Looking grim for Labour

[IC1967]

There is something seriously wrong with the electoral system though. If those figures were replicated at a GE UKIP would probably have no seats at all and the Lib Dems would still have around 20-30. After the next GE there needs to a proper debate on PR- and I don't mean that Alternative Vote rubbish we voted on recently.

Agreed. It makes my piss boil that in a Conservative country (England), Labour have a disproportionate number of seats relating to their support. The first past the post system is totally discredited. Based on the following support, (an average of all recent polls) this is what it means in terms of seats:

Tories     33% 269
Labour    35% 332
LibDems  9%  22
UKIP       14% 0

What a joke. The only good news in all of this, is that UKIP supporters will think long and hard about wasting their vote voting for UKIP. The Tories should benefit.

[The Red Baron]

What a joke. The only good news in all of this, is that UKIP supporters will think long and hard about wasting their vote voting for UKIP. The Tories should benefit.

While I think the 15% in terms of GE voting intentions may represent a high water mark for UKIP, I'm not sure how many UKIP supporters can be persuaded to vote Tory. A lot of them do not trust Cameron on Europe, especially after his failure to deliver on his "cast iron" pledge over the Lisbon Treaty. He's also made it pretty clear that as Prime Minister he'll campaign for a vote to stay IN, even though the "concessions" he could wring from the EU would probably not amount to much.

I still fancy a Hung Parliament in 2015. The real game-changer though could be the result of the Scottish Independence referendum.

[IC1967]

Yes the Scotch hopefully will vote for independence. Brown, Darling and Bliar have done immense damage to England and the sooner the Scotch are kept out of English affairs the better. That would do serious damage to Labour. I think a hung parliament is very possible. The Tories would need to have a difference of 11% over Labour to form a majority government. That is a big ask but one that I think is possible. If only we had a fairer system the Tories would easily win.

For example in the recent scenario I gave, if we had proportional representation the makeup of the government would be as follows:

Tories     33% 208
Labour   35% 221
LibDems 9%   57
UKIP      14% 88
Others    9%  57

We'd pretty much always end up with a hung parliament but thats the way its going now anyway under first past the post. Unfortunately first past the post disenfranchises the majority of the population. Its only really worth voting in marginal seats. For example voting Tory in Doncaster is a complete waste of time so many (including myself) don't bother voting. This is not good for democracy. I take a great interest in politics and if someone like me doesn't feel like its worth voting then the system must be well and truly broken.

A hung parliament throws up an interesting question. Does the party with the most MP's get to form the government or does the party with the highest percentage of the vote get to form the government? It is quite possible that Labour could have the most MP's but with a smaller percentage of the vote than the Tories. I'd be all for the party with the highest percentage being given the first chance at forming a government. The parties need to make it clear what the procedure will be in such a situation. For example if they decided to do it my way then a vote for the Tories wouldn't be wasted in places like Doncaster as it would count in the event of a hung parliament if Labour had the most MP's with a lower percentage of the vote than the Tories. I would vote if this was decided as the way forward as would many other disenfranchised voters.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

But I didn't think you lived in Doncaster?  Even so we should all vote whatever.  I'm actually now able to visit Doncaster next week so will now vote.  Is it still the first and second choice system for euros? If so that helps UKIP a lot I expect.

[The Red Baron]

But I didn't think you lived in Doncaster?  Even so we should all vote whatever.  I'm actually now able to visit Doncaster next week so will now vote.  Is it still the first and second choice system for euros? If so that helps UKIP a lot I expect.

I have to say I thought it was a 1, 2, 3 vote but I had my ballot paper for my postal vote yesterday and I could only vote in the usual way- X for my first preference only. I think the seats are allocated based on the number of votes given to each party, so it is a kind of PR, but not a proper kind.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There is something seriously wrong with the electoral system though. If those figures were replicated at a GE UKIP would probably have no seats at all and the Lib Dems would still have around 20-30. After the next GE there needs to a proper debate on PR- and I don't mean that Alternative Vote rubbish we voted on recently.

