Brexit Party Leaflets

[scawsby steve]

The referendum was never legally binding and Brexit should never have happended on the back of such a small margin. MPs should have stood their ground and said "we respect the referendum result, obviously people aren't happy with the EU over certain issues so we will commit to enforcing change from within, oh and we're not going to f**king leave because we don't want to see the country f**ked"

How could they have said they respected the referendum result but as far as carrying it out you can f**k off, we ain't leaving?

Politicians do it all the time, saying that they respect what the people are telling them to do, and then go and do something else.
Like with the local elections, and all the pro-brexit parties losing out massively to the pro-remain candidates, and we get May and Corbyn both telling us they respect what the public has said and will press along with Brexit?!?!?

Pro-brexit parties losing out? Come on Bob, keep up with events; the Brexit Party never stood in the locals. Wait until next Thursday; they'll muller everybody else, and finally put to bed the myth that Brexit voters are changing their minds.

[Axholme Lion]

The referendum was never legally binding and Brexit should never have happended on the back of such a small margin. MPs should have stood their ground and said "we respect the referendum result, obviously people aren't happy with the EU over certain issues so we will commit to enforcing change from within, oh and we're not going to f**king leave because we don't want to see the country f**ked"

How could they have said they respected the referendum result but as far as carrying it out you can f**k off, we ain't leaving?

Politicians do it all the time, saying that they respect what the people are telling them to do, and then go and do something else.
Like with the local elections, and all the pro-brexit parties losing out massively to the pro-remain candidates, and we get May and Corbyn both telling us they respect what the public has said and will press along with Brexit?!?!?

Pro-brexit parties losing out? Come on Bob, keep up with events; the Brexit Party never stood in the locals. Wait until next Thursday; they'll muller everybody else, and finally put to bed the myth that Brexit voters are changing their minds.

I can't wait for Thursday.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Interesting this morning, Tories and labour showing way down but the Tories still top of the polls admittedly with a low vote share.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well who'd have thought it?

Labour's refusal to unambiguously support Remain policies is killing it in the polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-remain-voters-european-elections

I'm a Labour party member but I'm not voting for them next week. Labour's policy on the EU is an utter car crash and has done the unthinkable - rehabilitated the Lib Dems.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And here comes the real point of the whole Brexit process.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48299424

[wilts rover]

Labour has a 5% lead in the poll of polls - its highest since January 2014

Since the beginning of April there have been 7 polls giving Labour a 9 point lead.

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats
https://twitter.com/britainelects
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK

Who needs facts eh.

[wilts rover]

Well who'd have thought it?

Labour's refusal to unambiguously support Remain policies is killing it in the polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-remain-voters-european-elections

I'm a Labour party member but I'm not voting for them next week. Labour's policy on the EU is an utter car crash and has done the unthinkable - rehabilitated the Lib Dems.

Then you are helping Farage.

[DonnyOsmond]

Well who'd have thought it?

Labour's refusal to unambiguously support Remain policies is killing it in the polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-remain-voters-european-elections

I'm a Labour party member but I'm not voting for them next week. Labour's policy on the EU is an utter car crash and has done the unthinkable - rehabilitated the Lib Dems.

Then you are helping Farage.

Only voting for the Brexit party is helping Farage.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well no actually. Not in multi-representative seats with PR.

Personally, I'd save my opprobrium for those on the Left who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Labour in 2010 as a protest. They were the ones whose indulgence of their own ideological purity gave us the Tory-LD coalition and a decade of Austerity.

If a few hundred people in 10 or a dozen constituencies who switched to the Greens or LDs or abstained had held their noses and voted Labour, we'd have had a Lab-LD coalition and a totally different 2010s.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Labour has a 5% lead in the poll of polls - its highest since January 2014

Since the beginning of April there have been 7 polls giving Labour a 9 point lead.

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats
https://twitter.com/britainelects
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK

Who needs facts eh.

Wilts

Since the start of May, there have been 7 Westminster polls.

Labour has averaged 28%.

If you think that is something to crow about, you're away with the fairies.

Labour is ahead in the polls because the Tories are haemorrhaging support to Farage.

You think will be a permanent state of affairs?

Wait till May steps down in the summer, and she's replaced by someone who packages up the Tories as the Hard Brexit party and pulls that support back.

Labour is in a catastrophic position because it is losing so much support to the LDs and Greens and (to a lesser extent) to ChUK.

