What has happened to DRFC Attendances?

[Mr1Croft]

In the last couple of years the average Doncaster Rovers attendance continues to drop, this season has proved no different but what exactly is the cause of the decline? One possible solution that attendances are dropping around the country overall but is the decline at DRFC in line with the average attendance drop?

The purpose of the short study report is to look at the attendance of Doncaster Rovers and establish how the attendances of the season differ with the attendances from the previous 2 seasons, then from this the report will look at how the drop in attendances reflects the drop in attendances around the country in the top two leagues. If the percentage drop in average attendances at DRFC is greater than the national average then it is only right to explore what is exactly the reason for decline.

DRFC; 2009-2012

Firstly this report will not look at the 2008/09 season because it was our first season after promotion and that would naturally mean a rise in attendances from the previous season because DRFC have not performed marginally better since that season it would be foolish to include it. Instead this will look at the 2009/10, 2010/11 and the 20 home games of the current 2011/12 season.

Because this season we are yet to play 3 games at home it would be prudent to compare the 23 games of the last two seasons against the 20 of this season, therefore the first 20 homes of both 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons are being used and the last 3 games in both seasons have been ignored.

Below are each of the 3 seasons mapped out against each other on a line graph.

[attachment=1113]DRFCattendances.jpg[/attachment]

Further on that is the average attendance of each season, shown below;

[attachment=1115]DRFCaverageattendances.jpg[/attachment]

From the 2009/10 season, the average attendance dropped by an 8%, in fact the attendance of the 2011/12 season is 13% less than the 2009/10 season. As depressing as that may seem the actual percentage dropped between 2010/11 and 2011/12 is 6% which represents a drop of almost 600 spectators. But is this a decline that reflects the overall decline in the Premiership and Championship. The teams that were relegated to League one in 2010/11 and promoted from League 1 in 2011/12 have not been taken into account.

Overall

Below is a graph showing the percentage change of the 41 clubs that have competed in the Championship or PL for the last 2 seasons (2011/12 and 2010/11).

[attachment=1111]PLChampattendances.jpg[/attachment]

As shown only 15 teams have so far achieved an average increase and 3 of those teams have been promoted from the N-power Championship to the Premier League. Taking these results into account the average change in attendances is -3%, only Crystal Palace of all the 41 teams accurately represent the national average.

Doncaster Rovers' average drop of 6% is therefore double that of the national average, of the 15 teams that have done worse than DRFC, 3 of those were relegated from the PL to the Championship last season. On a more positive note when you take into account the teams that are fighting DRFC for survival this season only Portsmouth have a better average decrease than DRFC, to add to that Portsmouth were also subject to a 10 points deduction this season which would otherwise not have them in the relegation battle.

Saunders/SOD

It is important to look at the average attendances under the last 2 managers, it will provide evidence as to whether the change in manager has resulted in a drop in attendances and it can also be used to assess a manager's popularity among the fans. Below is a graph showing the attendances of both Dean Saunders and Sean O'Driscoll in the last 34 home games as Dean Saunders has only played 17 home games.

[attachment=1112]DSSODattendances.jpg[/attachment]

This shows that SOD achieved greater attendances, one could point to the league standings and say that because DRFC have been in the relegation zone for most of Dean Saunders' home games the attendances were naturally going to be lower. But to counter this argument one would point out that Sean O'Driscoll only won 3 of the 17 games used in this sample whereas Dean Saunders won 4. Sean O'Driscoll picked up 15 points in the last 17 games whereas Dean Saunders picked up 19. This argument comes down to what keeps attendances rising; results or league position?

Here is the averages of Dean Saunders and SOD:

[attachment=1114]DSSODaverageattendances.jpg[/attachment]

I do think however that these figures are misleading when you take into account that of the SOD games there were 3 games that generally generate a bigger attendance than usual. 2 of the 3 are the last home game of the season and the first home game of the season, both attracting over 11000 in attendance and also the game against Crystal Palace last year that was free admission and as a result brought 14000 fans through the gates. if you didn't take these into account I don't think the decrease would be much bigger than the 3% already expected (national average).

