Voting Intention

[afro goal machine]

Well done done IC1967 no betting slip needed

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-32655131

[hoolahoop]

It is actually as I predicted, the Lib Dem seats would be the deciding factor. If you look at the percentage of votes it hasn't changed much from last time, Labour up slightly more than Tory, it is the Lib Dem seats that have gone. Would the people who voted Lib Dem last time to keep the Tories out - still vote for them when they put the Tories in? It would appear not.

Thing is they didnt vote Labour either . Strangely enough they voted for UKIP & Greens where the Tories were weak and solidly Tory where the Tories were the 2nd party.
Bizarre knee-jerk reactions but if this Government messes it up ; they will go Lib/Dem en masse again . By 2020 UKIP will be a busted flush on their narrow agenda.

[The Red Baron]

Re. UKIP. If Cameron does go ahead with the promised EU referendum then that issue will be settled one way or another for some time.

That might still leave the issue of immigration, of course, but on that front they would be competing with other right wing parties and would therefore have lost their distinctness.

[hoolahoop]

Re. UKIP. If Cameron does go ahead with the promised EU referendum then that issue will be settled one way or another for some time.

That might still leave the issue of immigration, of course, but on that front they would be competing with other right wing parties and would therefore have lost their distinctness.

Correct RB and therefore the "protest" vote will come back to the Lib/Dems as you can be sure they will be working doubly hard at local level to regain those constituencies in the South - West and London especially. It will take time but it will happen.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

He'll go ahead with the referendum. He's toast if he doesn't.

Whether that settles the matter is a moot point. By far the most likely outcome is a series of small concessions and a IN vote. He simply won't get major concessions on this timescale, and (assuming the economy continues its limping improvement) people's bile against the EU will diminish. (Check the historical poll figures. Economy-down, EU antipathy-up and vice versa for 40 years.)

But do you think that an outcome like that would placate the 60-100 rabidly anti-EU MPs on the right of the Tory party? Do you think they'd consider that to have been a fair choice?

If Labour has any hope at all for 2020 (and I'm struggling to see much after that shattering defeat) it is that the Tory right is now empowered. It couldn't hurt Cameron in Parliament last time round becaus he had 57 LDs to support him. This time it can because Cameron has no protection on his left flank. There's a lot of right wing Tory MPs who viscerally loathe Cameron's politics. And given that he won't lead the Tories into the next Election, there will be some ruthless fighting for the philosophical heart of the party. Mainly over Europe.

[hoolahoop]

Good post Billy and that's how I see it. In fighting could cause fractures in the Tory party from the far Right. These will start to show a couple of years into this Parliament whether that will make Labour and Lib/Democrats more electable next time round is anyone's guess.....forget UKIP. The fractured opposition to the Tories did not help. The rise of UKIP helped to cause this mess. They and their agenda will simply melt away come the next election.