Brexit Negotiations

[Bentley Bullet]

I'm not happy with that. But I'd be even less happy if I fully believed the doom and gloom mongers and started to be as negative as them.

Besides, what can you or I do about it, other than hope the 'experts' have got it wrong, again?

[Glyn_Wigley]

If the next GDP figures show growth less than 1.5% then we will be in a recession.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

What can "we" do?

I gave you an analogy 18 months back.

Imagine you're on a plane. There's a big nasty thunderstorm ahead. One pilot wants to fly through it. One wants to go round it.

There are aeronautical engineers on board. They say that if you fly through the storm, the structure of the plane will be endangered. The bullish pilot argues passionately that everything will be fine. And that he'll try to avoid the worst of the storm anyway. The more cautious one says he's worried that there will be problems.

The passengers have a vote and decide to ignore the experts and fly through.

You start flying through. At first there's no massive sign of trouble. Then the plane starts vibrating. Bits start falling off. Not the precise bits that were predicted. But some.

Meantime, the bullish pilot actually ignores what he said about avoiding the worst of the storm, and flies straight into the worst of the wind.

That is an almost perfect analogy for what has happened.

So. As a passenger, do you sit there and say, "well the experts didn't get it right. Let's just carry on." Or do you start to think that the original vote was rather iffy. That things are turning out pretty bad. And that it might be worth pushing for a change of plan?

[Filo]

BB

What can "we" do?

I have you an analogy 18 months back.

Imagine you're on a plane. There's a big nasty thunderstorm ahead. One pilot wants to fly through it. One wants to go round it.

There are aeronautical engineers on board. They say that if you fly through the storm, the structure of the plane will be endangered. The bullish pilot argues passionately that everything will be fine. And that he'll try to avoid the worst of the storm anyway. The more cautious one says he's worried that there will be problems.

The passengers have a vote and decide to ignore the experts and fly through.

You start flying through. At first there's no massive sign of trouble. Then the plane starts vibrating. Bits start falling off. Not the precise bits that were predicted. But some.

Meantime, the bullish pilot actually ignores what he said about avoiding the worst of the storm, and flies straight into the worst of the wind.

That is an almost perfect analogy for what has happened.

So. As a passenger, do you sit there and say, "well the experts didn't get it right. Let's just carry on." Or do you start to think that the original vote was rather iffy. That things are turning out pretty bad. And that it might be worth pushing for a change of plan?

Did the plane survive the storm?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dunno Filo. It hasn't got to the worst part yet. But the "experts'" predictions are broadly coming true.

Still, the pilot says it'll be alright if we just shut up and let him/her deal with it.

[Filo]

Dunno Filo. It hasn't got to the worst part yet. But the "experts'" predictions are broadly coming true.

Still, the pilot says it'll be alright if we just shut up and let him/her deal with it.

You said he had got to the worse bit

"Meantime, the bullish pilot actually ignores what he said about avoiding the worst of the storm, and flies straight into the worst of the wind"

😀

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, Is our drop in performance entirely down to Brexit or do you think the general election result could have contributed to it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo
Right then, if that's the level we've got to.  Flying TOWARDS the worst. As in, we were told that we could leave the EU without leaving the Single Market. Now we're heading towards leaving the single market. We've seen a drop in economicl performance and a massive drop in foreign investment just because of the threat of that. We haven't hit the worst part yet.

BB. Not unless the markets predicted the election result. Our GDP growth rate relative to that of the EU has been slipping ever since June last year. And the latest figures only go up to the end of July. So there's only 1 post General Election month in that 13 month slippage.

[wilts rover]

What are you talking about?!!! You asked me "What has sovereignty got to do with Brexit negotiations today"? I answered by saying "Some people believe that we will still be under most EU rules for years even after Brexit. Maybe they are concerned about this affecting the country's chances of regaining sovereignty should  Brexit negotiations go against us".

I suggest you ask them, not me. I only answered your question of what has Sovereignty got to do with negotiations today!

Remember Mr Wilts, You seem to be the expert on everything about everything. I've always insisted that predicting the result of Brexit would be complete conjecture. I've NEVER, EVER tried to imply otherwise.

You have certainly more than implied that the Brexit negotiations have broken down because of 'sovereignty' or is writing it not implying it?

It makes me an expert because I answer your questions does it? Seems everybody is an expert these days Mr Bentley.

Mr Wilts, where have I implied that Brexit negotiations have broken down, because of sovereignty or otherwise? I don't even know if negotiations have broken down!

Mr Bentley, I asked 'what has sovereignty got to do with Brexit negotiations today. You answered

Some people believe that we will still be under most EU rules for years even after Brexit. Maybe they are concerned about this affecting the country's chances of regaining sovereignty should  Brexit negotiations go against us.

So if you answer a question about Brexit negotiations breaking down with a reply about people being concerned about sovereignty what does that imply?

I am surprised you dont know they broke down last week. I would post you a link to the news stories about them but I know you dont like people putting sources on their information. Maybe you need to rub your crystal ball harder.

[Bentley Bullet]

Mr Wilts, where have I implied that Brexit negotiations have broken down, because of sovereignty or otherwise? I don't even know if negotiations have broken down!

