Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: Sammy Chung was King on February 08, 2016, 12:23:59 am
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Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
Anyway here's what i see us getting from the games left-
SHEFF UTD(H)-DRAW
Barnsley(a)-WIN
MILLWALL(H)-LOSE
swindon(a)-LOSE
SHREWSBURY(H)-WIN
Bradford(a)-LOSE
PETERBOROUGH(H)-LOSE
Colchester(a)-WIN
BLACKPOOL(H)-DRAW
Rochdale(a)-WIN
Bury(a)-DRAW
WIGAN(H)-LOSE
Chesterfield(a)-DRAW
COVENTRY(H)-LOSE
Crewe(a)-WIN
Scunthorpe(a)-DRAW
BURTON(H)-DRAW
So that would be 16 points out of a possible 51 points.***I must have been tired 21 points out of 51.
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I like your optimism ;) :evil:
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Barnsley have just won their 7th game on the bounce!
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16 points from 17 games
Crackers
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I see us getting about 24 points starting with 3 on Saturday.
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Oh dear. I wouldn't mind buying at 16 points.
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I make it 21 points, which is probably not far off what we'll end up with.
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16 points from 17 games
Crackers
Why crackers? Although I make it adding up to 21.
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It is 21.
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Crikey only 1 more Home win to look forward to , happy day's :suicide:
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Crikey only 1 more Home win to look forward to , happy day's :suicide:
But our home form is wretched and we are playing some teams with excellent away records.
I think we'll win two or three of the home games, but we could win four at least away.
I actually think it's a pretty futile exercise predicting individual results other than the next game. However I think 21 points is a reasonable estimate of what is possible.
Hope it isn't as low as 16, because we could be in for an arse-nipping end to the season.
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I'm going for 28 points
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when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
It could get worse if survivals at stake , like at Leicester , watching another team celebrate Promotion after relegating us.
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41-45 for me
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when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
It could get worse if survivals at stake , like at Leicester , watching another team celebrate Promotion after relegating us.
Sorry to be pedantic but Leicester didn't relegate us. Not getting enough points over 46 games did for us.
I believe the play offs are well out of our reach (unless we have a drastic winning streak soon), but I am not worried about a relegation battle, not yet.
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Of course it s crackers
Fergie has been in charge for 17 games and we've got 25 points, even though we've had a few poor runs under him
Yet for the next 17 games were predicting were going to do considerably worse?
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41-45 for me
Is that from the remaining games or the season total?
If the former then, sir, you are the greatest optimist in Christendom and I like a pint of what you're drinking!
If the latter, time to set the Sat Nav for Accrington and Morecambe.
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Of course it s crackers
Fergie has been in charge for 17 games and we've got 25 points, even though we've had a few poor runs under him
Yet for the next 17 games were predicting were going to do considerably worse?
I repeat my question - why crackers? The teams we play are by and large better than what we've faced at home so far.
We've played all the bottom four at home and we've played two of them away as well. We have still to play four of the current top six at home.
I think 16 points is on the low side and actually Sammy's game by game analysis gives us 21.
To get to 25 points from the next 17 games would actually require us to improve our performance levels, and I don't see much likelihood of that happening. 20-21 is a pretty good shout.
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By the same token you could say that the teams we face away are easier fixtures than what we've faced so far
Remember also ferguson had games at the beginning where we got hammered which were before he sorted them out
Even with no improvement on the next 17 games we would only just miss out on the playoffs by 4 or 5 points
So a slight improvement could get us close
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We've already played all of the top 9 away from home, and 4 of them we've already played twice
So I can't see how you can suggest our remaining fixtures are tougher
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Unfortunately I don't really expect us to beat any of the top nine home or away. The only top nine side we've beaten is Southend. Of the others, the best we've done is drawn.
I do think the Blunts might be an exception because of their poor form and our returnees. But based on results you'd go draw.
As I said earlier, I think we'll win 2-3 at home and 3-4 away. That will give us something between 15 and 21 points. Throw in a few draws and we could get to around 25-26 from the remaining games. Or we could dip below my forecast and gain somewhere around 18-20.
