Looking grim for Labour

[IC1967]

Get in!

The latest YouGov/Sun opinion poll shows – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. No opposition starting from such a low base and with such an unpopular leader has gone on to win a general election.

My prediction of a Tory victory is looking better by the day. The country should heave a huge collective sigh of relief.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Erm, they still have a lead according to it, a lead is what it is.

I won't be confident unless it gets to election day and the Tories lead, which I still think is unlikely.

[godlike1]

I can see it being another hung parliment

people have seemingly wised up to the fact tha labour jsut spend spend dpend

they also know that tories cut cut cut

the lib dems have lost out to UKIP meaning that UKIP would get into power through the back door, now that is a scary scary thought that a bunch of racists could get voted into power.

this country has gone to the dogs without a doubt

[not on facebook]

I can see it being another hung parliment

people have seemingly wised up to the fact tha labour jsut spend spend dpend

they also know that tories cut cut cut

the lib dems have lost out to UKIP meaning that UKIP would get into power through the back door, now that is a scary scary thought that a bunch of racists could get voted into power.

Wake up smell the coffee as blighty as allready gone to the dogs
Look at what some sub way branches are Now doing as a tester
this country has gone to the dogs without a doubt

[Jenny]

So the country has gone to the dogs because Subway aren't serving bacon...

I think there are better yardsticks to use than that one, well, unless you are racist/xenphobic etc that is.

[Bentley Bullet]

Maybe one day we'll live in a country where flying our own flag isn't classed as racist.

[The Red Baron]

I think Godlike is right with his view of those figures. If there was a GE today then Labour would probably gain a small overall majority. Given the tendency of the incumbent party to pick up its share of the vote over the last few months of a Parliament, those numbers scream "Hung Parliament" to me.

I don't think that 14% for UKIP is particularly solid though. They're riding high at the moment because of the impending Euro Elections. If the notion that most UKIP voters are disaffected Tories is true, you may see the prospect of a Labour government driving some of them back into the Blue corner.

[IC1967]

What is important here is that Labour are only 1% ahead with exactly one year to go to the General Election. They've lost 8% since last September. They are going to lose more support as the next 12 months are going to be very good on all fronts for the government. For Labour to have had any chance of winning the election they should be polling over 40% at this stage of the electoral cycle.

If Scotland vote for independence, which I think they will, Labour are going to be totally stuffed. Most UKIP supporters will vote Tory in marginal seats. We are not stupid. We know that the Tories will give us a referendum on Europe and that Labour won't. This is a massive own goal by Milliband and shows just how incompetent he is.

By the way we are not racist. All we want is controlled immigration. So do the vast majority of the indigenous 'foreign' population that already lives in this country.

[River Don]

A lot can happen in the next twelve months. American growth looks to be faltering, when America sneezes we generally catch a cold. China looks to be on the verge of a property bubble collapsing. Europe is still sick and god knows what happen in Ukraine.

Avoid the economy being tripped up from any of those quarters and they still have the problem of the London property Market overheating and the possible need for an interest rate rise, which would risk plunging the UK right back into recession.

Negotiate all that and keep the economy on an even keel and they still have to hope they can placate enough UKIP supporters to hope to get a majority.

[Mr1Croft]

The Conservatives had a 7% lead in the polls going into the 2010 general election but didn't get enough seats for a majority, the polls aren't exactly scientific and only really show the likely results if the voting pattern expressed in the polls is the same in every region and every constituency.

What is more accurate measure of calculating the election results is by using the swing % of voters from one party to another which can be applied to very close seats and give a far more accurate reading. At the moment it looks like Labour would fall short of a majority, factor in what would happen if Scotland leave the UK and Labour would lose 41 seats whereas the Tories would only lose 1 of the 59 seats. 296 would be all that's required for the majority, the Tories would be on around 270, Labour 279 and the Lib Dems 32, which means that if Labour can't snatch the Lib Dems from the Tories for a coalition they would have to govern as a minority as there would only be 18 other seats remaining of the 591.

