Two points per game.

[drfchound]

As good as the points return has been over the last three games we still have a lot to do to secure a top six place.
We are currently with roughly one and a half points per game.
To secure a play off place teams usually have to average around one and three quarters of a point per game which means that, to achieve that level we need to get a return of two points per game over the remaining matches.
A tough call ?

[IDM]

That would give us 77 points - more than enough usually in a 46 game season.  In a 44 game season I expect 72 points may be enough..

Currently no club has got 2 points per game in this division..

[Campsall rover]

As good as the points return has been over the last three games we still have a lot to do to secure a top six place.
We are currently with roughly one and a half points per game.
To secure a play off place teams usually have to average around one and three quarters of a point per game which means that, to achieve that level we need to get a return of two points per game over the remaining matches.
A tough call ?

Always difficult one to call hound. Anything between 70 & 75 points is usually enough for 6th place.

So we would need 39 points from 23 games to get 70 & we would need 44 from 23 games to get 75.

I think if it’s to to the lower end of those figures we have a realistic chance.
2 points a game from here would mean 46 points from 23 which is a title winning performance over a whole season. From where we are now that would give us 77 points and a possible 4th place finish.
This year we only play 44 not 46 games so all those figures can be lowered by possibly 2

I think 72 points would get us 6th place this season, but i know no more than anyone else so it’s..........

Over to you BST i think this is your baby isn’t it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Something like 1.55-1.65 points per game is usually enough to secure 6th place. VERY rare that it's as high as 1.75.

The team that currently has the 6th best record (Fleetwood) is averaging 1.636 points per game. Interestingly, the third best team (Rotherham) is averaging only 1.708 PPG. If that continued over 46 games in a usual season, that would mean points totals of 75 to 79 points would secure the play off spots.

For this 44 game season, the figures would be 72-75 points. That suggests that we'll need 41+ points from the final 23 games. It's tough (equivalent to 82+ points over a full normal season) but not impossible. Say 12 wins, 5-6 draws and 5-6 defeats. We haven't had many streaky draws this season and we've had several that we really should have won. With a bit of strengthening, a bit of injury luck and a much easier second half to the season, it's doable. Not much room for error though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You read my mind CR...

[drfchound]

That would give us 77 points - more than enough usually in a 46 game season.  In a 44 game season I expect 72 points may be enough..

Currently no club has got 2 points per game in this division..

Well no, no one has two points per game as it stands but plenty are around 1.7 ppg or better.
We still have to up our points gathering to get among them and the others have points on the board and we have to win our games in hand.
Obviously it is doable but it will be tough going.

[adamtherover]

I find it hard to believe that after having a pretty piss poor last 3 months really, that if we win the games in hand we are.top 6, ?

[5 on Tour]

We would be 6th and if we win all 3 in hand, on the ones on 24, then only 1 point off the team currently 2nd.

[drfchound]

True but to do that we need to be more consistent than we are right now.
Hopefully the promised new players will strengthen us enough to manage it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I find it hard to believe that after having a pretty piss poor last 3 months really, that if we win the games in hand we are.top 6, ?

But it HASN'T been piss poor.

Over the past three months, our form is

P12 W4 D3 L5.

Not fantastic till you realise 4 of those 12 games have been against sides currently in the top 6, and 9 have been against sides in the top 13.

[Chris Black come back]

After 21 games in League One this season, we have 31 points.

While there is no direct read across as the seasons are of different length, after 21 games in League One under McCann last season we had 35 points.

In 2017/18 under Ferguson we had 23 points after 21 games in League One.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

It's OK doing points per game forecasts etc., but you'll see now a bit of movement. The tops teams were achieving two points per game quite comfortably until the run up to Christmas. Such as Sunderland, Portsmouth (maybe us) might start showing better form as others, Wycombe, Posh, Ipswich etc, might start wavering a bit.

When it comes to the run in and the last 10 games, anything can happen and normally does, so we're better off avoiding end of season predictions like the plague!

