Brexit Benefits Log

[BigH]

There is no economic benefit to be had from Brexit. This has been pretty much agreed by every single economist who has opined on the matter. Even Professor Patrick Minford, the only dissenting voice among economists, has gone quiet; he hasn't peddled his arguments for years. So I don't understand why people quote individual economic or commercial stats as a benefit. It's a bit like the jobs watch they used to have on ITV News in the 80s when every new job was reported but we had unemployment of 3 million. A pointless exercise.

The one advantage, or benefit if you will, is that we now have greater control over immigration. It might be notional, that is we may need to increase immigration to enable parts of our economy to function, but it is our government's decision as to how it exercises control.

In a nutshell, Brexit has boiled down to a trade-off; trading future economic prosperity for greater control over immigration.

Here endeth the lesson

[ravenrover]

  Genuine question Kato, is everything that is bad because of Brexit, and everything that is good in spite of it?
  Seeing as how the Americans especially see the UK as their preferred place to invest their money in business rather than in the EU slowly but surely the benefits of being out of an undemocratic bureaucracy is becoming evident, and the hell on Earth the UK was  predicted to be after our exit has not materialised.
  Please tell me if you know anyone whose life  has been directly affected by the fact we have come out of the EU.

Mine has, much more difficult to take our dog on holiday to France with us

[selby]

Macron's fault.

[Glyn_Wigley]

So if we were still in the EU ravenrover would still find it just as difficult?

[SydneyRover]

Recruiting truck drivers

[selby]

  This trouble with getting truck drivers, is it because the country is Busier than it was in the EU? and if we get thousands of truck drivers does that mean we have thousands of trucks on the our already overcrowded polluted roads with trucks?
  Just stand on any motorway bridge and tell me there is a shortage.

[wilts rover]

  Genuine question Kato, is everything that is bad because of Brexit, and everything that is good in spite of it?
  Seeing as how the Americans especially see the UK as their preferred place to invest their money in business rather than in the EU slowly but surely the benefits of being out of an undemocratic bureaucracy is becoming evident, and the hell on Earth the UK was  predicted to be after our exit has not materialised.
  Please tell me if you know anyone whose life  has been directly affected by the fact we have come out of the EU.

So if nothing has changed - the EU didn't rule our lives then?

[wilts rover]

and - everybody in Northern Ireland is the answer to your question.

[ravenrover]

Macron's fault.

I think you should look at it a little deeper then Selby if you think that

[SydneyRover]

I'm waiting for selby to share with us the financial tips from the brexit bonanza that will see money pouring into DRFC coffers.

[Glyn_Wigley]

  This trouble with getting truck drivers, is it because the country is Busier than it was in the EU? and if we get thousands of truck drivers does that mean we have thousands of trucks on the our already overcrowded polluted roads with trucks?
  Just stand on any motorway bridge and tell me there is a shortage.

If it comes to you on a motorway bridge or the Freight Haulage Association telling me whether there's a shortage or not, it's not you I'm going to believe.

[BillyStubbsTears]

"The country is busier than it was in the EU".

How do some people function in the real world?

[Glyn_Wigley]

They function by making shit up in an attempt to be a WUM. It's a crap hobby but it's the only way they can cope.

[hstripes]

This thread is 37 pages of pure nonsense.

The decision to leave or stay in the EU was a long term one. Anybody who believed that 5 years after our departure we'd either be in 1930s style economic penury (as predicted by Osbourne and Cameron) or basking in economic 'sunlit uplands' is a fool.

The key question of the referendum was whether we'd be happier (and probably but not necessarily more prosperous) long term living in a free, democratic, independent state or in a centralized, undemocratic but more politically stable EU with shared economic risks.

Of course there have been short term downsides and upsides through rupturing our political and economic status quo but arguing over each individually in a competition of one-upmanship is both pointless and misses the wider long term point.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The economic consequences of leaving the Single Market that we're seeing now in the short-term are very much long-term in nature.

[hstripes]

The economic consequences of leaving the Single Market that we're seeing now in the short-term are very much long-term in nature.

The real world is not quite so cut and dried as your statement suggests. SOME of the short term economic consequences of leaving the Single Market may be long term, covered in my comment re the EU's shared economic risk, but some (assuming you are wholly talking downsides) may be overcome long term through internal solutions, forging new alliances or indeed coming to specific, mutually beneficial agreements with the EU itself.

