1/9/23 The day any sensible 'Brexit is an economic nightmare' argument died

[Branton Red]

1/9/23 The ONS updates 2020 and 2021 GDP growth figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01

- GDP fell 10.4% in 2020 (Covid year) - not 11.0% as previously reported
- GDP rose 8.7% in 2021 - not 7.6% as previously reported

This means: -

1) Instead of the UK economy still now being smaller than pre-pandemic. Actually it was higher than pre-pandemic levels as early as the end of 2021.

2) Since the start of 2020 the UK is not the slowest growing economy in the G7. Actually it has grown considerably faster than Germany and at a similar rate to France and Italy.

3) Since 2016 it was previously thought the UK economy had grown at a similar rate to France and Germany but faster than Italy. Actually since 2016 the UK has grown faster than each of Germany, France and Italy.

All this despite the UK economy being hit harder by Covid in 2020 than these other economies (due to the UK's higher reliance on service industries).

Also many economists (inc the IMF www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=287684.0) believe the UK will economically out perform much of the rest of Western Europe in the second half of the current decade.

Would/could the UK economy have performed even better if we'd stayed in the EU? Yes. However the comparative data against other countries suggests any such betterment could only sensibly be relatively small.

The economic impact of Brexit has provably been incredibly mild.

[scawsby steve]

1/9/23 The ONS updates 2020 and 2021 GDP growth figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01

- GDP fell 10.4% in 2020 (Covid year) - not 11.0% as previously reported
- GDP rose 8.7% in 2021 - not 7.6% as previously reported

This means: -

1) Instead of the UK economy still now being smaller than pre-pandemic. Actually it was higher than pre-pandemic levels as early as the end of 2021.

2) Since the start of 2020 the UK is not the slowest growing economy in the G7. Actually it has grown considerably faster than Germany and at a similar rate to France and Italy.

3) Since 2016 it was previously thought the UK economy had grown at a similar rate to France and Germany but faster than Italy. Actually since 2016 the UK has grown faster than each of Germany, France and Italy.

All this despite the UK economy being hit harder by Covid in 2020 than these other economies (due to the UK's higher reliance on service industries).

Also many economists (inc the IMF www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=287684.0) believe the UK will economically out perform much of the rest of Western Europe in the second half of the current decade.

Would/could the UK economy have performed even better if we'd stayed in the UK? Yes. However the comparative data against other countries suggests any such betterment could only sensibly be relatively small.

The economic impact of Brexit has provably been incredibly mild.

Wait for the cavalry.

[tyke1962]

1/9/23 The ONS updates 2020 and 2021 GDP growth figures www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/impactofbluebook2023changesongrossdomesticproduct/2023-09-01

- GDP fell 10.4% in 2020 (Covid year) - not 11.0% as previously reported
- GDP rose 8.7% in 2021 - not 7.6% as previously reported

This means: -

1) Instead of the UK economy still now being smaller than pre-pandemic. Actually it was higher than pre-pandemic levels as early as the end of 2021.

2) Since the start of 2020 the UK is not the slowest growing economy in the G7. Actually it has grown considerably faster than Germany and at a similar rate to France and Italy.

3) Since 2016 it was previously thought the UK economy had grown at a similar rate to France and Germany but faster than Italy. Actually since 2016 the UK has grown faster than each of Germany, France and Italy.

All this despite the UK economy being hit harder by Covid in 2020 than these other economies (due to the UK's higher reliance on service industries).

Also many economists (inc the IMF www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=287684.0) believe the UK will economically out perform much of the rest of Western Europe in the second half of the current decade.

Would/could the UK economy have performed even better if we'd stayed in the UK? Yes. However the comparative data against other countries suggests any such betterment could only sensibly be relatively small.

The economic impact of Brexit has provably been incredibly mild.

Popcorn at the ready .

[wilts rover]

ONS revising their figures around covid recovery shows justification of Brexit. Well OK if you say so..

[Branton Red]

ONS revising their figures around covid recovery shows justification of Brexit. Well OK if you say so..

