Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: donnygeoff on March 13, 2017, 12:22:03 pm
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Just been checking and the top four maximum points possible are:
Rovers 102, Plymouth 98, Portsmouth 92 and Luton 90,
Assuming the three teams apart from Rovers win all their games we need 91 points to be assured of third place.
Teams will drop points if for no other reason than that there are a lot of matches between top 8 teams.
Cannot see fourth place getting more than 85 points. Many may say even less.
Hence we need a minimum of 14 points from the next 10 games. 5 wins out of 10 will do nicely thank you
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at risk of repeating myself, we ae 14 pts plus golas above 4th place. They, stevenage has just taken 25 out of 30 points, they odds of them repeating that are zero, everyone else in the top 6 are dropping points all over the place.., so...
if we consevatley give the 4th place team 20 pts out of 30, that means we need 2 more wins plus our goal difference to get auto. 3 more wins should completely seal it! Unless of course that Stevenage can end the season with 16 wins out of the last 18 games of the season??? If they do that they deserve the title!
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Also assuming we beat Plymouth then 8 wins from our final 10 games will guarantee finishing top.
As long as other teams drop points, so we can afford to as well. No other team outside those 4 can possibly get 90 points or more.
I agree that 85 will be enough for promotion, and 90-92 for winning the league.
Perhaps this thread can become a sticky, with the maximum points available per team being changed after each round of fixtures?
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Perhaps this thread can become a sticky, with the maximum points available per team being changed after each round of fixtures?
Done :aok:
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A bit of statistical analysis (in the sad absence of BST):
There have been a total of 21 seasons at Tier 4 since 1995-96 when there have been 46 games, 3 Automatic promotion places, and 4 play-off positions.
For those 21 seasons I have calculated the Mean, Median, Maximum and Minimum number of points for each of the top 4 positions. The Median is the number for which there are equal instances of a total higher or lower, so in this case 10 seasons with a lower and 10 seasons with a higher number of points. This is often a better measure than the mean (i.e. average) which can be skewed by one or two excessively high seasons.
Position Mean Median Minimum Maximum
1 89.9 87 83 102
2 84.7 83 79 97
3 81.5 81 75 88
4 78.3 78 72 85
Looking at that you would normally say 87 points for first place 81 for third. My own personal opinion is that those numbers might not be too far from this season's requirement. I do think second place will have more than 83, and third maybe more than 81, but fourth at 78 might be close.
From a purely mathematical point of view, Luton can gain the fourth highest theoretical maximum points with 90, so worst case is that we currently need another 19 for automatic promotion - that 19 being a combination of points won by us and lost by Luton (and potentially others).
The Countdown is on!
:scarf: :scarf: :scarf: :scarf:
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Fourth at 78 would also support CiM's collation.
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After tonight's results, the countdown is now down to 14 points required fro automatic. That is a combiation of points won by us and points dropped by Luton (or others)
:scarf: :scarf: :scarf:
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It's looking good, we just need to hold our nerve better than the rest.
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Maximum points each team can now get individually:
Doncaster 102
Plymouth 96
Portsmouth 92
Carlisle 86
Luton 88
Stevenage 85
Exeter 84
This confirms 14 more points for us to reach 89 will guarantee automatic promotion. 1.55 points per game when we currently have 2.03 ppg.
I am optimistic!!
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Odds well in our favour.
Potentially we could get promoted as early as next Sunday against Plymouth (unlikely).
That would need 2 Rovers wins, 3 Luton defeats (their game in hand next week) and 2 defeats for the other play off teams - very unlikely.
A win on Saturday should almost seal a play off place and mean a lot of teams would have to win every game - in fact given teams will play each other, it may confirm it (may try to model that if I have a bit of downtime).
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2 more wins will see us promoted in my view. 4th place will not get to 82.
Win at Orient then beat Plymouth on the following Sunday live on TV and the first of the Champers can be popped. then we can knuckle down on the next prize of securing the title with the pressure off.
As coaches say, relax and play.
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For what its worth, and I loathe predicting too much, I think promotion vs Mansfield, Champs vs Exeter.
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I've been saying anything above 78 points will be enough since January and the form of the teams below us has done nothing to change my mind.
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You may be right, but we won't know that until way after we hit 78 points..
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I think Champions is ALREADY in the bag . Now to recruit for Division 1 ;)
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Countdown to promotion now mathematically down to 9 points, a combination of points we win and Luton (or others) lose
:scarf: :scarf: :scarf:
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Maximum points each team can now get..