[SydneyRover]

This thread is 37 pages of pure nonsense.

The decision to leave or stay in the EU was a long term one. Anybody who believed that 5 years after our departure we'd either be in 1930s style economic penury (as predicted by Osbourne and Cameron) or basking in economic 'sunlit uplands' is a fool.

The key question of the referendum was whether we'd be happier (and probably but not necessarily more prosperous) long term living in a free, democratic, independent state or in a centralized, undemocratic but more politically stable EU with shared economic risks.

Of course there have been short term downsides and upsides through rupturing our political and economic status quo but arguing over each individually in a competition of one-upmanship is both pointless and misses the wider long term point.

Of the positive promises it was all to happen almost as soon as the ink dried, wasn't it? As far as gains are concerned there haven't been any because as everyone knows the UK hasn't made up for the losses incurred since the vote and is unlikely to do so if the pace and value of and at which trade deals are signed is to continue.

What you pose as the key question could be answered by anyone that was around before the UK joined, we were unlikely to get any more freedoms than those that were allowed then.

[hstripes]

This thread is 37 pages of pure nonsense.

The decision to leave or stay in the EU was a long term one. Anybody who believed that 5 years after our departure we'd either be in 1930s style economic penury (as predicted by Osbourne and Cameron) or basking in economic 'sunlit uplands' is a fool.

The key question of the referendum was whether we'd be happier (and probably but not necessarily more prosperous) long term living in a free, democratic, independent state or in a centralized, undemocratic but more politically stable EU with shared economic risks.

Of course there have been short term downsides and upsides through rupturing our political and economic status quo but arguing over each individually in a competition of one-upmanship is both pointless and misses the wider long term point.

Of the positive promises it was all to happen almost as soon as the ink dried, wasn't it? As far as gains are concerned there haven't been any because as everyone knows the UK hasn't made up for the losses incurred since the vote and is unlikely to do so if the pace and value of and at which trade deals are signed is to continue.

What you pose as the key question could be answered by anyone that was around before the UK joined, we were unlikely to get any more freedoms than those that were allowed then.

I'd suggest the key, fundamental positive of leaving the EU is, to quote the glib but effective slogan, 'Take Back Control' i.e. restoring powers to our democratic government and ultimately therefore the people. In of itself this positive did come into effect immediately as you suggest but it is what we do with this re won freedom over the longer term that counts.

I agree with you that in the short term the economic downsides have exceeded any upsides and we are currently net worse off than we would have been otherwise. This was to be expected. However as per my first post the net downside from Brexit (ignoring the impact of the pandemic) has been nowhere near the scale of the 1930s depression (as was suggested in the referendum campaign) or indeed of any recent recessions in fact. Therefore to state that leaving the EU is unlikely to be beneficial long term off the back of the so far relatively mild short term consequences is not a supportable argument IMO.

[SydneyRover]

This thread is 37 pages of pure nonsense.

The decision to leave or stay in the EU was a long term one. Anybody who believed that 5 years after our departure we'd either be in 1930s style economic penury (as predicted by Osbourne and Cameron) or basking in economic 'sunlit uplands' is a fool.

The key question of the referendum was whether we'd be happier (and probably but not necessarily more prosperous) long term living in a free, democratic, independent state or in a centralized, undemocratic but more politically stable EU with shared economic risks.

Of course there have been short term downsides and upsides through rupturing our political and economic status quo but arguing over each individually in a competition of one-upmanship is both pointless and misses the wider long term point.

Of the positive promises it was all to happen almost as soon as the ink dried, wasn't it? As far as gains are concerned there haven't been any because as everyone knows the UK hasn't made up for the losses incurred since the vote and is unlikely to do so if the pace and value of and at which trade deals are signed is to continue.

What you pose as the key question could be answered by anyone that was around before the UK joined, we were unlikely to get any more freedoms than those that were allowed then.

I'd suggest the key, fundamental positive of leaving the EU is, to quote the glib but effective slogan, 'Take Back Control' i.e. restoring powers to our democratic government and ultimately therefore the people. In of itself this positive did come into effect immediately as you suggest but it is what we do with this re won freedom over the longer term that counts.

I agree with you that in the short term the economic downsides have exceeded any upsides and we are currently net worse off than we would have been otherwise. This was to be expected. However as per my first post the net downside from Brexit (ignoring the impact of the pandemic) has been nowhere near the scale of the 1930s depression (as was suggested in the referendum campaign) or indeed of any recent recessions in fact. Therefore to state that leaving the EU is unlikely to be beneficial long term off the back of the so far relatively mild short term consequences is not supportable IMO.

