Looking grim for Labour

[IC1967]

Look, does Mrs Stubbs know you're being reckless with the family finances? Mrs IC1967 knows gambling is what I do for a living so she is fine with me betting. Does Mrs Stubbs know you've got a problem?

I refuse to allow you to lower the standard of living of your family. Just be grateful that one of us is allowing his head to rule his heart rather than the other way around.

[IC1967]

Dr Fisher seems to know what he is on about. He predicts a Tory victory but falling short of a majority by 16. He uses a scientific method for his prediction. However he doesn't possess my skills of intuition which show there will in fact be a Tory majority of 20. I think if Dr Fisher teamed up with me he'd be able to give more accurate forecasts.

http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/

[Glyn_Wigley]

What do your skills of intuition say will be the number of seats each party will win in the European elections in a couple of weeks?

[BillyStubbsTears]

We've been through this before Mick. It's not gambling. It's deciding where charity money will go.

Your call.

PS: 21 days left for Labour's poll figure to reach 26%. What do you reckon?

[IC1967]

What do your skills of intuition say will be the number of seats each party will win in the European elections in a couple of weeks?

I will answer that question when I get that abject apology you owe me.

[IC1967]

We've been through this before Mick. It's not gambling. It's deciding where charity money will go.

Look, the first step in dealing with a gambling addiction is to admit you have a problem. It is gambling. Just because the proceeds are going to charity doesn't make it not so. Just be grateful I have realised you've got a problem and will not take advantage of the situation. I'll even let you cancel the bet if you want to as it's obvious you are going to lose. Just issue an abject apology for doubting my prediction and we'll say no more about it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

I give hundreds of pounds to charity each year. If the Tories happen to gain more seats than Labour in 2015, you have the opportunity of deciding where some of that money goes to. If they don't, I'll still give the money to charity, but it will be a charity of my own choosing, whilst you will give an equal amount to a charity of my choosing.

Now, you being a gambling man, you'll appreciate that this doesn't meet any rational definition if gambling, in as much as I don't stand to be either up or down personally, whatever the outcome (although in sure you're going to find an irrational one in Mikipedia).

So, I'll ask again, do you want to double up? I'm perfectly happy to do so. You seem to have no faith in your predictions. Course, given that your previous predictions included
Rovers getting relegated in 2012/13
Dog Meat winning the National
Deflation by July 2014
Labour being on 26% in the polls by May 2014
I can sort if see why you don't believe your own predictions.

[IC1967]

So you haven't struck a proper bet with me then have you. I also give to charity. All that you are planning on doing is transferring from one charity to another. You are not risking any of Mrs Stubbs family allowance. I on the other hand was still going to give the same to charity as I'd already planned and if I lost that would have been extra out of my gambling profits.

So I take it back. You don't have a gambling problem as you don't understand what gambling is.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm lost Mick. Are you criticising me for gambling or for not gambling?

Or are you just talking ba-baa as usual?

[IC1967]

You're lost because you don't understand gambling. Here's a definition:


'To risk losing (an amount of money) in a game or bet'.

Now, you haven't risked losing any money. You've merely risked that your money would go to a charity of your choice or mine. That is not gambling. It is shifting money around which is a completely different thing. I give to charity, (modesty prevents me from saying how much I donate, but it is much more than you do) and I was risking money other than this money so I was gambling.

I accept that you thought you were gambling but given that you are not gambling, I think the best thing to do is call off the 'bet'.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Your definition is as one-dimensional as ever Mick. Gambling does not have to involve the possibility of losing money. There are many other things you could be the stake in a bet. Your life. Your wife.

As it happens, YOU are staking something on this Mick. Something which Shakespeare knew was far more valuable than money. You're staking your reputation. (OK. I realise you've gone all in on that stake several times and been taken to the cleaners, but here's another chance.)

So it really is a gamble Mick. What's really at stake is your predictions being made to look daft once again. M
But just to make it doubly interesting, the charity that I'll be asking you to donate to after you've lost is the Foundation for the Support of Orphaned Sons of Marxist Sandinista Freedom Fighters.