Doncaster 102
Plymouth 96
Portsmouth 89
Stevenage 85
Luton 86
Carlisle 83
Exeter 82
So the MAXimum points required is now 87, two less than after the last round of fixtures..
3 wins from 8 confirms promotion, 6 the title if that includes Plymouth..
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Doncaster 102
Plymouth 96
Portsmouth 89
Stevenage 85
Luton 86
Carlisle 83
Exeter 82
So the minimum points required is now 87, two less than after the last round of fixtures..
3 wins from 8 confirms promotion, 6 the title..
At this moment will only get better
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So one more game scrubbed off, and the points that 4th can get using their season average is 73.8, as we are on 78 they need to maintain that average then get 2 more wins all in the last 8 games.. plus a small matter of us having to lose every game as well...
Next Sunday potentially could take us 20 pts clear of 4th with 7 games to go, and I'm sure I'll still be reading, we need 3 more wins to be sure.. relax boys and girls, we are already promoted :-)
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Doncaster 102
Plymouth 96
Portsmouth 89
Stevenage 85
Luton 86
Carlisle 83
Exeter 82
So the minimum points required is now 87, two less than after the last round of fixtures..
3 wins from 8 confirms promotion, 6 the title..
How can the minimum required be 87?, 4th could quite easily finish up on 75pts, using their current season averages. So the minimum would be 76 needed. If everyone stops assuming every team wins every game till the end of the season, it becomes so much less stressful ...wondering if we can cross that line..
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It would be a rolling goatf**k of gigantic proportion if we blew promotion now.. The 9 points required assumes the team who can get the most for 4th place (Luton) wins their last 9 games...
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sorry, my bad, the MAXIMUM required would be 87 points.. I'll amend my post.. We could have already got the minimum!
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I was right, I think.. As the table stands now, the minimum points to guarantee promotion is 87.. We may well get more, but 87 is the lowest that will guarantee promotion.
As soon as a rival team drops points, this minimum level will go down, as it has from 91 to 89 to 87 after each of the last set of games..
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sorry, my bad, the MAXIMUM required would be 87 points.. I'll amend my post.. We could have already got the minimum!
Well said that man, we.need to put this will we won't we promotion talk to one side, and just concentrate on the job in hand, which is bringing that title home!!
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82
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77 was enough in one season but normally it's 85-86. Two wins for sure will do it I think. But I don't see any reasons to worry for promotion. For the title, well next week will tell us that answer. Win and we can relax.
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This is one of those seasons where a low score is needed.. 100% certain...
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After tonight's fixtures...
Maximum points each team can now get..
Doncaster 102
Plymouth 96
Portsmouth 89
Stevenage 85
Luton 84
Carlisle 83
Exeter 82
As it stands, 86 points guarantees promotion, so we have "gained" a point towards our target without kicking a ball...
8 to go.. After Saturday before our game on Sunday, that requirement may be even less..
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Over the 8 remaining games that requirement is certain to become even less. Even if we lost every one of our remaining games Stevenage would have to average better than 2 points per game in their last 8, only one team in the whole table have done that. We almost certainly have enough already, one more win and we're home and hosed.
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Until it's mathematically possible for us not to finish 4th we need to keep going, then we keep going until it's not possible for us to finish 2nd, then we can relax which maybe in about 4 games but until it's certain let's just keep going.
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Agreed, as it did last night. The guaranteed promotion target assumes the teams that can finish 4th win all their games. They probably won't, but if one of them does they will probably deserve a promotion spot..
After this weekend it is conceivable we would then only need one more win.
Let's wait and see..
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Is it possible to get odds on a points tally needed for promotion?
If so, my flag is nailed firmly to the mast that says 78pts!!!
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If Rovers win tomorrow, they're guaranteed a play-off place!
Team P Pts MAX PTS
1 Doncaster 38 78 102
2 Plymouth 38 72 96
3 Portsmouth 39 68 89
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Stevenage 39 62 83
5 Blackpool 39 60 81
6 Luton Town 39 60 81
7 Exeter City 39 59 80
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Carlisle 39 59 80
9 Mansfield 39 58 79
10 Colchester 39 57 78
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True, also, win tomorrow means that winning at Grimsby will give us 84 points and guaranteed promotion.