Obviously all if buts and maybes but the Scottish referendum (and what will ultimately happen if they vote yes (as it remains unanswered regarding our parliament) could play a huge fate.

[jucyberry]

It seems to me that surveys aren't worth the paper they are printed on. Did any one ask you? They didn't ask me..

We shall see come 2015, that is the test not some daft survey now.

[not on facebook]

So the country has gone to the dogs because Subway aren't serving bacon...

I think there are better yardsticks to use than that one, well, unless you are racist/xenphobic etc that is.

That is the exact main problem today.say or think anything Thats off colour
And to stamp you down out comes  'you must be a racist'

Look at the shite clarkson is going Throu

[BillyStubbsTears]

Look at the shite clarkson is going Throu

I know! Ridiculous isn't it. I saw the video and I'm sure he really, really, REALLY tried his hardest not to say "nigger". But he just couldn't quite manage it.

Can't see why he should be pilloried for that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Get in!

The latest YouGov/Sun opinion poll shows – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. No opposition starting from such a low base and with such an unpopular leader has gone on to win a general election.

My prediction of a Tory victory is looking better by the day. The country should heave a huge collective sigh of relief.

Go on then, if we're playing the "I don't know what the f**k I'm talking about when I discuss opinion polls" game.
Labour 3% ahead today. Trebled their lead in 24 hours. At this rate, they'll be on 1000% come polling day.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Get in!

The latest YouGov/Sun opinion poll shows – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. No opposition starting from such a low base and with such an unpopular leader has gone on to win a general election.

My prediction of a Tory victory is looking better by the day. The country should heave a huge collective sigh of relief.

Go on then, if we're playing the "I don't know what the f*** I'm talking about when I discuss opinion polls" game.
Labour 3% ahead today. Trebled their lead in 24 hours. At this rate, they'll be on 1000% come polling day.

The trend shows their lead decreasing - and more PPB's like the one yesterday won't help them much will it?

They need to fight an election on policy, not Tory bashing and trying to create a class war that we just don't need.

[IC1967]

Go on then, if we're playing the "I don't know what the f*** I'm talking about when I discuss opinion polls" game.
Labour 3% ahead today. Trebled their lead in 24 hours. At this rate, they'll be on 1000% come polling day.

 

Looks like someone's a bit miffed that the writing is on the wall for Labour. I think it's you that has displayed that you don't know what you are on about when discussing opinion polls. It really makes my piss boil when percentages are misused. Once and for all, 100% is the maximum percentage that is possible. As a scientologist I'd have thought you'd have had a basic grasp of maths but obviously not.

It's the trend that is important and with a year to go go there is only one way that Labour's poll rating is going to go. That's the same way it's been going for the last 2 years. 2 years ago they were getting 44%. 1 year ago they were getting 42%. Now they are getting 36% (best case scenario). This data is from the BBC Poll of Polls and is a few weeks out of date. I fully expect the 36% to have shrunk by the time they next report.

It is obvious to anyone with half a brain that Labour has suffered the more the economy has recovered. The best 12 months of the recovery are ahead for the government and that means one thing. Labour will not win the election. I fully expect a Tory majority.

Don't forget about the bet we had. Just be grateful that I took pity on you and didn't let you increase the wager.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

As I've said times many, I'll double that bet any time you want. You just have to give the word.
 How's that prediction of Labour polling 26% by May 2014 looking by the way?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I see my sarcasm missed the mark by the way. I was assuming that you were deliberately saying f**king daft things about poll numbers so I thought I'd join in the fun.

Here's a REALLLY daft thing that you said.

"No opposition starting from such a low base and with such an unpopular leader has gone on to win a general election."

Now, I'm sure you copied and pasted that from somewhere, and you probably thought that was really profound.

Thing is, detailed polling in public opinion of political leaders only started in the late 70s. And since then, we've only had three occurrences of an Opposition winning. So you (or actually, the person you copied it from) draw a conclusion from a tiny data set.

