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Author Topic: Not worried  (Read 5422 times)

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dickos1

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 16912
Re: Not worried
« Reply #90 on September 10, 2023, 08:04:07 pm by dickos1 »
Impossible to compare with the Stockport. Their underlying numbers were saying they were one of the best teams in L2 from very early in the season. Ours are saying we are rubbish at this same point. Stockports results improved to align with performances. Our results are a reflection of the performances, albeit we deserve more than 2 points. We have been the worst team in the league over the first 7 games. 

There is no way in the games v MK dons, Swindon and today that we are performing as the worst side in the league.
All 3 games produced performances that could have easily brought us 3 wins, were showing now that we are a good side.
The goals against us today were very unlucky, I think there’s every chance we can go on a run over the next few weeks

But the reality is we only got 1 from the 3 games you’ve mentioned. We’ve only got 1 point from a possible 21. I’d argue that comfortable makes us the worst performing side so far this season.

Completely Missing the point of the discussion though,
We were comparing with Stockport last season and gaz said their performances last season were better than the results showed.
We can also say this over the last 3 league and 1 cup game

But we've had worse xG than the opposition in the last 3? Haven't had better xG than another team since Harrogate, and it was February before that.

The performances in the last 3 games have been a significant improvement on the ones prior and on anything we produced last season regardless of XG stats.



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ncRover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3485
Re: Not worried
« Reply #91 on September 10, 2023, 09:00:57 pm by ncRover »
Impossible to compare with the Stockport. Their underlying numbers were saying they were one of the best teams in L2 from very early in the season. Ours are saying we are rubbish at this same point. Stockports results improved to align with performances. Our results are a reflection of the performances, albeit we deserve more than 2 points. We have been the worst team in the league over the first 7 games. 

There is no way in the games v MK dons, Swindon and today that we are performing as the worst side in the league.
All 3 games produced performances that could have easily brought us 3 wins, were showing now that we are a good side.
The goals against us today were very unlucky, I think there’s every chance we can go on a run over the next few weeks

But the reality is we only got 1 from the 3 games you’ve mentioned. We’ve only got 1 point from a possible 21. I’d argue that comfortable makes us the worst performing side so far this season.

Completely Missing the point of the discussion though,
We were comparing with Stockport last season and gaz said their performances last season were better than the results showed.
We can also say this over the last 3 league and 1 cup game

But we've had worse xG than the opposition in the last 3? Haven't had better xG than another team since Harrogate, and it was February before that.

We had a better xG than MK dons in that game. 1.1 to their 0.75. A team up there and we were away from home.

Everton performance was superb.

Swindon stats not a fair reflection as had 10 men for more than half of the game. But kept a clean sheet against a prolific attack still. I think we’d have won with 11 men with how Ironside was playing.

Wrexham just had better players and was a fair result. But again a very tough game away from home on a dry pitch better suited for their direct play.

ncRover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3485
Re: Not worried
« Reply #92 on September 10, 2023, 09:35:53 pm by ncRover »
We had 0.72 xG to Wrexham’s 1.43 xG

But even then that doesn’t account for things like poor final balls.

We had more possession v league favourites away from home.

What was Faals xG for the actual goal?

0.31. The clearest cut chance of the game statistically.

GazLaz

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 12838
Re: Not worried
« Reply #93 on September 10, 2023, 09:38:52 pm by GazLaz »
Impossible to compare with the Stockport. Their underlying numbers were saying they were one of the best teams in L2 from very early in the season. Ours are saying we are rubbish at this same point. Stockports results improved to align with performances. Our results are a reflection of the performances, albeit we deserve more than 2 points. We have been the worst team in the league over the first 7 games. 

There is no way in the games v MK dons, Swindon and today that we are performing as the worst side in the league.
All 3 games produced performances that could have easily brought us 3 wins, were showing now that we are a good side.
The goals against us today were very unlucky, I think there’s every chance we can go on a run over the next few weeks

But the reality is we only got 1 from the 3 games you’ve mentioned. We’ve only got 1 point from a possible 21. I’d argue that comfortable makes us the worst performing side so far this season.

