Voting Intention

[IC1967]

Right. The time has come to test out whether my total demolition job on left wing socialist ideology has paid off. I know a lot of us will be voting tactically as our first past the post system is totally unfair. However for the purposes of this poll I'd appreciate it if you would pick who you really want and assume we had proportional representation. For example I'll be kicking things off by picking UKIP but will actually be voting Labour in Doncaster.

I'm hoping that I've totally discredited Labour and this will be reflected in the above poll.

[The Red Baron]

I thought you were voting tactically to try to keep Labour out? Though any result other than a Labour win in Donny would be as likely as our current team winning six on the bounce.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Hang on? I thought Nigel was standing against Ed and was going to take him a ta-ta?

Or was it Jeremy, I forget now.

[GazLaz]

Ed's now 1.67 on Betfair to be the next PM after pretty relentless recent support. CON are 1.3 to get most seats, it's a bizarre system we have.

[The Red Baron]

Ed's now 1.67 on Betfair to be the next PM after pretty relentless recent support. CON are 1.3 to get most seats, it's a bizarre system we have.

Sounds about right to me. A good bet would be how long it will take after the election to form a Government. It may take 2-3 weeks unless two parties are willing to enter a coalition.

The only party that seems keen on a coalition is the Lib Dems and it is hard to see them holding the balance of power on their own.

PS. When they say "the next PM" it is worth checking the timescale. If the Tories are the largest single party but well short of a majority then Cameron will have to stay on as PM until he or Miliband can form a government.

PPS. What odds on a 1974-style second General Election in the autumn?

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

No doubt in that scenario, The Sun and the Mail will run those headlines screaming for the "squatter" to get out of Downing Street, like they did in 2010?

[GazLaz]

Can someone educate me, who has first dibs at being a minority government if a majority can't be created?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gaz

No standard approach to who has first dibs.

The key is that someone needs to be able to survive a vote of confidence in the House. Any Party that can't get enough support (or agreements to abstain) to survive such a vote, cannot form a Govt.

They'll all be negotiating behind the scenes and doing "what if" analyses to see if they can buy off small parties. No one will want to go into a vote of confidence without having a good idea that they will win in. It would be humiliating to lose such a vote.

So the serious attempt at forming a Govt will come from the party that feels confident enough to face a vote of confidence.

But there's a catch. The PM remains PM until he either loses a VoC or accepts that he can't win one and goes to the Queen to resign. So in that sense, Cameron gets the first go. Even if Miliband thinks he can put an agreement forward that would result in him surviving a VoC, he doesn't get the chance to try it unless Cameron resigns or has a go at a VoC himself and loses.

Could take weeks. A few years ago, Belgium went 18 months or so without a Govt after a split election result.

[BillyStubbsTears]

PS

In simple terms, the Tories probably need 290 seats to be able to survive a VoC (assuming they have, say 25 LDs, 2UKIP and 8 DUP votes on their side in a VoC.

Labour could probably survive a VoC with 265 votes if SNP, SDLP, PC, Greens agree to support them in a VoC. Maybe less if the LDs came in board as well. But who can tell who the LDs would support, eh?

[The Red Baron]

TRB

No doubt in that scenario, The Sun and the Mail will run those headlines screaming for the "squatter" to get out of Downing Street, like they did in 2010?

I'm sure there will be plenty of ill-informed comment if that scenario does come about. Of course there was a fairly recent precedent from February 1974 when Ted Heath hung on for a few days in hopes of cutting a deal with Jeremy Thorpe's Liberals.

[IC1967]

I thought you were voting tactically to try to keep Labour out? Though any result other than a Labour win in Donny would be as likely as our current team winning six on the bounce.

No. You need to read the 'I've changed my mind' thread. I want Labour to win and form a government that lasts about 2 years before it falls apart and then they will be unelectable for a generation.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Hmm...funny how UKIP shoots up the moment Mick (and presumably his other aliases) pops up again..!

[IC1967]

Hmm...funny how UKIP shoots up the moment Mick (and presumably his other aliases) pops up again..!

Hahahaha! The mods know there is no alias foul play at work here. Interesting results so far. UKIP/Tories getting a bigger share than Labour.

My work has been worthwhile.

[BobG]

I love the way Mick, our Resident Idiot, simply can't bring himself to let anything go! Now that I don't get to see the shite he souts, it's really both entertaining and informative simply seeing when and how often I get the fantastic line " You are ignoring this User" He rises to the bait every single time. And quite often he gets in such a lather that he has to relieve himself two or even three times. Bloke's a tosser in every sense.

BobG

[IC1967]

I love the way Mick, our Resident Idiot, simply can't bring himself to let anything go! Now that I don't get to see the shite he souts, it's really both entertaining and informative simply seeing when and how often I get the fantastic line " You are ignoring this User" He rises to the bait every single time. And quite often he gets in such a lather that he has to relieve himself two or even three times. Bloke's a tosser in every sense.

BobG

Hahahahahaha! I'd have a word with your psychiatrist mate. Tell him to clear his appointment list and get yourself booked in. He'll have his hands full sorting you out. I'd first ask him to sort out your homo erotic tendencies where you can't seem to post without indulging in this kind of fantasy.

IC1967

[Glyn_Wigley]

Hmm...funny how UKIP shoots up the moment Mick (and presumably his other aliases) pops up again..!

