The use of Nerve Agent in the UK

[Filo]

If evidence emerges that this a Russian state attempt to use Chemical weapons on UK soil, what response should we as a nation take. Dare we take on Putin?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well if this Govt was keen on really hitting Putin and his mates, they could start by cleaning out the stables in the City, where the Russian gangsters launder their money.

[Filo]

I would think we need hard evidence first before we react, but I don't suppose Nerve Agents are freely availible to Joe Public, so somewhere along the line there is higher profile involvement

[Geoff Blakesley]

Same as Litvinenko probably

[selby]

  It will never happen Billy, there is too much at stake for the high rollers. Give it a couple of months and it is yesterdays fish and chip paper.
  Anyway the fact that he was our agent started the ball rolling, but of course we play fair don't we?

[selby]

  Filo, we may expel a couple of low ranking embassy officials and make it out to be a big thing, which interestingly we did in the early 70s I think.
   Wilson expelled 90 odd in retaliation for them catching our spy ring, they included some men from Barnby Dun who were accused of spying on the R.A.F. at Bawtry headquarters, and who were supposed to work for a plant importing firm called Umo plant on the Pilkingtons site.
  They seemed to be decent lads to me, shows what I know.

[hoolahoop]

Whatever the weight of evidence against Russia/ ANother - we carry little weight in way of response at least not publicly.

[Sprotyrover]

We couldn't knock our way out of a Brown paper bag!

[selby]

  Sporty, I agree, but do not underestimate our dirty tricks brigade, we are just as good, if not better than the ruskies at that.
   Don't think for one minute we cannot replicate what has happened, or that we will not get to know exactly what did happen.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sproty. Why would we need to knock our way out of anything? I thought Putin’s Russia was supposed to be our friend?

[The Red Baron]

I find it puzzling that the Russians would go to the trouble of trying to bump off a retired spy whom they were willing to let go as part of an exchange. It doesn't appear that this chap posed a particular threat to the Russians nor was he (unlike Litvinenko) an open opponent of Putin.

There's a lot more to this than meets the eye. Although I hold no brief for Putin (indeed I agree that he is dangerous) I'll reserve judgment on the notion that this was a Russian secret service operation.

[Filo]

  Filo, we may expel a couple of low ranking embassy officials and make it out to be a big thing, which interestingly we did in the early 70s I think.
   Wilson expelled 90 odd in retaliation for them catching our spy ring, they included some men from Barnby Dun who were accused of spying on the R.A.F. at Bawtry headquarters, and who were supposed to work for a plant importing firm called Umo plant on the Pilkingtons site.
  They seemed to be decent lads to me, shows what I know.

Interesting, I worked at Pilkingtons for 23 years and have never heard that one before

[Filo]

I find it puzzling that the Russians would go to the trouble of trying to bump off a retired spy whom they were willing to let go as part of an exchange. It doesn't appear that this chap posed a particular threat to the Russians nor was he (unlike Litvinenko) an open opponent of Putin.

There's a lot more to this than meets the eye. Although I hold no brief for Putin (indeed I agree that he is dangerous) I'll reserve judgment on the notion that this was a Russian secret service operation.

ISIS, framing the Russians?

[Dutch Uncle]

Personal grudge from ex colleagues acting on their own?

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

1) According to news reports, Skripal was giving lectures to trainees of the U.K. security services. A security expert on the radio the other day suggested that this meant that the FSB would consider him to still be on active service and hence, fair game.

2) This could also be Putin’s way of testing our mettle when it comes to responding. And also giving a message that he doesn’t fear us. A bit like the regular sorties by Russian bombers testing our East Coast air defences.

[wilts rover]

I'm with TRB on this one, it's just too convenient to blame it on the Russians - why him and why now? What's he been doing for the past 8 years whilst he has been in this country?

Is it a coincidence that he lives in Salisbury - as does the bloke who recruited him for MI6. When this bloke retired from MI6 he went into business with another colleague from MI6 - Christopher Steele who has been in the news recently as he compiled the dossier into Trump's collusion with the Russians. The dossier that contains information that came from an un-named, former Russian intelligence officer. There will be a lot of people who would want to hear more from this officer - and a lot who wouldn't.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/07/poisoned-russian-spy-sergei-skripal-close-consultant-linked/

Is it also a coincidence that the guy was attacked with a nerve agent, and you see who dangerous this stuff is to use and be in contact with, who would want to carry it around, 5 miles away from the UK's main chemical warfare establishment?

[The Red Baron]

TRB

1) According to news reports, Skripal was giving lectures to trainees of the U.K. security services. A security expert on the radio the other day suggested that this meant that the FSB would consider him to still be on active service and hence, fair game.

2) This could also be Putin’s way of testing our mettle when it comes to responding. And also giving a message that he doesn’t fear us. A bit like the regular sorties by Russian bombers testing our East Coast air defences.