I beg to differ, in no way did the proponents of brexit tell anyone to expect a downside long or short term. As for benefits you would have to dig a bit deeper and explain where any of these upsides are going to come from and who the beneficiaries are going to be, because as a business proposition brexit never made sense.

[hstripes]

Sydney I'm giving my own views here. I didn't campaign for Brexit and am not answerable for what people who did may have said or promised.

In my view it was obvious that short term the economic (if not political) consequences would be negative.

The main potential (note potential) upsides IMO, as I think can be inferred from my first post, are via a change in our political organization rather than our trading relationships.

Any student of history knows democracies are the happiest and most prosperous of nations (from Ancient Greece and Rome, North v South Korea, the USA now etc etc). The higher the level of democratic accountability, the closer the rules and laws that govern us match our own beliefs, the happier we are, the happier the more productive, the more productive the more prosperous.

Leaving the EU unarguably increases the level of democratic accountability in the UK. We have become a more democratic nation therefore in of itself happier and potentially more prosperous in the long term.

Also of course we can set rules and laws that benefit the UK rather than have laws set by the EU which are a compromise between many nations with different needs which may not therefore be completely in our interest.

[SydneyRover]

Sydney I'm giving my own views here. I didn't campaign for Brexit and am not answerable for what people who did may have said or promised.

In my view it was obvious that short term the economic (if not political) consequences would be negative.

The main potential (note potential) upside IMO, as I think can be inferred from my first post, is via a change in our political organization rather than our trading relationships.

Any student of history knows democracies are the happiest and most prosperous of nations (from Ancient Greece and Rome, North v South Korea, the USA now etc etc). The higher the level of democratic accountability, the closer the rules and laws that govern us match our own beliefs, the happier we are, the happier the more productive, the more productive the more prosperous.

Leaving the EU unarguably increases the level of democratic accountability in the UK. We have become a more democratic nation therefore in of itself happier and potentially more prosperous in the long term.

Also of course we can set rules and laws that benefit the UK rather than have laws set by the EU which are a compromise between many nations with different needs which may not therefore be completely in our interest.

Maybe you should look at what our parliament, mainly johnson did to achieve brexit and examine the laws enacted or being proposed since and the impossible promises made and think again about this more democratic nation that is emerging from the debris. I'm not sure what any of the examples you have pointed out have got to do with being a member of the EU.

[hstripes]

I think you may have got the false impression here that I'm a rabid Brexiteer. My 1st post was a balanced one suggesting this was a long term decision and perhaps we should wait long term before coming to emphatic judgement.

You've picked up on my balanced view and as you're seemingly a rabid Remainer (not a criticism btw) led me down a path of purely defending why Brexit may be beneficial long term.

As for our current parliament, well parliaments come and go, again this is short-termism. Its what our parliaments do long term that counts in this matter.

Re the referendum. It was a free and fair election there can be no complaints. Both sides made outlandish claims, as sadly is the wont of modern politicians, one side on economics the other on EU grants and immigration numbers. Both sides had ample opportunity to question and ridicule the others claims. Our free press also effectively queried them too.

Personally I believe that the outlandish claims were counterproductive on both sides both anecdotally and also due to my overwhelming faith in the common sense of the majority of people. You may think me naive which is fair enough.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The economic consequences of leaving the Single Market that we're seeing now in the short-term are very much long-term in nature.

The real world is not quite so cut and dried as your statement suggests. SOME of the short term economic consequences of leaving the Single Market may be long term, covered in my comment re the EU's shared economic risk, but some (assuming you are wholly talking downsides) may be overcome long term through internal solutions, forging new alliances or indeed coming to specific, mutually beneficial agreements with the EU itself.

There is absolutely NO WAY the trade barriers that we have now reverted to what they were before the Single Market will ever be removed without rejoining the Single Market. That is why the Single Market was created - to remove them in the first place. No country outside the Single Market will have those barriers removed. That is the real world, and yes it IS cut and dried.

We voted to be treated in exactly the same way that we treated non-EU countries when we were in the EU. I cannot understand why people are surprised by that.

[hstripes]

The economic consequences of leaving the Single Market that we're seeing now in the short-term are very much long-term in nature.