Again that target has come down, so realistically the minimum points required for promotion is likely to reduce even further with other teams dropping points.
However, with our game tomorrow and then the Grimsby match starting early, we could hit 84 points and be guaranteed promotion before any of the other contenders (except Plymouth of course) get to kick a ball in anger...
6 points from 8 games,.. we don't even need to win tomorrow...
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If we do win tomorrow there is virtually no chance of Plymouth catching us.
Without a doubt, we are already promoted ( I know the maths don't agree) but no way will anyone from fourth down catch us now.
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I adapted this from the Plymouth forum, pretty neat visual way of seeing how things stand and can be.
Coloured is current points, black is max points, and the splodgy one on our row is the mathematical promotion point.
################################################## Donny +31
############################################ Argyle +18
##################################### Portsmouth +26
############################### Stevenage +12
############################# Blackpool +21
############################# Luton +19
############################ Exeter +16
############################ Carlisle -2
########################### Mansfield +5
########################### Colchester +4
######################## Wycombe 0
########################## Cambridge +6
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Good analysis, BRR.
These are the number of points it's taken to win the league, get automatic promotion and get in the play-offs in every League 2/Nationwide 3 season going back to when we last won it in 2003/04:
Season Top 3rd 7th
2015/16 99 85 75
2014/15 94 85 71
2013/14 84 81 71
2012/13 83 78 69
2011/12 93 84 72
2010/11 86 80 68
2009/10 93 82 72
2008/09 85 78 69
2007/08 97 88 78
2006/07 89 85 71
2005/06 86 81 66
2004/05 83 80 72
2003/04 92 81 74
Average 89.5 82.2 71.4
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Update after Plymouth
############################################### Donny +30
############################################ Argyle +19
##################################### Portsmouth +26
############################### Stevenage +12
############################# Blackpool +21
############################# Luton +19
############################ Exeter +16
############################ Carlisle -2
########################### Mansfield +5
########################### Colchester +4
######################## Wycombe 0
########################## Cambridge +6
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Good analysis, BRR.
These are the number of points it's taken to win the league, get automatic promotion and get in the play-offs in every League 2/Nationwide 3 season going back to when we last won it in 2003/04:....
As an addition to that, here's what it would have taken to be a point above 2nd, 4th and 8th.
Season Top 3rd 7th
2015/16 87 86 70
2014/15 90 85 69
2013/14 82 77 63
2012/13 80 77 68
2011/12 89 84 71
2010/11 82 80 69
2009/10 84 74 71
2008/09 80 79 69
2007/08 93 83 70
2006/07 89 85 72
2005/06 84 79 64
2004/05 81 79 73
2003/04 89 82 75
Average 85.4 80.8 69.5
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Nice work again, BRR. At 7 games out there are still loads of variables I guess but this stuff will get increasingly relevant as the final run in keeps tightening up in terms of games played. End of the day, draw every game from hereon in (or equivalent points) and we're home and dry for promotion.
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To be honest, it will take a cataclysmic F*** Up to not get promoted from this baseline, but we would have said the same last season at Christmas about getting relegated. Football can be a funny old game, as the prophet Cloughie may have once said.
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To be honest, it will take a cataclysmic F*** Up to not get promoted from this baseline, but we would have said the same last season at Christmas about getting relegated. Football can be a funny old game, as the prophet Cloughie may have once said.
Last season was a collapse but this would be a million times worse if we didn't get promoted this season.
We've probably already got enough points.
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If we do our bit Saturday we can still go up with a Stevenage defeat and Luton draw, I think.
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Not a snowball in hell chance of us not getting promoted now.
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If we do our bit Saturday we can still go up with a Stevenage defeat and Luton draw, I think.
IF we win and Stevenage lose we will be promoted.
A Stevenage draw would leave them having to make up an enormous goal difference to get past us if we lost our last six and they won their last six.
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6 points it still is.
If we perform like we did on Sunday but without a repeat goalkeeping display, we will get them easily.
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I would gladly lose the champions bet I have as long as we go up, surely we can't fail now
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Raven, don't worry.
We are as good as promoted.
No way will anyone push us out of the top three.
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Long odds but victory at Grimsby & no wins for those in the play off spots & just outside will see us promoted come Saturday teatime.
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Only if Stevenage lose.
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relax, we have 7 games left.. And it IS different to last season, and to 2013/14!!
