Officially safe?

[covdrfc]

Sorry if i’ve missed comments elsewhere, but the BBC write up on today’s match reports that we are officially safe. How can this be? Do a lot of the teams below us have to play each other, which prevents at least 4 teams from catching us or is it a BBC mistake?

Great news if true

[RoversAlias]

Can only assume that's an error unless someone wants to crunch the numbers and see if it is indeed impossible due to certain fixtures.

[elmsallrover]

Why don't we lose all our remaining games and find out like we did a few years ago

[scawsby steve]

Sorry if i’ve missed comments elsewhere, but the BBC write up on today’s match reports that we are officially safe. How can this be? Do a lot of the teams below us have to play each other, which prevents at least 4 teams from catching us or is it a BBC mistake?

Great news if true

It's just a typical BBC error, Cov; as I've said before, BBC and Sky are both sh*te at football coverage. Jeff Stelling today couldn't even get Marquis's goal tally correct.

[Padge_DRFC]

Earliest time mathematically is next Saturday. Win our next 2 and it could make the last few a bit interesting when we’re poking around 10th 11th

[DonnyOsmond]

Of us and the teams below theres still all these games to play. I've had a look and it's still a couple games away, even with these.

Doncaster v Bury
Wimbledon v Bury
Southend v MK Dons
Walsall v Northampton
Northampton v Oldham
Rochdale v Oldham
Oxford v Rochdale
Wimbledon v Oldham
Oldham v Southend
Oldham v Doncaster
Doncaster v Oxford
Doncaster v Wimbledon

[Beerseller]

From that set of fixtures, I think 59 points is guaranteed safety at this stage and that's ignoring goal difference.

Any result in Rochdale v Oldham leaves one of them on a max 58pts.  MK Dons can only reach a maximum 54pts and Northampton and Bury can't catch us.

[Alan Southstand]

When has a team been relegated with 58 points?

[The Red Baron]

When has a team been relegated with 58 points?

IIRC 54 is the highest, certainly in this division.

[Alan Southstand]

Exactly, RB! All this maths talk is utter nonsense. Look at each team's stats, both long and short term and then tell me who will get more than 53 points?

That is a far more interesting question.

[Dutch Uncle]

When has a team been relegated with 58 points?

IIRC 54 is the highest, certainly in this division.

Correct

As I said on another thread, for what it is worth, in the 36 seasons in this League since 3 points per win was introduced, 4th bottom has ranged between 43 and 54 points (average 48.5), and 5th bottom has ranged between 45 and 54 (average 50.6). Every season had 46 games.

So 54 is the highest to be relegated and 45 the lowest to survive.

54 was relegated in one season, 53 in 2 seasons, 52 in 2 seasons, 51 in 3 seasons and 50 in 7 seasons.

Historically then 53 has a 92% chance of survival.

Edit: Fergie though does have previous on this score. His Peterborough side was very unluckily relegated from the Championship with 54 points in 2012-13 - and there were only 3 relegation positions.

[Beerseller]

This is aimed more at Dutch Uncle and the other major league stattos but out of interest, what’s the maximum number of points it’s possible to achieve and still be relegated?

My best guess is that it would need a season with no draws and the bottom three teams have to lose every game. All other teams then share out the remaining wins and losses equally between them. It would mean the final relegation position was settled on goal difference but I reckon that gives a 78 points relegation. Obviously never going to happen.

In all realistic circumstances, you’d have to say even 57 points is an absolute one off. Out of 46 games, win 15 draw 15 lose 16 is lower mid table form and gives 60 points.



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[Dutch Uncle]

See this thread starting near the bottom of page 4 .... and if you can bear it then follow it through and choose an answer 

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=265300.90

[Beerseller]

See this thread starting near the bottom of page 4 .... and if you can bear it then follow it through and choose an answer 

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=265300.90

Thanks for that Dutch. I think the last I saw of that thread it only had 50-odd replies.

It seems an easy answer, you win all your home games, lose all your away games except the 3 away games against the bottom 3 so its 78 points.


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[BillyStubbsTears]

See this thread starting near the bottom of page 4 .... and if you can bear it then follow it through and choose an answer 

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=265300.90

Yeah, yeah, alright.

I’d had a tough day at work.

[The Red Baron]

I think only one team has ever been relegated from this level with 54 points. We'll be ok now. I just don't want to see this season peter out.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Peter was out last night!