The real world is not quite so cut and dried as your statement suggests. SOME of the short term economic consequences of leaving the Single Market may be long term, covered in my comment re the EU's shared economic risk, but some (assuming you are wholly talking downsides) may be overcome long term through internal solutions, forging new alliances or indeed coming to specific, mutually beneficial agreements with the EU itself.

There is absolutely NO WAY the trade barriers that we have now reverted to what they were before the Single Market will ever be removed without rejoining the Single Market. That is why the Single Market was created - to remove them in the first place. No country outside the Single Market will have those barriers removed. That is the real world, and yes it IS cut and dried.

We voted to be treated in exactly the same way that we treated non-EU countries when we were in the EU. I cannot understand why people are surprised by that.

I'm not suggesting that the trade barriers in place now we are outside the Single Market will be removed. I'm suggesting that some of the short term problems arising from this maybe solved long term through alternate routes.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I'm not suggesting that the trade barriers in place now we are outside the Single Market will be removed. I'm suggesting that some of the short term problems arising from this maybe solved long term through alternate routes.

'Maybe'. Hmmm.

What sort of alternate routes will make the re-imposed Customs Declarations and associated movement paperwork disappear again? Even the deal we have with the EU that idiots are still calling a Free Trade Deal (but is in fact only a Preference Deal) requires mountains of extra evidential paperwork to claim the benefit of. I can't think of an alternative route to get rid of that, can you? One that isn't just based on vague wishful thinking but in the real world you talk about would be nice.

[hstripes]

Well clearly, to suit your argument which is fair enough, with Customs Declarations and associated paperwork you've chosen an issue that cannot be removed entirely. But I'll play along using each of the 3 routes I suggested we can mitigate the cost and time of this to businesses in the long term: -

- Internally - the UK could provide some kind of online portal and advice to help with the paperwork
- New alliances - if the % trade (not necessarily total) with the EU falls then this comparatively becomes less of an issue esp if new trade links are formed with countries with less onerous Customs paperwork requirements.
- Agreement with the EU - remembering this impacts EU exports to the UK equally. Between us devising an online, digital platform plus negotiating a simple, more streamlined approach with less paperwork benefiting companies either side of the Channel.

Of course the issue you raised is small fry compared to the potential down and up sides of leaving the EU long term.

[SydneyRover]

I think you may have got the false impression here that I'm a rabid Brexiteer. My 1st post was a balanced one suggesting this was a long term decision and perhaps we should wait long term before coming to emphatic judgement.

You've picked up on my balanced view and as you're seemingly a rabid Remainer (not a criticism btw) led me down a path of purely defending why Brexit may be beneficial long term.

As for our current parliament, well parliaments come and go, again this is short-termism. Its what our parliaments do long term that counts in this matter.

Re the referendum. It was a free and fair election there can be no complaints. Both sides made outlandish claims, as sadly is the wont of modern politicians, one side on economics the other on EU grants and immigration numbers. Both sides had ample opportunity to question and ridicule the others claims. Our free press also effectively queried them too.

Personally I believe that the outlandish claims were counterproductive on both sides both anecdotally and also due to my overwhelming faith in the common sense of the majority of people. You may think me naive which is fair enough.

No I don't think you are a rabid anything, I think you've gone from 'this whole thread is a total waste' into 'I'm not talking about the economics' on to some possible personal democratic improvements sometime in the future.

This government broke the law in the name of democratic freedoms, fighting for peace? etc.

Wasn't Rome the original EU? except of course it was imposed by force.

And the vote itself may have been free but if you had read only half of the previous pages there is enough information to show you the main lies were perpetrated by the proponents.

Also if you had read some of the pages you would have read about one of the main benefits of the EU to which bst has written extensively and accurately and that is that not a single member of the EU has been at war with another member and please compare that to what went before, that in itself brings more democratic freedoms to the average person than a whole pile of new laws.

Which brings me around to my final point ............ what are these democratic freedoms of which you speak which will make life better for yourself if speaking personally or the average joe if speaking more broadly?

[hstripes]

I think you may have got the false impression here that I'm a rabid Brexiteer. My 1st post was a balanced one suggesting this was a long term decision and perhaps we should wait long term before coming to emphatic judgement.

You've picked up on my balanced view and as you're seemingly a rabid Remainer (not a criticism btw) led me down a path of purely defending why Brexit may be beneficial long term.