[drfchound]

DBR, I don’t think anyone is making end of season predictions mate.
Just discussing what we MIGHT need.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

DBR, I don’t think anyone is making end of season predictions mate.
Just discussing what we MIGHT need.

I know, but I can see it coming. It makes me nervous! We've got form in getting it wrong! 🙈

[5 on Tour]

After 21 games in League One this season, we have 31 points.

While there is no direct read across as the seasons are of different length, after 21 games in League One under McCann last season we had 35 points.

In 2017/18 under Ferguson we had 23 points after 21 games in League One.

Is there a stat to compare boredom under Ferguson to now?

[drfchound]

DBR, I don’t think anyone is making end of season predictions mate.
Just discussing what we MIGHT need.

I know, but I can see it coming. It makes me nervous! We've got form in getting it wrong! 🙈

Ha, I know what you mean.
It was a bit like the couple of posts last week telling us how bad Sunderland’s away record was prior to our match with them.
Talk about tempting fate !!!!

[steve@dcfd]

Let’s win our next game against Shrewsbury on the 7th Jan then we will be in either 10th or 11th.
We will played 22 games and be on 34 pts.

We would be 2pts behind Fleetwood and on the same games has  they are in 7th and will not play before we do in the league.


No there’s no boredom stat but there’s one that shows
On the same games as GM las t season we are 4pts behind on the same games.
With a forward line that can’t compare to last season.

[Campsall rover]

I find it hard to believe that after having a pretty piss poor last 3 months really, that if we win the games in hand we are.top 6, ?

But it HASN'T been piss poor.

Over the past three months, our form is

P12 W4 D3 L5.

Not fantastic till you realise 4 of those 12 games have been against sides currently in the top 6, and 9 have been against sides in the top 13.

Last 9 games W3 D3 L3

Previous 3 to those 9 games we beat Bristol R convincingly at home lost convincingly at Oxford and outplayed Pompey at home but managed to lose it.

So it’s not been as bad as someone wants to tell us it has been. Especially with the injuries to John, Blair, Ennis & Stirling, also the 3 match suspension to Anderson.

3 Decent additions in January and better luck on the injury front and exciting times may lay ahead.

Although you never ever turn down the opportunity of promotion, I do think we will be much stronger next season and it would be better for our Championship prospects if we got promoted with a squad that didn’t need major surgery as it may do this summer if we went up.

Another year in this league, winning on a regular basis with also another years experience for the players behind them. We have 11 of our best 14 players (including 4 loanees who we may not get to keep) aged between 20 & 26
Only Taylor, Blair & Copps being older.

So with the right recruitment in the next 3 windows after this one, we will be very much stronger going into a very tough Championship.

Although i won’t be disappointed of course with a another successful trip to the twin towers in May, i also won’t be distraught at finishing outside the play offs this season.

[Alan Southstand]

That stat comparison about last year’s team and this year’s gives us much food for thought. When you consider this season’s side has no Rowe, Kane, Wilks, Marquis and we’ve not had even Blair for a large chunk of this season, so far, DM has done remarkably well with the tools he’s had to work with (and I don’t use ‘tools’ in a derogatory way).

We lost an awful lot of experience in the summer and it would have been handy to have had some of that available to the manager this season, especially in games where we have thrown points away, like the Wimbledon away game. Today’s gutsy win sets the bar much higher than what we witnessed on Boxing Day and there can be no excuses from any player, in the squad, in future games. When the going gets tough, the tough get going, so they say and it’s an apt saying for that performance and attitude shown. We have to keep that attitude now and take it into all future fixtures and, with help from a few new incomers, we may just see a much more positive end to this season.

[dickos1]

There’s no getting away from we had a very bad run of form from the beginning of September to Boxing Day.
It was relegation form.

But we’ve picked up 6 points from these 3 games which is a great return.

People keep saying stuff like it’s even better when you consider we’ve played teams at the top.
But look at the stats we have done far better against the sides in the top half than we have against sides in the bottom half.
So I’d fancy our chances against the top sides rather than those struggling as we’ve been poor against them