Pricing

I do not think that pricing is down to the 6% decrease either, the prices announced at the beginning of this season did generally seem high, but the actual amount of games where spectators were charged that amount is roughly equal to the amount of games that were either Chairman's choice, Category 2 or 3, part of the Multi-ticket option of the Sun-vouchers. Although I do not have the actual figures to show this the average price of a ticket this season will not be much higher than the average price of a ticket last season.

I think the reason why our attendance has fallen 6% isn't entirely down to the factors above but I do think they have contributed, it was already expected to fall by 3% in line with the national average but as the graph above shows of the 21 teams that fell below the national average, only 5 performed better than DRFC. When you take into account that DRFC have picked up less points than any of these teams, and have gone through a change in manager that [it is fair to say] hasn't been the most popular decision I don't think our attendances are a cause for concern just yet.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Interesting stats though important to also consider we had the rise in attendance after being promoted and the consequent drop back after this.

I posted on a thread a little while ago some stats showing how change over the three (nearly 4 completed now) seasons following promotion, compared to the 26 other clubs between 2000 and 2007. That was using the baseline of the attendance in the promotion year for all those clubs.

The increase in our attendance in that first year was exactly 50%, Barnsley were next with 40.8%, then Colchester 37.7%, Gillingham 32.6%.

The second season comparison to the promotion year was Wigan 58.7% (promotion year), Cochester 38.8%, Donny 37.8%, Bristol 31.2%.

Third season was Barnsley 45.8%, Walsall 39.4%, Donny 28.6%, Blackpool 25.2% (promotion), Reading 21.6%.

Fourth season (using our current figures) Barnsley 43.3%, Reading 43.2% (promotion), Gillingham 21.5%, Donny 17.7%.

Not sure what Barnsley are doing! But otherwise we're doing well.

The comparison between SOD and DS in the OP isn't relevant at all IMO.

Attachment of full stats below.

[1879Rovers]

If you look at football attendances in general, they are on the decline. High ticket prices and hard times are the main cause. It is not just at Doncaster Rovers that attendances have suffered over the past few years. As a percentage we are probably better than most.

[The Red Baron]

The last sentence got me: \"I don't think our attendances are a cause for concern just yet.\"

I doubt John Ryan would agree and neither would I. We've been on a downward path since 2008-09 and it is disappointing that no-one connected to the club has bothered to find out why people have stopped going. Price and the state of the economy are factors, but I sense there are some Doncaster/ Rovers specific factors that can only be teased out by some proper market research.

[idler]

Maybe if we subtracted the away supporters it would give a far truer
reflection of how we are performing crowd wise. We are no longer a
new championship ground to notch up.
We have also lost both Sheffield clubs and Scunthorpe who brought
good followings, this must make a difference.

[wilts rover]

Could I summarise that by saying that 'this report proves fans are fickle', the better the team is doing, the higher the attendence, the worse the results, the worse the attendence, hence the lower revenue, hence the decline in performance, etc, etc'?

Where statistics fall down is qualative anaylisis. Are these the same people who come week after week - or is it a different set? Do people pick and choose? IMO we have somewhere between 5-8k 'regular' supporters, maybe another 3k who only come when we're winning, and another 3k who would come to 'big' games.

Saunders took over a team at the bottom of the Championship. O'Driscoll was on a roll - there was a lot of optomism for 2009-2010 after that run at the end of 2008-2009. Hardly a fair base line to draw a comparison.

Have all teams who were relegated from this division shown the same % fall from the season before, say the past 5 years?

[DonnyBiz]

In my uneducated opinion, some factors could be as already mentioned in parts losing the matches against the Sheff teams. You also have the financial constraints forced upon us at the moment by the tossers in downing street. People have to prioritise their expenditure and high priced football tickets comes way down the list when you have to live! How many fans have increased their family sizes? More mouths to feed. New jobs = different fuel expense/travelling costs. Losing jobs/redundancy? All price hikes that are spiralling out of control upwards when wages aren't are a factor.