Agreed. It makes my piss boil that in a Conservative country (England), Labour have a disproportionate number of seats relating to their support. The first past the post system is totally discredited. Based on the following support, (an average of all recent polls) this is what it means in terms of seats:

Tories     33% 269
Labour    35% 332
LibDems  9%  22
UKIP       14% 0

What a joke. The only good news in all of this, is that UKIP supporters will think long and hard about wasting their vote voting for UKIP. The Tories should benefit.

You and facts again, eh Mick? That adds up to 623 MPs. But there are only 533 in England.

[IC1967]

You take pedantry to a new level.

[IC1967]

Continuing the recent trend IPSOS Mori poll yesterday shows Labour support down 3% on a month ago with no change for the Tories.

[RobTheRover]

You take pedantry to a new level.

Erm.... pedantry isn't pointing out facts.  Its called validation.

[IC1967]

He knows that the figures I posted are for the UK parliament. As does everyone else who isn't a pedant.

[BillyStubbsTears]

See, in that case Mick, I don't understand why you prefaced those figures with a rant about England being a conservative country. What on earth does your opinion of the moral or political bias of the English have to do with the number of seats that each party gets in the UK?

Just out of interest, do you have any evidence that Labour gets a disproportionate share of seats in England, compared to its vote share?

[IC1967]

Im sure you already know and are just asking for the sake of it. However there are others out there that need educating so here goes.

There are many reasons why Labour gets more seats than it should. The main one being out of date boundaries and unequal seat sizes. Any fool knows that in general, Labour seats have fewer voters and Tory seats have more voters. For decades the population in the industrial North (Labour stronghold) has been falling and it has been growing in the South (Tory stronghold).

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It would be nice if someone could come up with a better polling solution. The currenttmmd seems outdated now.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'll take that as (yet) another "no" then Mick. It's really much easier to simply say "no" than to write a whole splurge of what every fool is supposed to know.

See, here's a funny thing Mick. It's about England, since you brought up the "fact" that England is a conservative country.

In the 2010 General Election, the Tory party could scarcely have written the script better if they'd tried. They faced a tired Govt which had lost a hell of a lot of support and trust over Iraq. They faced a bumbling, gaffe-prone, non-photogenic Prime Minister. The Election was held in the midlle of what was to become the longest Depression since Prince Albert was alive, and the public blamed the Govt for much of it.

Perfect electoral territory.

In England, 25.03 million votes were cast. 9.89million of them were for the Tories(39.5%), 7.0million for Labour(28.1%).

So, in the most perfect conditions that any political strategist could ever dream of, the Tory party managed to get fewer than 2 votes in 5 in the "conservative" England.

But here's another thing. Every fool knows that Labour gets an unfair advantage from the way that the constituencies are set up. Well aye. In England, the Tories got 1 MP for every 33,400 votes. Labour got 1MP for every 36,827 votes.

[IC1967]

You talk a load of rubbish. Anyone listening to you would think the way things are set up benefits the Tories. Unbelievable cods wallop. If Labour leads in the vote they gain an overall majority. The Tories depending on how the LibDems do would need around a 10% lead to gain an overall majority. If both parties had the same share of the vote then Labour would have many more MPs. Fact.

[IC1967]

The latest average of all recent polls (last month) shows the following:

Labour 34% 325 seats
Tories 33% 274 seats (a lot less seats than a 1% difference should warrant, putting the lie to the propaganda BST is peddling)
Libs 9% 23 seats
Others 24% 28 seats

So now we are into hung parliament territory with Labour short by 1.

[ravenrover]

Yes the Scotch hopefully will vote for independence. Brown, Darling and Bliar have done immense damage to England and the sooner the Scotch are kept out of English affairs the better. That would do serious damage to Labour. I think a hung parliament is very possible. The Tories would need to have a difference of 11% over Labour to form a majority government. That is a big ask but one that I think is possible. If only we had a fairer system the Tories would easily win.

