Voting Intention

[BillyStubbsTears]

With the polls so close, it's a fool who put's hos balls on the line on the final result.

But since I'm a fool, I'll go for

CON  275
LAB  280
LIB  28
UKIP  2
Green  1
SNP  42
PlaidC  3
Minor  1
N.Ire   18

I'm working on the gut instinct (from the Independence referendum) that the SNP support is a bit over-estimated in the polls, because they are so aggressive in their pitch that waverers don't want to admit being against them, but may vote against them in the polling booth.

I also think that the LDs will survive to a greater extent than they deserve from tactical voting. Although I'll be out ferrying voters to the polling booths in Sheffield Hallam to try to get rid of Clegg.

Anyone's guess really. The final result could be anything from Con 260-300 and Lab 250-290.

One thing's for sure. It won't be the Tory majority that d**khead was predicting last week.

[hoolahoop]

With the polls so close, it's a fool who put's hos balls on the line on the final result.

But since I'm a fool, I'll go for

CON  275
LAB  280
LIB  28
UKIP  2
Green  1
SNP  42
PlaidC  3
Minor  1
N.Ire   18

I'm working on the gut instinct (from the Independence referendum) that the SNP support is a bit over-estimated in the polls, because they are so aggressive in their pitch that waverers don't want to admit being against them, but may vote against them in the polling booth.

I also think that the LDs will survive to a greater extent than they deserve from tactical voting. Although I'll be out ferrying voters to the polling booths in Sheffield Hallam to try to get rid of Clegg.

Anyone's guess really. The final result could be anything from Con 260-300 and Lab 250-290.

One thing's for sure. It won't be the Tory majority that d**khead was predicting last week.

Right here's mine and BTW  I will also be ferrying both L/Dems and Tories in Sheff. Hallam....stay at home you're wasting your time Billy ! Overturning such a huge majority would be a miracle . A 3rd. placed Labour overturning a 15,000 majority. Jeez they (
Labour ) would deserve power if they could do that !

Conservative. 283
Labour............ 275
L/Dems..........   33
UKIP...............      2
Greens............      1
Galloway.........      1
Plaid C ............      4
N.Ireland..........    18
& SNP The rest (33). I too think they have been over-hyped .

There is going to be tactical voting the like we have never seen before IMO.

It is NOW time for some form of PR surely ?

[GazLaz]

DC just gone a shade of odds on to be PM after the election.


Get in.

[Muttley]

DC just gone a shade of odds on to be PM after the election.


Get in.

Do you understand how bookies set their odds?

[GazLaz]

Having been one yes.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz.

Over the past month, the polls haven't changed by so much as a quarter of one per-cent. Lab and Con are absolutely level pegging.

Yet the Tories are 1/5 to have the largest number of seats. And they are only 10-12/1 against having an overall majority (Lab 33-80/1).

Whatever is influencing the bookies' odds, it sure ain't any basic facts out there

[IC1967]

Gaz.

Over the past month, the polls haven't changed by so much as a quarter of one per-cent. Lab and Con are absolutely level pegging.

Yet the Tories are 1/5 to have the largest number of seats. And they are only 10-12/1 against having an overall majority (Lab 33-80/1).

Whatever is influencing the bookies' odds, it sure ain't any basic facts out there

You've changed your tune. Wasn't long ago you were quoting the bookies when it suited your point of view. Typical of you.

Just be grateful I let you off with that bet about who would win when the odds were massively in your favour.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Gaz.

Over the past month, the polls haven't changed by so much as a quarter of one per-cent. Lab and Con are absolutely level pegging.

Yet the Tories are 1/5 to have the largest number of seats. And they are only 10-12/1 against having an overall majority (Lab 33-80/1).

Whatever is influencing the bookies' odds, it sure ain't any basic facts out there

I'm guessing a lot of people believe in shy Tories. I expect the Tory and Lib DEm votes to be a little higher than expected.  Its all about the marginals though and the potential for a party with less votes overall winning is very real .

[IC1967]

Right. As electioneering has now stopped I think it's time to call the result of the poll.

Tories/UKIP 30

Labour 28

So by an overwhelming majority of two, I now officially declare this forum to be right wing.

For the purposes of this result I've decided to ignore the Greens and the LibDems and to just stick to the three main parties in the country. The Greens are ignored because they cannot be classed as left wing as they are so out of touch with reality there needs to be a new classification for them all on their own. The LibDems have also been ignored because it's hard to know what they stand for these days. They could be either right wing or left wing depending on which of the two main parties they decide to do a deal with.

