0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Quote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
No I didn't DBR.I'm predicting how many points will be required for each final position. Not who will get that many.
Quote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 08:57:01 amQuote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?Also ending up with pretty much the exact same predicted points for 1st and 2nd!BST - I know this generally works well as a yardstick, but how well has it worked in previous years when you’ve done this? Has it tended to end up within a handful of points from what you predicted or are there any extreme outliers?
Quote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 08:57:01 amQuote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST’s predictions. So don’t make something of nothing ok thank you.
Quote from: Campsall rover on March 07, 2021, 02:07:33 pmQuote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 08:57:01 amQuote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don’t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST’s predictions. So don’t make something of nothing ok thank you. It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.
Quote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 06:13:47 pmQuote from: Campsall rover on March 07, 2021, 02:07:33 pmQuote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 08:57:01 amQuote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don%u2019t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST%u2019s predictions. So don%u2019t make something of nothing ok thank you. It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.Now you've gone and done it.
Quote from: Campsall rover on March 07, 2021, 02:07:33 pmQuote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 08:57:01 amQuote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don%u2019t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST%u2019s predictions. So don%u2019t make something of nothing ok thank you. It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.
Quote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 08:57:01 amQuote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don%u2019t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST%u2019s predictions. So don%u2019t make something of nothing ok thank you.
Quote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don%u2019t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?
I love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don%u2019t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.
Love BSTs predictions, always give a good prediction of how things will pan out.
Quote from: Janso on March 07, 2021, 07:40:29 pmQuote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 06:13:47 pmQuote from: Campsall rover on March 07, 2021, 02:07:33 pmQuote from: i_ateallthepies on March 07, 2021, 08:57:01 amQuote from: Campsall rover on March 06, 2021, 08:00:53 pmI love your annual points predictions BST but it is actually impossible to predict with much degree of accuracy. Points already won is never an accurate guide to future points gained.Historically the champions need between 87 to 95 points 2nd place between 83 to 90There is a large difference required in different seasons I think 88/89 points will win the league this season. It is so tight at the top I would be surprised if more was required 2nd place I reckon 86/87 maximum. No science in this just my hunch because teams are taking points off each other.Don%u2019t see anyone winning more than 10 games that remain. Think as we have more to play than most we have the best chance of achieving over 10.Top 6 in no particular order the 6 that are there now. Take your pick for top 2 Who wants it most. We have a very good chance. 10 away games makes it tough.Do you see the irony in your post, Campsall; pouring scorn on the worth of making predictions and then making your own predictions in the very same post?Sorry where was I pouring scorn on predictions? I just said it is impossible to be very accurate. That is not pouring scorn.I make predictions all the time. I said I enjoy reading BST%u2019s predictions. So don%u2019t make something of nothing ok thank you. It's there in your very first line, Campsall. There for all to see.Now you've gone and done it.Janso you are such a creep. All you do is hide behind everyones posts with your snide comments. So easy to hide behind a keyboard. Grow up for heavens sake.
Update after the latest matches1st - 90 892nd - 86 873rd - 82 834th - 81 805th - 81 726th - 76 697th - 73 698th - 71 689th - 70 6810th - 69 6611th - 67 6612th - 64 65Looks like the method has fallen apart for places 5-7. I'm not sure I believe these latest figures. I find it very difficult to believe that 69 points will secure 6th place. The current figures come about because several clubs have had woeful recent form having played a lot of matches against other top 10 sides recently, but many of those (us, Ipswich, Lincoln, Oxford, Portsmouth) have (on paper) much easier runs coming. And the predictor is very sensitive to upcoming results this year. If any two of us, Lincoln, Ipswich, Gillingham or Charlton were to win this weekend, it'd push the prediction for 6 place up to about 73-4 and would mean that there'd actually been little change from the original predictions for nearly all the positions. Be interesting to see what it looks like in another week or so.If the current predictor IS right, it'd make for a hair raising last week of the season with potentially 8 sides in contention for the last two play-off spots.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 25, 2021, 12:30:50 amUpdate after the latest matches1st - 90 892nd - 86 873rd - 82 834th - 81 805th - 81 726th - 76 697th - 73 698th - 71 689th - 70 6810th - 69 6611th - 67 6612th - 64 65Looks like the method has fallen apart for places 5-7. I'm not sure I believe these latest figures. I find it very difficult to believe that 69 points will secure 6th place. The current figures come about because several clubs have had woeful recent form having played a lot of matches against other top 10 sides recently, but many of those (us, Ipswich, Lincoln, Oxford, Portsmouth) have (on paper) much easier runs coming. And the predictor is very sensitive to upcoming results this year. If any two of us, Lincoln, Ipswich, Gillingham or Charlton were to win this weekend, it'd push the prediction for 6 place up to about 73-4 and would mean that there'd actually been little change from the original predictions for nearly all the positions. Be interesting to see what it looks like in another week or so.If the current predictor IS right, it'd make for a hair raising last week of the season with potentially 8 sides in contention for the last two play-off spots.Just stumbled on this prediction thread, which I'd totally forgotten about in the despondency over how we finished the season.I'd said that the predictions tend to bounce around a bit and to do this seriously, you need to see what the average prediction is for any given position. But I didn't update this after late March because I really did not want to look at the table. Going back and seeing what the average of the first two iterations were, and comparing it against the final points is interesting through.First number - Final league position2nd number - average of predictions.3rd number - actual final points for that position.4th number - how much the prediction was out.1st - 89.5 89 -0.52nd - 86.5 87 -0.53rd - 82.5 80 -2.54th - 80.5 77 +3.55th - 76.5 77 -0.56th - 72.5 74 -1.57th - 71 74 -38th - 69.5 72 -2.59th - 69 69 010th - 67.5 67 +0.511th - 66.5 67 -0.512th - 64.5 66 -1.5On average, the predictions were right to within less than 1.5 points.Props to Gaz for this post.https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=280315.msg1039714#msg1039714