Completely Missing the point of the discussion though,
We were comparing with Stockport last season and gaz said their performances last season were better than the results showed.
We can also say this over the last 3 league and 1 cup game

But we've had worse xG than the opposition in the last 3? Haven't had better xG than another team since Harrogate, and it was February before that.

We had a better xG than MK dons in that game. 1.1 to their 0.75. A team up there and we were away from home.

Everton performance was superb.

Swindon stats not a fair reflection as had 10 men for more than half of the game. But kept a clean sheet against a prolific attack still. I think we’d have won with 11 men with how Ironside was playing.

Wrexham just had better players and was a fair result. But again a very tough game away from home on a dry pitch better suited for their direct play.

If we are going down the data route, the MK was pretty much even Steven on that front.

Wrexham were no more direct than us I don’t think. Our plan was to knock it around the defence for 10 passes then launch it forward. The dry pitch should have suited us as well then!


ncRover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3485
Re: Not worried
« Reply #94 on September 11, 2023, 06:26:26 am by ncRover »
Impossible to compare with the Stockport. Their underlying numbers were saying they were one of the best teams in L2 from very early in the season. Ours are saying we are rubbish at this same point. Stockports results improved to align with performances. Our results are a reflection of the performances, albeit we deserve more than 2 points. We have been the worst team in the league over the first 7 games. 

There is no way in the games v MK dons, Swindon and today that we are performing as the worst side in the league.
All 3 games produced performances that could have easily brought us 3 wins, were showing now that we are a good side.
The goals against us today were very unlucky, I think there’s every chance we can go on a run over the next few weeks

But the reality is we only got 1 from the 3 games you’ve mentioned. We’ve only got 1 point from a possible 21. I’d argue that comfortable makes us the worst performing side so far this season.

Completely Missing the point of the discussion though,
We were comparing with Stockport last season and gaz said their performances last season were better than the results showed.
We can also say this over the last 3 league and 1 cup game

But we've had worse xG than the opposition in the last 3? Haven't had better xG than another team since Harrogate, and it was February before that.

We had a better xG than MK dons in that game. 1.1 to their 0.75. A team up there and we were away from home.

Everton performance was superb.

Swindon stats not a fair reflection as had 10 men for more than half of the game. But kept a clean sheet against a prolific attack still. I think we’d have won with 11 men with how Ironside was playing.

Wrexham just had better players and was a fair result. But again a very tough game away from home on a dry pitch better suited for their direct play.

If we are going down the data route, the MK was pretty much even Steven on that front.

Wrexham were no more direct than us I don’t think. Our plan was to knock it around the defence for 10 passes then launch it forward. The dry pitch should have suited us as well then!

“Wrexham were no more direct than us”

Their main threat was launching it in to the box from Tozer’s ginormous throw in?

Is it an even game with MK if we had:

More possession
More xG
More shots
More shots on target
More shots in the box
More passes in opposition half

mushRTID

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 7561
Re: Not worried
« Reply #95 on September 11, 2023, 06:46:34 am by mushRTID »
Impossible to compare with the Stockport. Their underlying numbers were saying they were one of the best teams in L2 from very early in the season. Ours are saying we are rubbish at this same point. Stockports results improved to align with performances. Our results are a reflection of the performances, albeit we deserve more than 2 points. We have been the worst team in the league over the first 7 games. 

There is no way in the games v MK dons, Swindon and today that we are performing as the worst side in the league.
All 3 games produced performances that could have easily brought us 3 wins, were showing now that we are a good side.
The goals against us today were very unlucky, I think there’s every chance we can go on a run over the next few weeks

But the reality is we only got 1 from the 3 games you’ve mentioned. We’ve only got 1 point from a possible 21. I’d argue that comfortable makes us the worst performing side so far this season.

Completely Missing the point of the discussion though,
We were comparing with Stockport last season and gaz said their performances last season were better than the results showed.
We can also say this over the last 3 league and 1 cup game

But we've had worse xG than the opposition in the last 3? Haven't had better xG than another team since Harrogate, and it was February before that.

We had a better xG than MK dons in that game. 1.1 to their 0.75. A team up there and we were away from home.

