Looking grim for Labour

[IC1967]

Oh dear. Ipsos MORI had Labour 2 points ahead last week. They've now got the Tories ahead by 5 points! 35% to 30%.

I think we should beware of a single poll that shows a sudden shift like that. There will be plenty of other polls over the weekend so we can see if this represents the start of a trend.

I want Labour to win but have detected a significant shift to the Tories. For example UK Polling Report now has The Tories ahead in their poll of polls. This has only just happened. There have also been a spate of polls recently showing big Tory leads.

It is clear to me that the Tories are on the up and Labour are on the way down. Unfortunately Ed did very badly in the Question Time debate last night and Dave did much better. I think this is going to have a significant impact on the way the undecideds decide to vote.

I hope I'm wrong but after detailed analysis I still predict an overall Tory majority.

[The Red Baron]

I think we might be getting to a point where UK wide polls are about as useful in Scotland as they are in Northern Ireland.

If the Labour vote really is migrating to the SNP north of the border then one would expect that to be reflected in a lower percentage for Labour in UK wide polls. However, it might also mean that they are doing better in England and Wales than the UK polling suggests.

My feeling is still that we'll wake up to a Hung Parliament a week today. I'm still unsure as to which will be the larger of the two main parties. I lean slightly towards the Tories having marginally more seats than Labour.

[wilts rover]

Now I am not an expert pollster like wot u is Mick, but even I can see the trend here. You support UKIP - their polling rating goes down. You support Labour - their polling rating goes down. Any chance of you switching to the Tories before next Thursday?

[glosterred]

Really not looking good for Labour!

[GazLaz]

They are being wiped off the face of the map.

[IC1967]

Oh dear. Ipsos MORI had Labour 2 points ahead last week. They've now got the Tories ahead by 5 points! 35% to 30%.

I think we should beware of a single poll that shows a sudden shift like that. There will be plenty of other polls over the weekend so we can see if this represents the start of a trend.

I want Labour to win but have detected a significant shift to the Tories. For example UK Polling Report now has The Tories ahead in their poll of polls. This has only just happened. There have also been a spate of polls recently showing big Tory leads.

It is clear to me that the Tories are on the up and Labour are on the way down. Unfortunately Ed did very badly in the Question Time debate last night and Dave did much better. I think this is going to have a significant impact on the way the undecideds decide to vote.

I hope I'm wrong but after detailed analysis I still predict an overall Tory majority.

I told you so. Read the above post and weep all you lefties. I've made a fortune betting on that result.

Now I'd be grateful if all those people that doubted the voice of reason get in line and get your abject apologies sorted.

The title of the thread said it all. It ran for a long time with many thousands of views. This is conclusive prof that I know what I am on about. In future it would take a very brave person indeed to doubt me.

Get in.

[wing commander]

   I think it has become very clear that despite what Milliband expected oh and BST for that matter..Labour has been rejected in every area it fought..Dress it up how you like but for a party to perform as badly as that against a unpopular government due to Austerity..Labour really couldn't have done any worse...The bottom line is there are two reasons "People don't forget what they did last time" but for me people think they have drifted to far centre right..They don't see them as a socialist alternative....

[BillyStubbsTears]

WingCo

I think it's actually much worse for Labour that you say. They have lost in three different directions

Soctland and a fair fraction of the English working class see them as economically too right wing.
The aspiration English lower middle class see them as too right wing
The liberal middle class see them as too authoritarian/not green enough.

That's very similar to the problem that the Tories had in the early 2000s, when they were seen as not being right wing enough by their core voters, and as too right wing by everyone else.

The only thing that brought the Tories to power in 2010 was the recession. it was nothing that the Tories did explicitly. They were the beneficiaries of events. The only way I can see Labour being remotely competitive in 2020 is if so similarly catastrophic event screws the Tories. Something like a Black Wednesday, or a global collapse. Personally, whatever my own political preferences, I would never want that to befall the country.

I'll put my hand up. I called this spectacularly wrong. Sometimes, you've got to be a big enough man to put your hand up and admit that.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think it's a mix of things. When it comes down to it people haven't forgotten the economic problems and the Tory rhetoric of blaming labour is a strong line of attack.

Secondly, no matter what people say, the style of ed is an issue and he can be seen as weak, people just don't trust him or his team.

Furthermore, the Lib vote didn't go to labour and UKIP didn't hurt the Tories much more than labour, something I had predicted .

still astounding that Cameron has increased his vote share and number of seats after all the flack they've taken.  When it comes down to it the country is more Tory than we think. I thought it wasn't the best campaign by them and I say that as a Tory voter. But it has worked and they're gonna get a very small majority it seems.  If they get boundary changes through its a big plus for them in 2020 under a new leader

[IC1967]

There are many reasons why Labour lost. The main one is that the English do not like socialism. Blair understood this but Milliband didn't.

Another major reason was the lack of an in out EU referendum.

I could go on.

[grayx]

At least we now know we've got 5 more years of austerity measures, an health service thats gonna be even more on its arse than it is now, true unemployment figures hidden by employers abusing zero hour contracts, fat greedy tories getting fatter and greedier, graduates leaving uni with massive student loan debts. The future bright isn't it?

Get in!

I'm not bitter though..

[IC1967]

At least we now know we've got 5 more years of austerity measures, an health service thats gonna be even more on its arse than it is now, true unemployment figures hidden by employers abusing zero hour contracts, fat greedy tories getting fatter and greedier, graduates leaving uni with massive student loan debts. The future bright isn't it?

Get in!

I'm not bitter though..

No but you are very deluded. We have not had austerity. In case you didn't know the National Debt doubled under the coalition. This can by no means be described as austerity.