This is precisely what was predicted 6 months ago. And precisely what Kellner surgical analyses in the article I posted earlier.

Anyway. I thought you didn't trust polls...?

[Tarkovsky_Mikluzhkin]

I think this European Elections polling data is about as flawed as any I have ever seen. I have no way of analysing the data any better either myself BTW.
 I see no way of calculating the turnout for a start. I mean seriously are people gonna turn up to vote for someone to represent them if at best they will only do so until Halloween (apparently) but then again ALL political discussion for the last 4 years has been about the EU. Asking people on YouGov if they'll turn up seems a bit ridiculous and voting intention is massive both leavers and remainers have legit reasons to stay away.
Brexit Party top by a huge distance seems to make sense with the remain vote split amongst so many other parties. However, They have only just come into existence and despite the heavy coverage their numbers look falsly inflated. 1. Voters who say they'll vote Brexit in the EU elections could possible be confused by second ref talk or mean a Brexit party. 2. Voters who say they'll vote Brexit Party are more likely to not vote out of protest at still being in the EU when the day comes. 3. Their are at least 4 parties that disillusioned brexiteers might vote for UKIP, BREXIT, English Democrat, Change UK* (*I know they don't support Brexit you know they don't support Brexit but let's be honest if you've truly had it with politics then you've probably stopped paying attention, have no idea who they are but know Farage has a new party and jump to conclusions - They are top of the coupon here too)
And that's before we even begin to look at the remain side which is arguably even more complex and if we have Labour members saying they won't vote Labour how can anyone have any confidence forecasting anything?

[wilts rover]

Anyway. I thought you didn't trust polls...?

Well I am unsure about the conclusions of the ones conducted by a leading activist in the Peoples Vote campaign thats for sure.

The Tories are on 20%, BP are on 20% and UKIP on 4%. Yet you still believe Labour is only loosing to the Lib Dems 13% & Change UK 2%. None so blind as them that can't see.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I haven't got a clue what you are talking about on the PV issue.

On the other point, I didn't say Labour was ONLY losing support to Remain-committed parties. But it is undoubtedly losing far more Remain supporters than Leave supporters.

 In the first fortnight of the New Year, when Corbyn was still managing to keep up the line that Labour supported both Leave and Remain, the average poll figures were.

Lab 37
Con 39
LD 10
UKIP 5
Green 3.5

First two weeks of May, as Labour's line is collapsing, we have

Lab 28
Con 23
LD 13.5
BREXIT 19
UKIP 3
Green 5.5
ChUK 3.5

So the vote share of out and out Remain supporting parties has gone up by 9 points. And whaddya know? Labour's share has gone down by 9 points.

Similarly, the vote share of avowedly Hard BREXIT parties has gone up by 17 points. And the Tories' share has gone down by 16 points.

Occam's Razor feels rather sharp when confronted with figures like that.

The horrifying problem for Labour is that the Tories have an obvious way to win back support from the Brexit supporting parties. By putting a Johnson or Raab in as leader. What does Labour do to win back Remain supporters?

Still, I'm sure I'm wrong, and St Jeremy the Infallible has got it all under control...

[The Red Baron]

It strikes me that two and a half years too late the Tories have finally realised that being a pro-Brexit party and being led by a Remainer is a recipe for electoral suicide.

How long will it take Labour to realise that having a pro-Remain party led by a Leaver is just as bad? And when they do, will they be able to do anything about it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well the togger season might be over, but I see the lying shite season is still in full swing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TomEden11/status/1129503504769474562

Anti-establishment man of the people. How stupid do you have to be to entertain that thought for a second?

[BillyStubbsTears]

So, let's just stop and think.

Arron Banks paid Farage £450,000 for the rent on a luxury London house and a chauffeur driven car in England because "it happened in America"?

And he didn't have to declare it to the European Parliament because he "was leaving politics"? Future tense, obviously, because the lying, devious shite was still picketing €9000/month salary for his job (sic) as an MEP.

Tell me something. Is it REALLY so important to feel that you're on the winning side, that you will allow yourselves to be humiliated by supporting this crook?

[wilts rover]

Billy, you can go on as much as you want about Labour and remain but I am afraid it wont change the actual facts, Labour can't win an election based on remain votes. Remainers are predominately based in university cities, Brexiteers in the countryside and smaller towns. To win a GE, Labour has to win actual seats, not bigger majorities in Bristol & London.