No need to bother telling me yours. It's an academic point.

[IC1967]

Look, you've not gambled in the true meaning of the word. You are just trying to be clever with money you have already allocated to charity. I was prepared to give extra money to charity if I lost. You were not. Shame on you.

Given the circumstances I think it best we call off the 'wager'.

As far as my reputation goes I couldn't care less what other people think about me. All I'm bothered about is what I think of myself. Shakespeare was obviously a crank if he thought reputation was so important. That says a lot about you. You espouse your views in order to enhance your reputation. I espouse my views without a second's thought as to what it will do to my reputation. I espouse my views because I truly believe what I say and am prepared for everyone else to think less of me if they want to.  I really couldn't care less

You on the other hand seem very bothered about your reputation. I wouldn't be if I was you. I have already destroyed it on many previous occasions.

[IC1967]

Oh dear. Things are worse than grim for Labour. The latest opinion polls in the leftie rag, the Guardian, show the Tories have now gone ahead of Labour! Get in.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/12/support-labour-drops-tories-lead-guardian-icm-poll

[BillyStubbsTears]

Carefully ignoring the one yesterday that had Labour 7% ahead.

Hey ho. As I've said for a while Mick, you my friend, make your conclusion then look for evidence to support it, ignoring everything else. It's a form of intellectual incapacity.

[IC1967]

The poll you refer to was by Yougov and is out of date. You also need to factor in that these polls have a margin of error of 3-4%. The poll you refer to could quite easily have shown the parties neck and neck if you allow for this margin of error. I prefer to see what is happening across a range of polls to get an accurate idea of people's voting intentions. To my way of looking at it, Labour appears to have lost a lot of support lately. My impression is that the parties are neck and neck and with 12 months to go the Tories will pull ahead considerably. No opposition has ever won an election with one year to go when they are neck and neck with the government.

Anyway here are the latest up to date polls (one of them by Yougov).

YouGov/Sun – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%
Populus – CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%
Ashcroft – CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%
ICM/Guardian – CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 15%

Game, set and match.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It's looking better for the blues that's for sure. I personally still think it's the milliband effect and lack of unique policies.

The tories are doing ok and not really hurting the masses if Imo playing it a little safe.  Labour aren't offering much alternative though and on that strategy I don't see how they'll win - they need to be different and they're not massively.

UKIP I can see actually hurting labour. Their views are more likely matched by your more left wing tradesman type. Not many of them are tory voters I'd suggest.  I can see UKIP despite what's said actually damaging labour as they appeal more to the working class.

Unfortunately I can't vote - downside of moving too close to election day!

[The Red Baron]

I saw Miliband on Breakfast TV this morning. Even though his party are fighting elections to the European Parliament he had nothing to say about Europe. For all their faults, the Tories and Lib Dems have at least included Europe in their campaigns.

Labour's strategy, such as it is, seems to be to appeal to its core vote and hope that will be enough to deliver a majority in 2015. I doubt it will and for that reason I forecast another Hung Parliament.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here we go again Mick. You get onto the subject of facts and you make yourself look a right dick.

There have been 5 General Elections since the end of WWII in which the Opposition won a majority. In 2 of those (1951, 1979) the poll nearest to 12 months before the Election had Labour and the Tories at neck and neck, allowing for margin of error (October 1950 - Labour 2.5% ahead of Tories - Tories won. May 1978, Labour and Tories level, Tories won).

So, when you say "No opposition has ever won an election with one year to go when they are neck and neck with the government."

What you really mean is "No opposition has ever won an election with one year to go when they are neck and neck with the government. Except twice in the last 5 times, where they have."

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's looking better for the blues that's for sure. I personally still think it's the milliband effect and lack of unique policies.

The tories are doing ok and not really hurting the masses if Imo playing it a little safe.  Labour aren't offering much alternative though and on that strategy I don't see how they'll win - they need to be different and they're not massively.

