Coronavirus

[Metalmicky]

Also more worryingly are we overstating our death rates?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392

As for offices, I see the point I really do, but I don't think it wise, are those jobs worth sacrificing to risk lives?  I'm glad it isn't my decision, what a nightmare.

Similar article here...

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/

[selby]

  According to the experts, anyone who has ever tested positive for Covid 19, recovers but at a later date die of another unrelated illness, we are recording it as a covid death.
  Therefore if records are continued long enough the death total will reach 290,000 + and disregard any other reason for death.
  The question is, Just how much worse are we or better than other countries are we really? as the figures are not like for like.
   Other questions are Why? was It intentional? if it was intentional to skewer the figures, who would be the beneficiaries?
   There is too much money, too many lives affected, too many  political slurs and criticisms and personal attacks not to get to the bottom of this. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Also more worryingly are we overstating our death rates?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392

As for offices, I see the point I really do, but I don't think it wise, are those jobs worth sacrificing to risk lives?  I'm glad it isn't my decision, what a nightmare.

Similar article here...

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/

That is certainly something to be looked at, but I'd be astonished if it turned out to have a significant effect on the overall number. The pattern of infection levels and timings and the death levels and timings tie in very closely with other countries all round the world.

The cynic in me says it is Hancock doing precisely what he seems to have done - giving people who want to give him the benefit of the doubt something to latch onto. People like Selby who are desperate for something to buttress their beliefs that we are English so we cannot have f**ked up on this while the foreigners got their shit together.

I'd have a fiver bet that there's no more than a slack handful of deaths that this affects. 1000 at the outer limits top value. Probably more likely to be less than 100. Out of 50,000 deaths.

BFYP
I fully understand the argument about balance between saving lives and saving jobs. My point, as I have made regularly over the past few months is that other countries in Europe have both ground down the infection rates, and consequent death rates to far lower numbers than we have, AND reopened their economies (and are projected to have much less severe economic hits than we are). And as Simon Wren-Lewis (the leading economist who was studying the economic consequences of pandemics long before any of us were thinking about it), there is no tension between reducing the deaths and reducing the economic hit. The better you grind down the virus, the more fully you can reopen your economy.

This Govt took two key policy decisions.

1) They CHOSE to lock down later in our outbreak than anywhere else in Europe bar Italy and Sweden. That is why we have had the highest number of deaths and the longest, most economically damaging lockdown.
2) They CHOSE to start releasing the lockdown at far higher ongoing levels of infection than pretty much anywhere in Europe. That is why our ongoing infection rate has settled down to a level far higher than in any comparable European country. We CHOSE to "run it hot". That will inevitably constrain the degree to which we can safely re-open the economy without risking a second wave.

It'll be fascinating, one day, to see the inquest look into the justifications for those two decisions.

[i_ateallthepies]

The return to the office will be an economic decision.

With many businesses unexpectedly finding their staff are actually more productive working at home and all the savings that can be made, never mind the safety considerations, many won't be returning, no matter how much Boris wants it.

I think what we're going to see are businesses moving into smaller premises and only requiring staff come into the office occasionally.

Setting aside the pandemic considerations, RD because it won't forever be a factor, employers still hold the same duty of care for their employees whether working on site or working from home and my guess is employers will be far less likely to concern themselves with the safety of their home office setup than if they were working right under their nose.

[albie]

By way of context, as Johnson and Co rebrand various announcements, and move money from one pot to another, is the liklihood of a second winter spike;
https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sciences

So bear in mind where we are heading without a vaccine or effective treatment.
Things might change, and we need them to, but don't be misled by the smoke and mirrors from the government.

As BST pointed out, Johnson is now going against the advice of the CSO Vallance, who got his strike in first about opening up.
Wing and a prayer, anyone!

[selby]

  Billy,  The cynic in me says that there is a little bit of fear in your post and hope that certain political gain is not found out to be behind the figures.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

You need to keep that cynic in you in a box then, because it clearly hasn't got a f**king clue what it is talking about.

I would be delighted if it turns out that we have overcounted the CV-19 deaths by 10,000.

Do you want to have a bet on whether we have? Or are you just fishing again?

[River Don]

Another day, another thousand odd jobs to go in hospitality.

This time it's Ask Italian and Zizzi, 75 another restaurants to close.

[wilts rover]

  Billy,  The cynic in me says that there is a little bit of fear in your post and hope that certain political gain is not found out to be behind the figures.