[wilts rover]

Mr Bentley I refer you to the answer given above.

[Bentley Bullet]

I think you've got your wires crossed Mr Wilts. Maybe you've blown a fuse?

[selby]

  I voted to stay in, knowing that a vote to come out would be disruptive.Neither Cameron(the  fool) or Bojo (the bafoon)  put up much of a credible arguement why we should stay in or leave,and the E.U. giving next to nothing to Cameron,and  scaremongering, and the influx of Syrian and economic immigrants from Africa being at its height swayed the electorate.
  Endless debates with second class M.Ps. mostly with very little substance in debate  except to slag each other off, let quick thinking Farage make them look fools,he had an answer to all their quips because of Camerons failure,and the repetitive nature of the remainers arguement.
  Now the die is cast,the remainers are being seen as to be people who think that the common people are not to be trusted to make such an important decision,and in my opinion have succeeded in alienated even more of the electorate against staying in the E.U.
  Never before has the electorate been more divided,but the latest polls have shown a widening of the vote to leave, as more resentment against the E.U. leaders of the negotiations play hard ball,and ours try to turn it into a battle of the generations,pitting  young against old.
  Me, I would now vote out,I do not like to be took for granted,nor do I like being threatened,what I do want, and expect, is for our M.Ps. to start doing their best for this country instead of looking after themselves.
   If they can do that then maybe,after a few years, we will come out of the other end of this mess in a better position as a country.

[wilts rover]

Not sure why you think my wires are crossed Mr Bentley. I was you who introduced sovereignty into a discussion about the Brexit negotiations - which since this topic started have broken down/come to stalemate. Maybe you are just dreaming it all.

[Bentley Bullet]

One of the main reasons people said they voted to leave was to take back sovereignty from the huge bureaucratic entity with its complex maze of laws that is the EU. So why are they now surprised that it is acting like a complex bureaucratic entity - because that's what it is!

Na Mr Wilts, it was this fella above.

[wilts rover]

We all hope that Selby (even Bentley and myself) but there are some very different views on how we might get there - and how long it will take.

[wilts rover]

One of the main reasons people said they voted to leave was to take back sovereignty from the huge bureaucratic entity with its complex maze of laws that is the EU. So why are they now surprised that it is acting like a complex bureaucratic entity - because that's what it is!

Na Mr Wilts, it was this fella above.

Yeah thats the argument that was was given for the referendum for leaving the EU because the EU is bureaucratic. And when the EU proves to be bureaucratic during the negotiations why are people surprised the negotiations are in flexible/break down/come to a stalemate.

So I repeat once again - what has sovereignty got to do with the negotiations? The only time I used it was in referring back to the referendum?

[Bentley Bullet]

Wilts. You said it was me who introduced sovereignty into a discussion about the Brexit negotiations. I didn't - You did!

[hoolahoop]

  I voted to stay in, knowing that a vote to come out would be disruptive.Neither Cameron(the  fool) or Bojo (the bafoon)  put up much of a credible arguement why we should stay in or leave,and the E.U. giving next to nothing to Cameron,and  scaremongering, and the influx of Syrian and economic immigrants from Africa being at its height swayed the electorate.
  Endless debates with second class M.Ps. mostly with very little substance in debate  except to slag each other off, let quick thinking Farage make them look fools,he had an answer to all their quips because of Camerons failure,and the repetitive nature of the remainers arguement.
  Now the die is cast,the remainers are being seen as to be people who think that the common people are not to be trusted to make such an important decision,and in my opinion have succeeded in alienated even more of the electorate against staying in the E.U.
  Never before has the electorate been more divided,but the latest polls have shown a widening of the vote to leave, as more resentment against the E.U. leaders of the negotiations play hard ball,and ours try to turn it into a battle of the generations,pitting  young against old.
  Me, I would now vote out,I do not like to be took for granted,nor do I like being threatened,what I do want, and expect, is for our M.Ps. to start doing their best for this country instead of looking after themselves.
   If they can do that then maybe,after a few years, we will come out of the other end of this mess in a better position as a country.

" a widening of the vote to leave "  - really Selby then I take it you haven't seen the latest YouGov survey  :-

 https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/13/labour-flags-up-brexit-poll-which-suggests-public-regret-decision&ved=0ahUKEwj1t5OgufbWAhXHVRoKHak6DUMQFghVMAQ&usg=AOvVaw1v1DDombQ20EwBXK_pCsPS

Selby , I respect your views and understand to some extent why you think as you do. However you are a lonely light in the darkness travelling the opposite way to the general direction of travel .
The pendulum has started to swing.........

To use the BST analogy of the pilot flying in the storm ; whilst the passengers have persuaded the pilot to fly into less turbulent airspace - you have said feck it let's turn back into the storm and see if this old plane stays together knowing that no-one is likely to survive the plane crash. Save the half dozen or so who will parachute out landing gently on their tax free havens below. 

[idler]

The supposed original navigator who set up the referendum and then ran a less than helpful remain campaign then left the plane. Despite assurances that he would lead the country through whatever the outcome.
He's now happily swanning around the USA.

