Coronavirus

[BillyStubbsTears]

I guess there is a question as to how much internal conversation is both relevant and needs to be outed.  Is it not right that privately these discussions are had whether we like them or not and shouldn't they be judged solely on the final actions taken not what was discussed?

No of course you do not judge solely on outcomes. You judge on processes. What was known at the time. What options there were. What influences came to bear on decision making.

Remember, this is in light of a political atmosphere in which Johnson is hammering the line that the Govt did everything it could to reduce loss of life. If he was saying that with one side of his mouth and with the other side saying "f**k it, it's only 80 years olds dying", it is very important that that information is in the public domain.

Similarly, if by Autumn 2020 Johnson was working under the assumption that by blocking lockdowns, he was ever going to be able to avoid them on steroids down the line, there are massive questions on his judgement and who was influencing that. And remember, he's already kicked the public inquiry can far enough down the road that it will not report until after the next Election. So throwing some light on what was going on in No10 last year is very important for the democratic process.

[Metalmicky]

46k cases and 96 deaths recorded today.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

To be fair, the number of deaths is always high towards the middle of the week because this number reflects a lot of people who died over the weekend but whose death was only recorded yesterday.

But the figures are grim. Rolling 7 day average of daily deaths is now up to just shy of 50 and is doubling every 16-17 days. And the rolling average of new cases is just under 50,000 and again is doubling at a similar rate.

And the number of COVID hospital cases is doubling even faster - about every 13-14 days.

I cannot see any way we come out of this with peaks of less than 300 a day dying and 20k+ in hospital. And that is based on the number of new cases slowing down VERY soon. New cases have been doubling every 2-3 weeks now since the middle of May. If they keep on rising that fast for another 2-3 weeks we are in very, very serious trouble.

[no eyed deer]

To be fair, the number of deaths is always high towards the middle of the week because this number reflects a lot of people who died over the weekend but whose death was only recorded yesterday.

But the figures are grim. Rolling 7 day average of daily deaths is now up to just shy of 50 and is doubling every 16-17 days. And the rolling average of new cases is just under 50,000 and again is doubling at a similar rate.

And the number of COVID hospital cases is doubling even faster - about every 13-14 days.

I cannot see any way we come out of this with peaks of less than 300 a day dying and 20k+ in hospital. And that is based on the number of new cases slowing down VERY soon. New cases have been doubling every 2-3 weeks now since the middle of May. If they keep on rising that fast for another 2-3 weeks we are in very, very serious trouble.

Put you phone down, dont look at the news.

Life is good dont worry yourself to death.

[ravenrover]

Billy. If Cummings joined the Flat Earth Society, married David Icke and went on a mudering spree, you’d say ‘yes but what has any of that got to do with the bitter shit stirring regarding Johnson and his government? He should be respected and commended’.

Just to clarify, who are you saying should be respected and commended? You are surely not meaning Johnson are you?

[belton rover]

Billy. If Cummings joined the Flat Earth Society, married David Icke and went on a mudering spree, you’d say ‘yes but what has any of that got to do with the bitter shit stirring regarding Johnson and his government? He should be respected and commended’.

Just to clarify, who are you saying should be respected and commended? You are surely not meaning Johnson are you?

No Raven, I’m saying that Billy now thinks Cummings should be respected and commended. Look where the quotation marks start and end.

[wilts rover]

To be fair, the number of deaths is always high towards the middle of the week because this number reflects a lot of people who died over the weekend but whose death was only recorded yesterday.

But the figures are grim. Rolling 7 day average of daily deaths is now up to just shy of 50 and is doubling every 16-17 days. And the rolling average of new cases is just under 50,000 and again is doubling at a similar rate.

And the number of COVID hospital cases is doubling even faster - about every 13-14 days.

