For me our players

[IDM]

Therefore if you're suggesting we could manage 25-26 points why should we forget about the playoffs?

25-26 points sees us finish on 61-62.  Nowhere near enough.  Need to add on at least another 10 if not 14 points to that.

We won't need 76 points to get in the playoffs last season was 69,
So if we maintain our form under ferguson we will reach 61 points, a slight improvement and we will be in the brink of the playoffs
I'm not suggesting it's going to happen  but all this talk of putting it to bed and moving on is just nonsense

I will not write the play offs off, until mathematically impossible.  I am an optimist!

I think 6th place will need 74-75 points.  It is not impossible but I do think it is unlikely.

[dickos1]

Any side that finishes 6th with 75 points will need to go on a great run and will therefore deserve it
I think 70 will get u in this year

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dickos

Simple. On this day last year, the equal fifth best side in terms of points per game (Sheff Utd & Chesterfield) had a PPG that equated to 69 points over a season. The ones around them were as follows

5th=: 69
5th=: 69
7th: 67
8th: 66
9th: 65
10th: 62

ALL the sides fighting for the last couple of play-off positions were in unexeptional season-long form. It was no surprise that none of them kicked on to better things.

This season, tonight, the numbers are like this.

5th=: 75
5th=: 75
5th=: 75
8th: 70
9th=: 67
9th=: 67

It's not just the sides in 5th/6th place. It's ALL the teams in the mix that are doing significantly better than last year. It is pretty much inconceivable that out of that lot, a couple a least won't end up getting a points tally in the mid-70s. There is next to no chance that the target for 6th place will be anywhere near as low as last season.

By the way, as far as I can see, the last time Chesterfield were in the bottom half was mid-Dec. Yes, they lost 4 on the bounce around this time of tear, but they never dropped lower than 10th. And even at the end of that run, they were still on a season-long PPG which equates to 60 points over the season. Our equivalent figure at the moment is 57 points. So, in a lower points-target league than we are in this year, they were doing significantly better than we currently are.

I'm an inveterate optimist, but the chance of us making the play-offs is vanishingly small.

[dickos1]

Chesterfield were in 12th position in the last week of March, some 6/7 weeks ahead of where we are now, they then went on a great run getting 18 points from 9 games.
On the 10th March we were in the playoffs, and look where we finished
Alls I'm saying is you can't say what's going to happen at the end of the season in the first week of February

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dickos.

Yes. You're right, they did drop to 12th. My apologies. Mis-read the tables.

That was because they didn't play on the 24th and all the teams around them did. The Saturday before that, they were 10th. The Saturday after that, they were 9th. That 12th place was a bit of an outlier.

But anyway, even accepting that, in the last week of March, Chesterfield, temporarily in 12th place, were just 5 points off the play-offs with a match in hand.

Because last year, there was a compressed middle with an exceptionally poor performance required to hit 6th place.

Last year it wasn't a surprise that a team came through late and (positions wise) rose rapidly. Because there was bugger all between a set of middling sides.

This year is totally different. You'll need 73-77 points to hit 6th place[1]. And we won't get anywhere remotely close to that.

[1] I can't say that definitively, of course. But there is a tiny statistical chance of the target being as low as last season.  And even to hit last season's target we'd need 33 points from 17 games. Which is not going to happen with this defence.

[dknward2]

Do any of these take into account that some teams in these places may have to play each other? Which will bring the points down as they both cant win.

[Sad-Rovers]

But there is a tiny statistical chance of the target being as low as last season.  And even to hit last season's target we'd need 33 points from 17 games. Which is not going to happen with this defence.

Given your lack of luck with predictions the smart Rovers fan is now lumping on us to go up.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well I predicted that you or your mate would pop up with the inevitable, so that's me one-up tonight.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.

I hope to Christ when it comes to that game they don't 'have something to play for' SCwK

Yes i see where you are going with that, relegation in tiny letters. I don't see that happening, and i wouldn't see my predictions as likely, have you seen how well i do every week?, joint rock bottom.
I just looked at each game without weighing up how many we got until the end, taking each game trying to not predict as a supporter. I see us getting around 57 points, it wouldn't surprise me if Ferguson can't maintain the points he has previously.
We will be playing teams who have either promotion hopes or relegation threat at times, i really hope we do a lot better than this, but it's better for me to predict defeat then i get the opposite, a coincidence i know but it seems that way.

The manager won't except that he can't get them promoted this year publicly, but i suspect he knows we would need a major improvement throughout the team to be challenging.
We don't score enough goals to give two goal starts away every week, and we keep clean sheets mostly against the poorer teams. Usually i put really optimistic predictions, but as i said i tried to predict as a  non supporter.

[Sad-Rovers]

Well I predicted that you or your mate would pop up with the inevitable, so that's me one-up tonight.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

[Not Now Kato]

A broken clock is right twice a day.

My 24hr one isn't 

[hoolahoop]

Forget the P/Offs, we needed the sort of run the Dingles have put together recently ourselves and Billy has put his finger on quite why that won't happen and that is our leaky defence. We ''gift'' oppo teams that many silly goals it beggars belief. The majority of goals that we have conceded this season haven't been because of fantastic play by our opponents but because of our hesitancy and lack of any credible organisation at the back. No -one talks to each other , basic skills are lacking or perhaps the players who have that ability.

We will be extremely lucky to get near 60 points and I would take that in a heartbeat if it was offered.   Time to re-group and let DF get these lads properly prepared for the next campaign.

Finally that's me being at my most optimistic or should I say realistic.