Everton performance was superb.

Swindon stats not a fair reflection as had 10 men for more than half of the game. But kept a clean sheet against a prolific attack still. I think we’d have won with 11 men with how Ironside was playing.

Wrexham just had better players and was a fair result. But again a very tough game away from home on a dry pitch better suited for their direct play.

If we are going down the data route, the MK was pretty much even Steven on that front.

Wrexham were no more direct than us I don’t think. Our plan was to knock it around the defence for 10 passes then launch it forward. The dry pitch should have suited us as well then!



I really don’t agree they were no more direct than us. I’m not sure how anybody who watched that could come to that conclusion.

Even as the ref was about to blow the final whistle, everyone around me was screaming for us to get it in the box but we were pissing around with it. I don’t think Wrexham would have had that problem.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2023, 09:01:03 am by mushRTID »

ncRover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3485
Re: Not worried
« Reply #96 on September 13, 2023, 09:04:14 am by ncRover »
Impossible to compare with the Stockport. Their underlying numbers were saying they were one of the best teams in L2 from very early in the season. Ours are saying we are rubbish at this same point. Stockports results improved to align with performances. Our results are a reflection of the performances, albeit we deserve more than 2 points. We have been the worst team in the league over the first 7 games. 

There is no way in the games v MK dons, Swindon and today that we are performing as the worst side in the league.
All 3 games produced performances that could have easily brought us 3 wins, were showing now that we are a good side.
The goals against us today were very unlucky, I think there’s every chance we can go on a run over the next few weeks

But the reality is we only got 1 from the 3 games you’ve mentioned. We’ve only got 1 point from a possible 21. I’d argue that comfortable makes us the worst performing side so far this season.

Completely Missing the point of the discussion though,
We were comparing with Stockport last season and gaz said their performances last season were better than the results showed.
We can also say this over the last 3 league and 1 cup game

But we've had worse xG than the opposition in the last 3? Haven't had better xG than another team since Harrogate, and it was February before that.

We had a better xG than MK dons in that game. 1.1 to their 0.75. A team up there and we were away from home.

Everton performance was superb.

Swindon stats not a fair reflection as had 10 men for more than half of the game. But kept a clean sheet against a prolific attack still. I think we’d have won with 11 men with how Ironside was playing.

Wrexham just had better players and was a fair result. But again a very tough game away from home on a dry pitch better suited for their direct play.

If we are going down the data route, the MK was pretty much even Steven on that front.

Wrexham were no more direct than us I don’t think. Our plan was to knock it around the defence for 10 passes then launch it forward. The dry pitch should have suited us as well then!

“Wrexham were no more direct than us”

Their main threat was launching it in to the box from Tozer’s ginormous throw in?

Is it an even game with MK if we had:

More possession
More xG
More shots
More shots on target
More shots in the box
More passes in opposition half

I guess Rovers were the better side that day then Gaz  :thumbsup:

GazLaz

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 12838
Re: Not worried
« Reply #97 on September 13, 2023, 01:09:42 pm by GazLaz »
Impossible to compare with the Stockport. Their underlying numbers were saying they were one of the best teams in L2 from very early in the season. Ours are saying we are rubbish at this same point. Stockports results improved to align with performances. Our results are a reflection of the performances, albeit we deserve more than 2 points. We have been the worst team in the league over the first 7 games. 

There is no way in the games v MK dons, Swindon and today that we are performing as the worst side in the league.
All 3 games produced performances that could have easily brought us 3 wins, were showing now that we are a good side.
The goals against us today were very unlucky, I think there’s every chance we can go on a run over the next few weeks

But the reality is we only got 1 from the 3 games you’ve mentioned. We’ve only got 1 point from a possible 21. I’d argue that comfortable makes us the worst performing side so far this season.

Completely Missing the point of the discussion though,
We were comparing with Stockport last season and gaz said their performances last season were better than the results showed.
We can also say this over the last 3 league and 1 cup game

But we've had worse xG than the opposition in the last 3? Haven't had better xG than another team since Harrogate, and it was February before that.

