Brexit Negotiations

[Glyn_Wigley]

Well, there's another week of £350m that Boris owes us.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42194382

I can't help but wonder whose pockets that extra £133mill fell into.

[MachoMadness]

David Davis has reportedly threatened to quit if Damian Green is sacked for having porn on his work computer. What a bizarre hill to die on. Strikes me that Davis is looking for any way to get out of Dodge while saving face. Good luck with that Dave.

[Glyn_Wigley]

And May is so weak she can do bugger all about it.

[Hounslowrover]

David Davis has reportedly threatened to quit if Damian Green is sacked for having porn on his work computer. What a bizarre hill to die on. Strikes me that Davis is looking for any way to get out of Dodge while saving face. Good luck with that Dave.

Agree with this, especially as he needs to provide the Brexit Committee with his economic assessment papers, which may not exist in the detail he has previously mentioned or even boasted about.

[Donny Dub]

Well now there’s been a meeting in Dublin today between Leo Varadkar (Irish PM) and Donald Tusk (EU Brusselsj that has really put a spanner in the works.  If Ireland is not happy with the Ireland border arrangements offered by UK as part of the Brexit process, Ireland can veto the negotiations with the full support of the EU.  This is a major dilemma for the British because Dublin does not want a return of the hard border between the jurisdictions that was removed following the Good Friday Agreement but it’s hard to see NI leaving the customs union with the rest of the UK without proper border controls in place.  This could undo the entire process and lead to an abandonment of the Brexit.

[Donnywolf]

Well now there’s been a meeting in Dublin today between Leo Varadkar (Irish PM) and Donald Tusk (EU Brusselsj that has really put a spanner in the works.  If Ireland is not happy with the Ireland border arrangements offered by UK as part of the Brexit process, Ireland can veto the negotiations with the full support of the EU.  This is a major dilemma for the British because Dublin does not want a return of the hard border between the jurisdictions that was removed following the Good Friday Agreement but it’s hard to see NI leaving the customs union with the rest of the UK without proper border controls in place.  This could undo the entire process and lead to an abandonment of the Brexit.

...and the DUP will have a massive say in the outcome(s) on the Border question and of course they "prop up" the Tories who cant get a vote on anything through Parliament without them. All that power with so little share of the vote (I seem to have read that before somewhere)

Oh yes .... I remember (just the top post)
https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=262636.msg709588#msg709588

I hope the entire process does ultimately fail and B****t (sorry I never type / use / speak that word if I can avoid it) is abandoned

However there may be a simpler path. All those who preached democracy and said " we have voted to leave the EU - get over it " would surely not mind if there were suddenly another democratic movement which amassed 18 Million people who all signed a petition (or similar) wishing to abandon the move to leave the EU with immediate effect

I am convinced (guessing) that at least that many of the current electorate - who were lied to by Boris's Bus initially - voted to get control of our borders etc - and have watched as this car crash has evolved day by day since would now just say f**k it !


 

[Pancho Regan]

I confess I haven’t read all the many posts on this thread, but one simple question screams out at me.

If those who voted to leave the EU had been told we would face a bill of £50 Billion for leaving, would this have affected their decision?

Surely it would have?

I don’t recall the prospect of an exit bill of this magnitude ever being part of the discussions during the referendum.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I confess I haven’t read all the many posts on this thread, but one simple question screams out at me.

If those who voted to leave the EU had been told we would face a bill of £50 Billion for leaving, would this have affected their decision?

Surely it would have?

I don’t recall the prospect of an exit bill of this magnitude ever being part of the discussions during the referendum.

They were told about the financial obligations. But then they were also told that this was 'Project Fear' and to ignore it.

[RedJ]

These were the people that were fed up of listening to the experts, remember.

[wilts rover]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

[Glyn_Wigley]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

Ah, but how many of those were happy for other people to reap the effects of a worse economy and didn't think it would affect them? I wonder what they think now that reality is finally here?

[BillyStubbsTears]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

So follow that to its logical conclusion. 20% of Leave voters said that leaving the EU wouldn’t be the right thing to do if it meant significant damage to the economy, with a further 19% saying Don’t Know (and they STILL have a vote...)

One assumes that all the Remain voters think it would be madness to leave the EU if it meant the economy would tank.