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Using the last 10 matches played and the last 5
w l d pts w l d pts
Rovers 4 2 4 16 3 1 1 10
Ply 4 3 3 15 3 1 1 10
Ports 6 2 2 20 4 1 0 12
Stev 7 1 2 23 3 1 1 10
Black 5 1 4 19 4 0 1 13
Luton 3 2 5 14 0 2 3 3
Exe 2 3 5 11 1 2 2 5
POINTS PER GAME
PPG (10) PPG (5)
Rovers 1.6 2
Ply 1.5 2
Port 2 2.4
Steve 2.3 2
Black 1.9 2.6
Luton 1.4 0.6
Exe 1.1 1
So using these averages end of season points in next 7 games
Last 10 Last 5
Current pts Final Current pts Final
Rov 78 11.2 89 78 14 92
Ply 75 10.5 85 78 14 89
Port 68 14 82 68 16.8 85
Steve 62 16.1 78 62 14 76
Black 60 13.3 73 60 18.2 78
Luton 60 9.8 70 60 4.2 64
Exe 59 7.7 67 59 7 66
Like all stats means absolutely nothing but I enjoyed doing it but wheres BST when we need him?
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Win tomorrow and that could do it. We won't know until later in the day of course.
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As it stands, 3 more points is enough.. maybe less by 4.55 today!
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Sounds good!
The lads must be over the moon after that display.
It's a shame one of those goals didn't come last week but it keeps Plymouth and Pompey dreading a slip.
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It's beer time, 78pts was enough fellas, 81 is just icing on the cake. Rtid
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Update:
############################################ Donny +34
###################################### Argyle +18
################################## Portsmouth +28
############################ Stevenage +13
########################## Luton +20
######################### Exeter +17
######################### Carlisle 0
####################### Blackpool +20
##################### Mansfield +4
##################### Wycombe +2
####################### Cambridge +7
##################### Colchester +2
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Worst scenario finish is now 5th........
Team P Pts MAX PTS
1 Doncaster 40 81 99
2 Plymouth 40 75 93
3 Portsmouth 40 71 89
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Stevenage 40 65 83
5 Luton Town 40 63 81
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
6 Exeter City 40 62 80
7 Carlisle 40 62 80
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Blackpool 40 60 78
9 Mansfield 40 58 76
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That would take a monumental collapse.
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That would take a monumental collapse.
We've suffered worse... last year!! :lol:
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It won't happen.
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For what its worth, and I loathe predicting too much, I think promotion vs Mansfield, Champs vs Exeter.
Bump!
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That would take a monumental collapse.
We've suffered worse... last year!! :lol:
This would honestly be worse than last year. We can afford to lose FOUR of our last six games and still finish in the top 3. Even I think we will almost certainly be promoted next week and I like to keep my feet on the ground.
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We can lose 5 of our last 6 and go up, 2 pts mathematically secures it...
Ignoring the fact that Stevenage need 6 wins on the spin as well. If they lose one match, we go up automatically......
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Nice feeling isn't it after the last few seasons. Division 1 here we come as an unstoppable force
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None!!!
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Can we change this now to the title. Ten it is then. Back to countdown.
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Maximum points for the top 3 sides:
DRFC - 99 pts
PAFC - 93
PFC - 89
At the moment the next target is 94 points. Ten from 5 games, which of course would drop should Plymouth drop points..
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Pompey play Plymouth next Friday so it could be Wycombe we wrap it up at potentially? or have my maths gone walkabouts.
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My reckoning is that two more wins gives us 90 points.
Five wins out of five for Portsmouth would give them 89 points.
If Portsmouth did win all five it means that the best Plymouth could do is get 90 points and our goal difference is much better than theirs so they couldn't get past us either.
Three wins from our games means we win it irrespective of what Plymouth do but a Portsmouth win over Plymouth on Friday massively helps us.
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My calculator says we can win it by next Monday if results go our way!!!!!!!! Let's do it in the bank holiday sunshine then.. rtid
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Yep I'm all for that and credit where it's due but for a very dogged attempt to win the title by Argyle ; the title would have been in the bag by now.
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Yep I'm all for that and credit where it's due but for a very dogged attempt to win the title by Argyle ; the title would have been in the bag by now.
It would have been... its still mightily close though...
The fat lady is clearing her throat.
I hope we win the league at home aswell.