Another major impact imo is constant losses. Obviously we've been losing more matches over the last however long and it takes its toll on people. You can only take upset for so long before giving up. Some people will take longer to reach that point, but 2 seasons ending with near possible relegation will put some people off attending no doubt.

Someone mentioned market research. I definitely agree that is needed to be done by someone. Unless that's addressed it's all speculation and that wont save our club. Is it a case of money in = better players, therefore more success = higher attendances? Or is there something more? Like the Donny public in general prefer cricket or horse racing? If that's the case then the club need to affiliate with those sports to create some sort of Donny sports council/club whereby a certain offer is made to those followers to get them into the KM also. e.g. anyone? Just an idea guys

[WBDRFC]

Pricing

I do not think that pricing is down to the 6% decrease either, the prices announced at the beginning of this season did generally seem high, but the actual amount of games where spectators were charged that amount is roughly equal to the amount of games that were either Chairman's choice, Category 2 or 3, part of the Multi-ticket option of the Sun-vouchers. Although I do not have the actual figures to show this the average price of a ticket this season will not be much higher than the average price of a ticket last season.

I think the reason why our attendance has fallen 6% isn't entirely down to the factors above but I do think they have contributed, it was already expected to fall by 3% in line with the national average but as the graph above shows of the 21 teams that fell below the national average, only 5 performed better than DRFC. When you take into account that DRFC have picked up less points than any of these teams, and have gone through a change in manager that [it is fair to say] hasn't been the most popular decision I don't think our attendances are a cause for concern just yet.

Pricing has been the sticking point for me this season.

I have attended about 75% of home games this season, and except for Peterborough (£15), every game has been either £22 or £27. I don't read The Sun, so don't know when/how to get vouchers for FL games.

£22 is at the top end of what I think is affordable for the town. £27 is way too high. The Derby game was a category A game. Derby are not doing well this season, and they are not a \"big\" club these days, so I cannot understand why that was a category A game. I missed the next game (Millwall, thankfully), because I spent too much at the Derby game and needed to be selective of future matches.

The club's pricing has, in my opinion, been based on what other Championship clubs charge. There are some \"big\", well supported clubs in the Championship who can, and do, charge high prices. We are neither \"big\" or well supported, Doncaster is in the top 10 towns/cities for unemployment rates in the UK, wages are lower than the national average, and a significant proportion of the town have allegiances to other clubs. The pricing should reflect these local circumstances, but sadly doesn't.

Last year the club set the budget for the season on the assumption they would get averages attendances of 11,000 per game. So I imagine that John Ryan will be very concerned at current attendances. The drop will only continue while the club try to extract more money out of the local population than they are willing to pay.

[Sheepskin Stu]

I said on another thread that when people have to invest a high percentage of their disposable income on watching ninety minutes of \"losing\" football it's no surprise that attendances are down. It really isn't a complicated issue. Make football easily affordable for everyone in the town. Make it so they don't have to plan months in advance to attend one match.

[RTID75]

And further to that, we all know that 'Diamond' Dave preferred a half empty stadium at full whack than a far higher attendance at a reduced rate.

[ravenrover]

Or is it simply that people who attend like to see the home team win a few games.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

If Rovers were winning a few games we'd have far better crowds, considering we're in a relegation certainty it's no surprise.  It wouldn't surprise me if we have bigger home crowds next season after a few wins....

[dickos1]

I said on another thread that when people have to invest a high percentage of their disposable income on watching ninety minutes of \"losing\" football it's no surprise that attendances are down. It really isn't a complicated issue. Make football easily affordable for everyone in the town. Make it so they don't have to plan months in advance to attend one match.

The prices have been reduced many times and the attendances hardly altered. It's the same people coming whatever the cost, therefore reducing the prices would just lead to a loss in revenue.

[Wild Rover]

Excitement is required. SOD football pretty but not exciting, Saunders football not so pretty, but equally nothing to excite, also when 1 match costs equivelent of a reasonable drinking session, and quite possibly 10-12 % of take home pay ( obviously bigger % if unemployed )....... Possibly 30%.......then no one is going to suffer that.