21 is IMO a pretty good estimate.
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Therefore if you're suggesting we could manage 25-26 points why should we forget about the playoffs?
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Crikey only 1 more Home win to look forward to , happy day's :suicide:
If it is going to be that bad i can see only around 3000 home fans in for the last game.
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Therefore if you're suggesting we could manage 25-26 points why should we forget about the playoffs?
25-26 points sees us finish on 61-62. Nowhere near enough. Need to add on at least another 10 if not 14 points to that.
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Therefore if you're suggesting we could manage 25-26 points why should we forget about the playoffs?
That's a top end estimate. 62 will be nowhere near enough.
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Just a thread to illustrate certain mind sets really!
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Therefore if you're suggesting we could manage 25-26 points why should we forget about the playoffs?
25-26 points sees us finish on 61-62. Nowhere near enough. Need to add on at least another 10 if not 14 points to that.
We won't need 76 points to get in the playoffs last season was 69,
So if we maintain our form under ferguson we will reach 61 points, a slight improvement and we will be in the brink of the playoffs
I'm not suggesting it's going to happen but all this talk of putting it to bed and moving on is just nonsense
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Dickos
69 points last season was one of the lowest ever tallies for the play-offs. It won't be that this year. It's shaping up to be something like the usual mid-70s required to make 6th place.
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I don't see how you can come to that conclusion Billy
After 30 games last season sheff United were 5th with 49 points this season after 30 games Coventry are 5th with 49 points
6th place has 2 points difference,
After 32 games Chesterfield were in the bottom half, they made the playoffs, that's why it's a nonsense to right it off yet
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Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
I hope to Christ when it comes to that game they don't 'have something to play for' SCwK
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Therefore if you're suggesting we could manage 25-26 points why should we forget about the playoffs?
25-26 points sees us finish on 61-62. Nowhere near enough. Need to add on at least another 10 if not 14 points to that.
We won't need 76 points to get in the playoffs last season was 69,
So if we maintain our form under ferguson we will reach 61 points, a slight improvement and we will be in the brink of the playoffs
I'm not suggesting it's going to happen but all this talk of putting it to bed and moving on is just nonsense
I will not write the play offs off, until mathematically impossible. I am an optimist!
I think 6th place will need 74-75 points. It is not impossible but I do think it is unlikely.
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Any side that finishes 6th with 75 points will need to go on a great run and will therefore deserve it
I think 70 will get u in this year
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Dickos
Simple. On this day last year, the equal fifth best side in terms of points per game (Sheff Utd & Chesterfield) had a PPG that equated to 69 points over a season. The ones around them were as follows
5th=: 69
5th=: 69
7th: 67
8th: 66
9th: 65
10th: 62
ALL the sides fighting for the last couple of play-off positions were in unexeptional season-long form. It was no surprise that none of them kicked on to better things.
This season, tonight, the numbers are like this.
5th=: 75
5th=: 75
5th=: 75
8th: 70
9th=: 67
9th=: 67
It's not just the sides in 5th/6th place. It's ALL the teams in the mix that are doing significantly better than last year. It is pretty much inconceivable that out of that lot, a couple a least won't end up getting a points tally in the mid-70s. There is next to no chance that the target for 6th place will be anywhere near as low as last season.
By the way, as far as I can see, the last time Chesterfield were in the bottom half was mid-Dec. Yes, they lost 4 on the bounce around this time of tear, but they never dropped lower than 10th. And even at the end of that run, they were still on a season-long PPG which equates to 60 points over the season. Our equivalent figure at the moment is 57 points. So, in a lower points-target league than we are in this year, they were doing significantly better than we currently are.
I'm an inveterate optimist, but the chance of us making the play-offs is vanishingly small.
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Chesterfield were in 12th position in the last week of March, some 6/7 weeks ahead of where we are now, they then went on a great run getting 18 points from 9 games.
On the 10th March we were in the playoffs, and look where we finished
Alls I'm saying is you can't say what's going to happen at the end of the season in the first week of February
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Dickos.