Look at the maps
https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1129747289617174528/photo/1

[wilts rover]

I do love the fact that several people on here who have slagged Corbyn for the past few years and said they would never vote Labour because he is a Marxist and supports terrorism - are now going to vote for a PROPER revolutionary Marxist who really does support the IRA and Jhadi terrorism. And making child pornography legal.

Well done chaps, you are properly socking it to the liberal elite there

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claire_Fox

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

That's as maybe, but there's one thing equally certain. When the Tories install a Hard Brexit PM, there is zero chance if Labour winning a GE if it has alienated Left Remainers. Who make up about 75% of the electorate that means towards Labour.

It's a quandary isn't it? Precisely the one that Corbyn brilliantly avoided in 2017 by convincing both sides that he was one of them. But as I've been saying for 2 years, that sleight of hand would not and could not survive the moment of truth when Corbyn was going to have to come down on one side or the other of the Brexit decision.

What he's actually done of course is to try to insist that he's still on both sides. It's just that a very large number of Left Remainers, possibly as many as 2.5-3million, no longer believe him and have moved away from Labour.

It's the logical conclusion that's been coming for a while. Corbynistas have been lauding their man as the builder of a great Left bloc. In reality, it was always hopelessly fragile. He's never appealed to the centre-left. They supported Labour because there was no logical alternative. But the resurrection of the LDs and the Greens has blown that situation apart.

[SydneyRover]

With upstanding citizen boris as pm what could go wrong, racist, dishonest, stupid, and worse he thinks people can't see this or don't care.

https://www.snp.org/boris-johnson-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-tory-pm-contender/

[SydneyRover]

My view is that JC needs to get behind or better still lead the remain camp or go now most of the lies (not all) are out and a big slice of the truth that surrounded the 2016 vote is there to see. Knowing the economic consequences of leaving in my book makes it impossible for anyone who considers themselves to be in the labour camp to actually vote for them. Changing leaders for the conservatives solves nothing.

[wilts rover]

I find your thinking here very strange Billy. You say that the country wont vote for Corbyn as PM because he wont back remain (despite backing a 2nd referendum 4 times even putting it forward twice) yet they will vote for Johnson as PM because he voted leave.

I await to see the polling for that but my view is that he and Farage will split the right-wing vote whilst the old one-nation Tories will never vote for Johnson. Several MP's have said publicly they will leave the party and their supporters will either not vote or vote LD.

Syndey here has said that Corbyn should go because he wont challenge the lies of the referendum. Yet Billy believes the biggest liar will be voted PM. Something's not right there.

I would also caution you to be careful what you wish for. If Corbyn has alienated the left remainers then 75% of voters support a Brexit party (Opinium poll in todays observer). The LD resurgence has them on 11% not yet half of what they polled in 2010. And that is going to be heavily weight towards the south-west, where Labour never does well, according to the local elections. There's only one party surging in the polls and its certainly not a left wing one.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts, for a very clever person, you don't half make some ridiculously unsupportable conclusions. Takes me back to discussiins with SWP members 30-odd years ago. They were prone to similar behaviour. I think it started from assuming that your interlocutor was acting in bad faith, therefore (s)he must be shown to be wrong.

Difficult to know where to start to be honest, so bear with me.

1) I did not say that Corbyn wouldn't be elected PM because he won't support Remain. I said that he will haemorrhage support because of the public perception of him favouring Leave. I've said all along that the 2017 Labour performance came from a brilliant trick, where he convinced Leave and Remain supporters that he was on their side. And I've said for 2 years that couldn't not last. And it hasn't.

2) It's very, very silly of you to imply from that that ALL Remain supporters have left Labour. So silly, the conclusion you draw from that premise is really not worth answering.

3) I KNOW how many times Corbyn has said that Ref2 is an option. It's just that I (and according to the polls, about 2.5-3m other people who are instinctively Labour supporters) listen to and read every other comment he makes about Brexit, and decide that I believe his strong preference is not to have Ref2.

3) You mentioning the Lads in isolation is very silly. And choosing their lowest poll figure for a month is naughty. Over the past 10 polls, the LDs have averaged 14.5%, Greens 5% and ChUK 3%.

That's 20% of the electorate floundering around and choosing avowedly Remain supporting parties who have very little chance of winning many seats. Fertile ground for a more avowedly Remain supporting Labour.

4) Your entire thesis appears to be based around the idea that Labour's existential threat is losing the support of working class Leave voters. I'd advise you to have a look at that article by Peter Kellner that I posted last week and that you rejected out of hand because...well, because.