I agree to some extent wiyh Dikos1 that when prices have been reduced crowds have not really increased by a significant margin, but, these \"Reductions\" tend to be advertised \"Only no the WWW\", and at a weeks notice. Wasn't it last season where Swansea game was \"Reduced\" in price with a good deal of notice, and this site organised Flyers, i think that game was a significant attendance improvement, though in terms of revenue probably less than if normal prices charged.

Anyway, back to the start, give excitement and crowds will increase.

[Sheepskin Stu]

I said on another thread that when people have to invest a high percentage of their disposable income on watching ninety minutes of \"losing\" football it's no surprise that attendances are down. It really isn't a complicated issue. Make football easily affordable for everyone in the town. Make it so they don't have to plan months in advance to attend one match.

The prices have been reduced many times and the attendances hardly altered. It's the same people coming whatever the cost, therefore reducing the prices would just lead to a loss in revenue.

Those price reductions were poorly advertised and were not a coherant pricing plan. It's going to require a bit of thought from the club.

You sound just like Dave Morris.

[CusworthRovers]

The most obvious factor is a successful team. The folk of Doncaster will come and have come if the team are doing well. However there comes a point when you simply cannot do well (as perceived by Jo Public) anymore.

All things being equal, I remember buying a ST in the Mainstand and was told we had only sold about 600. In reality that is not that long ago (I even think it was this century), so when we can now muster an army of 5-7k ST's in this short space of time, it spells out that DRFC has done extremely well

[Thinwhiteduke]

A successful team helps....but it wouldnt make any difference to me going into next season, I simply cannot afford it and its with a heavy heart that I have not renewed my season ticket.

Its a hard economy...I cant justify that outlay to my family when we are trying to cut back on everything else. Sorry JR....but my family priorities come first.

[pubteam]

Saunders v SOD attendances? What a load of pointless shit.

The reason attendances have dropped off is probably because the novelty of watching Championship football has worn off for the Doncaster public, so all the Johnny Come Lately picnic brigade have fooked off back to their sofas to watch ManUre.

[CusworthRovers]

Absolutely TWD.

The biggest draw is a successful team

The biggest withdraw is personal circumstances

Both have the biggest bearing on our fan base.

[Mr1Croft]

Saunders v SOD attendances? What a load of pointless shit.

The reason attendances have dropped off is probably because the novelty of watching Championship football has worn off for the Doncaster public, so all the Johnny Come Lately picnic brigade have fooked off back to their sofas to watch ManUre.

It is something to consider, the change in manager has been the only difference in this DRFC side. It was also important to disprove that theory before someone mentioned it.

[pubteam]

Saunders v SOD attendances? What a load of pointless shit.

The reason attendances have dropped off is probably because the novelty of watching Championship football has worn off for the Doncaster public, so all the Johnny Come Lately picnic brigade have fooked off back to their sofas to watch ManUre.

It is something to consider, the change in manager has been the only difference in this DRFC side. It was also important to disprove that theory before someone mentioned it.

Our attendances this season have been pretty much the same under either manager. Our two lowest attendances - 7,500 ish - have been against Bristol City (August) and Millwall (March). They were low attendances because they probably weren't the most attractive games, and the away team didn't bring too many. In most other games, the attendance has been around 8/9000, swelling to around 10k when the opposition brings a decent following over.

Plus, as you correctly point out, anomalies have occurred that have skewed the figures. A full house against Crystal Palace last season wasn't indicative of the league position, the number of away fans or who the manager was, it was solely due to the fact that tickets were given away.

[WBDRFC]

Our attendances this season have been pretty much the same under either manager. Our two lowest attendances - 7,500 ish - have been against Bristol City (August) and Millwall (March). They were low attendances because they probably weren't the most attractive games, and the away team didn't bring too many. In most other games, the attendance has been around 8/9000, swelling to around 10k when the opposition brings a decent following over.

Plus, as you correctly point out, anomalies have occurred that have skewed the figures. A full house against Crystal Palace last season wasn't indicative of the league position, the number of away fans or who the manager was, it was solely due to the fact that tickets were given away.