[dickos1]

Why would we be extremely lucky to her anywhere near 60 points?
Under ferguson we've got 25 points from 17 games and that includes no win in our last 4 and losing 2 of his first 3 games
So we've been far from brilliant in these 17 games,  on paper we now have an easier 17 games and even if we only match the previous 17 we will end up with 61 points,
Until the recent injuries of tyson butler etc we were averaging just under 2 points a game

[mrfrostsdad]

When did DF take over officially? I thought it was Peterborough away? Maybe wrong. That would mean 22 points from 16 games.

Either way, whichever it is, we've won 9 games this season out of 29. There would have to be a Barnsleyesque upturn I'm form for us to get near the play offs.
If the Dingles can do it................

[The Red Baron]

Ferguson's first game was away at Shrewsbury, which we won 2-1.

[dickos1]

Yes and then we lost the next 2
You can't use the form before ferguson came he can't do anything about that,
Up until the last 4 games we've been good under him,
If we do slightly better over his next 17 games I think we will come close to the playoffs, just my opinion

[IDM]

2 points per game on average from now will give us a total of 70 points.  I don't think that is enough so I agree with mrfrostsdad that we would need a long winning streak to get there.  Not impossible, but unlikely.

After the season so far I would be happy with mid-60s points and a top half finish, but back in the form we had pre-Gillingham.

[dickos1]

2 points a game would make us have an exciting end to the season though cause I think we will get close if we manage that

[Dare to dream!]

50/1 with Skybet for a top 6 finish if anyone really fancies it

[IDM]

2 points a game would make us have an exciting end to the season though cause I think we will get close if we manage that

2 points per game would make for a great end to the season as we would be in promotion form ie winning most games.  It will bring us closer but IMHO not close enough.

Still, I would rather be competing at that end!

[eastender]

Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
Anyway here's what i see us getting from the games left-

SHEFF UTD(H)-DRAW
Barnsley(a)-WIN
MILLWALL(H)-LOSE
swindon(a)-LOSE
SHREWSBURY(H)-WIN
Bradford(a)-LOSE
PETERBOROUGH(H)-LOSE
Colchester(a)-WIN
BLACKPOOL(H)-DRAW
Rochdale(a)-WIN
Bury(a)-DRAW
WIGAN(H)-LOSE
Chesterfield(a)-DRAW
COVENTRY(H)-LOSE
Crewe(a)-WIN
Scunthorpe(a)-DRAW
BURTON(H)-DRAW

So that would be 16 points out of a possible 51 points.***I must have been tired 21 points out of 51.

 A bad start SCWK , may be 16pts wasn't such a bad estimate. 

[Sammy Chung was King]

Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
Anyway here's what i see us getting from the games left-

SHEFF UTD(H)-DRAW
Barnsley(a)-WIN
MILLWALL(H)-LOSE
swindon(a)-LOSE
SHREWSBURY(H)-WIN
Bradford(a)-LOSE
PETERBOROUGH(H)-LOSE
Colchester(a)-WIN
BLACKPOOL(H)-DRAW
Rochdale(a)-WIN
Bury(a)-DRAW
WIGAN(H)-LOSE
Chesterfield(a)-DRAW
COVENTRY(H)-LOSE
Crewe(a)-WIN
Scunthorpe(a)-DRAW
BURTON(H)-DRAW

So that would be 16 points out of a possible 51 points.***I must have been tired 21 points out of 51.

I hope i am wrong. A couple of weeks and our better players who are coming back from injury will be sharper!, is it just me or does Andy Williams look in need of a rest, he's looking very leggy lately?.

 A bad start SCWK , may be 21pts wasn't such a bad estimate. 

[The Red Baron]

Of course it s crackers
Fergie has been in charge for 17 games and we've got 25 points, even though we've had a few poor runs under him
Yet for the next 17 games were predicting were going to do considerably worse?

Still think it's crackers?

Might be worth pinning this thread so we can look back at the end of the season.

[dickos1]

Yes I think we will get a lot more than 16 points over the remaining games

[The Red Baron]

Incidentally I did a similar exercise to Sammy on the remaining games. I came up with 5 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats. That gives us 21 points.

Our away form and the opponents we face will save us. Unfortunately I can't see anything coming from the next two games.

[dickos1]

So you think we will only lose 3 games from the last 14?

[The Red Baron]

Based on who we are playing, yes.

[eastender]

Have plenty to play for, new contracts, keeping themselves in the managers thoughts, but most of all making sure that when we play Burton at home in the last game, we are not guests in our own stadium.
What i mean is having to watch another team celebrate promotion, while your team is just going through the motions. The players need to make sure when it comes to that game, they have something to play for.
Anyway here's what i see us getting from the games left-

SHEFF UTD(H)-DRAW ...........LOST
Barnsley(a)-WIN .............LOST 
MILLWALL(H)-LOSE
swindon(a)-LOSE
SHREWSBURY(H)-WIN
Bradford(a)-LOSE
PETERBOROUGH(H)-LOSE
Colchester(a)-WIN
BLACKPOOL(H)-DRAW
Rochdale(a)-WIN
Bury(a)-DRAW
WIGAN(H)-LOSE
Chesterfield(a)-DRAW
COVENTRY(H)-LOSE
Crewe(a)-WIN
Scunthorpe(a)-DRAW
BURTON(H)-DRAW

So that would be 16 points out of a possible 51 points.***I must have been tired 21 points out of 51.

 

Very bad start SCWK , looking at the remaining fixtures 16 pts might be a tad optimistic.