For example in the recent scenario I gave, if we had proportional representation the makeup of the government would be as follows:

Tories     33% 208
Labour   35% 221
LibDems 9%   57
UKIP      14% 88
Others    9%  57

We'd pretty much always end up with a hung parliament but thats the way its going now anyway under first past the post. Unfortunately first past the post disenfranchises the majority of the population. Its only really worth voting in marginal seats. For example voting Tory in Doncaster is a complete waste of time so many (including myself) don't bother voting. This is not good for democracy. I take a great interest in politics and if someone like me doesn't feel like its worth voting then the system must be well and truly broken.

A hung parliament throws up an interesting question. Does the party with the most MP's get to form the government or does the party with the highest percentage of the vote get to form the government? It is quite possible that Labour could have the most MP's but with a smaller percentage of the vote than the Tories. I'd be all for the party with the highest percentage being given the first chance at forming a government. The parties need to make it clear what the procedure will be in such a situation. For example if they decided to do it my way then a vote for the Tories wouldn't be wasted in places like Doncaster as it would count in the event of a hung parliament if Labour had the most MP's with a lower percentage of the vote than the Tories. I would vote if this was decided as the way forward as would many other disenfranchised voters.

I didn't think even the SCOTS would give a vote to a liquid in a bottle, but of course this must be just one of your deliberate errors

[IC1967]

Latest update and its more bad news for Labour. ComRes have done a poll in the 40 most marginal seats. The results show that none of them would change hands. If thats the best Labour can do with nearly a year to go to the election then they've got no chance of winning.

[River Don]

The font of all Tory wisdom on polling, Lord Ashcroft, predicts a Labour victory at the GE.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10854513/Lord-Ashcroft-poll-Labour-on-course-to-win-general-election.html

[BillyStubbsTears]

In fairness RD, that poll has stretched from end March to early May. I suspect some of the earlier results might slightly overestimate Lab support.

And then there's the other thing. Ashcroft, the billionaire tax-dodging non-dom is using this polling to decide how best to target several million quids worth of his money on helping Tory candidates at the next Election. Last time round he poured money into a few dozen key marginals. He'll be doing the same over the next 12 months.

Great for democracy int it?

[RobTheRover]

Jo Miller has just returned the Euro vote result for Doncaster.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I see the poll updates have dried up. How strange...

[IC1967]

I'm letting the dust settle after the council and European elections before I post anymore poll updates. I think we need to get the Newark by election out of the way as well before things return to normal.

[IC1967]

Unemployment down to 6.6%. 2 million new private sector jobs created since the coalition came to power. It was noticeable that Mr. Milliband didn't want to talk about this at PMQ's today. I wonder why.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27791749

[IC1967]

Right, the dust has settled after the recent elections and the latest Populus poll shows the following:

Tories 35%
Labour 36%
LibDems 9%
UKIP 14%

Not good enough Mr. Milliband with nearly a year of nothing but good news to come from the coalition.

[IC1967]

More bad news for Labour. There has been a surge in passport applications (up 300,000 on last year). The reason? People are now feeling a lot more confident about the economy and are booking a lot more holidays abroad.

[River Don]

Wages rises have fallen behind inflation again though.

Good employment stats. It seems we're building a low skill, low wage, low productivity economy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/10891589/UK-unemployment-falls-to-five-year-low-but-wage-growth-slows.html

[IC1967]

It's going to take a long time to put right the damage Labour did on productivity and low wages. Allowing so many immigrants in is mainly to blame.

[IC1967]

The Tories have surged into the lead. Many UKIP supporters are realising we need to get the Tories back in to get a referendum as I knew they would. Get in.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/14/ukip-guardian-icm-poll-tories-labour-nigel-farage

[IC1967]

More bad news for Labour. Unemployment continuing its dramatic fall. We've never had as many jobs.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28325361

More bad news for Labour's cost of living baloney. Wages growth outpacing inflation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27406084