What these revised figures show is that between 2016 (year of the referendum) and 2022 comparative economic growth figures for the 4 biggest European economies were as follows: -

UK 9.5%; France 8.3%; Germany 7.8%; Italy 5.5%

And for 2020 (year we left the EU) to the end of 2022 the comparative growth figures were: -

UK 1.3%; Italy 1.0%; France 0.9%; Germany 0.6%

And that is despite the UK suffering more than these economies from Covid in 2020 when comparative economic falls were: -

UK -10.4%; Italy -9.0%; France -7.9%; Germany -3.7%

www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD for the data (2020 and 2021 updated for UK as per OP)

Therefore there is simply no sensible argument to be had that Brexit has been an economic nightmare.

[River Don]

The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.

You need to take a longer term overview.

[Branton Red]

The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.

You need to take a longer term overview.

Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.

Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -

UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%

[River Don]

The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.

You need to take a longer term overview.

Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.

Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -

UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%

The Conservative party don't trust economic forecasts from the likes of the IMF.

[SydneyRover]

what I don't understand is what has brexit changed that could possibly have improved the UK's economy?

[River Don]

what I don't understand is what has brexit changed that could possibly have improved the UK's economy?

Brexit doesn't change the economy that much. In fact it certainly makes things more difficult for the UK.

What it does do, for better or worse is give us more political Independance.

When Gove tore up EU rules on nutrient neutrality regarding housing development, despite personally promising the UK would not backtrack on environmental legislation... It made me understand we've been had.

[SydneyRover]

what I don't understand is what has brexit changed that could possibly have improved the UK's economy?

Brexit doesn't change the economy that much. In fact it certainly makes things more difficult for the UK.

What it does do, for better or worse is give us more political Independance.

When Gove tore up EU rules on nutrient neutrality regarding housing development, despite personally promising the UK would not backtrack on environmental legislation... It made me understand we've been had.

Exactly this, it's driving with the handbrake on.

[River Don]

what I don't understand is what has brexit changed that could possibly have improved the UK's economy?

Brexit doesn't change the economy that much. In fact it certainly makes things more difficult for the UK.

What it does do, for better or worse is give us more political Independance.

When Gove tore up EU rules on nutrient neutrality regarding housing development, despite personally promising the UK would not backtrack on environmental legislation... It made me understand we've been had.

Exactly this, it's driving with the handbrake on.

I didn't mind. I believe we are in a very steadily shrinking global economy, or about to embark on that. I felt localism and political Independance was important.

These days, I've  given up. Watching the weird weather and ever increasing temperatures... Well make your own mind up.

Never mind the fact there's hardly any growth in the global economy because ecoñomic rescources are being exhausted.

[SydneyRover]

''Would/could the UK economy have performed even better if we'd stayed in the EU? Yes. However the comparative data against other countries suggests any such betterment could only sensibly be relatively small.

The economic impact of Brexit has provably been incredibly mild''

To speak directly to this Branton, and I don't wish to be a doomsayer over the economy, but the few points I can think of where efficiencies could possibly improve are where hundreds (maybe thousands) of smaller businesses have cut production or closed this has been taken up by the uk's larger enterprises. The other is possibly less people travelling to Europe for hols.

[wilts rover]

What Brexit has done is allow the government to scrap environmental protection regulations so that companies & farmers can dump raw sewage in rivers & across beaches & allow housebuilders to build where they want.

What it hasn't done is help British production & manufacturing output which has fallen for the past 13 months straight. As the new figures show:

For example, according to the previous data, the gross value added to the economy by agriculture increased by 11.7 per cent between the date of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the end of 2021. Yet the new data shows a contraction of 7 per cent.

And this is by no means the biggest change. Basic iron and steel manufacturing increased by 56 per cent between 2019 and the end of 2021, according to the previous figures. The update changed that to a 66 per cent decline.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-economy-gdp-growth-jeremy-hunt-b2403325.html

https://www.ft.com/content/19746fd9-d5d0-4e02-920c-745611705ecf

[Glyn_Wigley]

The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.

You need to take a longer term overview.

Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.

Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -

UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%

Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?

[Branton Red]

The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.

You need to take a longer term overview.

Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.

Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -

UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%

Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?

After

In April 2023 - click on the link I provided.

[SydneyRover]

Are these gdp figures still accurate Branton?