So that would mean that, of those who voted last year, 58% would think we shouldn’t leave the EU if it badly damaged the economy, 32% think we should with 10% unable to act as sentient beings.

Outside Patrick Minford’s flat-earth domain, there’s barely a serious economist who thinks that Brexitvwill do anything other than cause seriously weaker economic performance. It’s clearly already started. Those facts need ramming into people’s heads everytime you speak to them. 

[hoolahoop]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

Like BST , I too cannot see how you have made a reasonable argument for leaving from what you have presented to us as statistical evidence for Brexiting. ?

I'm bemused that the devastation that Brexit will cause to every sector of our society , especially the crazy economics that is espoused by the foolish to the foolish is getting through to you as well. I always thought of you as someone that makes " reasoned " arguments - why on this nonsense do you disagree with obvious common sense ?

Brexit has turned people, from both sides incidentally, into strange human beings. Those that wanted and voted for Brexit - will get damaged the most - it's fecking bizarre !

Welcome to the start of ....Project REALITY

[Donnywolf]

Br-eality .....  as it is now known as !

[hoolahoop]

Will it still be a .........BRE-EZE ?

[SydneyRover]

David Davis has reportedly threatened to quit if Damian Green is sacked for having porn on his work computer. What a bizarre hill to die on. Strikes me that Davis is looking for any way to get out of Dodge while saving face. Good luck with that Dave.

Davis and Boris are intellectual microbes and it's time for those in Britain to voice their opposition to the appalling governance that will see the country as a European outsider cut off from the richest vein of trade and culture in the world. We are edging ever closer to the point where Europe will take the decision out of our hands and make it for us.

[wilts rover]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

Like BST , I too cannot see how you have made a reasonable argument for leaving from what you have presented to us as statistical evidence for Brexiting. ?

Sorry Hoola & BST, why do you think my post is a reasoned argument for leaving? It's a link to a UGov survey about people's attitudes on Brexit and has no argument from me about leaving in it whatsoever - reasoned or otherwise.

This is the actual poll, again apologies it was August 2017 not last year. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/britain-nation-brexit-extremists/

People are saying because of the economic forecasts that those who voted leave are changing their mind or regretting the situation. A more recent UGov poll does show that, but its very small, most people who voted leave would still vote leave however catastrophic the economic consequences. Perhaps they are bluffing or deluding themselves - or a looking forward to a low regulated, tax haven, I don't know, but thats what the polls show.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/

[SydneyRover]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

Like BST , I too cannot see how you have made a reasonable argument for leaving from what you have presented to us as statistical evidence for Brexiting. ?

Sorry Hoola & BST, why do you think my post is a reasoned argument for leaving? It's a link to a UGov survey about people's attitudes on Brexit and has no argument from me about leaving in it whatsoever - reasoned or otherwise.

This is the actual poll, again apologies it was August 2017 not last year. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/britain-nation-brexit-extremists/

People are saying because of the economic forecasts that those who voted leave are changing their mind or regretting the situation. A more recent UGov poll does show that, but its very small, most people who voted leave would still vote leave however catastrophic the economic consequences. Perhaps they are bluffing or deluding themselves - or a looking forward to a low regulated, tax haven, I don't know, but thats what the polls show.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/

The number of people required to change their vote in a new referendum is a pretty small %age and I don't think they are bluffing or deluding themselves I don't think the majority of those that voted for Wrexit have read or cared to understand what the vote would really mean and the downward spiral that Britain is now facing.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

Why do you think I think your post is a reasoned argument for leaving?

I was simply following the logic of the link that you posted.

It pretty clearly shows that, if people understand that Brexit will cause the country serious economic harm, there is a large majority in the country against Brexit.

The fact that 60% of Leave voters would still support Brexit is irrelevant. There’s no need for EVERY Leave supporter to see the light. Just enough of them. And so your opening gambit “You are deluding yourself chaps(sic)” doesn’t make sense.

[Donnywolf]

Have a look at todays Daily Fail - because although NOT a Referendum but a "snap shot" the majority "polled" would support a second Referendum once the "deal" has been done and a list of "what it means for us" has been produced

I personally hope that an independent body issues the 10 or so major points rather that all the s**t we put up with before the Referendum and that IF and it is a big IF the people have changes their minds after seeing "the facts" that if the second vote says stay IN the EU that the original Leavers see that that decision TOO has been democratically arrived at.