[bpoolrover]

The polls didn't help labour I think it encouraged more Tories to vote

[BillyStubbsTears]

Farage fails to win his seat.

So, assuming that he sticks to his promise to step-down if he didn't win, that's three leaders of the four largest parties in votes resigning, plus the Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Foreign Secretary and Cabinet ministers like the Chief Secretary, BIS and Energy all gone. I can't recall there EVER being a cull of leading politicians like that in a single election in the last 100 years.

[GazLaz]

Farage and Clegg both resigned. Is there a stand out candidate to replace Ed? Probably not. Chuka may be favourite and he's useless.

[The Red Baron]

Farage and Clegg both resigned. Is there a stand out candidate to replace Ed? Probably not. Chuka may be favourite and he's useless.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next Labour leader is Mrs Balls, aka Yvette Cooper. Mind you, she always looks as though she's sucking a particularly sour lemon, so that might turn voters off.

[grayx]

At least we now know we've got 5 more years of austerity measures, an health service thats gonna be even more on its arse than it is now, true unemployment figures hidden by employers abusing zero hour contracts, fat greedy tories getting fatter and greedier, graduates leaving uni with massive student loan debts. The future bright isn't it?

Get in!

I'm not bitter though..

No but you are very deluded. We have not had austerity. In case you didn't know the National Debt doubled under the coalition. This can by no means be described as austerity.

Got it...

[Jenny]

At least we now know we've got 5 more years of austerity measures, an health service thats gonna be even more on its arse than it is now, true unemployment figures hidden by employers abusing zero hour contracts, fat greedy tories getting fatter and greedier, graduates leaving uni with massive student loan debts. The future bright isn't it?

Get in!

I'm not bitter though..

Never understood why people have an issue with having to pay for a university education. A degree enhances your earning potential, therefore why should you benefit from this for nothing? A student loan is just a graduate tax, it isn't a millstone around necks given you pay it back when you afford it.

The loans aren't the issue, the issue is the dumbing down of the university system allowing anyone to go and studying the most mickey mouse of subjects - but then of course, they won't get any further in life with their degree and will have their loan written off when they never earnt enough to breach the thresholds. The only losers are the tax payers that are part funding a piss up!

[Glyn_Wigley]

Farage fails to win his seat.

So, assuming that he sticks to his promise to step-down if he didn't win, that's three leaders of the four largest parties in votes resigning, plus the Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Foreign Secretary and Cabinet ministers like the Chief Secretary, BIS and Energy all gone. I can't recall there EVER being a cull of leading politicians like that in a single election in the last 100 years.

Farage has very broadly hinted that he will resign but stand again for the leadership. So much for saying that the party had to have a leader in the Commons which was why he would have to go if her didn't win...!

[Glyn_Wigley]

At least we now know we've got 5 more years of austerity measures, an health service thats gonna be even more on its arse than it is now, true unemployment figures hidden by employers abusing zero hour contracts, fat greedy tories getting fatter and greedier, graduates leaving uni with massive student loan debts. The future bright isn't it?

Get in!

I'm not bitter though..

Never understood why people have an issue with having to pay for a university education. A degree enhances your earning potential, therefore why should you benefit from this for nothing? A student loan is just a graduate tax, it isn't a millstone around necks given you pay it back when you afford it.

The loans aren't the issue, the issue is the dumbing down of the university system allowing anyone to go and studying the most mickey mouse of subjects - but then of course, they won't get any further in life with their degree and will have their loan written off when they never earnt enough to breach the thresholds. The only losers are the tax payers that are part funding a piss up!

I would advocate full or partial funding for students in subjects the country needs more people qualified in, to attract more students to those areas.

[Jenny]

I wouldn't.

Ultimately I believe that people should be in jobs that they feel passionate about, all you would do in that scenario is throw money at people to go down one career path despite their heart not being fully in it. You see it quite a lot with teachers, finish their degrees, don't know what to do in life so do a PGCE because they get it funded and end up teaching a subject their heart isn't in and it is the kids that suffer...

[bpoolrover]

Agree with you jenny,so many people go to uni for the lifestyle as such and end up cing out with nothing

[IC1967]

The huge increase in people going to uni was a Labour ploy to keep them off the dole figures.

[i_ateallthepies]

The huge increase in people going to uni was a Labour ploy to keep them off the dole figures.

And getting people to advance their education rather than draw dole is of course much worse than using zero-hours contracts to get people of the dole queue...

[bpoolrover]

All the parties use zero hour contracts thou,how can you not?if you make it a law not to have them then firms just won't employ anyone and make do,they are fAr from perfect but better than nothing

[IC1967]

Right. I've got a question for all you lefties. Where the hell are all the abject apologies?

I alone predicted a Tory majority. You lefties thought I was an idiot. The very least I deserve is boatloads of praise for getting it so right.

Get on with it. You know you should.

[i_ateallthepies]

You miss my point bpoolrover.  I only used zero-hours contracts to put into context the absurdity of Mick's point about labour using university to get people off the dole.

[IC1967]

You miss my point bpoolrover.  I only used zero-hours contracts to put into context the absurdity of Mick's point about labour using university to get people off the dole.

Waffling on about zero hours contracts is absurd. A tiny proportion of workers are on them.  The vast majority of workers prefer them to a 'normal' contract.

It's about time you lefties started putting the employer first for a change.

[hoolahoop]

The "zero hours" argument was wasted on 95% of the population. What the hell was it all about , was he deliberately thrown a curved ball by the strategists. People want to know about the economy as a whole surely...it was bizarre !

[Dare to dream!]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/hours-after-the-election-the-dwp-says-is-looking-to-cut-a-disabled-access-to-work-scheme-10237191.html

So it begins...