If you are looking for more robust statistical precedents, consider this. In the 18 General Elections since the War, the ruling party has only twice managed to increase the vote share it got at the previous GE. Those two (1966 and October 1974) were GEs after short-term Parliaments where a minority Govt took engineered an upturn in approval and called a snap Election.

So, if the Tories improve on their 36% from 2010, they will do what no full-term Govt has done since before the War.

Now. Have a look at the "Can the Conservatives Win" graph here.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
 Can they get a majority if they don't get above 36%? Aye. If Labour falls below 20%.

Still predicting a Tory majority Mick?

[BigColSutherland]

Here's a REALLLY daft thing that you said.

"No opposition starting from such a low base and with such an unpopular leader has gone on to win a general election."

Now, I'm sure you copied and pasted that from somewhere, and you probably thought that was really profound.

Nick Robinson

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27308751

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's a REALLLY daft thing that you said.

"No opposition starting from such a low base and with such an unpopular leader has gone on to win a general election."

Now, I'm sure you copied and pasted that from somewhere, and you probably thought that was really profound.

Nick Robinson

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27308751

Ah yes. How very unlike Mick to selectively quote to make a point. He'd make a superb MP.

[IC1967]

Still predicting a Tory majority

I am but due to UKIP and the fact that Labour get more MP's for less votes than the Tories I'm not totally certain. However I am totally certain that the Tories will get a bigger share of the vote than Labour.

Forget the history books, we are in uncharted territory. You need to stop always looking backwards and look forwards instead.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Still predicting a Tory majority

Forget the history books, we are in uncharted territory.

This could be a first. You have actually said something sensible and germane.

'Course it means that saying "No opposition starting from such a low base and with such an unpopular leader has gone on to win a general election" in the OP is utterly pointless, but you can't have it all.

[IC1967]

No it's not. Like I said just because it happened in the past doesn't mean it can't happen in the future. Like I said you need to stop always looking backwards and extrapolating the future from it. I use my vast intellect to predict the future whilst having regard to the past but that is only one piece of the jigsaw in my decision making process.

[wilts rover]

No it's not. Like I said just because it happened in the past doesn't mean it can't happen in the future. Like I said you need to stop always looking backwards and extrapolating the future from it. I use my vast intellect to predict the future whilst having regard to the past but that is only one piece of the jigsaw in my decision making process.

Kind of makes your opening post in this thread pointless then:

The latest YouGov/Sun opinion poll shows – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%. No opposition starting from such a low base and with such an unpopular leader has gone on to win a general election.

My prediction of a Tory victory is looking better by the day. The country should heave a huge collective sigh of relief

Unless you look at previous historical examples of what/may have happened in a scenario- you have no idea of what may happen in a given scenario. Its called 'guessing'.

[IC1967]

History is only one piece of the jigsaw. We have a coalition government. We have UKIP. We've had a devastating recession. This needs to be factored into predicting the future.

So history although important is not as relevant as it was in the past. I'm not stupid enough to think it is impossible for Labour to win based on history. Of course they can win. However I think it is extremely unlikely when considering all factors in the mix not just history.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Last night's poll again back to 34/35.

Delving in to it a bit deeper does throw up some interesting stats particularly a Scotland break which intriguingly would show Labour slightly worse off and the Tories better off.  As the poll gets narrower then Labour will get more reliant on Scotland and if they vote yes in September then a few awkward years could lie ahead (imagine a Labour lead of say 25 seats, but 30 higher in Scotland - that is a nightmare they must all be considering).

But, the Labour lead is narrowing and could disappear completely.  In reality the LD vote intention has dropped hugely.  You would think Labour being the natural other left sided party would gain a lot, they haven't really.

The key things for me that will make the difference are this;

1. Tories benefitting from an improving economy thus negating the so called 'cost of living crisis' - that one that not too many people are feeling right now to the extent it's a 'crisis'.

2.  Tories being able to offer some positives in budget etc - always happens.

3. Incumbnent party - seen as already able to do the job, benefit here from the usual 'labour left a mess' argument.

4. Ed Milliband.  In reality he is the Tories biggest weapon.  He's not a great leader in the scheme of things and that could show come election time.