We had a better xG than MK dons in that game. 1.1 to their 0.75. A team up there and we were away from home.

Everton performance was superb.

Swindon stats not a fair reflection as had 10 men for more than half of the game. But kept a clean sheet against a prolific attack still. I think we’d have won with 11 men with how Ironside was playing.

Wrexham just had better players and was a fair result. But again a very tough game away from home on a dry pitch better suited for their direct play.

If we are going down the data route, the MK was pretty much even Steven on that front.

Wrexham were no more direct than us I don’t think. Our plan was to knock it around the defence for 10 passes then launch it forward. The dry pitch should have suited us as well then!



I really don’t agree they were no more direct than us. I’m not sure how anybody who watched that could come to that conclusion.

Even as the ref was about to blow the final whistle, everyone around me was screaming for us to get it in the box but we were pissing around with it. I don’t think Wrexham would have had that problem.

We played a lot of pointless, unthreatening passes around at the back but our only teal method of getting into the final third was the long ball.

GazLaz

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 12838
Re: Not worried
« Reply #98 on September 13, 2023, 01:18:45 pm by GazLaz »
Impossible to compare with the Stockport. Their underlying numbers were saying they were one of the best teams in L2 from very early in the season. Ours are saying we are rubbish at this same point. Stockports results improved to align with performances. Our results are a reflection of the performances, albeit we deserve more than 2 points. We have been the worst team in the league over the first 7 games. 

There is no way in the games v MK dons, Swindon and today that we are performing as the worst side in the league.
All 3 games produced performances that could have easily brought us 3 wins, were showing now that we are a good side.
The goals against us today were very unlucky, I think there’s every chance we can go on a run over the next few weeks

But the reality is we only got 1 from the 3 games you’ve mentioned. We’ve only got 1 point from a possible 21. I’d argue that comfortable makes us the worst performing side so far this season.

Completely Missing the point of the discussion though,
We were comparing with Stockport last season and gaz said their performances last season were better than the results showed.
We can also say this over the last 3 league and 1 cup game

But we've had worse xG than the opposition in the last 3? Haven't had better xG than another team since Harrogate, and it was February before that.

We had a better xG than MK dons in that game. 1.1 to their 0.75. A team up there and we were away from home.

Everton performance was superb.

Swindon stats not a fair reflection as had 10 men for more than half of the game. But kept a clean sheet against a prolific attack still. I think we’d have won with 11 men with how Ironside was playing.

Wrexham just had better players and was a fair result. But again a very tough game away from home on a dry pitch better suited for their direct play.

If we are going down the data route, the MK was pretty much even Steven on that front.

Wrexham were no more direct than us I don’t think. Our plan was to knock it around the defence for 10 passes then launch it forward. The dry pitch should have suited us as well then!

“Wrexham were no more direct than us”

Their main threat was launching it in to the box from Tozer’s ginormous throw in?

Is it an even game with MK if we had:

More possession
More xG
More shots
More shots on target
More shots in the box
More passes in opposition half

MK are literally playing a counter attacking style so they let teams have the ball to try and spring on them. Any possession based stat is meaningless. Shot xG is fairly meaningless in quantifying the general performance of a team on the day.

I work with models that are even better than what a bookmaker would use. They take into account every action that takes place on the pitch, gives it a value and works out team performance strength at the end of the game. If you want to use data to prove a point, 0.97 v 0.95 was the result on the best piece of modelled data available. That’s pretty even to me.

ncRover

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  • Posts: 3485
Re: Not worried
« Reply #99 on September 13, 2023, 01:58:54 pm by ncRover »
Fair enough, thanks for that

Upton Rover

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  • Posts: 1549
Re: Not worried
« Reply #100 on September 14, 2023, 01:59:15 pm by Upton Rover »
Shocking start to the season, I’m sure we all expected more, or we’re those expectations a little optimistic?
No moaning from fans YET, Still got my trust in GM to turn things around but we need to turn that corner very soon.

Canadian Rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2004
Re: Not worried
« Reply #101 on May 06, 2024, 10:35:01 pm by Canadian Rover »
I still predict a promotion party at Wembley this season!!

 

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