Yes. You're right, they did drop to 12th. My apologies. Mis-read the tables.
That was because they didn't play on the 24th and all the teams around them did. The Saturday before that, they were 10th. The Saturday after that, they were 9th. That 12th place was a bit of an outlier.
But anyway, even accepting that, in the last week of March, Chesterfield, temporarily in 12th place, were just 5 points off the play-offs with a match in hand.
Because last year, there was a compressed middle with an exceptionally poor performance required to hit 6th place.
Last year it wasn't a surprise that a team came through late and (positions wise) rose rapidly. Because there was bugger all between a set of middling sides.
This year is totally different. You'll need 73-77 points to hit 6th place[1]. And we won't get anywhere remotely close to that.
[1] I can't say that definitively, of course. But there is a tiny statistical chance of the target being as low as last season. And even to hit last season's target we'd need 33 points from 17 games. Which is not going to happen with this defence.
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Do any of these take into account that some teams in these places may have to play each other? Which will bring the points down as they both cant win.
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But there is a tiny statistical chance of the target being as low as last season. And even to hit last season's target we'd need 33 points from 17 games. Which is not going to happen with this defence.
Given your lack of luck with predictions the smart Rovers fan is now lumping on us to go up.
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Well I predicted that you or your mate would pop up with the inevitable, so that's me one-up tonight.
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Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
I hope to Christ when it comes to that game they don't 'have something to play for' SCwK
Yes i see where you are going with that, relegation in tiny letters. I don't see that happening, and i wouldn't see my predictions as likely, have you seen how well i do every week?, joint rock bottom.
I just looked at each game without weighing up how many we got until the end, taking each game trying to not predict as a supporter. I see us getting around 57 points, it wouldn't surprise me if Ferguson can't maintain the points he has previously.
We will be playing teams who have either promotion hopes or relegation threat at times, i really hope we do a lot better than this, but it's better for me to predict defeat then i get the opposite, a coincidence i know but it seems that way.
The manager won't except that he can't get them promoted this year publicly, but i suspect he knows we would need a major improvement throughout the team to be challenging.
We don't score enough goals to give two goal starts away every week, and we keep clean sheets mostly against the poorer teams. Usually i put really optimistic predictions, but as i said i tried to predict as a non supporter.
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Well I predicted that you or your mate would pop up with the inevitable, so that's me one-up tonight.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
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A broken clock is right twice a day.
My 24hr one isn't :P
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Forget the P/Offs, we needed the sort of run the Dingles have put together recently ourselves and Billy has put his finger on quite why that won't happen and that is our leaky defence. We ''gift'' oppo teams that many silly goals it beggars belief. The majority of goals that we have conceded this season haven't been because of fantastic play by our opponents but because of our hesitancy and lack of any credible organisation at the back. No -one talks to each other , basic skills are lacking or perhaps the players who have that ability.
We will be extremely lucky to get near 60 points and I would take that in a heartbeat if it was offered. Time to re-group and let DF get these lads properly prepared for the next campaign.
Finally that's me being at my most optimistic or should I say realistic.
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Why would we be extremely lucky to her anywhere near 60 points?
Under ferguson we've got 25 points from 17 games and that includes no win in our last 4 and losing 2 of his first 3 games
So we've been far from brilliant in these 17 games, on paper we now have an easier 17 games and even if we only match the previous 17 we will end up with 61 points,
Until the recent injuries of tyson butler etc we were averaging just under 2 points a game
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When did DF take over officially? I thought it was Peterborough away? Maybe wrong. That would mean 22 points from 16 games.
Either way, whichever it is, we've won 9 games this season out of 29. There would have to be a Barnsleyesque upturn I'm form for us to get near the play offs.
If the Dingles can do it................
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Ferguson's first game was away at Shrewsbury, which we won 2-1.
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Yes and then we lost the next 2
You can't use the form before ferguson came he can't do anything about that,
Up until the last 4 games we've been good under him,
If we do slightly better over his next 17 games I think we will come close to the playoffs, just my opinion
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2 points per game on average from now will give us a total of 70 points. I don't think that is enough so I agree with mrfrostsdad that we would need a long winning streak to get there. Not impossible, but unlikely.