Last season had a large number of promotions, with ticket prices of £0, £10, £15 - in fact any price other than the full price. So I don't think the manager has any bearing on the fall in attendances this season. It has been decreasing every year since our first year in the Championship.

[Mr1Croft]

The main reason for that (although I cannot prove it) is because attendances have been falling in general across the country. The reason as to why is because the game has been promoted as a family game in the last few years, but while the clubs have been focusing on getting it to the new market they only interacted with the 'hardcore' fan when their season tickets were up for renewal, and it is the same story now. The club is more focused on bringing in families that the fans it ignore (despite how much loyalty and commitment they have showed) have started to fade away slowly and as a result lower overall attendances and less atmosphere.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

And we still couldn't get the fans in, even before the slump started in January 2011.

A record number of home fans attended the Swansea game in an attendance of 13,614 when the club somehow found a way to use the North West corner for home fans, when previously they said it couldn't be done.

Another Dave Morrisism.

The Millwall home game had a family of 4 for £25 and the attendance was 10,356. The previous home game was a lucrative home derby where Morris was licking his lips thinking of all those people paying £28 and the attendance was 8,985.

It seems their policy of gaining a few quid in the short term has lost thousands in the long term. It was always a high risk strategy banking on top half/play off position to make it pay.

Personally I detest the variable pricing of matches and I still firmly believe fixed match pricing at £20 a pop irrespective of opposition would have stabilised things. It would have restored faith in the value of a ST as the savings would be fixed instead of being uncertain.

[WBDRFC]

And we still couldn't get the fans in, even before the slump started in January 2011.

A record number of home fans attended the Swansea game in an attendance of 13,614 when the club somehow found a way to use the North West corner for home fans, when previously they said it couldn't be done.

Another Dave Morrisism.

The Millwall home game had a family of 4 for £25 and the attendance was 10,356. The previous home game was a lucrative home derby where Morris was licking his lips thinking of all those people paying £28 and the attendance was 8,985.

It seems their policy of gaining a few quid in the short term has lost thousands in the long term. It was always a high risk strategy banking on top half/play off position to make it pay.

Personally I detest the variable pricing of matches and I still firmly believe fixed match pricing at £20 a pop irrespective of opposition would have stabilised things. It would have restored faith in the value of a ST as the savings would be fixed instead of being uncertain.

Totally agree with you on that one. It's impossible to work out the savings on a ST with the current system, and that makes it less attractive when finances are stretched.

Also, I don't think the current system attracts much-needed casual fans. They turn up without knowing how much it is going to cost them. It's not the best way to encourage somebody to turn up on a last-minute decision. Accepting payment by card on match-days would also help immensely. Football appears to be the only business that makes it as hard as possible to give them money.

[Thinwhiteduke]

Absolutely TWD.

The biggest draw is a successful team

The biggest withdraw is personal circumstances

Both have the biggest bearing on our fan base.

Stinks though.

I am so pissed that I cannot afford a Season Ticket next season (and no, I dont smoke and barely drink so I can hardly cut back there!)....If the early bird prices had stretched until end of April I may have been able to make it just, but rules are rules.

[lee.j09]

Absolutely TWD.

The biggest draw is a successful team

The biggest withdraw is personal circumstances

Both have the biggest bearing on our fan base.

Stinks though.

I am so pissed that I cannot afford a Season Ticket next season (and no, I dont smoke and barely drink so I can hardly cut back there!)....If the early bird prices had stretched until end of April I may have been able to make it just, but rules are rules.

i am in the same position an extra month or so on the deadline id be able to scrape the pennys together

[goalkick]

problem is money is short in the majority of households,people are struggling to keep their heads above water.hope the club realise this and make another offer to assist loyal supporters.

[Filo]

problem is money is short in the majority of households,people are struggling to keep their heads above water.hope the club realise this and make another offer to assist loyal supporters.

I`m not sure what you`re asking here, do you want a furthur reduction in prices or are you wanting an extension in the early bird deadline, if it`s the latter I don`t think that`s fair on the folk that have scraped the pennies together to meet the current deadline, however, I think there`s a case for a halfway deadline in terms of the cost of a season ticket