The magic figure to stay up.

[RobTheRover]

In each of the seasons we've been in the Championship, 48 points would have been enough to keep a team up.

2010/11 3rd bottom and relegated - Preston 42pts
2009/10 3rd bottom and relegated - Sheffield Wednesday 47pts
2008/09 3rd bottom and relegated - Norwich City 46pts

We are on 22pts with 21 games remaining, so....

9 Wins, or
8 wins and 2 draws, or
7 wins and 5 draws, or
6 wins and 8 draws....

..keeps us up.

Two questions.

1) is 48 points going to be enough this season?
2) can we get to that number?

To me there are currently 6 teams fighting for 3 places.  History tells us that at least one of them will be halfway up the league when the final shakedown happens and that at least one who looks safe as houses will get dragged in.  History also tells us that from the teams in the bottom three on February 1st usually 2 of the 3 go down.

Losing Billy will be a blow, but it will also be a test of the mettle of the rest of the team.  Time to step up to the plate, chaps.

[wilts rover]

I was speaking about this with Crowle Rover the other day. The teams around us are all in a bit of form and I think it will be very tight this year IMO we wil need 52 points, 10 more wins.

Can we get to that number, thats down to DS and the players, look at it this way - 10 more Barnsley's!

[DearneValleyRover]

It may also depend on any clubs going into administration. Birmingham are in real trouble.

[RobTheRover]

11 of the remaining 21 games are at home, so if we can carry the good home league form into next saturday's game......  

And for the first time in living memory (well, almost), we finish the season at home.... and whats more, against a potential relegation rival in Ipswich.  If it all comes down to that game can you imagine the atmosphere?  The season in 90 minutes.

[RobTheRover]

It may also depend on any clubs going into administration. Birmingham are in real trouble.

Good point.  Didnt Portsmouth look a bit iffy a few weeks ago too?

[DearneValleyRover]

I think your right Rob, Ipswich will be right down there come the last game. Just to promote that thought we have gained more poInts under Deano than the fat man has.

[Chris Black come back]

Equally important are our games against Bristol City (21 January), Forest (6 March), Millwall (20 March) and the final week - Coventry (21 April) and Ipswich (28 April).

If we have half a chance going in to that final week then I will be happy.

[RobTheRover]

Exactly, we need to take maximum points in these games, I reckon.  Keep our rivals down there and add to our points at their expense.

[benaldo]

I suppose it also matters how much damage we inflict on our closest rivals too doesn't it?

I still think Rovers will stay up. I'm more worried at the moment about the noises JR is making regarding leaving. Without him, god only knows what will happen.

ps As a little titbit of info that I thought some might, or might not, be interested in. Mr Bramhall was at the match on Saturday. Perhaps this is signalling some renewed interest? I can only hope that a vsc box \"guest\" didn't have something to say to him too....

What's the phrase?...... Don't piss on your chips?

[BigH]

Six home wins. Two wins and three draws away.

[Chris Black come back]

We currently have the princely sum of 22 points under our belt. Under Saunders we have accrued 21 points from 18 games at a rate of 1.16 points a game.

We have 21 game left to play. If we carry on accumulating points at the same rate then we should have an additional 24.5 points, which added to our current haul of 22 points would give us a notional total of 46.5 points and would most likely see us down.

Factors to bear in mind though:

1. Can we expect to keep winning games without a goal scorer of Billy's calibre?
2. Can we stay up on 46.5 points if we manage to win all our games against the teams in trouble?
3. There are an amazing SEVEN games in March. Have we got a squad which can cope?
4. Will the team improve the longer that Saunders is in charge?
5. Will McKay come up with any further quality signings?

[benaldo]

We currently have the princely sum of 22 points under our belt. Under Saunders we have accrued 21 points from 18 games at a rate of 1.16 points a game.

We have 21 game left to play. If we carry on accumulating points at the same rate then we should have an additional 24.5 points, which added to our current haul of 22 points would give us a notional total of 46.5 points and would most likely see us down.

Factors to bear in mind though:

1. Can we expect to keep winning games without a goal scorer of Billy's calibre?
2. Can we stay up on 46.5 points if we manage to win all our games against the teams in trouble?
3. There are an amazing SEVEN games in March. Have we got a squad which can cope?
4. Will the team improve the longer that Saunders is in charge?
5. Will McKay come up with any further quality signings?

1) Good question. I like to think perhaps others will step up to the plate. He's not god after all is he?
2) Who knows?
3) Yes. The injured will be much better by then.
4) Has to, it's improving all the time, the evidence is there.
5) Yes...unless more people are allowed to \"speak their minds to him without swearing\" in the vsc box while he is with his family.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I was speaking about this with Crowle Rover the other day. The teams around us are all in a bit of form and I think it will be very tight this year IMO we wil need 52 points, 10 more wins.

Can we get to that number, thats down to DS and the players, look at it this way - 10 more Barnsley's!

The bottom 4 in the current form table (last 8 matches) are Milwall, Ipswich, Coventry and Forest.

[Superspy]

Going back to the original question, I think it's going to be 47-49 points to stay up again this season based on the past few years.

At 25 games the current 21st placed team is on 24 points.

At the same point in the previous seasons:

10/11 25 points
09/10 24 points
08/09 21 points

[Spud]

Benaldo wrote;

I'm more worried at the moment about the noises JR is making regarding leaving. Without him, god only knows what will happen.



What noises Benny? (genuine question, have not heard/read owt by the man myself)

[VikingJames]

Benaldo wrote;

I'm more worried at the moment about the noises JR is making regarding leaving. Without him, god only knows what will happen.



What noises Benny? (genuine question, have not heard/read owt by the man myself)

In the Free Press, he said he considered his position at times last season. Not sure if that's what Benaldo meant.

[not on facebook]

iam getting to point where i think rovers will stay up depending
on their home results as i have no confidence on our away form
to pick up the viatal pts.

so saying above 2 or 3 home defeats i guess will see rovers going down.

just keep that home form and that will keep us up.

[Spud]

Benaldo wrote;

I'm more worried at the moment about the noises JR is making regarding leaving. Without him, god only knows what will happen.



What noises Benny? (genuine question, have not heard/read owt by the man myself)

In the Free Press, he said he considered his position at times last season. Not sure if that's what Benaldo meant.

Ok cheers.
Must be tough at the minute for him, a lot seem to forget that he is a fan himself. Don`t think he`d go though, for that very reason.

[streatham dave]

Leicester went down with 52 points a few years ago which was the highest total to go down. I guess that's what we need to beat to be certain.