I cannot see any way we come out of this with peaks of less than 300 a day dying and 20k+ in hospital. And that is based on the number of new cases slowing down VERY soon. New cases have been doubling every 2-3 weeks now since the middle of May. If they keep on rising that fast for another 2-3 weeks we are in very, very serious trouble.

Put you phone down, dont look at the news.

Life is good dont worry yourself to death.

I'm alright and I don't give a monkeys for anyone else. And the government think we will get by on 'personal responsibility'!

[drfchound]

Cummings is firing off again.

Says he has text messages from last October with Johnson saying lockdowns don't work, only over 80s were dying, he didn't buy the over-stretched NHS line, economy comes first etc. No10 been asked for a response and haven't denied any of it.

And the really explosive one. Cummings claims Johnson was on the verge of going to see the Queen on 18 March last year at a time that loads of Downing Street staff had COVID. Cummings says he had to stop Johnson from going. No10 denies it but Kuenssberg reckons other Johnson advisers have confirmed it happened.

Watch this space.

Forgive me, but what the actual f**k is explosive about that? Yet another nothing to see here story

Is that the words of the Cummings who is a compulsive liar.
And now suddenly Kuensberg is the good reporter after apparently being shite for the last few years.

Who do you think was Kuensburgs inside informer when her and Peston were getting all the leaks from their source at No10?

I’m not doubting that ravenrover.
I was pointing out that after BST has criticised her reporting for God knows how long he was suddenly telling us how Kuesnsberg is suddenly doing a good job in confirming what DC is alleging.

[scawsby steve]

To be fair, the number of deaths is always high towards the middle of the week because this number reflects a lot of people who died over the weekend but whose death was only recorded yesterday.

But the figures are grim. Rolling 7 day average of daily deaths is now up to just shy of 50 and is doubling every 16-17 days. And the rolling average of new cases is just under 50,000 and again is doubling at a similar rate.

And the number of COVID hospital cases is doubling even faster - about every 13-14 days.

I cannot see any way we come out of this with peaks of less than 300 a day dying and 20k+ in hospital. And that is based on the number of new cases slowing down VERY soon. New cases have been doubling every 2-3 weeks now since the middle of May. If they keep on rising that fast for another 2-3 weeks we are in very, very serious trouble.

Put you phone down, dont look at the news.

Life is good dont worry yourself to death.

I'm alright and I don't give a monkeys for anyone else. And the government think we will get by on 'personal responsibility'!

Wilts, what the f*ck do you want us all to do? We've had our jabs, we wear masks in public indoor places, we use hand sanitiser. Who, apart from politicians and scientists, is benefitting from the grim daily figures being thrust at us? All they're doing is creating a fear factor among the public.

They should stop publishing the f*cking figures every day. Anyone morbid enough to want to see them could research them online. We KNOW the government's made a b*ll*cks of how they've handled most of this pandemic; we KNOW the scientists haven't got a clue of how to solve this virus.

If this is the future, then I'm glad I'm the age I am; but it's my grandkids I feel sorry for, and everyone else's kids and grandkids. What good is a life without entertainment and interaction with others?

[bpoolrover]

On a political front not on lives lost in the long run it won't matter what Cummings has said anyway, if he has evidence and boris knows it he will resign just before the enquiry on health grounds probably, in the meantime labour will catch up with the tories in the polls, tories will get a new leader and gain half the lead back and have a election and there is my prediction

[ravenrover]

Billy. If Cummings joined the Flat Earth Society, married David Icke and went on a mudering spree, you’d say ‘yes but what has any of that got to do with the bitter shit stirring regarding Johnson and his government? He should be respected and commended’.

Just to clarify, who are you saying should be respected and commended? You are surely not meaning Johnson are you?

No Raven, I’m saying that Billy now thinks Cummings should be respected and commended. Look where the quotation marks start and end.

Quotation marks? I went to a bad school then they taught me " " were quotation and ' was apostrophe. Perhaps you should have looked it up

[no eyed deer]

To be fair, the number of deaths is always high towards the middle of the week because this number reflects a lot of people who died over the weekend but whose death was only recorded yesterday.