Selby, the figures are counted, collated, analysed and presented by a Tory Government led by Dominic Cummings who is a self-proffessed 'super-forecaster' when it comes to data.

Are you saying they don't know what they are talking about and can't be trusted?

[SydneyRover]

the abnormal death rate has shown the the figures for this year are a lot higher, consistently higher.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53233066

[BillyStubbsTears]

  Billy,  The cynic in me says that there is a little bit of fear in your post and hope that certain political gain is not found out to be behind the figures.

I have to say that, once again this is a really unpleasant view into your psyche.

Either you are WUMing again on a topic that has left 70,000 Britons dead, in which case look up Rule of Goats.

Or you actually think that people who disagree with your politics actually want this epidemic to be worse than it is. In which case, look for where you lost your soul along the way.

[River Don]

By way of context, as Johnson and Co rebrand various announcements, and move money from one pot to another, is the liklihood of a second winter spike;
https://acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/prepare-now-for-a-winter-covid-19-peak-warns-academy-of-medical-sciences

So bear in mind where we are heading without a vaccine or effective treatment.
Things might change, and we need them to, but don't be misled by the smoke and mirrors from the government.

As BST pointed out, Johnson is now going against the advice of the CSO Vallance, who got his strike in first about opening up.
Wing and a prayer, anyone!

Wing and a prayer indeed.

We have already been given an insight into what can happen when the responsibility is handed to employers about whether or not it is safe to return to work. Whilst financially stable businesses with large numbers of office workers are likely to have sensible discussions about what risk levels are acceptable with staff, it's not those businesses we need to worry about.

It's places like the clothing factory in Leicester, where corners are cut and standards are not always adhered to that we have to worry about.

[albie]

Summary update on the Cummings Project Cull here;
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/07/13/the-governments-ten-biggest-coronavirus-lies-unmasked/

Beware of Wolves in Sheep's clothing is all I can say!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Another day, another thousand odd jobs to go in hospitality.

This time it's Ask Italian and Zizzi, 75 another restaurants to close.

Personal opinion but the trend is that pretty average places like that are struggling most.  These were businesses already in trouble because they aren't that good. People want more now than these places offer.

Boris is trying to be optimistic clearly to get the economy going that's the strategy. It is unlikely to work.

[drfchound]

Hermes created ten thousand jobs.

[SydneyRover]

Johnson has has infected the whole cabinet with liar's disease.

''Chief nurse was dropped from briefings after refusing to back Cummings
Ruth May tells MPs she was told she was no longer needed after failing to back Johnson adviser''

''Ministers and No 10 have denied reports that May was stood down over Cummings. Aides to the prime minister briefed journalists at the time that she may not have made it to the briefing because she could have been stuck in traffic''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/20/englands-chief-nurse-dropped-from-covid-19-briefing-after-refusing-to-back-cummings-ruth-may

[BillyStubbsTears]

I wonder if that was the same "aide to the PM" who briefed journalists that a Labour activist had assaulted a Tory party worker outside a hospital two days before the Election in December? (Plot spoiler - there had been no assault, but the story went viral.)

You'd think these journalists might have a bit of self-respect and ask the "aide" for evidence next time Domin...sorry, he or she tells them a story, wouldn't you?

[Filo]

That’ll be Ruth May who says the rules were there for all including herself, and then went on to have a massive change in haiR style after her first appearance at the briefs, during lockdown when no hairdressers were supposed to be open

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hermes created ten thousand jobs.

Actually, created 9,000 opportunities for people to work as contractors with no requirement for them to be given any work or paid minimum wage rates when they do work, and no sick pay or holiday pay.

At a time when we are looking at 4-5million on the dole this autumn, that's an example of the most rapacious form of exploitation of desperate people.

[scawsby steve]

The ambiguity of conflicting scientific reports on this virus is certainly confusing me just now. Last week we had the King's College report on research that showed that antibodies to the virus only lasted a few months, casting doubts on the effectiveness of a vaccine.

Then a few days later we had scientists at Oxford University ecstatic about a new vaccine that dealt with antibodies and T cells, was doing well in clinical trials, and could possibly be rolled out with 2 billion doses by October at the earliest.

Then today we have Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar telling the HOC Health Committee that Coronavirus will probably be with us for decades to come, and even a vaccine will probably fail to eliminate it.