I appreciate that the use of a nerve agent is both scary to the general population and makes it sound like the action of a foreign power. But surely if you wanted to get rid of a rogue agent you'd have done so in private and a long way from possible CCTV cameras? This is a three pipe problem!

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Not at all. If you’re brazen enough to make a point, you do it in as nasty and as open a way as possible.

Like Litvinenko.

You do it publicly for the same reason that Napoleon occasionally had a General executed in public: ‘pour “encourager” les autres’ to act as you want them to act or risk the same end.

Le Carre (who knew a thing or two about the immorality of the espionage world) wrote about this when Moscow had a troublesome Baltic emigre living in London bumped off in “Smiley’s People”. He had his face blown off with a dum-dum bullet on Hampstead Heath and the body left to be found. To send a message to others to back off.

And if that brazenness also terrorises the civilian population into believing that you’re prepared to go to any lengths, then that’s an extra win. It’s a chilling way of saying: “Do you REALLY want to f**k with us? This time it was an obvious, specific target. Next time it might go into the air con system of a big tower block.”

So it’s Occam’s Razor for me. Russia has previous. Putin is on record as saying that those who betray the Motherland will be dealt with. And the method of the assassination attempt narrows the possible source down to a handful of possible sources. One of which is Russia.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Personal grudge from ex colleagues acting on their own?

It’s possible I suppose, but why would an ex-colleague with a personal grudge against a specific person go to the trouble of targeting him by such an “elegant” method? What would there be to gain by doing that?

Using nerve agent seems to me to be specifically designed to send a message to a far wider audience than the target himself.

[Muttley]

Suicide pact?

Assassination by the daughter under direction from Moscow?

What is the interest in his son’s gravestone about?

[Dutch Uncle]

Personal grudge from ex colleagues acting on their own?

It’s possible I suppose, but why would an ex-colleague with a personal grudge against a specific person go to the trouble of targeting him by such an “elegant” method? What would there be to gain by doing that?

Using nerve agent seems to me to be specifically designed to send a message to a far wider audience than the target himself.

Of course you are far more likely to be right, I was just grasping at straws.

[The Red Baron]

Suicide pact?

Assassination by the daughter under direction from Moscow?

What is the interest in his son’s gravestone about?

I wonder about the daughter as well. She came to England with him and was going to apply for citizenship, but then decided to return to Moscow.

The other part of the puzzle is that Skripal was seen at different times on that day with two different women. One a blonde, so probably the daughter, but later with a woman with dark hair. Was the latter the assassin?

The Russian Secret service almost certainly is involved in this, but how and for what reason?

[RobTheRover]

Personal grudge from ex colleagues acting on their own?

It’s possible I suppose, but why would an ex-colleague with a personal grudge against a specific person go to the trouble of targeting him by such an “elegant” method? What would there be to gain by doing that?

They should check who didn't send him a Christmas card last year.

I'm like bloody Columbo, me.

[BillyStubbsTears]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/from-russia-with-blood-14-suspected-hits-on-british-soil?utm_term=.tjol5opVg#.dab5EOP6L

14 suspicious deaths in the U.K. in recent years, of people known to be enemies of the Russian state or Russian gangsters.

Some chilling thoughts in there.

The core reason British authorities have turned a blind eye, a current senior national security adviser to the British government told BuzzFeed News, is fear. Ministers, he said, were not prepared to take the “political risk of dealing firmly and effectively in whatever way with the activities of the Russian state and Russian-organised crime in the UK” because the Kremlin could inflict massive harm on Britain by unleashing cyberattacks, destabilising the economy, or mobilising elements of Britain’s large Russian population to “cause disruption”. Deep law enforcement funding cuts mean “our capabilities are very weak”, he said. It was also impossible to rule out the risk of “general war with Russia” in the current climate, he said, and “if it were to happen it would happen very, very rapidly, and we would be entirely unprepared”

Read that and then think about how desperate Amber Rudd was to publicly tell everyone to avoid jumping to conclusions about Russian involvement this week.

[wilts rover]

No-one who had any contact with them after they were found on the bench, the restaurant staff, pub staff, ambulance staff are reported to be ill. The only person who did become ill is the police officer - who went to their house.

The army took stuff away from the house and the hospital (the ambulance they were in and the officer's police car) but not from the restaurant or pub. So it's fairly clear they dont think they were poisoned at either of those places - but it may have happened at the house.

So was it something that came through the post - or was it something the daughter brought over with her? Maybe something to put on the graves hence the interest there?

According to the BBC she works for Pepsi.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43355824

According to the FT they have no record of her.
https://www.ft.com/content/c713dd5e-238b-11e8-ae48-60d3531b7d11

[wilts rover]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/heidiblake/from-russia-with-blood-14-suspected-hits-on-british-soil?utm_term=.tjol5opVg#.dab5EOP6L

14 suspicious deaths in the U.K. in recent years, of people known to be enemies of the Russian state or Russian gangsters.

Some chilling thoughts in there.