But the figures are grim. Rolling 7 day average of daily deaths is now up to just shy of 50 and is doubling every 16-17 days. And the rolling average of new cases is just under 50,000 and again is doubling at a similar rate.

And the number of COVID hospital cases is doubling even faster - about every 13-14 days.

I cannot see any way we come out of this with peaks of less than 300 a day dying and 20k+ in hospital. And that is based on the number of new cases slowing down VERY soon. New cases have been doubling every 2-3 weeks now since the middle of May. If they keep on rising that fast for another 2-3 weeks we are in very, very serious trouble.

Put you phone down, dont look at the news.

Life is good dont worry yourself to death.

I'm alright and I don't give a monkeys for anyone else. And the government think we will get by on 'personal responsibility'!

You can lock yourself away..

[River Don]

To be fair, the number of deaths is always high towards the middle of the week because this number reflects a lot of people who died over the weekend but whose death was only recorded yesterday.

But the figures are grim. Rolling 7 day average of daily deaths is now up to just shy of 50 and is doubling every 16-17 days. And the rolling average of new cases is just under 50,000 and again is doubling at a similar rate.

And the number of COVID hospital cases is doubling even faster - about every 13-14 days.

I cannot see any way we come out of this with peaks of less than 300 a day dying and 20k+ in hospital. And that is based on the number of new cases slowing down VERY soon. New cases have been doubling every 2-3 weeks now since the middle of May. If they keep on rising that fast for another 2-3 weeks we are in very, very serious trouble.

Put you phone down, dont look at the news.

Life is good dont worry yourself to death.

I'm alright and I don't give a monkeys for anyone else. And the government think we will get by on 'personal responsibility'!

Wilts, what the f*ck do you want us all to do? We've had our jabs, we wear masks in public indoor places, we use hand sanitiser. Who, apart from politicians and scientists, is benefitting from the grim daily figures being thrust at us? All they're doing is creating a fear factor among the public.

They should stop publishing the f*cking figures every day. Anyone morbid enough to want to see them could research them online. We KNOW the government's made a b*ll*cks of how they've handled most of this pandemic; we KNOW the scientists haven't got a clue of how to solve this virus.

If this is the future, then I'm glad I'm the age I am; but it's my grandkids I feel sorry for, and everyone else's kids and grandkids. What good is a life without entertainment and interaction with others?

Eventually will reach herd immunity one way or the other. It will slow down and eventually life will become more normal.

Those of us tearing our hair out at the current approach of the government are frustrated because we can see there is a way out of this that would be less devasting for health and the economy.

If only they could be more patient and more resolute.

[belton rover]

Billy. If Cummings joined the Flat Earth Society, married David Icke and went on a mudering spree, you’d say ‘yes but what has any of that got to do with the bitter shit stirring regarding Johnson and his government? He should be respected and commended’.

Just to clarify, who are you saying should be respected and commended? You are surely not meaning Johnson are you?

No Raven, I’m saying that Billy now thinks Cummings should be respected and commended. Look where the quotation marks start and end.

Quotation marks? I went to a bad school then they taught me " " were quotation and ' was apostrophe. Perhaps you should have looked it up

Billy. If Cummings joined the Flat Earth Society, married David Icke and went on a mudering spree, you’d say ‘yes but what has any of that got to do with the bitter shit stirring regarding Johnson and his government? He should be respected and commended’.

Just to clarify, who are you saying should be respected and commended? You are surely not meaning Johnson are you?

No Raven, I’m saying that Billy now thinks Cummings should be respected and commended. Look where the quotation marks start and end.

Quotation marks? I went to a bad school then they taught me " " were quotation and ' was apostrophe. Perhaps you should have looked it up

Evidently, you did go to a bad school.

Either that or you didn’t listen.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Anecdotal but it doesn't look good for the "let's all be jolly cautious" approach.

