The use of Nerve Agent in the UK

[albie]

BST,

I tend to think everything Amber Rudd says is about flannelling a UK audience. The Kremlin have probably never heard of her, or consider her in the same mold as Boris....ie, a lightweight of no importance.

As a traded commodity, the poisoned party would surely have been under the care and supervision of UK security services. So where were they when all this kicked off?

Just asking, like!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

You reckon MI6 were wiping his arse every morning, noon and night for the past 8 years?

[The Red Baron]

BST,

I tend to think everything Amber Rudd says is about flannelling a UK audience. The Kremlin have probably never heard of her, or consider her in the same mold as Boris....ie, a lightweight of no importance.

As a traded commodity, the poisoned party would surely have been under the care and supervision of UK security services. So where were they when all this kicked off?

Just asking, like!

I can't help wondering whether Amber Rudd's measured response isn't as much to do with trying to calm down reactions from sections of the media. And even if the police and / or security services do find a smoking gun that points to Russian state involvement, I wonder how much we will ever know?

As Skripal was not an active agent (at least that's what we've been told) I wouldn't have thought MI6 would have the resources to keep tabs on him on a daily basis.

[Sprotyrover]

So the Russians were such a threat to this gent yet they merrily permitted his daughter to lead a normal life over there... hmmm

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well, May’s statement has just upped the ante somewhat.

I hope no-one is expecting to see England in the World Cup this summer.

Nervous times.

[Filo]

Well, May’s statement has just upped the ante somewhat.

I hope no-one is expecting to see England in the World Cup this summer.

Nervous times.

She's summond the Russian ambassador, not sure why, they're never going to say yes it was us


But obviously using this agent is like leaving a calling card, the Russians wanted us to know who was behind it


Time for NATO to remind the Russians that an attack on one member of NATO is considered an attack on all members

[BillyStubbsTears]

It’s not a question of the Ambassador admitting anything. That is the sort of meeting where one Govt can privately lay out to the representative of another one, what the likely consequences will be. So that both sides can make informed decisions on their next steps.

Been listening to PM on R4 on the way home tonight. They had the head of the U.K. RT organisation. He sounded like he was horribly stressed. He clearly speaks English fluently but he was frequently spent several seconds trying to form sentences. That was worrying to say the least.

And while I agree with the substance of every point that Corbyn raised in his reply to May (Russian gangster money in the City, donations from Russian oligarchs to the Tory party) I have to say that I thought he badly misjudged the tone by making no criticism of Putin but instead trying to turn this into a party political issue. There are times when that is appropriate but this doesn’t feel like one. Regardless of political difference, there are times when you have to decide which side of a big issue you are on. May had just effectively accused Russia of an act of war (although she very carefully called it “unlawful use of force”) against the UK. That is the sort of language you hear in Parliament maybe once a generation. No PM is going to use those words except in very serious circumstances and that highlights just how dangerous the current situation is. In those circumstances, replying with party political attacks is, I would say, a big mistake.

[Filo]

I would hope if not already there, one of our Submarines carrying our Nuclear deterrent is heading full steam to the Baltic Sea

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just thinking about how weak our position is here and how clever a game Putin may be playing.

He’s just authorised an utterly brazen attack on IK soil. No attempt to disguise it. The sort of thing that effectively is saying “Yeah? And what the f**k are YOU going to do about it?”

In normal times “you” would include the USA and a whole string of European allies. The response would be hard and coordinated.

But these aren’t normal times. Putin has kompromat on the tenant of the White House. So it’s likely that we’ll get little if any support from the USA for stern action. And in Europe, there’s a string of pro-Russian politicians either in power (Hungary, Poland) or supporting Governments (Austria, Italy on its way). Or politicians like Macron who want to have cordial relations with Russia. And of course we don’t have a lot of credit to call on in Europe at the moment.

If you were going to test the resolve of a country, what better time to do it?

[Filo]

Just thinking about how weak our position is here and how clever a game Putin may be playing.

He’s just authorised an utterly brazen attack on IK soil. No attempt to disguise it. The sort of thing that effectively is saying “Yeah? And what the f**k are YOU going to do about it?”

In normal times “you” would include the USA and a whole string of European allies. The response would be hard and coordinated.

But these aren’t normal times. Putin has kompromat on the tenant of the White House. So it’s likely that we’ll get little if any support from the USA for stern action. And in Europe, there’s a string of pro-Russian politicians either in power (Hungary, Poland) or supporting Governments (Austria, Italy on its way). Or politicians like Macron who want to have cordial relations with Russia. And of course we don’t have a lot of credit to call on in Europe at the moment.

If you were going to test the resolve of a country, what better time to do it?