Hahahaha! The mods no there is no alias foul play at work here. Interesting results so far. UKIP/Tories getting a bigger share than Labour.

My work has been worthwhile.

It's first past the post so tough tits.

[IC1967]

Hmm...funny how UKIP shoots up the moment Mick (and presumably his other aliases) pops up again..!

Hahahaha! The mods no there is no alias foul play at work here. Interesting results so far. UKIP/Tories getting a bigger share than Labour.

My work has been worthwhile.

It's first past the post so tough tits.

There speaks the voice of a democrat.

Interesting poll results so far. Just shows that Labour have lost a lot of support over the last 5 years. UKIP showing up strongly at the expense of Labour for the most part I'd bet. When you think UKIP only had 3% of the vote at the last election it is plain to see they've made huge strides.

This is not the general election where we break through. It's the next one. Just look how quickly Labour were wiped out in Scotland. The same can happen in England.

2 years of a shambolic Labour government should do the trick.

Get in.

[GazLaz]

Wales don't seem to be happy with how Labour have been doing things. The NHS is in a right state there apparently.

[BobG]

When it's the Westminster Parliament that controls the purse strings for the Welsh Assembly just how much influence and power do you think ANY party has in Wales Gaz?

The Welsh Govt has been well and truly hamstrung by the lack of Westminster funding for Wlaes. It's so bad that the Welsh generally, of all parties, have been banging on for a while now about the desparate need to bring their funding upto the level enjoyed by Scotland! And no one could say that the Scots are overly well endowed by London could they?!!!! From memory, health in the Welsh Assembly is under funded by over £3BN compared to Scotland and Scotland is underfunded by billions more compared to England and that, again, is underfunded by billions more compared to the south of England.

Don't you remember what the first act of the wonderful Cameron Govt was back in 2010? To refuse a measly couple of huindred million guarantee (a guarantee! Not yer actual money) to Sheffield Forgemasters which would have allowed them to buy the kit to enhance their already top level status to being one of the few world leaders? The Tories were taking their revenge. And they've done exactly the same to Wales and Scotland ever since too. Areas that don't vote Tory get their funding chopped off at the knees. So don't blame the Labour Govt in Wales. They've done a f***ing fantastic job in the circumstances.

BobG

[Dutch Uncle]

Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......

[IC1967]

Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......

The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html

[IC1967]

When it's the Westminster Parliament that controls the purse strings for the Welsh Assembly just how much influence and power do you think ANY party has in Wales Gaz?

The Welsh Govt has been well and truly hamstrung by the lack of Westminster funding for Wlaes. It's so bad that the Welsh generally, of all parties, have been banging on for a while now about the desparate need to bring their funding upto the level enjoyed by Scotland! And no one could say that the Scots are overly well endowed by London could they?!!!! From memory, health in the Welsh Assembly is under funded by over £3BN compared to Scotland and Scotland is underfunded by billions more compared to England and that, again, is underfunded by billions more compared to the south of England.

Don't you remember what the first act of the wonderful Cameron Govt was back in 2010? To refuse a measly couple of huindred million guarantee (a guarantee! Not yer actual money) to Sheffield Forgemasters which would have allowed them to buy the kit to enhance their already top level status to being one of the few world leaders? The Tories were taking their revenge. And they've done exactly the same to Wales and Scotland ever since too. Areas that don't vote Tory get their funding chopped off at the knees. So don't blame the Labour Govt in Wales. They've done a f***ing fantastic job in the circumstances.

BobG

Total cobblers. England is the poor relation when it comes to who gets the most money.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html

IC1967

[casperjebba]

Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......

The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html

Well that's not true.

[IC1967]

Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......

The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html

Well that's not true.

What's not true?

[casperjebba]

Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......

The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html

That bit.

[IC1967]

Over here in Northern Ireland I'm feeling a little left out of this poll with those options......

The hard truth is that in England we couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. It's about time you joined up with the South and became one great country again. It won't happen though because us English give you too much money.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/1580787/How-the-Barnett-formula-works.html

That bit.

You're entitled to your opinion. I beg to differ. In fact Northern Irish Catholics are more in favour of keeping the union than the English are. With good reason. Northern Ireland costs England a fortune. The sooner we get rid the better.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100095628/northern-ireland-catholics-are-now-more-unionist-than-the-english-can-the-united-kingdom-last/

[wilts rover]

Interesting that you are putting forward another reason for the Conservative and Unionist Party not to exist, I wonder what David Cameron thinks of that?

[IC1967]

Interesting that you are putting forward another reason for the Conservative and Unionist Party not to exist, I wonder what David Cameron thinks of that?

The Tories couldn't care less about Northern Ireland. They'd be glad to see the back of it. Once Scotland goes the inevitable way of independence they'll just need to change their name to the Conservative party and we can work towards getting rid of Wales and Northern Ireland too.

At the very least they should only get the same money as England. If they don't like it, tough titty.

[wilts rover]

Oh I think you may be a somewhat wrong there. Anyway I thought you were a big picture type of person, have you forgotten that all our positions of influence in the UN, G8 etc are held as the United Kingdom. If that goes... we shall be as influential as Switzerland.

[IC1967]

Oh I think you may be a somewhat wrong there. Anyway I thought you were a big picture type of person, have you forgotten that all our positions of influence in the UN, G8 etc are held as the United Kingdom. If that goes... we shall be as influential as Switzerland.

Good. We've been living on past glories for far too long.