The core reason British authorities have turned a blind eye, a current senior national security adviser to the British government told BuzzFeed News, is fear. Ministers, he said, were not prepared to take the “political risk of dealing firmly and effectively in whatever way with the activities of the Russian state and Russian-organised crime in the UK” because the Kremlin could inflict massive harm on Britain by unleashing cyberattacks, destabilising the economy, or mobilising elements of Britain’s large Russian population to “cause disruption”. Deep law enforcement funding cuts mean “our capabilities are very weak”, he said. It was also impossible to rule out the risk of “general war with Russia” in the current climate, he said, and “if it were to happen it would happen very, very rapidly, and we would be entirely unprepared”

Read that and then think about how desperate Amber Rudd was to publicly tell everyone to avoid jumping to conclusions about Russian involvement this week.

No-one has been talking about anyone else other than Russian involvement so that clearly didnt work!

Other than this guy who claims to know a bit about it
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2018/03/some-reflections-on-the-events-in-salisbury-.html

[The Red Baron]

No-one who had any contact with them after they were found on the bench, the restaurant staff, pub staff, ambulance staff are reported to be ill. The only person who did become ill is the police officer - who went to their house.

The army took stuff away from the house and the hospital (the ambulance they were in and the officer's police car) but not from the restaurant or pub. So it's fairly clear they dont think they were poisoned at either of those places - but it may have happened at the house.

So was it something that came through the post - or was it something the daughter brought over with her? Maybe something to put on the graves hence the interest there?

According to the BBC she works for Pepsi.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43355824

According to the FT they have no record of her.
https://www.ft.com/content/c713dd5e-238b-11e8-ae48-60d3531b7d11

Aren't they looking at the son's grave to see if he was poisoned? (Presumably this wasn't considered when he died?) Perhaps not. Deep waters here.

[Filo]

No-one who had any contact with them after they were found on the bench, the restaurant staff, pub staff, ambulance staff are reported to be ill. The only person who did become ill is the police officer - who went to their house.

The army took stuff away from the house and the hospital (the ambulance they were in and the officer's police car) but not from the restaurant or pub. So it's fairly clear they dont think they were poisoned at either of those places - but it may have happened at the house.

So was it something that came through the post - or was it something the daughter brought over with her? Maybe something to put on the graves hence the interest there?

According to the BBC she works for Pepsi.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43355824

According to the FT they have no record of her.
https://www.ft.com/content/c713dd5e-238b-11e8-ae48-60d3531b7d11

Aren't they looking at the son's grave to see if he was poisoned? (Presumably this wasn't considered when he died?) Perhaps not. Deep waters here.

I read somewhere that his Son was cremated, so there would be no body to do tests on

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

An interesting debating technique for a lefty! Wheeling Peter Hitchens out.

See, PH is undoubtedly extremely intelligent. He’s certainly intelligent enough to craft a plausible story that blithely ignores inconvenient facts.

Consider: He makes a big issue of the fact that anyone can make nerve agents (he mentions Aum Shinrikyo doing so in 1995.)

Can nerve agents, such as sarin, only be obtained or made by governments, as has been said a lot this morning? I had thought that the fanatics who released sarin on the Tokyo underground in 1995 had made it themselves.

He published that piece on Thursday afternoon. But on Thursday morning, I heard it reported on the radio that sources were claiming the substance used was rather than sarin or VX
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43326734

I’ve got a day job. Hitchens is a full-time polemicist. Odd that I heard that but he didn’t.

He also questions why Russia would want to carry out the killing. And he effectively concludes (or leaves it to the reader to conclude) that they wouldn’t.

Here’s two perfectly plausible reasons why Russia might want to do this.
1) It’s been reported that Skripal was advising U.K. security services on Russian cyber threats. I’ve no idea if that is true, but it certainly is true that Russia sets great store by its cyber warfare capabilities.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberattacks_during_the_Russo-Georgian_War
So there’s a potential reason straightaway. They don’t want whatever cyber threats they may hold over us to be mitigated.

2) Hitchens has obviously never seen Dr Strangelove. Last 90 seconds here.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2yfXgu37iyI

If you have a new weapon which you want to use as part of a deterrence strategy, you need to show three things:
a) It is devastating
b) It is very difficult to defend against
c) You are prepared to use it.

If you develop weapons for deterrence, as Strangelove says “Why would you keep it secret? Why don’t you tell the world?”

There’s a perfectly logical argument that Putin has just demonstrated a, b and most importantly, c. I’m surprised that an argument like that didn’t occur to someone as noble and intelligent as Hitchens.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts

No-one has been talking about anyone else other than Russian involvement so that clearly didnt work!

I’m sorry, I thought my point was obvious. I’ll spell it out.

Amber Rudd was at pains to send a message that THE UK GOVERNMENT wasn’t jumping to public conclusions that Putin was to blame and had to be punished. That wasn’t a message sent to the U.K. population. It was a message sent to the Kremlin.