Mick on trial

[Bristol Red Rover]

Open to anyone, with Mick giving his reasons in advance of the games.

You have a virtual £100 to place on at least 3 games, max of £40 on any one. Just list your bets (Team & odds). Must be done by 7pm on Tues.

Odds are from Ladbrokes on Mon morning, decimal odds for ease of working out.

Brentford 1.8 Draw 3.25 Shrewsbury 3.75

Bury 2.5 Draw 3.25 Carlisle 2.37

Coventry 2.7 Draw 3.2  MK Dons 2.25

Crawley 1.83 Draw 3.3 Bournemouth 3.6

Crewe 1.9 Draw 3.2 Oldham 3.5

Doncaster 2.1 Draw 3.2 Preston 3.0

Hartlepool 2.8 Draw 3.4 Sheff Utd 2.0

Notts County 1.83 Draw 3.3 Stevenage 3.6

Scunthorpe 2.62 Draw 3.5 Tranmere 2.3

Swindon 1.53 Draw 3.6 Colchester 5.0

Walsall 1.9 Draw 3.2 Leyton Orient 3.5

Yeovil 1.83 Draw 3.4 Portsmouth 3.5

[Akinfenwa]

I highly doubt that Michael would approve of gambling on the Sabbath day. All other days are fine however, even on a 'professional' level so you might want to get back to him at another time.

[mjdgreg]

Even though you have not used my username mjdgreg in the thread title, I will assume you are talking to me as the 'm' of mjdgreg does indeed stand for Michael.

Right, let's do this thing. I like to take lots of money off Ladbrokes and their odds are usually pretty decent so let's use them. Bring it on. As it is the Sabbath I would ask people not to place their virtual bets until midnight at the earliest. Praise be to the Lord.

[rover-n-out]

Numbers, numbers, numbers, now, where the hell did I put that old Enigma thingummybob I found on Skeggy Beach. 

[RobTheRover]

Even though you have not used my username mjdgreg in the thread title, I will assume you are talking to me as the 'm' of mjdgreg does indeed stand for Michael.

Right, let's do this thing. I like to take lots of money off Ladbrokes and their odds are usually pretty decent so let's use them. Bring it on. As it is the Sabbath I would ask people not to place their virtual bets until midnight at the earliest. Praise be to the Lord.

LOL.  Quality closing line, Michael.

[RobTheRover]

Right, I'll go for........

Brentford 1.8 Draw 3.25 Shrewsbury 3.75

Bury 2.5 Draw 3.25 Carlisle 2.37 - Carlisle Win £40

Coventry 2.7 Draw 3.2  MK Dons 2.25 - Draw £30

Crawley 1.83 Draw 3.3 Bournemouth 3.6

Crewe 1.9 Draw 3.2 Oldham 3.5

Doncaster 2.1 Draw 3.2 Preston 3.0

Hartlepool 2.8 Draw 3.4 Sheff Utd 2.0

Notts County 1.83 Draw 3.3 Stevenage 3.6

Scunthorpe 2.62 Draw 3.5 Tranmere 2.3

Swindon 1.53 Draw 3.6 Colchester 5.0

Walsall 1.9 Draw 3.2 Leyton Orient 3.5

Yeovil 1.83 Draw 3.4 Portsmouth 3.5 - Draw £30

[mjdgreg]

Brentford 1.8 Draw 3.25 Shrewsbury 3.75

Bury 2.5 Draw 3.25 Carlisle 2.37

Coventry 2.7 Draw 3.2  MK Dons 2.25

Crawley 1.83 Draw 3.3 Bournemouth 3.6

Crewe 1.9 Draw 3.2 Oldham 3.5

Doncaster 2.1 Draw 3.2 Preston 3.0 Draw £20

Hartlepool 2.8 Draw 3.4 Sheff Utd 2.0 Sheff Utd win £40

Notts County 1.83 Draw 3.3 Stevenage 3.6

Scunthorpe 2.62 Draw 3.5 Tranmere 2.3 Tranmere win £40

Swindon 1.53 Draw 3.6 Colchester 5.0

Walsall 1.9 Draw 3.2 Leyton Orient 3.5

Yeovil 1.83 Draw 3.4 Portsmouth 3.5

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fascinating predictions Mick.

Being such a thinker, you will of course know that Tranmere have by far and away the worst possession efficiency in the division. Just under 8%, whilst Scunthorpe's is 3.3%.

Interesting that you reckon Tranmere are worth 40 quid.

[mjdgreg]

Fascinating predictions mjdgreg.

Being such a thinker, you will of course know that Tranmere have by far and away the worst possession efficiency in the division. Just under 8%. So why do you think they are going to win?

I don't know where you get your stats from but they are not correct. Tranmere have a possession efficiency of less than 6%. It's obvious to any professional gambler why they'll win (and win easily). One stat stands out. Goal difference. Tranmere +17 and Scunny - 9. That bet will be like printing money. There is no need to take any other factors into account.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tranmere's average possession this season is 58% and their average number of shots per game is 7.8. So their possession efficiency is 7.5.

