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It is actually as I predicted, the Lib Dem seats would be the deciding factor. If you look at the percentage of votes it hasn't changed much from last time, Labour up slightly more than Tory, it is the Lib Dem seats that have gone. Would the people who voted Lib Dem last time to keep the Tories out - still vote for them when they put the Tories in? It would appear not.
Re. UKIP. If Cameron does go ahead with the promised EU referendum then that issue will be settled one way or another for some time.That might still leave the issue of immigration, of course, but on that front they would be competing with other right wing parties and would therefore have lost their distinctness.