5. Boris - Love or hate him, lots love him and the effect of him standing could be a boost.

6.  Europe - The Tories and UKIP probably hold the cards here.  We're a Euro sceptic country.

7.  Cuts - Labour could benefit here if they win the cuts argument, in reality as they've said they'd have to continue cutting this one could equally be tough for them to win.

8. UKIP/Lib Dems - Be interesting to see how this pans out.  In 2010 LD actually hurt the Tories more than Labour in marginals so if the LD vote does drop out it could help the Tories.

9. Ed Balls/Osbourne - Quite a key battle, but Labour IMO are hurt here in that Balls is not popular.  In reality the policies we've heard of so far are not too different to each other.

I think policy will tell us a lot and that is still to come.  Labour need to pull some rabbits out or they could lose the 'responsibility' argument on policy.  If they pledge to cut/refuse to reverse unpopular Tory policies, people will question what their argument has been.

Given it has closed that gap, it could be a very interesting 12 months ahead.  I predict a very close result, I wouldn't like to say which way it will go.  Either way, if EM can't win this one after the cuts notions, he never will.  Optimism in me says there are lots of positives for the blue party, but still a huge opportunity for Labour.  Every comment/quote could make a difference and Labour must become a party of optimism, not just the anti Tory party.  They never win with that approach.

[IC1967]

BFYP you make many good points. I agree with most of them. I think that the LibDems have lost support to Labour but will get some of it back come election day. They will get some credit for the economic recovery which is set to power ahead over the next 12 months. A lot of the people who say they will vote UKIP today will switch to the Tories come election day as they will realise that a vote for UKIP will be a wasted vote and will let Labour in, thus denying them a referendum. UKIP supporters in the main want out of Europe. The Tories are the only party prepared to offer a referendum so will get a lot of the anti EU vote. UKIP would only be a threat to the Tories if they had a chance of winning a seat. They don't (with the possible exception of Nigel Farage).

It is interesting to note that only a year ago Labour were around 10% ahead of the Tories. Now they are neck and neck. That's a big loss of support for Labour in such a short space of time. This has coincided with the recovery in the economy. I fully expect this trend to continue as the Tories have the best 12 months to come of their term in office. I am totally surprised that based on the evidence anyone thinks Labour can still win. It totally defies logic.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is the graph that tells you all you need to know about the current polling issues.



Yes, Labour has lost ~2% in the past 6 months and ~6% in the past 2 years.

But it's not gone to the Tories. The Tories are now polling pretty much exactly what they were when Labour were at their highest back in May 2012. None of Labour's lost support has gone to the Tories (or the LDs who are still flatlining).

It's gone to UKIP. The UKIP rise over the past 4 years has had 6 periods.

1) Late 2010 - UKIP support rose by 2-3%. Difficult to say from whom they took the votes, but let's assume it was the Tories.
2) 2011 - UKIP's support was rock steady
3) Early 2012 - they took a couple of percent off the Tories.
4) Summer 2012- Spring 2013 - they took maybe 3-4% off both the Tories AND Labour.
5) Spring 2013 - The Tories took 3% or so back off UKIP
6) Jan-May 2014 - UKIP has taken another couple of percent back off Labour.

Clear as day from that graph.

I'd say that the net effect since the last Election is that UKIP has taken 5-6% off Labour and 5-6% off the Tories.

Yet the general assumption is that if UKIP's support shrinks in 2015, it will benefit the Tories. Not much evidence of it from that graph.

[IC1967]

2 years ago Labour were around 13% ahead. 1 year ago they were around 10% ahead. Your figures are a joke. Currently they are neck and neck. With 12 months to go Labour will fall considerably behind on current trends.

UKIP are taking votes off the Tories far more than off Labour. Everyone knows that except you. The Tories will get the bulk of these votes back at the general election. You also ignore the fact that UKIP are picking up support off people that never vote (such as myself).  Face facts and stop looking for excuses. Labour have got no chance of winning.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You trust your "everybody knows it" ideas above actually looking at the numbers.

Grand.

So double up then Mick.