[hoolahoop]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

Like BST , I too cannot see how you have made a reasonable argument for leaving from what you have presented to us as statistical evidence for Brexiting. ?

Sorry Hoola & BST, why do you think my post is a reasoned argument for leaving? It's a link to a UGov survey about people's attitudes on Brexit and has no argument from me about leaving in it whatsoever - reasoned or otherwise.

This is the actual poll, again apologies it was August 2017 not last year. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/britain-nation-brexit-extremists/

People are saying because of the economic forecasts that those who voted leave are changing their mind or regretting the situation. A more recent UGov poll does show that, but its very small, most people who voted leave would still vote leave however catastrophic the economic consequences. Perhaps they are bluffing or deluding themselves - or a looking forward to a low regulated, tax haven, I don't know, but thats what the polls show.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/

Still can't see how you haven't accounted for the 39% of Leavers who feel the price is not worth paying for the economic collapse or at best slow decline.

Do you seriously think that we would still leave the EU ?

[wilts rover]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

Like BST , I too cannot see how you have made a reasonable argument for leaving from what you have presented to us as statistical evidence for Brexiting. ?

Sorry Hoola & BST, why do you think my post is a reasoned argument for leaving? It's a link to a UGov survey about people's attitudes on Brexit and has no argument from me about leaving in it whatsoever - reasoned or otherwise.

This is the actual poll, again apologies it was August 2017 not last year. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/britain-nation-brexit-extremists/

People are saying because of the economic forecasts that those who voted leave are changing their mind or regretting the situation. A more recent UGov poll does show that, but its very small, most people who voted leave would still vote leave however catastrophic the economic consequences. Perhaps they are bluffing or deluding themselves - or a looking forward to a low regulated, tax haven, I don't know, but thats what the polls show.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/

Still can't see how you haven't accounted for the 39% of Leavers who feel the price is not worth paying for the economic collapse or at best slow decline.

Do you seriously think that we would still leave the EU ?

When have I ever said we should leave the EU?

[hoolahoop]

You are deluding yourself chaps. A good percentage of Brexiteers were and still are ideological obsessives with little or no interest in economic well being of the country. A survey last year found that 61% of people who voted leave thought having a significantly worse economy was a price worth paying for Brexit.

https://www.newstatesman.com/2017/08/yougov-research-brexit-proves-baby-boomers-hate-their-own-children

Like BST , I too cannot see how you have made a reasonable argument for leaving from what you have presented to us as statistical evidence for Brexiting. ?

Sorry Hoola & BST, why do you think my post is a reasoned argument for leaving? It's a link to a UGov survey about people's attitudes on Brexit and has no argument from me about leaving in it whatsoever - reasoned or otherwise.

This is the actual poll, again apologies it was August 2017 not last year. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/britain-nation-brexit-extremists/

People are saying because of the economic forecasts that those who voted leave are changing their mind or regretting the situation. A more recent UGov poll does show that, but its very small, most people who voted leave would still vote leave however catastrophic the economic consequences. Perhaps they are bluffing or deluding themselves - or a looking forward to a low regulated, tax haven, I don't know, but thats what the polls show.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/10/27/there-has-been-shift-against-brexit-public-still-t/

Still can't see how you haven't accounted for the 39% of Leavers who feel the price is not worth paying for the economic collapse or at best slow decline.

Do you seriously think that we would still leave the EU ?

When have I ever said we should leave the EU?

When have I ever suggested that is what you want personally , we are debating whether we are '' deluded '' not whether you voted Leave hence your quote of mine ....... '' Do you seriously think that we would still leave the EU ? ''. You were trying to back up the argument based on those statistics, did you ever think of those that NEVER voted last time probably wouldn't be so blase about chucking their vote away this time ?

Wilts I'm not interested in what YOU voted, however there is a huge difference between WOULD and SHOULD isn't there ?

[The Red Baron]

Personally I can't see a Second Referendum happening. For one thing, it would require a change of Government and for another it would require Labour to change policy and commit to a second referendum in their manifesto. I think they are unlikely to do that because they would consider it too much of a risk (also I don't think Corbyn would be in favour.)