After the season so far I would be happy with mid-60s points and a top half finish, but back in the form we had pre-Gillingham.
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2 points a game would make us have an exciting end to the season though cause I think we will get close if we manage that
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50/1 with Skybet for a top 6 finish if anyone really fancies it
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2 points a game would make us have an exciting end to the season though cause I think we will get close if we manage that
2 points per game would make for a great end to the season as we would be in promotion form ie winning most games. It will bring us closer but IMHO not close enough.
Still, I would rather be competing at that end!
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Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
Anyway here's what i see us getting from the games left-
SHEFF UTD(H)-DRAW
Barnsley(a)-WIN
MILLWALL(H)-LOSE
swindon(a)-LOSE
SHREWSBURY(H)-WIN
Bradford(a)-LOSE
PETERBOROUGH(H)-LOSE
Colchester(a)-WIN
BLACKPOOL(H)-DRAW
Rochdale(a)-WIN
Bury(a)-DRAW
WIGAN(H)-LOSE
Chesterfield(a)-DRAW
COVENTRY(H)-LOSE
Crewe(a)-WIN
Scunthorpe(a)-DRAW
BURTON(H)-DRAW
So that would be 16 points out of a possible 51 points.***I must have been tired 21 points out of 51.
A bad start SCWK , may be 16pts wasn't such a bad estimate. :)
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Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
Anyway here's what i see us getting from the games left-
SHEFF UTD(H)-DRAW
Barnsley(a)-WIN
MILLWALL(H)-LOSE
swindon(a)-LOSE
SHREWSBURY(H)-WIN
Bradford(a)-LOSE
PETERBOROUGH(H)-LOSE
Colchester(a)-WIN
BLACKPOOL(H)-DRAW
Rochdale(a)-WIN
Bury(a)-DRAW
WIGAN(H)-LOSE
Chesterfield(a)-DRAW
COVENTRY(H)-LOSE
Crewe(a)-WIN
Scunthorpe(a)-DRAW
BURTON(H)-DRAW
So that would be 16 points out of a possible 51 points.***I must have been tired 21 points out of 51.
I hope i am wrong. A couple of weeks and our better players who are coming back from injury will be sharper!, is it just me or does Andy Williams look in need of a rest, he's looking very leggy lately?.
A bad start SCWK , may be 21pts wasn't such a bad estimate. :)
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Of course it s crackers
Fergie has been in charge for 17 games and we've got 25 points, even though we've had a few poor runs under him
Yet for the next 17 games were predicting were going to do considerably worse?
Still think it's crackers?
Might be worth pinning this thread so we can look back at the end of the season.
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Yes I think we will get a lot more than 16 points over the remaining games
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Incidentally I did a similar exercise to Sammy on the remaining games. I came up with 5 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats. That gives us 21 points.
Our away form and the opponents we face will save us. Unfortunately I can't see anything coming from the next two games.
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So you think we will only lose 3 games from the last 14?
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Based on who we are playing, yes.
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Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
Anyway here's what i see us getting from the games left-
SHEFF UTD(H)-DRAW ...........LOST
Barnsley(a)-WIN .............LOST
MILLWALL(H)-LOSE
swindon(a)-LOSE
SHREWSBURY(H)-WIN
Bradford(a)-LOSE
PETERBOROUGH(H)-LOSE
Colchester(a)-WIN
BLACKPOOL(H)-DRAW
Rochdale(a)-WIN
Bury(a)-DRAW
WIGAN(H)-LOSE
Chesterfield(a)-DRAW
COVENTRY(H)-LOSE
Crewe(a)-WIN
Scunthorpe(a)-DRAW
BURTON(H)-DRAW
So that would be 16 points out of a possible 51 points.***I must have been tired 21 points out of 51.
Very bad start SCWK , looking at the remaining fixtures 16 pts might be a tad optimistic. :(