As for our current parliament, well parliaments come and go, again this is short-termism. Its what our parliaments do long term that counts in this matter.

Re the referendum. It was a free and fair election there can be no complaints. Both sides made outlandish claims, as sadly is the wont of modern politicians, one side on economics the other on EU grants and immigration numbers. Both sides had ample opportunity to question and ridicule the others claims. Our free press also effectively queried them too.

Personally I believe that the outlandish claims were counterproductive on both sides both anecdotally and also due to my overwhelming faith in the common sense of the majority of people. You may think me naive which is fair enough.

No I don't think you are a rabid anything, I think you've gone from 'this whole thread is a total waste' into 'I'm not talking about the economics' on to some possible personal democratic improvements sometime in the future.

This government broke the law in the name of democratic freedoms, fighting for peace? etc. Sorry don't know what you're talking about here. Again though long term means not just considering the current government

Wasn't Rome the original EU? except of course it was imposed by force. I was referring of the benefit to the Romans themselves. Of course you're right they used their prosperity formed off the back of democracy to take much of Europe by force. We didn't benefit at all from Roman supremacy forged off democracy 'What did the Romans do for us?' A pedant would point out that Rome successfully invaded England after democracy fell and was replaced by dictator Emperors of course

And the vote itself may have been free but if you had read only half of the previous pages there is enough information to show you the main lies were perpetrated by the proponents. Nonsense. There were lies on both sides. The Tory government led by Cameron/Osbourne based their whole campaign on economic consequences in turn based on insane, over the top, doom-laden predictions which were laughable and as I say wholly counterproductive IMO. Predictions that very few other Remain campaigners had the guts to repudiate btw

Also if you had read some of the pages you would have read about one of the main benefits of the EU to which bst has written extensively and accurately and that is that not a single member of the EU has been at war with another member and please compare that to what went before, that in itself brings more democratic freedoms to the average person than a whole pile of new laws. Ah but also no 2 democracies have ever been to war with each other throughout history. Are you seriously suggesting that the UK will abandon democracy and become a war-mongering dictatorship after Brexit

Which brings me around to my final point ............ what are these democratic freedoms of which you speak which will make life better for yourself if speaking personally or the average joe if speaking more broadly? We have regained democratic freedoms over a whole host of areas of policy including trade, consumer rights, environmental rights, farming, fisheries, immigration, sales tax. In each of these areas our democratically elected government can now change the law to suit the country and please the populace making the UK happier and more prosperous as I previously argued

[Glyn_Wigley]

Well clearly, to suit your argument which is fair enough, with Customs Declarations and associated paperwork you've chosen an issue that cannot be removed entirely. But I'll play along using each of the 3 routes I suggested we can mitigate the cost and time of this to businesses in the long term: -

- Internally - the UK could provide some kind of online portal and advice to help with the paperwork
- New alliances - if the % trade (not necessarily total) with the EU falls then this comparatively becomes less of an issue esp if new trade links are formed with countries with less onerous Customs paperwork requirements.
- Agreement with the EU - remembering this impacts EU exports to the UK equally. Between us devising an online, digital platform plus negotiating a simple, more streamlined approach with less paperwork benefiting companies either side of the Channel.

Of course the issue you raised is small fry compared to the potential down and up sides of leaving the EU long term.

Your Route 1 and 3 'solutions' are exactly the same thing and we had electronic declarations over ten years ago so Brexit hasn't changed that apart from now having to have declarations for trade both ways with EU countries that weren't necessary before.

Route 2 doesn't address trade with the EU at all. It talks about trade with non-EU countries, which has been entirely unaffected by Brexit - the barriers there are exactly the same as they were before Brexit. Your line about countries with 'less onerous Customs paperwork requirements', I'm sorry but there aren't any and you thinking there might be just tells me that you're back to the wishful thinking again.

[SydneyRover]

You're a bit of a johnny-come-lately to want to turn over what has been discussed ad nauseum so I suggest before you make sweeping statements about what both side did, go and read the whole thread and any others where we discussed brexit. Then come back with your thoughts.

Added: I suggest if you wants to discuss the benefits on a whole host of stuff, which you didn't want to before then you show proof not just fisheries etc did this or that, show what the results are, show if the fishermen are happy, what the benefits are exactly, how the catch changed, who owns the boats and the licences, this has all been discussed, not just your version, put some proof on the table.