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02784/SN02784.pdf

[Sprotyrover]

I became interested in INEOS after the thread about their CEO, ‘Yorkshires Richest man!
I did some reading and this is interesting
https://www.ineos.com/big-boats/
They took a gamble in 2010 and realised that most of Europe had become totally dependant on Cheap Russian Oil and Gas.
They used German, Danish and Spanish technology to design the largest Ethanol transporters ever built, they had the Fleet built in a Yard in China, the ships burn their own Cargo for propulsion, BAKKEN Shale Oil and Ethanol gas are Produced 300 miles inland from the Philadelphia area Coat, they secured a Pipe line and developed the Marcus Hook Facility near Philadelphia, they then, invested heavily in Grangemouth and also in Norway,when the fleet went into service circa 2016 they started to import Ethanol into Grangemouth and Also Norway, our UK gas market prices made this economically viable …Boom!!!! We get the pandemic and fuel prices rocket,it has an effect on the UK but boy it hammered Germany, Italy, and France. Then we have the War and that has dealt a crippling blow to the German economy,as they were still totally reliant on Russian Oil and Gas, they then had to buy on the competitive World market and this has had massive consequences for their industrial out put, France also took a hit as half their nuclear capacity was out of service, due to long term maintenance, the Gamble paid off for INEOS and they have been making money hand over fist. They have also recently purchased their own oil field in the BAKKEN  Shale deposit for $1.4 billion. Thereby securing their supplies, watch their growth I don’t doubt that they will buy several more fields. When you Google them they have their fingers in lots of pies.
Well worth looking at if you are into buying shares!

[Glyn_Wigley]

The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.

You need to take a longer term overview.

Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.

Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -

UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%

Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?

After

In April 2023 - click on the link I provided.

This one?

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GBR#featured

[Branton Red]

Are these gdp figures still accurate Branton?

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02784/SN02784.pdf

No - the bar chart is now wrong as the ONS has massively upgraded UK GDP growth for 2020 and 2021 - see my OP.

Now for 2020 (year we left the EU) to the end of 2022 the comparative growth figures were: -

UK 1.3%; Italy 1.0%; France 0.9%; Germany 0.6%

[Branton Red]

The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.

You need to take a longer term overview.

Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.

Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -

UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%

Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?

After

In April 2023 - click on the link I provided.

This one?

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GBR#featured

Glyn

This is best to use for comparatives www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD - an interactive map by year. 2020 and 2021 figures for the UK having since been updated as per the OP

The IMF also later upgraded it's UK 2023 forecast from -0.3 to +0.4 - as per the link you provided

[Glyn_Wigley]

The UK tends to zigzag more. Economically we don't try to flatten out the hits as much as they do in Europe. The highs are higher the lows are lower and it tends to happen faster here.

You need to take a longer term overview.

Ok if 7 years from 2016-2022 isn't long enough for you.

Using IMF forecast data comparative estimated economic growth for 2016 through to 2028 (13 years): -

UK 19.6%; France 18.0%; Germany 15.7%; Italy 11.6%

Were the IMF estimates made before or after the glorious Liz Truss era?

After

In April 2023 - click on the link I provided.

This one?

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/GBR#featured

Glyn

This is best to use for comparatives www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD - an interactive map by year. 2020 and 2021 figures for the UK having since been updated as per the OP

The IMF also later upgraded it's UK 2023 forecast from -0.3 to +0.4 - as per the link you provided

That only goes up to the present, where's the forecasts to 2028 you're talking about? That's what I've been looking for.

[Branton Red]

Glyn

Scroll down the page slightly. Click on the green box that says 2023 just under the world map and drag to the right to get 2024-28 forecast data

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

Scroll down the page slightly. Click on the green box that says 2023 just under the world map and drag to the right to get 2024-28 forecast data

That just shows the estimate per year (ie UK growth 2028 forecast at 1.5%), not overall from 2016 to 2028.

[danumdon]

Making some very uncomfortable reading for certain individuals on this thread.

Its very noticeable that certain others are keeping their heads very much down rather than thrash about like some others, looking for some salvation.

You can hear the veritable gnashing of teeth from here.!!

[Branton Red]

Glyn

Scroll down the page slightly. Click on the green box that says 2023 just under the world map and drag to the right to get 2024-28 forecast data

That just shows the estimate per year (ie UK growth 2028 forecast at 1.5%), not overall from 2016 to 2028.