[Bentley Bullet]

I wonder if he and his mate George got any parachute payments?

[keith79]

I believe brexit is like a marriage. One person ask to other to change. They said no. Should the unhappy one be expected to stay? Or leave?

[Bentley Bullet]

Do you mean the EU is acting like a spoilt Barbie doll and the UK is like poor old Ken?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I believe brexit is like a marriage. One person ask to other to change. They said no. Should the unhappy one be expected to stay? Or leave?

More like a swingers commune of 28 couples.

One man asked if he could keep on comin to the orgies without bringing his wife along.


Seriously Keith, your post does say a lot. This attitude that there's an equality of power and leverage between the UK (one state with about 70million people and a GDP of about $2.5tr) and the rest of the EU (27 states with a population of about 450million and a GDP of about $14tr.

Look at those numbers. And then ask yourself why THEY should bend over backwards to accommodate US.

[Bentley Bullet]

Of course they shouldn't bend over backwards to accommodate us, I'm not sure who is expecting them to. I would imagine our aim is to prevent an unfair divorce settlement which has been designed to discourage other EU countries from wanting to separate.

[selby]

  Hoola,I do not know which poll I saw showing that the vote was widening the opposite way to your poll,and realise polls mean nothing dependant on the area you take the poll in.
  The fact is the disruption we knew would happen is now with us,so everyone can now watch the goings on of the poor set of idiots fronting both sides,and realine their thoughts on what now is going on.
   While ever the E.U. project their side of the arguement to be about money they run the risk of getting the back up of the British electorate,and risk them backing the walk away tories.

[selby]

  Hoola,sorry to be a pain,my gut feeling is that we would be better off in the E.U. that reforms from the inside,but with people like Barnier,and drunkard fronting their case it will not happen.
   The leading Tory Brexiteers are from the same gangs of Tories that have never done the likes of me a favour all my life,and that goes for everyone who is not in the top 5% of earners in this country.The majority of us have had to live off the crums the top table left us,they let us own our own property,but now want us to use them to fund our care,an industry where they make billions out of.
  Never ever underestimate the ruling class in this country,when we do leave the E.U. within 3yrs they will have turned it to their advantage,we will be  a low wage deregulated industrial island off Europe,and if the E.U. think they will get their hands on the banking system in London they are living in dream land.
   If we get a bad deal,I would take a bet that within a couple of years there will be a run on the Euro,Barnier may have his day in the sunshine,but he and his mates will forever be  watching their backs from then on.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Of course they shouldn't bend over backwards to accommodate us, I'm not sure who is expecting them to. I would imagine our aim is to prevent an unfair divorce settlement which has been designed to discourage other EU countries from wanting to separate.

BB. I would also like to imagine that our aim is to get a fair deal. Do you think the EU doesn't also have that aim?

But here's the problem. The EU have consistently (and in my view, very correctly) said that there are three potentially hugely negative consequences of Brexit for the 450million EU citizens who aren't from the UK.
Irish Border
Rights of EU citizens domicilled in the UK
Our responsibility for the many commitments that we made to the EU budget which extent beyond March 2019.


The EU has (quite fairly in my opinion) said, "YOU have decided to leave. What are your plans for addressing these three issues. Until we get a resolution to those issues, we're not prepared to discuss the things that would be beneficial to you."

I cannot see anything vindictive or penalising or unfair in that stance. They are basically telling us that these are the real-world consequences which may potentially hurt a lot of people who had no say in our vote. We have a responsibility to ensure that we are going to be grown up and find solutions.

And that's the problem:
On the Irish Border, the key Brexiteers said it would be an easy problem to sort. But 16 months on, we've not proposed a remotely feasible solution.

On EU citizens, we are saying "You will have to trust us to be fair." Really? Would YOU trust Johnson, Gove, Davies, Grayling, Redwood, Fox and the string of others who lied through their teeth during the referendum, and who have painted the EU people living in the UK as feckless scroungers?

On the budget commitments, we have a Foreign Secretary saying that the EU can go whistle. That he wants us to have our cake and eat it. You have Rees-Mogg, a serious contender for next PM saying we should leave and pay not a penny after March 2019. They are like people who sign a contract to by a car on HP over 7 years, get 5 years down the line and decide that they don't want to pay anymore.

Look at it from the EU position. Ask who is negotiating in good faith.

[Filo]

So basically what the EU are saying is what they want is non negotiable and what we want is very much negotiable?

[bobjimwilly]

I think what people forget is that the EU is made up of all it's member countries; it's not really a case of the UK v the EU, its the UK v all the countries in the EU.
Theresa, Boris and it seems most brexiteers expect to get what is best for the UK over all these countries within the EU; it's simply not going to happen, and nor should it.

This whole f*ckig situation is appalling; the Brexit vote litereally came about so Cameron (remember him?) could consolidate his leadership within his own party and whip his backbenchers into line; that is it! That is the sole reason! There wasn't an apetite for it across the country; I'd never heard anyone in my family or social circle mention anything to do with leaving the EU, yet when the referendum came most of them voted leave? It's a ridiculous situation and one that could still be stopped if this PM had courage and conviction to follow what she originally believed in.... but she doesn't.