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Dickos.I have no recollection of stating that as definitive outcomes.I've just searched for that and found nothing. Can you point me to where I posted that?
Thank you.That first paragraph was a very stupid thing of me to say, because it didn't factor in the possibility of a sudden, and as yet still unexplained dip in cases after several weeks of consistent rises. I absolutely should not have said that. I've (hopefully) overestimated the peaks by a factor of 2.Now Dickos. Back to March last year. You were comparing the (then) low COVID numbers with a bad flu outbreak which kills 30,000 in a year. In fact we had that many deaths in 5 weeks in the spring.I had been warning that we were facing deaths in the hundreds of thousands or the biggest shock to society's behaviour since the War. You said that was "nonsense" and "OTT panicking".So yes, I was unduly pessimistic about this outbreak. But that pales into insignificance against the dangerously complacent attitudes you were showing 18 months ago. I erred on the pessimistic side. If I'd been right, the worst that would have happened is that we'd have needed to be a bit more cautious on the unlocking. I am delighted that for once things have turned out better than the pessimistic outlook.In March last year by contrast, those erring on the optimistic side woukd have led us into catastrophe if they had been listened to. I've yet to hear you hold up your hand and face up to how wrong you were then. Last point. The third paragraph you posted. I assume you know we hit over 100 deaths in a day before the end of July? As a 7 day average, we hit 100 deaths a day on 18 Aug (so, yeah, "mid" August rather than "early"). The daily deaths are still rising and are likely to stay above 100 for a while. Hopefully we won't see the deaths go to 2-300.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on August 29, 2021, 12:20:54 pmIn this current discussion, I've said, repeatedly, with evidence, that in MOST of America, the outbreak in terms of new cases is reasonably well under control. The overall USA numbers are not good and that is due to the fact that the Deep South is seeing an outbreak that is utterly out of control and has been allowed to get that way by insane libertarian policies from Trumpist state leaders. Every word of that is fact and supported by the evidence.But you are impossible to have an evidence-based discussion with. Because you decide your conclusion before you start. Then you look for any shred of evidence, however unrepresentative, to back that up, ignoring the mass of contradictory evidence. And when that fails you say "Well come back in 5 years and see. I'll be right then." Ignoring how utterly, totally, dangerously wrong you were when this all started. As dangerously wrong as attempting to convince everyone we would be having hundreds of thousands of cases by now and hundred of deaths. It’s a good job we knew it was codswallop otherwise we’d all be barricaded in our homes right now
In this current discussion, I've said, repeatedly, with evidence, that in MOST of America, the outbreak in terms of new cases is reasonably well under control. The overall USA numbers are not good and that is due to the fact that the Deep South is seeing an outbreak that is utterly out of control and has been allowed to get that way by insane libertarian policies from Trumpist state leaders. Every word of that is fact and supported by the evidence.But you are impossible to have an evidence-based discussion with. Because you decide your conclusion before you start. Then you look for any shred of evidence, however unrepresentative, to back that up, ignoring the mass of contradictory evidence. And when that fails you say "Well come back in 5 years and see. I'll be right then." Ignoring how utterly, totally, dangerously wrong you were when this all started.
Quote from: SydneyRover on August 30, 2021, 11:35:06 amQuote from: River Don on August 30, 2021, 11:15:07 amQuote from: big fat yorkshire pudding on August 30, 2021, 07:59:24 amActually this is right. The bigger threat to our safety long term is not 12 year olds but failing to vaccinate other countries. The better thing to do is provide other countries with vaccines, that's what most scientists claim.You can't say it's follow the science one way then not in another to suit your anti government agenda.It's a bit debatable. I know the argument is 12 to 15 year old are less affected by the virus, so instead send vaccines to those who need protection abroad. Fine.But if we want to significantly lower the circulation of the virus in this country, then we need a very high level of immunity to achieve herd immunity, then we need above 90% of the population vaccinated, in which case we need to vaccinated younger age groups.Given the choice of protecting more vulnerable people internationally or surpressing the spread of the virus in the UK, many in the medical community plump for the international option.Every wealthy country should be able to do both, pour money into vaccine manufacture, get their own population done afap and supply countries that struggle with cost.I think it's more a question of logistics. They can't manufacture the stuff fast enough and it takes time to build enough new facilities to increase capacity.