It sets out the numbers. Working class, Labour supporting Leave-supporters are actually one of the smallest groups in the electorate. I'd also add the factual (though, I'd expect controversial on here) note that they are predominantly older. It'd be a very foolish Labour party that hitched it's wagon to that horse and allowed an impression to be cemented in the heads of the next generation of voters that Labour was a Brexit-facillitating party.

That's enough for now. Stuff to do.

[BillyStubbsTears]

EU Election polls

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-48227459

Before the Brexit party launch, the combined poll share of the right wing parties was about 44% (Tories 26, UKIP 18).

In the latest averages it's about 46% (Brexit 31, Tories 12, UKIP3).

Before the launch of the Brexit party, the combined centre and left poll share was about 52%  (Lab 30, LD 10, Green 7, SNP 4, PC 1)

In the latest averages it is about 52%
Lab 21, LD 14, Green 8, ChUK 5, SNP 3, PC 1).

Screams out the bleeding obvious to me. The Brexit party hasn't hit Labour. It's hit the Tories and UKIP. Meanwhile, the avowedly Remain parties are tearing chunks out of Labour.

[DonnyOsmond]

Labour have let themselves down, they could have cleaned up majority of the remain votes if they listened to their members.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's the problem though. And this is where I have sympathy with Wilts' opinion.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/vote2?region=Yorkshire%20and%20The%20Humber

Brexit party on 1/3rd of the vote in Yorkshire, but would get 1/2 the seats because of the split on the centre left.

If one of Lab, LD and Green were above 22% and the other 2 were above 11%, that would knock a seat off the Brexit party total.

As it is, the 4-5% supporting ChUK is a disaster - they are putting fascists into the EU parliament.

Personally, I'm totally at a loss on what to do. I want to shout a message out to Corbyn, but that risks another fascist getting elected.

I could weep. The Left is doing its usual historical thing of arguing between itself while the Far Right march on. There's no majority in the country for Fascism, but Farage will be on a roll because the people against him couldn't find common ground. Every one on the centre-Left will be to blame if he develops momentum from this.

[hoolahoop]

No. We're not in circular arguments.

BB questions whether things will improve after we leave.

I suggest he looks at what professional economist who have been right consistently predict what will happen.

BB says it doesn't matter.

That's not circular. That's changing tracks when the argument you start off with runs into the buffers.

But, if we're changing tracks on the discussion then fine. Regarding respect for democracy, I have it in bucket loads. Which is why I'm so annoyed about the Leave campaigns not having it in 2016, when they broke the law on a huge scale. I am continually amazed that no Leave supporter seems in the least bit concerned about that.

I'm also amazed that they don't seem to be upset about being treated as thick by the prominent Leave supporters who told us one thing before the vote, then switched their arguments 180 degrees once they'd suckered people into voting the way they wanted.

Strange thing, this respect for democracy. Almost as if the only thing that matters is winning because it means the other side lost.

That's because a certain somebody wasn't apparently a " Leave " voter . Remember this post ....

" But you are accusing him of changing his mind because he said he wanted a brilliant Brexit, after previously declaring he wanted to remain. I'm sure there are millions of others who now want a brilliant Brexit after voting to remain. I'm one of them.

" Have we all changed our mind? "

Let's play guess the poster ....
 

[wilts rover]

For those that missed Marr this morning (which appears to be quite a lot of people giving the lack of coverage in the media & twitterati) Corbyn promised 4 times that any deal that parliament came up with had to be put back to the people in a confirmatory referendum. I dont know how much more explicit or high profile he could be with this change in policy, it's almost as it they dont want to report it.

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1130052946341838848

[Bentley Bullet]

Did Marr bring up the past and question Corbyn's 'former' views on our EU membership?

[Herbert Anchovy]

For those that missed Marr this morning (which appears to be quite a lot of people giving the lack of coverage in the media & twitterati) Corbyn promised 4 times that any deal that parliament came up with had to be put back to the people in a confirmatory referendum. I dont know how much more explicit or high profile he could be with this change in policy, it's almost as it they dont want to report it.

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1130052946341838848

Because some people like nothing better than an excuse to criticise Corbyn! Usually the centre left in his own party ironically. Corbyn was a critic of the EU many years ago but the internal pressures from the centre left have clearly dictated this shift in Labour policy. Where this leaves Labour now is anyone’s guess. There’s irony in this at every turn