But as I've already said NATO members are treaty bound to come to our aid, if they don't that will be the end of NATO, Trump really dors n't have much say in it really, get behind us or throw the world into the abyss of a potential WW3

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

No, because May is not so stupid as to declare this an act of war. So there’s no obligation on NATO countries to do anything.

But in normal times, this sort of attack would lead to massive, concerted diplomatic and economic sanctions by our allies. In today’s atmosphere that’s much less certain. We might find ourselves very much in our own.

Think about it this way. Russia don’t want a shooting war with us. But it is very much in Putin’s interests to marginalise us. His strategy is to bully countries one by one. In normal times he wouldn’t be able to isolate and bully us. But these aren’t normal times. Diplomatically, we’re in our weakest strategic position for a very, very long time.

Now do you see why I was repeatedly pointing plot two years ago why Putin was very much in wanting to vote Leave?

[Filo]

Is a chemical attack on NATO soil not an attack on all NATO soil?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes. Of course. But it will NOT be called a formal act of war because the consequences of making that move are way too dangerous. That’s why May used the strongest language she could short of callingbit an act of war.

[Sprotyrover]

I would hope if not already there, one of our Submarines carrying our Nuclear deterrent is heading full steam to the Baltic Sea

The Baltic has an average depth of 55 feet the deepest part is off Sweden at 1500 feet!

[Filo]

Yes. Of course. But it will NOT be called a formal act of war because the consequences of making that move are way too dangerous. That’s why May used the strongest language she could short of callingbit an act of war.

That did n't stop the last Country (America) invoking article IV after 9/11

[Sprotyrover]

Oh an d by the way they have hundreds of cruise missiles which can be fired at the UK from their own Baltic Waters and they can hit roughly 60% of our land mass!

[Filo]

I would hope if not already there, one of our Submarines carrying our Nuclear deterrent is heading full steam to the Baltic Sea

The Baltic has an average depth of 55 feet the deepest part is off Sweden at 1500 feet!

The average depth is 55m (180ft)

[Sprotyrover]

I would hope if not already there, one of our Submarines carrying our Nuclear deterrent is heading full steam to the Baltic Sea

The Baltic has an average depth of 55 feet the deepest part is off Sweden at 1500 feet!

Not even dep enough for any of our conventional nuclear subs let alone a 16,000 tonner
The average depth is 55m (180ft)

[Filo]

I would hope if not already there, one of our Submarines carrying our Nuclear deterrent is heading full steam to the Baltic Sea

The Baltic has an average depth of 55 feet the deepest part is off Sweden at 1500 feet!

Not even dep enough for any of our conventional nuclear subs let alone a 16,000 tonner
The average depth is 55m (180ft)

OK then, lets ditch the Baltic and go to the Norwegian Sea, thats still close enough to Launch a strike on Moscow if needed

[turnbull for england]

OK it might not be deep but hardly a ditch...

[wilts rover]

Is a chemical attack on NATO soil not an attack on all NATO soil?

The nuclear attack on Litvinenko wasn't so why would this be?

Russia supplies 40% of Europe's gas and that will focus a few European government's minds before they take any action. As will the £1.5 billion pounds that is supposedly coming into the City of London each month from Russia.

It's bonkers talking of military action alone. Do you not remember what the Defence Chief said just before Christmas on how easy it would be for them to cut the North Sea power cables and cripple us - whilst there is nothing we can do about it. And blow up the North Sea gas rigs at the same time probably.

What we should be doing is implementing the Magnitsky Act (this is what Corbyn was referring to as the Tories have repeatedly blocked it) making moves to freeze the bank accounts of these Russian oligarchs and gangsters, seizing their property assets, including football clubs, held across the country, and revoking any British citizenship.

That will hurt a lot of people most of whom must be friends or allies of Putin or they wouldn't be where they are today.

Since Litvinenko we have not so much as turned a blind eye to Putin more encouraged him by the use of the City as a Russian money-laundering centre. If we dont clamp down on that now we never will.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes. Of course. But it will NOT be called a formal act of war because the consequences of making that move are way too dangerous. That’s why May used the strongest language she could short of callingbit an act of war.

That did n't stop the last Country (America) invoking article IV after 9/11

That wasn’t running the risk of a peer-to-peer military conflict...

[Filo]

Is a chemical attack on NATO soil not an attack on all NATO soil?

The nuclear attack on Litvinenko wasn't so why would this be?

Russia supplies 40% of Europe's gas and that will focus a few European government's minds before they take any action. As will the £1.5 billion pounds that is supposedly coming into the City of London each month from Russia.