Who the f*ck do we believe here?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

They can't possibly know yet, even the bloody plague is still here, it's probably going to be another virus we will live with forever.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The ambiguity of conflicting scientific reports on this virus is certainly confusing me just now. Last week we had the King's College report on research that showed that antibodies to the virus only lasted a few months, casting doubts on the effectiveness of a vaccine.

Then a few days later we had scientists at Oxford University ecstatic about a new vaccine that dealt with antibodies and T cells, was doing well in clinical trials, and could possibly be rolled out with 2 billion doses by October at the earliest.

Then today we have Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar telling the HOC Health Committee that Coronavirus will probably be with us for decades to come, and even a vaccine will probably fail to eliminate it.

Who the f*ck do we believe here?

There is nothing whatsoever contradictory about any of those statements.

[scawsby steve]

The ambiguity of conflicting scientific reports on this virus is certainly confusing me just now. Last week we had the King's College report on research that showed that antibodies to the virus only lasted a few months, casting doubts on the effectiveness of a vaccine.

Then a few days later we had scientists at Oxford University ecstatic about a new vaccine that dealt with antibodies and T cells, was doing well in clinical trials, and could possibly be rolled out with 2 billion doses by October at the earliest.

Then today we have Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar telling the HOC Health Committee that Coronavirus will probably be with us for decades to come, and even a vaccine will probably fail to eliminate it.

Who the f*ck do we believe here?

There is nothing whatsoever contradictory about any of those statements.

So they don't really know, is that what you're saying? If that's a fact, why are they making any statements at all?

[BillyStubbsTears]

SS. I wasn't going to explain because so many people on here accuse me of being patronising, but here goes.

The research leaders trying to save us here are damn good professionals, doing their best to make sense of incomplete data. They are making statements becaude they believe that people have a right to hear the state of play, and they believe (possibly mistakenly) that people are intelligent enough to deal with uncertainty.

It is perfectly possible for:

a) antibodies to be time-limited
b) the production of antibodies to have a positive effect on lessening the impact of the illness and
c) the vaccine to mitigate the effect of the virus without eliminating it.


So, like I said, there's nothing contradictory between the three statements. You just have to think through the logic.

[drfchound]

Hermes created ten thousand jobs.

Actually, created 9,000 opportunities for people to work as contractors with no requirement for them to be given any work or paid minimum wage rates when they do work, and no sick pay or holiday pay.

At a time when we are looking at 4-5million on the dole this autumn, that's an example of the most rapacious form of exploitation of desperate people.

Actually Hermes have stated that they will employ 1500 new workers full time as well as requiring 9000 more couriers to cope with the significant rise in online shopping deliveries.
This fits with their current business model.
They currently employ just 4515 full time staff and use over 20000 couriers.
Online shopping clearly isn’t going away and they have ploughed over £30million into expanding their business this year.
I would suspect that those 9000 couriers will be getting plenty of work.

Also DPD are creating 6000 new full time positions to back up a £200 million investment in their business which backs up the Hermes approach.

Not quite as you described it BST.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound.

A long, long way from how you described it. Hermes haven't created anywhere close to 10,000 of what most of us would recognise as "jobs". The overwhelming majority are tenuous gig economy opportunities.

It's another step along the path of your and my generation Hound pulling up the rope ladder behind us and telling the younger generations to be grateful for "careers" that we wouldn't have given a second look. It's absolutely not something to celebrate.

[idler]

It's hardly helping the carbon footprint with all of these delivery vehicles zooming round.

[drfchound]

It's hardly helping the carbon footprint with all of these delivery vehicles zooming round.

Just balancing out the vehicles not going to the shops as often perhaps idler.

[drfchound]

Hound.

A long, long way from how you described it. Hermes haven't created anywhere close to 10,000 of what most of us would recognise as "jobs". The overwhelming majority are tenuous gig economy opportunities.

It's another step along the path of your and my generation Hound pulling up the rope ladder behind us and telling the younger generations to be grateful for "careers" that we wouldn't have given a second look. It's absolutely not something to celebrate.

.......and the DPD 6000 jobs?

However you choose to dismiss the Hermes situation BST, it does give those 9000 couriers an opportunity to have an income rather than drawing the dole money.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes the Hermes "jobs" (sic) are better than being on the dole. As are the DPD ones. Is that the height of our aspirations in the 21st century?