Just been to the gym for the first time since Freedom Day. They've immediately done away with all social distancing measures, and I'd guess less than 30% of people were using the antiviral spray to clean down equipment after use. Last week it was pretty much 100%.

[River Don]

There is a saying in investing. Be greedy when all are afraid and be afraid when all are greedy.

At the moment I'm following the spirit of that advice. We are being as careful as we can, staying out of shops and crowded areas. Now is the time to be wary whilst so many are letting their guard down.

I won't be surprised if there aren't problems in a few weeks time. Whether there is or not we'll have prepared for it a little and by then all our family should all be fully vaccinated.

[bpoolrover]

Anecdotal but it doesn't look good for the "let's all be jolly cautious" approach.

Just been to the gym for the first time since Freedom Day. They've immediately done away with all social distancing measures, and I'd guess less than 30% of people were using the antiviral spray to clean down equipment after use. Last week it was pretty much 100%.

the gym I go to has been great most of time, but last few weeks no one follows anything hardly same in the pubs, masks when walking round went awhile ago, I think people are just fed up

[drfchound]

There is a saying in investing. Be greedy when all are afraid and be afraid when all are greedy.

At the moment I'm following the spirit of that advice. We are being as careful as we can, staying out of shops and crowded areas. Now is the time to be wary whilst so many are letting their guard down.

I won't be surprised if there aren't problems in a few weeks time. Whether there is or not we'll have prepared for it a little and by then all our family should all be fully vaccinated.

A fair assessment RD.

[SydneyRover]

what happens if the covid app gets infected with a virus?

[Nudga]

what happens if the covid app gets infected with a virus?

Seeing as though the WEF and partners had a planning exercise on a cyber attack that will dwarf the covid 19 pandemic, that app having a virus will be the least of your problems.
Please bear in mind they did a similar exercise in New York in  October 2019 for pandemic exercise. Event 201 it was called.

[SydneyRover]

what happens if the covid app gets infected with a virus?

Seeing as though the WEF and partners had a planning exercise on a cyber attack that will dwarf the covid 19 pandemic, that app having a virus will be the least of your problems.
Please bear in mind they did a similar exercise in New York in  October 2019 for pandemic exercise. Event 201 it was called.

'ping'

[Nudga]

what happens if the covid app gets infected with a virus?

Seeing as though the WEF and partners had a planning exercise on a cyber attack that will dwarf the covid 19 pandemic, that app having a virus will be the least of your problems.
Please bear in mind they did a similar exercise in New York in  October 2019 for pandemic exercise. Event 201 it was called.

'ping'

Yep, that's the sound you'll hear at the supermarket till when you're denied buying that steak because you've already had your quoter of meat for the month.
Or when filling up your car but you've already travelled too far that month.
Digital pass.

Access denied.

[no eyed deer]

what happens if the covid app gets infected with a virus?

Seeing as though the WEF and partners had a planning exercise on a cyber attack that will dwarf the covid 19 pandemic, that app having a virus will be the least of your problems.
Please bear in mind they did a similar exercise in New York in  October 2019 for pandemic exercise. Event 201 it was called.

'ping'

Yep, that's the sound you'll hear at the supermarket till when you're denied buying that steak because you've already had your quoter of meat for the month.
Or when filling up your car but you've already travelled too far that month.
Digital pass.

Access denied.

Or taking a pal to space for a 15 min joyride.... wait a minute !!

[pib]

Been following this thread all the way through but rarely posting on it, as I'm less clued up than many.

I don't mean this in an antagonistic way, but I'm curious as to what your response would be Nudga to the current situation? You've expressed an anti-lockdown and anti-covid vaccine stance throughout. I'm with you on some of the bullshit rules and how trust has been eroded massively by the way it has been handled politically, but I'm just interested to know what the alternatives would be if we didn't have lockdowns/jabs or both? As far as I can see the only other way is to let everyone catch it, which seems to me like it would be a disaster for hospitals, and obviously death tolls. I don't have extremely strong opinions though because I don't know enough about any alternatives and what they would be. I'd be curious to find out.