Scunthorpe's average possession in 42% and they average 12.7 shots per game. So their possession efficiency is 3.3.

All figures from the BBC/PA stats.

Even by your figures (source Mick?) Tranmere's possession efficiency is worse than woeful.

Is this another exception that proves the rule (sic)? Or are we finally converging on indisputable evidence that you talk bullshit?

[donnievic]

Open to anyone, with Mick giving his reasons in advance of the games.

You have £100 to place on at least 3 games, max of £40 on any one. Just list your bets (Team & odds). Must be done by 7pm on Tues.

Odds are from Ladbrokes on Mon morning, decimal odds for ease of working out.

Brentford 1.8 Draw 3.25 Shrewsbury 3.75

Bury 2.5 Draw 3.25 Carlisle 2.37

Coventry 2.7 Draw 3.2  MK Dons 2.25

Crawley 1.83 Draw 3.3 Bournemouth 3.6

Crewe 1.9 Draw 3.2 Oldham 3.5 home

Doncaster 2.1 Draw 3.2 Preston 3.0

Hartlepool 2.8 Draw 3.4 Sheff Utd 2.0 away

Notts County 1.83 Draw 3.3 Stevenage 3.6

Scunthorpe 2.62 Draw 3.5 Tranmere 2.3 away

Swindon 1.53 Draw 3.6 Colchester 5.0 home

Walsall 1.9 Draw 3.2 Leyton Orient 3.5 home

Yeovil 1.83 Draw 3.4 Portsmouth 3.5

£20 4 folds,show me the money

[mjdgreg]

Tranmere's average possession this season is 58% and their average number of shots per game is 7.8. So their possession efficiency is 7.5.

Scunthorpe's average possession in 42% and they average 12.7 shots per game. So their possession efficiency is 3.3.

All figures from the BBC/PA stats.

Even by your figures (source Mick?) Tranmere's possession efficiency is worse than woeful.

Is this another exception that proves the rule (sic)? Or are we finally converging on indisputable evidence that you talk bullshit?

Your stats are wrong. I can't get the stats on the L Orient game but they won that 3-1 so if anything it would go in my favour. In the other 8 games they had a total of 399% possession and 69 attempts on goal. Therefore 399 divided by 69 = 5.78% possession efficiency with an average of 8.63 attempts on goal. Even this figure is not great, so yes, they are the exception that proves the rule.

[IDM]

"In the other 8 games they had a total of 399% possession"

You can't have more than 100% possession.  399 minutes in total over several games perhaps.  Pedantic? yes, of course, but if you are trying to convince us with stats, use them properly please.

[The Red Baron]

Bury 2.5 Draw 3.25 Carlisle 2.37- HOME WIN £20

Crawley 1.83 Draw 3.3 Bournemouth 3.6- HOME WIN £20

Hartlepool 2.8 Draw 3.4 Sheff Utd 2.0- DRAW £20

Swindon 1.53 Draw 3.6 Colchester 5.0- HOME WIN £20

Walsall 1.9 Draw 3.2 Leyton Orient 3.5- DRAW £20

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick.

I don't know what gambling you do, but I hope for your sake that it's not poker, because you are shit at bluffing. And at counting come to that.

The Orient figures are easily findable. You didn't include them because the PA possession figures were 75:25 to Tranmere. That brings Tranmere's season average possession figure to 53% (my mistake earlier - 58% was a calculator slip).

Tranmere had 6 shots in that game. That game aside, they had a total of 65 shots (not the 69 that you state - bit of a bad do if you can't even get something as simple as that right Mick, eh?) So they have now had 71 shots - 7.9 shots per game.

Now, we all know that your blather about possession efficiency is pointless, but we'll humour you. Tranmere's season-average possession efficiency is 6.7.

At the weekend, you told us that the Rovers' figure of 5.58 was piss poor. Your exact words were "this tells us that we are currently heading for relegation unless we get it below 5%".

But Tranmere, with a possession efficiency score of 6.7 are riding high on top of the league and unbeaten. You tell us that this one is the exception that proves the rule (sic).  And, after telling us that possession efficiency is such a crucial metric, you then tell us that betting on Tranmere (possession efficiency 6.7) away at Scunthorpe (possession efficiency 3.3) is like printing money. And you tell us that we should look at goal difference instead.

Help us out Mick, cos we're struggling here. When should we rely on possession efficiency, and when should we ignore it? When should we look at goal difference?

[silent majority]

If you want to know where he gets his bullshit from you could do worse than looking here;

http://www.ehow.com/how_7775395_calculate-teams-offensive-defensive-efficiencies.html

[mjdgreg]

BST, Tranmere had 6 shots in that game. That game aside, they had a total of 69 shots (not the 65 that you state - bit of a bad do if you can't even get something as simple as that right , eh?) So they have now had 71 shots - 7.9 shots per game.