BFYP

It's difficult to say that the Tories are doing OK, or that it's looking better for them. Their polling figures are at just the same level that they have been for the past 2 and a quarter years, barring a brief drop and rise last spring when UKIP surged then fell again.

What has happened recently is that UKIP have taken vote intention off Labour in the polls and as we approach the council and Euro elections, the Greens have also taken a couple of percent off Labour. The majority of those will go back to Labour over the next 12 months. What is emphatically NOT happening, is Labour support bleeding away to the Tories. That is what has been unique about this Parliament - there has been almost no churn between the two major parties. It's as though there is a block of voters who are saying that they will never vote Tory, no matter what (but are switching from LD, to Lab, then to UKIP or Green) and a block that are saying that they will never vote Labour (but are switching between UKIP and Tory). But there almost no sign whatsoever of Labour down = Tory up or vice versa. (Arguably, maybe, possibly, there were a couple of percent who moved from Tory-to-Lab after the omnishambles Budget in March 2012, but that is chickenfeed compared to the big swings that usually happen.) That is unprecedented in my lifetime. In every other Parliament, there has been a chunk of 10-15% of swing voters who move between the two main parties throughout the duration of the Parliament.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

There's something in that the big two aren't capturing voters.

I think though that the plus for the tories is that as the sitting government they'll get some benefit as usually happens and I still firmly believe labour are getting it wrong being an anti tory party not a labour party that is just different. A lot of people see straight through that.

Time will tell and every small issue will make a big difference.  I think time will tell, but tories will be more optimistic than before. Having been through cuts, recession etc they're still neck and neck up there - that has to be a positive that not too many expected.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP

There's certainly an issue in the long term decline of support for the two main parties. Back in the 50s and 60s, Lab and Con both used to poll in the mid to high forties even in bad years. The Tories haven't consistently polled above 40% since the mid 80s. Labour has reached that level more often, but has still been 10-15% down on its post War figures for the last 30 years.

It's obscene that we don't have PR in such a situation.

As for Labour's negative approach, it was ever this for oppositions. The old saying is "Oppositions don't win elections: Governments lose them." You'd be hard pushed to ever find a positive Opposition campaign setting out a detailed strategy. Look at the last one. Posters of Dave looking concerned saying "We can't go in like this".

Look at the most brilliant and successful election poster of all time. Maggie's in 79


Genius. And utterly negative. Said nowt about Maggie's policies. Do you think she'd have won in 79 if she'd set out her policies in detail? If she'd said "Our policy is to hammer inflation out of the system and that will require a trebling of unemployment and doubling of interest rates"?

Good luck to any Opposition who tries that approach. Much more productive to snipe and engender a feeling that "we can't go on like this."

Shit int it? But it's us to blame, not the politicians.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Genius. And utterly negative. Said nowt about Maggie's policies. Do you think she'd have won in 79 if she'd set out her policies in detail? If she'd said "Our policy is to hammer inflation out of the system and that will require a trebling of unemployment and doubling of interest rates"?

If she had, it might have attracted her policies to those who felt inflation had to be controlled whatever the cost. The only problem, though, was that it didn't work. We had three million unemployed and high interest rates for ten years and inflation was just as high when she got knifed in the back as it was when she entered Number Ten.

[IC1967]

Interestingly the better news for the Tories coincides with the improvement in the economy starting a year ago. Then Cameron's rating was -15 and it is now +2. Osbourne was on -25 and is now on +5 and Milliband was on -22 and is now on -25 his lowest rating. George and Dave's rating should continue to improve with the economy and Milliband's will continue to get worse. This spells electoral disaster for Labour.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

But the Tory VI has barely budged in two years. It was averaging 33-34% in April 2012. It briefly dipped to 30-32% in winter 12/13, then lifted back to 33-34% by spring 13 and it's stayed there since.

In the last 26 months since the 2012 Budget, there have been something like 500 You Gov polls. Apart from the brief dip of a few weeks in early 2013, the Tory VI has only once been below 30 and only 3 times above 35.