The one issue that could bring down this Government is the Irish Border, and at the moment there appears to be no solution that suits all parties. It is possible that if we move to Trade Talks in January then that might provide a solution, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

There ISN’T a solution to the Irish Border issue. That’s the point. Davies is dissembling by saying that we need to know what the trade deal looks like before we can know how to deal with the Irish border. That’s Grade A bullshit, hiding the fact that no-one on the British side has a clue what to do.

Here’s the problem.

May has announced (her own decision - nothing in the Referendum or in any Parliamentary vote forced her) that we will leave both the Currency Union and the Single Market.

Since Ireland will stay in both, that means that there has to be customs and trade borders between the UK and Ireland.

But that will cause chaos in movement of goods and people between NI and Rep Ire, which now have strongly integrated economies.

So, you could make a special case of NI. Let it effectively stay inside the CU and SM. Then it could trade freely with Rep Ire. And the Customs and trade border would be between the island of Ireland and the island of Great Britain.

But the DUP won’t wear that because it hints at a slippery slope towards a United Ireland. And the DUP is shoring up this apology of a Govt.

Conclusion? The moment May announced we were leaving the CU and SM, she burned any chance of sorting out the Irish border question. Nothing that could possibly emerge from trade negotiations with the EU can alter the facts above.

An utter, stupid, avoidable mistake made by a Prime Minister who totally misunderstood how weak her position was.

[Glyn_Wigley]

It's the Irish Border problem that should highlight to everybody just how complicated these negotiations really are.

Here is a situation where absolutely everybody agrees with each other about what they want (ie a soft border) but still nothing has been decided upon after...how many months has it been?

And yet some people expect the negotiations where everybody actually disagree with other to be resolved by the end of two years.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way. There ARE two possible solutions to this.

1) Remain in the SM and CU. The Irish border issue then evaporates. As do most of the negative economic consequences of Brexit. It is a no-brainer. Except that May has painted herself into a corner and can’t do it. Of course, when her Govt collapses because the Irish veto any deal due to the Irish border problem being unresolved...

2) Face down the DUP and go for the united Irish market solution. And that is a direct line to para-military action from the Unionists returning with a vengeance.

[Glyn_Wigley]

TRB

There ISN’T a solution to the Irish Border issue. That’s the point. Davies is dissembling by saying that we need to know what the trade deal looks like before we can know how to deal with the Irish border. That’s Grade A bullshit, hiding the fact that no-one on the British side has a clue what to do.

Here’s the problem.

May has announced (her own decision - nothing in the Referendum or in any Parliamentary vote forced her) that we will leave both the Currency Union and the Single Market.

Since Ireland will stay in both, that means that there has to be customs and trade borders between the UK and Ireland.

But that will cause chaos in movement of goods and people between NI and Rep Ire, which now have strongly integrated economies.

So, you could make a special case of NI. Let it effectively stay inside the CU and SM. Then it could trade freely with Rep Ire. And the Customs and trade border would be between the island of Ireland and the island of Great Britain.

But the DUP won’t wear that because it hints at a slippery slope towards a United Ireland. And the DUP is shoring up this apology of a Govt.

Conclusion? The moment May announced we were leaving the CU and SM, she burned any chance of sorting out the Irish border question. Nothing that could possibly emerge from trade negotiations with the EU can alter the facts above.

An utter, stupid, avoidable mistake made by a Prime Minister who totally misunderstood how weak her position was.

Although May made the decision, I think it was the hard Brexiters in the Tory party twisting her arm behind the scenes and she had to announce it to keep them quiet, unite the party (*hollow laughter*) and get them to support her as Prime Minister.

[Glyn_Wigley]

2) Face down the DUP and go for the united Irish market solution. And that is a direct line to para-military action from the Unionists returning with a vengeance.

Who would the pro-Union paramilitaries target though? Surely they wouldn't be idiot enough to target those who didn't make the decision?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

You’re assuming there’s an economic logic to Unionism. At the bottom line, Unionism will always put sovereignty before economics. And so it would be horrific for the Unionists to see an Ireland that was economically unified and separate from GB working successfully. History suggests that the Unionists would take (Carson’s old threat) “all means possible” to thwart that outcome.