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2 wins out of 5 gives us a 12 pt lead with goal difference, meaning Plymouth need 5 wins from 5. That Aint gonna happen, they are too inconsistent, so just maybe, 1 more win and a draw is enough..
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Post Mansfield, red spodgy # is current guaranteed championship point.
########################################### Donny +35
##################################### Argyle +19
################################# Portsmouth +30
######################### Luton +21
######################## Stevenage +9
##################### Exeter +16
##################### Carlisle -1
################### Blackpool +18
################### Cambridge +8
################### Colchester +6
################## Wycombe +2
################# Accrington +3
################# Mansfield +3
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Four points from our last five games will take the title. Plymouth will get no more than 10 points from their last 5.
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It would be great to finish with a flourish and get max points with JM on 30 + goals too.
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I would love to see JM hit 30 goals along the way to us winning the title.
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I think that if JM hits 30 goals we will almost definitely win the title. Unless he got them in one game and we lose the rest. 😉
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If JM hits 30 goals and we win the title ; we have just about cleaned up on everything this season.
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Maximum points for top 3 is now:
Doncaster - 97
Plymouth - 91
Portsmouth - 87
We have 85, so 7 points it is, but as before today, that can go down. Realistically 6 due to goal difference, and 3 to put Portsmouth out of the equation..
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Post Colchester. The red splodgy # is current guaranteed championship point.
########################################## Donny +35
################################## Argyle +19
############################## Portsmouth +30
###################### Luton +21
#################### Exeter +17
#################### Stevenage +8
################## Carlisle -1
################ Blackpool +18
################ Colchester +6
################ Mansfield +4
############### Cambridge +7
############## Accrington +3
############## Wycombe +1
############# Grimsby -3
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Just looking To the 4th placed team, as expected they are picking up the pts at a similar pace to how they have done all season, so the 73 to 74 pts that I said was all we needed to coming to fruition.
Even now folks are suggesting Plymouth will win all 4 games so we need so many points to be safe. AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!!! After last week I said a win and a draw would more than likely be enough. We have the draw. So win on Monday and that should be enough. You heard it here first. We won't get the trophy on Monday but still, that points tally won't be bettered. Rtid
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I am not saying Plymouth will win every game. All I am showing is the minimum points today, that will guarantee winning the league.
I expect that level to drop.
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Marquis probably won't hit 30 now, I don't think. Hope I'm wrong.
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Based on average points gained so far over 42 games, Plymouth will Finnish on 86 to 87 points. So one win out of 4 puts us over that marker. 2 wins smashed it. I thoroughly expect the title to be sat waiting for us at the Exeter game,
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Will Plymouth Finnish... Or will Plymouth Swede?
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Will Plymouth Finnish... Or will Plymouth Swede?
Doh, I noticed that after I posted. Lol
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Post Blackpool. The red splodgy # is current guaranteed championship point.
##################################### Donny +34
################################## Argyle +24
############################## Portsmouth +32
#################### Luton +21
################## Stevenage +8
################# Exeter +16
################ Blackpool +19
################ Carlisle -1
############### Cambridge +8
############## Colchester +6
############## Accrington +4
############## Mansfield +4
############## Wycombe +3
########## Grimsby -4
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Marquis probably won't hit 30 now, I don't think. Hope I'm wrong.
You wouldn't think so,still a great season regardless for the lad.
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BRR your brilliant splodgy analysis should be everywhere
In fact I bet you two pints of lager and a packet of crisps that your Splodge-ness abounds. :chair:
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I have seen that band, DU. About 6 or 7 years ago in a dingy club in Cambridge supporting Bad Manners.
It was great, the only thing was I was driving, so couldn't enjoy it as much as I would have otherwise..
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BRR your brilliant splodgy analysis should be everywhere
In fact I bet you two pints of lager and a packet of crisps that your Splodge-ness abounds. :chair:
:thumbsup:
Shhh! I robbed it from the Plymouth board whilst they were under the table with two flaggons of scrumpy and a crate of pasties :rolleyes:
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Post Wycombe. The red splodgy # is current guaranteed championship point.
################################## Donny +33
################################ Argyle +24
############################## Portsmouth +33
#################### Luton +22
################# Exeter +18
################ Blackpool +22
############### Stevenage +7
############## Mansfield +5
############## Wycombe +4
############## Carlisle -1
############ Cambridge +7
############ Colchester +6
########### Accrington +3
########## Grimsby -2