My personal stance, as I'm sure many others' is, is in between the two extremes. Not a perfect analogy but I view it a bit like driving. I passed a test, have a licence, keep my car maintained, hold insurance, and drive within the rules of the road... there will never be no risk to me or others, but as long as I take those precautions then I feel fine about driving every day.

By the same token I expect to be back at the Keepmoat for the Wimbledon game in a few weeks and hoping to go about my life as much as possible. I have followed the rules for the past 18 months (and continue to do so) and will have been double jabbed. There will never be no risk of catching the virus and getting ill, and others catching it as well, but having taken all the precautions available I feel that it is logical to return to living your life. Just the same as there being 25k people a year killed or seriously injured in road accidents, but still going out in the car every day.

If I have to show proof of my vaccines on an app before I can go into the Keepmoat, I'm OK with that too for the time being. To continue the analogy, I would expect to have to prove I have a driving licence if pulled over in the car as well.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Some fair points to me in there Pib. At some point we of course have to deal with the residual risk. The question is when.

My concern is that we are now heading into yet another wave where there will be several hundred people a day dying for an extended period, and hospitals again being unable to work as normal because there will be 20,000 people in hospital beds with COVID.

I do agree with the idea of having a sensible approach to risk. But your road deaths figure is way out. The actual figure of annual road deaths in the UK is about 1800, or about 5 per day. About  2-5% of the daily deaths we are going to see from COVID in this wave.

Regarding those who are sceptical of some of the issues related to COVID, I just don't get the logic. They want no lockdowns but they don't want the NHS overwhelmed. They want no vaccines, but they don't want to have to modify their own behaviour. There's something medieval about the rejection of basic logic and the imperviousness to fact-based arguments.

[normal rules]

Covid isn’t going away. Is the risk of someone dying from it this month any different to this time next year.? I guess that’s the question being asked at SAGE level.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The overall threat will be WAY lower next year, if only because more people will be vaccinated and the virus will find it harder to spread.

[River Don]

Covid isn’t going away. Is the risk of someone dying from it this month any different to this time next year.? I guess that’s the question being asked at SAGE level.

That risk will still be greater now because there are still a considerable number of people yet to be fully inoculated.

Going forward when all the family is fully inoculated I'll feel able to do more but I'll still have to be a bit cautious because my Mum is in a retirement complex full of vulnerable people and I visit regularly. And my sister has an underlying health condition.

We're still undergoing what I'm hoping will turn out to be the final severe wave of this thing. Hopefully then the numbers will level off. God forbid another highly infectious varient emerges.

[pib]

Some fair points to me in there Pib. At some point we of course have to deal with the residual risk. The question is when.

My concern is that we are now heading into yet another wave where there will be several hundred people a day dying for an extended period, and hospitals again being unable to work as normal because there will be 20,000 people in hospital beds with COVID.

I do agree with the idea of having a sensible approach to risk. But your road deaths figure is way out. The actual figure of annual road deaths in the UK is about 1800, or about 5 per day. About  2-5% of the daily deaths we are going to see from COVID in this wave.

Regarding those who are sceptical of some of the issues related to COVID, I just don't get the logic. They want no lockdowns but they don't want the NHS overwhelmed. They want no vaccines, but they don't want to have to modify their own behaviour. There's something medieval about the rejection of basic logic and the imperviousness to fact-based arguments.

Apologies Billy, bang to rights on the road deaths. It was deaths AND serious casualties I was quoting, which I completely misread. I've updated my post so as not to mislead.

That'll teach me to focus at work instead of messing about posting on here!

[BillyStubbsTears]

No probs Pib. Easy mistake to make. I make plenty in my posts.