Get in.

(Please note any further votes will now be ignored. You've had your chance).

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

The Shy Tory issue was a BIG effect in 1992. That became folklore. Since then polling companies have radically changed their approaches and there's little evidence of it these days.

[GazLaz]

Gaz.

Over the past month, the polls haven't changed by so much as a quarter of one per-cent. Lab and Con are absolutely level pegging.

Yet the Tories are 1/5 to have the largest number of seats. And they are only 10-12/1 against having an overall majority (Lab 33-80/1).

Whatever is influencing the bookies' odds, it sure ain't any basic facts out there

The polls are worthless really this time around. The knowledge people need to get the edge is inside info to who is prepared to work with who in the eventuality of a hung parliament. Betfair will know who the PM will be before the rest of us trust me.

[The Red Baron]

BFYP

The Shy Tory issue was a BIG effect in 1992. That became folklore. Since then polling companies have radically changed their approaches and there's little evidence of it these days.

BST. Are you saying that the methodologies don't take account of the situation in Scotland? Above you say that you think the polls have over-estimated the SNP vote because of their aggressive campaigning style. Like you, I think that was probably the case in the Referendum. Wouldn't the pollsters have found a way of teasing out the intentions of "shy non-Nats?"

[hoolahoop]

BFYP

The Shy Tory issue was a BIG effect in 1992. That became folklore. Since then polling companies have radically changed their approaches and there's little evidence of it these days.

I disagree but then I would wouldn't I?
I'm with BFYP the Tories and the L/Dems will be less inclined to share their voting intentions.
The L/Dem vote will hold up in their core areas and the UKIP vote will collapse once it dawns on these knobs that they are supporting sweet fa with little or no result.

Disaffected "supposed" UKIP supporters will return to their Tory roots and not risk a Labour Government.... Jeez that's an horrific thought !!
 

[Glyn_Wigley]

Right. As electioneering has now stopped I think it's time to call the result of the poll.

Tories/UKIP 30

Labour 28

So by an overwhelming majority of two, I now officially declare this forum to be right wing.

For the purposes of this result I've decided to ignore the Greens and the LibDems and to just stick to the three main parties in the country. The Greens are ignored because they cannot be classed as left wing as they are so out of touch with reality there needs to be a new classification for them all on their own. The LibDems have also been ignored because it's hard to know what they stand for these days. They could be either right wing or left wing depending on which of the two main parties they decide to do a deal with.

Get in.

(Please note any further votes will now be ignored. You've had your chance).

Polling closes at 10pm, not when you decide you like the result.

I wonder if Filo can list who's voted. I'm sure the usernames that have would be interesting to study...

[The Red Baron]

I thought it was a secret ballot! 

[Lipsy]

You're not suggesting our very own multiple personalities disorder sufferer might have tried to swing the vote in his/their favour?

That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?

[Copps is Magic]

The Tories are as right wing as Labour are left wing. That is, not very. Those distinctions don't mean diddly squat. That mad-mick has based his act on these distinctions is quite adorable. But 30 years in the past.

I'm not really bothered what will happen today. Hope the Greens get more votes than they did last time and hope there is a serious discussion about our antiquated voting system.

[IC1967]

You're not suggesting our very own multiple personalities disorder sufferer might have tried to swing the vote in his/their favour?

That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?

I'm quite happy for the mods to check for any voting irregularities. They won't find any.

I am IC1967 and I am one of a kind.

You lefties just need to get used to being in the minority from now on.

Get in.

[Lipsy]

The Tories are as right wing as Labour are left wing. That is, not very. Those distinctions don't mean diddly squat. That mad-mick has based his act on these distinctions is quite adorable. But 30 years in the past.

I'm not really bothered what will happen today. Hope the Greens get more votes than they did last time and hope there is a serious discussion about our antiquated voting system.

Whatever the outcome, I reckon that the major winners of this election will be a greater diversity of voting (as in, more people not *just* voting red or blue), and a genuine hunger for proportional representation. I will laugh my tits off if the Tories fail to govern after winning the largest share of the vote. Given that they were against it (which led to the Lib Dems vetoing the boundary changes which almost certainly would have ensured an outright victory for the Bullingdon Boys), it'd serve 'em right.

[Glyn_Wigley]

You're not suggesting our very own multiple personalities disorder sufferer might have tried to swing the vote in his/their favour?