It's bonkers talking of military action alone. Do you not remember what the Defence Chief said just before Christmas on how easy it would be for them to cut the North Sea power cables and cripple us - whilst there is nothing we can do about it. And blow up the North Sea gas rigs at the same time probably.

What we should be doing is implementing the Magnitsky Act (this is what Corbyn was referring to as the Tories have repeatedly blocked it) making moves to freeze the bank accounts of these Russian oligarchs and gangsters, seizing their property assets, including football clubs, held across the country, and revoking any British citizenship.

That will hurt a lot of people most of whom must be friends or allies of Putin or they wouldn't be where they are today.

Since Litvinenko we have not so much as turned a blind eye to Putin more encouraged him by the use of the City as a Russian money-laundering centre. If we dont clamp down on that now we never will.

I'm not saying we should launch a military attack, I'm saying that our Nuclear deterrent should be in a strategic location close by in case  the need arises to strike Moscow quickly should they attack us. Surely they would n't dare attack us, NATO would wipe russia off the map

[Dutch Uncle]

Yes. Of course. But it will NOT be called a formal act of war because the consequences of making that move are way too dangerous. That’s why May used the strongest language she could short of callingbit an act of war.

From the BBC:

Downing Street said the incident was not an "article five" matter - a reference to Nato rules which say an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all.

Just as you were saying BST

[Dutch Uncle]

I'm not saying we should launch a military attack, I'm saying that our Nuclear deterrent should be in a strategic location close by in case  the need arises to strike Moscow quickly should they attack us.

I would guess that would have already happened quite a while ago Filo

[albie]

BST

Not wiping his arse but a duty of care comes with the territory. Normal practise in such circumstances.

It is interesting to consider previous history in this field:
https://theconversation.com/sergei-skripal-and-the-long-history-of-assassination-attempts-abroad-93021

The task is to prevent this from becoming the new normal. Weak governments in weak countries are not best placed to force the issue.

Wilts gets to the real dealbreaker....Russian gas.
The UK needs a secure independent supply before risking Putin giving us a cold winter next year.

May would be out the door in quick time if Russia chose to deny supply.
Putin knows this and so does she!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

I’m sure one of our Trident-armed submarines is always in a position to strike Russia. There’d be little point to it otherwise. Given that the missiles have a reported range of 7,500miles they could be in the Indian Ocean and still be viable.

But this isn’t going to result in anything remotely close to that sort of situation. Unless there’s a series of crazy miscalculations.

Dutch’s post makes that clear. This isn’t something that anyone would risk going to war for. But it’s still very serious. It’s about Putin showing how he intends to bully us in future.

It’s at times like these that you wish you were part of a strong economic grouping that could collectively apply pressure to the bully.

One thing’s nailed on. Unless there’s a big back down from Russia (difficult to imagine) then there’s going to be big pressure on England to pull out of the World Cup. I don’t see how an organisation with the 2nd in line to the throne as its president could possibly allow its team to play in a country which had been publicly accused by the PM of effectively committing an act of war against us.

[Bentley Bullet]

This is a serious question and not one that is taking the piss or suggesting a political preference. Would Corbyn handle the situation better than May?

[Sprotyrover]

So the bio chemical weapon used in the attack was military grade and originated in Iron Cutain Soviet Union.
When the Soviet Union ended The Ukraine,Belorussian and Kazakhstan all inherited arsenals of Nuclear, chemical and biological weapons .which apparently were ALL returned to Russia,cough cough cough!
Now then who amongst that lot has a very active Axe to grind against the Russians?
I wouldn't be surprised if we also didn't acquire some, how else can we so positively identify it.
Skrypal himself might have sourced it for us.
I think we need to wind our necks in and stop the hysterical speculation.
And silly comments about sending totally inappropriate responses don't help either.

[rabjohns]

  Filo, we may expel a couple of low ranking embassy officials and make it out to be a big thing, which interestingly we did in the early 70s I think.
   Wilson expelled 90 odd in retaliation for them catching our spy ring, they included some men from Barnby Dun who were accused of spying on the R.A.F. at Bawtry headquarters, and who were supposed to work for a plant importing firm called Umo plant on the Pilkingtons site.
  They seemed to be decent lads to me, shows what I know.

  Filo, we may expel a couple of low ranking embassy officials and make it out to be a big thing, which interestingly we did in the early 70s I think.
   Wilson expelled 90 odd in retaliation for them catching our spy ring, they included some men from Barnby Dun who were accused of spying on the R.A.F. at Bawtry headquarters, and who were supposed to work for a plant importing firm called Umo plant on the Pilkingtons site.
  They seemed to be decent lads to me, shows what I know.

I was led to believe they were importing chassis that were compatible to a light Russian tank.