Yes it gives the base data (and that they are forecasting the UK will outperform each of Germany, France and Italy in each of 2025/6/7/8) which can be used to calculate the comparative performance over time.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn

Scroll down the page slightly. Click on the green box that says 2023 just under the world map and drag to the right to get 2024-28 forecast data

That just shows the estimate per year (ie UK growth 2028 forecast at 1.5%), not overall from 2016 to 2028.

Yes it gives the base data (and that they are forecasting the UK will outperform each of Germany, France and Italy in each of 2025/6/7/8) which can be used to calculate the comparative performance over time.

Are you telling me you added together every individual years's growth for all these countries  to get the totals you quoted, even though the years of negative growth percentages will skew the final figure? It needs to be based on the effect of a single index per country over the whole period to have the true total, which I can't see anywhere.

[Branton Red]

No I haven't 'added them together'.

We're comparing growth over a period of time.

So for instance 2016-2018. You start each country at a base of 100 and apply the growth each year as a %. This works out the growth over a period.

E.g. UK growth of 2.2% in 2016; 2.4% in 2017; 1.7% in 2018.

Start at 100; after 2016 102.20; after 2017 104.65 (102.20 x 1.024); after 2018 106.43 (102.2 x 1.024 x 1.017)

So we know in the 3 years 2016-8 the UK economy grew overall 6.43%.

Do the same for e.g. France starting again at a base of 100 calculated the same way and you get your comparative.

I've just input the GDP growth data for each country into a spreadsheet using the above formula to work it out.

[selby]

  Where is Billy when you need him, he has used to these figures and quoted them on numerous occasions as has Glynn, they are the experts, probably being sick., And Syd has appeared again at the wrong time, oh dear it must be like losing a referendum again.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This yah-boo shite is very tiring, if expected from one or two in here who seem to become more immature by the year.

Branton. I'd intended to respond to your original post about the IMF figures several weeks ago, but the discussion moved on.

Forgive me, as a mere amateur, telling a professional like you how to deal with these figures, but, well you do keep going off at the wron angle because of your utter certainty that Brexit isn't a problem. And as a result, in the very IMF link that you posted several weeks ago, the problem is there, staring you in the face, but you don't see it.

Before I point it out to you, a bit of history and, if you'll allow me, a suggestion on how to interpret data.

The UK joined the EEC in the 70s because the evidence was clear. For two decades, Britain's economy had not grown as strongly as those of other leading nations. Not just other European nations, but all advanced economies. We had grown, but nowhere near as fast as they had. The EEC was seen as the cure to this, by opening the economy to competition, and to a much bigger market to sell into, eventually frictionlessly.

The argument of those of us who have seen Brexit as a major problem is not that it would smash our economy to pieces overnight. It was that it would send us on a different, lower growth trajectory than we would otherwise have been on.

To properly assess that, you don't compare figures from 2 or 3 countries since the Brexit vote. You need to look at the long historical trend of UK performance against all the leading economies (because concentrating on two or three will overstate effects like the short-run economic policies of those countries, or the effects of exogenous shocks on their economies, and make it harder to answer the real question - what has Brexit done to the long run trajectory of the UK economy relative to where it WAS going?)

The graph at the bottom of this page gives a blunt but instructive first order answer to that question. That's from IMF data from the link you posted. The blue line shows UK GDP as a % of the GDP of the G7 nations in total from 1981 (when the data starts) to 2015. There are major, short term ups and downs of course. There are recessions and better times that affect the ratio. But the long run trend is clear (the thin blue dotted line - that's a least squares regression linear fit, not a "by eye" line). A steady, slow long run improvement in the size of our economy relative to the overall G7. From about 7% of the G7 in 1981 to about 8.5% by 2015. That is precisely what membership of the trading bloc was supposed to help us achieve. In simple terms, we grew richer at a faster rate than the rest of the G& for three decades.

So what about the data after the 2016 vote? The IMF data is the thick orange dashed  line. The best fit linear trend since 2015/16 is given by the thin dotted orange line. There's been a clear and absolutely unambiguous fall in the ratio. The trajectory pivoted around 2016. The thick black dashed line by the way takes into account the recent ONS correction that you are heralding as the argument clincher. If you screw your eyes up really tight, you can just see the effect of the correction at the end.

You can want Brexit not to be a problem with all your heart. But the figures are there telling the story if you're really prepared to look for them.