who I think are 3 places above. The other 2 are Wigan & Blackburn. So assuming we will lose against those 2 we have 9 games against teams who are below or very close to us. If we don't get 12 points from those 9 games quite frankly we don't deserve to stay up!!

[roversdude]

What about Bradford

[dickos1]

Even two years ago when we got relegated we got 9 points from the remaining 11 games
So even if we only match that we will comfortably stay up

[DMnumber4]

Under Penney, his stock response was "50 points first" whether that was in division 3 or league 1 - it served him pretty well i would say.

Similarly Sheff Utd this season under Wilder.

[GazLaz]

The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.

[Bristol Red Rover]

If only we can go from draws to win/lose we'll be fine.

[Colemans Left Hook]

If only we can go from draws to win/lose we'll be fine.

like sheff united
   played 34   won 17   drawn 4   lost 13   49   40   GD +9 55 points

[drfchound]

Well it looks as though Rochdale haven’t given up hope of staying up.

[RoversAlias]

They're still further behind us than their games in hand will help them though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

They are 13 points behind us. Even including tonight’s win, you have to go back to before Halloween to find the time it’s taken them to get their last 13 points.

Not saying they can’t turn their form round, but if they catch us, we’ll very much deserve to go down. I’ll be amazed if they finish within 10 points of us.

[drfchound]

They're still further behind us than their games in hand will help them though.

I wasn’t including us in my post.
I just said that they haven’t given up hope of avoiding the drop.

[southwestexile]

The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.

The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.

Bloody algorithms coming over here, doing our maths. Get back to Algorithia!

[IDM]

We have eleven games to go.. plenty of oppprtunities to get enough points of our own without looking at other teams (yet)..

[GazLaz]

The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.

The algorithms are saying we will finish on 56/57 points.

Bloody algorithms coming over here, doing our maths. Get back to Algorithia!

Haha Hard Brexit!!

[drfchound]

Rochdale STILL not given up hope yet.
1-0 at Rotherham is a good win for them.
Four games in hand over Northampton and only seven points behind them.

[andysly]

As long as it doesn’t drag us into I hope Rochdale pull it off

[Chris Black come back]

It is perhaps worth gently reminding ourselves that after today, we have won one game in the last twelve.

[dickos1]

We have yes, but we've not lost many either. If we carry on drawing most weeks with the occasional win we will be safe comfortably

[The Red Baron]

If we draw every game between now and the end of the season it will probably be enough to keep us up.

Happy with the result today on a dreadful pitch. We do seem more resilient than we did earlier in the season.

[BillyStubbsTears]

CBCB

Yeah, it’s always good to be reminded of that.

Is it also perhaps worth gently reminding you that, after we found our feet in September, we have picked up points at top-half of the table rate for nearly 2/3rds of a season?

Or that we’ve lost only 5 league games out of 21 since the clocks went back despite those games including away matches against 6 of the top 8 and despite long term injuries having robbed us of for much of that time, up to half a first XI in
McCullough
Kiwomya
Butler
Baudry
Andrew

plus assorted others?

[boro_rover]

Decent bit of perspective there BST.