Millpond smooth levels.

Whatever is happening in the polls, it is emphatically not an increase in Tory support.

[IC1967]

It is undeniable that UKIP have taken some Tory support. Despite this the Tory support has remained consistent and has gone up recently. When the general election comes around a lot of this Tory support that UKIP is currently enjoying will flood back to the Tories. Hence electoral disaster for Labour.

[wilts rover]

It is undeniable that UKIP have taken some Tory support. Despite this the Tory support has remained consistent and has gone up recently. When the general election comes around a lot of this Tory support that UKIP is currently enjoying will flood back to the Tories. Hence electoral disaster for Labour.

I am just trying to get my head around how something that has been removed can be consistent - does that not break the laws of physics or is it just quantum Mickonomics at work again?

[BillyStubbsTears]

f***ing hell, it's like talking to the wind.

The Tory support has NOT gone up recently. Not as in "not". It's not gone anywhere for 10 months. And even then, the running average flickered up by no more than a percent or two. 

Or maybe I'm wrong. Maybe there's a numerical equivalent of the Micktionary, where numbers staying constant mean they are actually going up?

Anyway in the latest You Gov poll, 14% of the people who voted Tory at the last election now say they support UKIP and 10% who voted Labour say the same.

12 months ago, the figures were roughly 20-23% and 4-5% respectively. A good chunk of the Tory losses already went back, in early summer last year. That was the last time there was any movement in Tory VI. What's happened over the past year is that Labour supporters have been dallying with UKIP. Those two facts pretty much entirely sum up why the polls have closed over the past year, with the Greens pulling a few off Lab (as they sometimes do in Euro elections) explaing the recent drop in Lab support.

Now, the Tories have already got their low hanging fruit back from UKIP. You can be as sure as eggs are eggs that Labour will do the same as we run up to the election.

[IC1967]

Look it's very simple. Despite the Tories losing a lot of support to UKIP their  polling results have improved. So their polling results have remained better than consistent. 12 months ago the Tories were averaging below 30%. They are now around the 34% mark. They've managed to increase their support despite losing people to UKIP. So this means they have attracted new support. This is because the economy has improved.

When the general election comes around due to the Tories offering a referendum most of UKIP Tories will come flooding back. Some of the UKIP Labour supporters will also vote Tory because they also feel strongly about Europe and want a referendum.

Labour have shot themselves in the foot big time by refusing a referendum. All things considered it's obvious that the Tories will hammer Labour at the general election.

[IC1967]

I've decided to take it upon myself to keep you up to date with the demise of Labour. I will use this thread to keep you all abreast of what the latest polls are saying and what it means for the next parliament if the latest polls accurately predicted the outcome of the next general election. The latest YouGov poll dated 13.4.14 shows the following:

Conservative 34%
Labour 34%
LibDems 8%
UKIP 15%

Based on an average of recent polls this predicts a Labour majority of 14. This should be enough to make any democrat's piss boil. Not only do Labour get a load of MP's from a foreign country (Scotland) they also get far more seats in England due to the vagaries of the first past the post system than their percentage of the electorate warrant.

Despite this the trend is pointing to a Tory majority come polling day.

There's been more good news for the government today. Unemployment is now down to 6.8%. The main point to take from this is that in the last quarter, 283,000 more people found work, which was the largest quarterly increase since records began in 1971.

News like this will soon translate into more Tory votes.

[The Red Baron]

There's a link here:

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/14/update-labour-and-conservative-tied/

I guess the chances of the Tories increasing their share from around 34% depends on how much they can eat into the 15% figure for UKIP. The Lib Dems look like they've been squeezed as far as they will go, and if anything the only way for them will be up.

There is something seriously wrong with the electoral system though. If those figures were replicated at a GE UKIP would probably have no seats at all and the Lib Dems would still have around 20-30. After the next GE there needs to a proper debate on PR- and I don't mean that Alternative Vote rubbish we voted on recently.