That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?

It would be interesting to see how many of those who voted are 'regular' forum users, that's all...

[Glyn_Wigley]

I thought it was a secret ballot! 

I'm not asking to know how anybody voted!

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

The Shy Tory issue was a BIG effect in 1992. That became folklore. Since then polling companies have radically changed their approaches and there's little evidence of it these days.

BST. Are you saying that the methodologies don't take account of the situation in Scotland? Above you say that you think the polls have over-estimated the SNP vote because of their aggressive campaigning style. Like you, I think that was probably the case in the Referendum. Wouldn't the pollsters have found a way of teasing out the intentions of "shy non-Nats?"

TRB

It's about timescales. The pollsters had years to get to the bottom of the "Shy Tory" effect of 1992 (and it was already apparent, though not to the same extent in 1987).

The rise of the SNP has caught everyone by surprise. There'll be no way of calibrating approaches until after we have some election results in to see how the methods are working.

Similarly with UKIP. There is a consistent theme that UKIP get higher poll figures in on-line polls compared to telephone polls. No polling company is actively allowing for a Shy-Kipper effect in their figures, but if that is genuinely IS a Shy-Kipper effect, then the on-line pollsters will have significantly underestimated the UKIP vote. Which COULD end up affect a lot of marginal seats. UKIP are still unlikely to get more than 3-4 seats themselves, but they could well end up tipping the balance in a lot of other seats.

[Bentley Bullet]

You're not suggesting our very own multiple personalities disorder sufferer might have tried to swing the vote in his/their favour?

That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?

It would be interesting to see how many of those who voted are 'regular' forum users, that's all...

Well I voted! ...........

[Savvy]

Right. As electioneering has now stopped I think it's time to call the result of the poll.

Tories/UKIP 30

Labour 28

So by an overwhelming majority of two, I now officially declare this forum to be right wing.

For the purposes of this result I've decided to ignore the Greens and the LibDems and to just stick to the three main parties in the country. The Greens are ignored because they cannot be classed as left wing as they are so out of touch with reality there needs to be a new classification for them all on their own. The LibDems have also been ignored because it's hard to know what they stand for these days. They could be either right wing or left wing depending on which of the two main parties they decide to do a deal with.

Get in.

(Please note any further votes will now be ignored. You've had your chance).

Polling closes at 10pm, not when you decide you like the result.

I wonder if Filo can list who's voted. I'm sure the usernames that have would be interesting to study...

Boom!!! Roasted!!!

[IC1967]

Right. As electioneering has now stopped I think it's time to call the result of the poll.

Tories/UKIP 30

Labour 28

So by an overwhelming majority of two, I now officially declare this forum to be right wing.

For the purposes of this result I've decided to ignore the Greens and the LibDems and to just stick to the three main parties in the country. The Greens are ignored because they cannot be classed as left wing as they are so out of touch with reality there needs to be a new classification for them all on their own. The LibDems have also been ignored because it's hard to know what they stand for these days. They could be either right wing or left wing depending on which of the two main parties they decide to do a deal with.

Get in.

(Please note any further votes will now be ignored. You've had your chance).

Polling closes at 10pm, not when you decide you like the result.

I wonder if Filo can list who's voted. I'm sure the usernames that have would be interesting to study...

I hear what you say. As the voice of reason I'm prepared to compromise. Any votes cast before 8.15pm today will be counted. Any votes cast after this time will be invalid. I can't be fairer than that.

For your information I voted UKIP. If others feel they want forum members to know their allegiance then please feel free to declare your vote and your reasons why (if you want to).

Even though I've allowed extra time for you lefties to get your act together I still declare the forum is now officially right wing by a majority of one (30 to 29).

Get in.

[jucyberry]

Well put it like this, if I lived in Donny my X would have been for Ed. and my family all would have too.. As it is Jo Rust got our vote.. (she is hoping to be working for Ed......   )

[Lipsy]

I'll just leave this here... 

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tml1jteOUR0" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tml1jteOUR0</a>

[wilts rover]

I didn't vote for two reasons:

a) the poll is invalid as it does not contain a full list of all the parties standing in the election - including all the left-wing choices
b) I refuse on principle to participate in anything madmick has organised

[Lipsy]

And this... 

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FK-oWA7Oj8" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FK-oWA7Oj8</a>

[The Red Baron]

 Jo Rust

I bet she never sleeps.