My figure of 69 is correct I'm afraid.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Bury 2.5 Draw 3.25 Carlisle 2.37 £20 Bury

Coventry 2.7 Draw 3.2  MK Dons 2.25 £40 MK

Hartlepool 2.8 Draw 3.4 Sheff Utd 2.0 £20 Sheff

Yeovil 1.83 Draw 3.4 Portsmouth 3.5 £20 Yeovil

[Dagenham Rover]

BST, Tranmere had 6 shots in that game. That game aside, they had a total of 69 shots (not the 65 that you state - bit of a bad do if you can't even get something as simple as that right , eh?) So they have now had 71 shots - 7.9 shots per game.

My figure of 69 is correct I'm afraid.

If you are going to quote I suggest you don't change words or numbers around

Quotation is the repetition of someone else's statement or thoughts

Plagiarism is defined in dictionaries as the "wrongful appropriation," "close imitation,"

I'll tell you what I'll point it out for you

heres the original

Tranmere had 6 shots in that game. That game aside, they had a total of 65 shots (not the 69 that you state - bit of a bad do if you can't even get something as simple as that right Mick, eh?) So they have now had 71 shots - 7.9 shots per game.

[MachoMadness]

Brentford 1.8 Draw 3.25 Shrewsbury 3.75

Bury 2.5 Draw 3.25 Carlisle 2.37

Coventry 2.7 Draw 3.2  MK Dons 2.25

Crawley 1.83 Draw 3.3 Bournemouth 3.6 - Crawley £20

Crewe 1.9 Draw 3.2 Oldham 3.5 - Crewe £40

Doncaster 2.1 Draw 3.2 Preston 3.0

Hartlepool 2.8 Draw 3.4 Sheff Utd 2.0

Notts County 1.83 Draw 3.3 Stevenage 3.6 - Draw £20

Scunthorpe 2.62 Draw 3.5 Tranmere 2.3 - Tranmere £20

Swindon 1.53 Draw 3.6 Colchester 5.0

Walsall 1.9 Draw 3.2 Leyton Orient 3.5

Yeovil 1.83 Draw 3.4 Portsmouth 3.5

Note I made these choices entirely without counting stats, just went on gut feeling. So we'll see how unpredictable or predictable this game can be.

Just a thought, Mick - would they call it 'the beautiful game' if you could predict everything by using a notepad, a stopwatch and a prodigious amount of Google searches? I doubt it.

[mjdgreg]

"In the other 8 games they had a total of 399% possession"

You can't have more than 100% possession.  399 minutes in total over several games perhaps.  Pedantic? yes, of course, but if you are trying to convince us with stats, use them properly please.

All I've done is add up all the amounts of percentage possession in each game and it comes to 399. Therefore 399 divided by the number of attempts gives you the possession efficiency.

[mjdgreg]

Just a thought, mjdgreg - would they call it 'the beautiful game' if you could predict everything by using a notepad, a stopwatch and a prodigious amount of Google searches? I doubt it.

I think you'll find we're not watching the beautiful game when we're watching Rovers at the moment. Now if you'd said Notts forest I could have taken you more seriously.

If all you do is rely on gut instinct then my advice is not to become a professional gambler. Bookies love mug punters like you.

[MachoMadness]

Doesn't sound at all like the Forest fans would agree with you at the moment, Mick.

We'll see come 10 o clock tomorrow, won't we?

[mjdgreg]

Just thought I'd put it out there. I think Bristol Red Rover has come up with a good idea with this predicting results thingy. It may be a good idea to do it on future games, and come up with a league table of how people are performing.

The winner at the end of the season could be given a prize by the VSC. Probably best to just do it on Saturday games and maybe the 'rules' may need looking at (or not as the case may be). I obviously would expect to win so would be quite happy for whoever came second to be declared the 'winner'. Well done Bristol Red Rover.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Come on Mick. You can do better than that. So can i come to that because I miscounted earlier. They have even fewer shots than I'd given them credit for.

Tranmere's shot count per league game this season:
Orient - 6
Carlisle - 10
Shrewsbury - 8
Colchester - 9
Crewe - 10
Coventry - 5
Bury - 6
Crawley - 13
Brentford - 3

Total 70
Total without Orient game - 64.

Source:
Press Association

[Snods Shinpad 2]

Swindon 1.53 £40

Brentford 1.8 £40

Crawley 1.83 £20

[Red wizard]

Mick owned by Billy stubbs.

[mjdgreg]

mjdgreg owned by Billy stubbs.

lol. As if.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'd take him back and swap him for one that worked if I owned him.

[karldew]

Coventry 2.7 Draw 3.2  MK Dons 2.25 - £40 Away
Doncaster 2.1 Draw 3.2 Preston 3.0 - £40 Home
Scunthorpe 2.62 Draw 3.5 Tranmere 2.3 - £20 Away