Quote from: River Don on August 30, 2021, 11:15:07 amQuote from: big fat yorkshire pudding on August 30, 2021, 07:59:24 amActually this is right. The bigger threat to our safety long term is not 12 year olds but failing to vaccinate other countries. The better thing to do is provide other countries with vaccines, that's what most scientists claim.You can't say it's follow the science one way then not in another to suit your anti government agenda.It's a bit debatable. I know the argument is 12 to 15 year old are less affected by the virus, so instead send vaccines to those who need protection abroad. Fine.But if we want to significantly lower the circulation of the virus in this country, then we need a very high level of immunity to achieve herd immunity, then we need above 90% of the population vaccinated, in which case we need to vaccinated younger age groups.Given the choice of protecting more vulnerable people internationally or surpressing the spread of the virus in the UK, many in the medical community plump for the international option.Every wealthy country should be able to do both, pour money into vaccine manufacture, get their own population done afap and supply countries that struggle with cost.
Quote from: big fat yorkshire pudding on August 30, 2021, 07:59:24 amActually this is right. The bigger threat to our safety long term is not 12 year olds but failing to vaccinate other countries. The better thing to do is provide other countries with vaccines, that's what most scientists claim.You can't say it's follow the science one way then not in another to suit your anti government agenda.It's a bit debatable. I know the argument is 12 to 15 year old are less affected by the virus, so instead send vaccines to those who need protection abroad. Fine.But if we want to significantly lower the circulation of the virus in this country, then we need a very high level of immunity to achieve herd immunity, then we need above 90% of the population vaccinated, in which case we need to vaccinated younger age groups.Given the choice of protecting more vulnerable people internationally or surpressing the spread of the virus in the UK, many in the medical community plump for the international option.
Actually this is right. The bigger threat to our safety long term is not 12 year olds but failing to vaccinate other countries. The better thing to do is provide other countries with vaccines, that's what most scientists claim.You can't say it's follow the science one way then not in another to suit your anti government agenda.
Bit better news this week deaths are down over 7days numbers up but not a lot and same with hospital admissions
Lots of (mainly perfectly legitimate) criticisms of the government re their actions in tackling this pandemic on this thread.But I think it's important to recognize who is mainly to blame for the current level of increasing cases and deaths and what may come over the winter both in terms of health outcomes plus any returns to restrictions on us all.And it's not the government.Statistic from Doncaster and Bassetlaw NHS Trust taken from this week's Free Press: 35 people are currently in intensive care with Covid - all 35 unvaccinated. Latest from the Zoe study: 70% of current symptomatic cases are in the unvaccinated.
Dickos.https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953155#msg953155People who were calling this bang on were talking "nonsense".There was no way a virus that at that very moment was killing one person in every 150 in the only unconstrained outbreak in Europe, was going to kill hundreds of thousands.Insulting to those who were actually thinking about what was going on. Smug complacency about the nightmare that was screaming towards us.https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953357#msg953357"End of the world panic figures". Comparison with flu Complacent. Belittling.https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276411.msg953222#msg953222"OTT panicking." Insulting. Complacent.https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=276372.msg953355#msg953355Dismissing how dangerous this was. I'd said that, uncontrolled, at the peak, 25,000 people a day would die. Right at that very moment, scaled for population, they were having an outbreak that severe in Lombardy. You dismissed the possibility. Smug. Complacent.Wrong at every step, when the consequences of people not taking the virus seriously were horrendous. Thousands of avoidable deaths. Tens of thousands of avoidable cases, leading to unnecessarily long lockdowns and economic damage. But not a flicker of self reflection.
Maybe our adults should step up first? 20% of adults in Doncaster have not had a jab, that's below the average.
Good to see Sydney's friends in the UK helping his country out. Exactly the type of thing that we should be doing.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-58431190
Lots of (mainly perfectly legitimate) criticisms of the government re their actions in tackling the pandemic on this thread.But I think it's important to recognize who is mainly to blame for the current increases in cases and deaths and what may come over the winter both in terms of health outcomes plus any returns to restrictions on us all.And it's not the government.Statistic from Doncaster and Bassetlaw NHS Trust taken from this week's Free Press: 35 people are currently in intensive care with Covid - all 35 unvaccinated. Latest from the Zoe study: 70% of current symptomatic cases are in the unvaccinated.
They couldn't prior to now. Because we hadn't ordered the vaccines suitable for 12-15 year olds. Most countries in the EU had the vaccine a while ago and have been vaccinating 12-15 year olds well before us. And these things happen. But it's a mistake that needs to be weighed in the balance when considering our overall vaccination programme performance.
Pfizer.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on September 03, 2021, 12:48:48 pmPfizer. But we have got them and have even given them away, so not convinced that's the reason.