Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Viking Chat => Topic started by: BillyStubbsTears on January 29, 2024, 04:52:40 pm
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Big H was asking for this the other day and who am I to refuse.
Usual caveats. It's not trying to predict how many points each team will get. It's trying to predict how many points each final position in the table will have. It's not perfect. It's got no scientific basis, but year after year it does seem to roughly work. Last year for example, at this time of the season I was still naively thinking we were in the play-off hunt and was modelling the top of the table. The first week I ran the predictor was early Feb, and the average error between the predictions for the top 7 spots, compared to the actual final points totals was 1.5 point. It got five of the top 7 bang on or only 1-2 points off.
Anyway. Here goes.
15th 63
16th 58
17th 56
18th 54
19th 48
20th 46
21st 42
22nd 42
23rd 37
24th 26
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Interesting bst.
If your prediction for the bottom two turns out to be correct then we would need just ten more points to stay up.
Ten points from 18 matches.
If we can’t achieve that we don’t deserve to stay up.
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I go to as many home games as I can. Living 1.5 hours away. Health restricts me esp if me ( not great health, my wife ( has serious illnesses). So at times am restricted but try as I bring my son. He loves the club. Always will support my club.
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Interesting bst.
If your prediction for the bottom two turns out to be correct then we would need just ten more points to stay up.
Ten points from 18 matches.
If we can’t achieve that we don’t deserve to stay up.
here’s hoping, lets say 15 points, but like BST says, it’s not fool proof, but has been pretty close over the years, the updates every week are interesting
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Interesting bst.
If your prediction for the bottom two turns out to be correct then we would need just ten more points to stay up.
Ten points from 18 matches.
If we can’t achieve that we don’t deserve to stay up.
here’s hoping, lets say 15 points, but like BST says, it’s not fool proof, but has been pretty close over the years, the updates every week are interesting
Agreed, 15 points would be great and then we won’t be checking the scores of other teams on the last day of the season.
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We have played 10 of the top 11 sides away from home already, so if it's at all possible, we have an easier run in than it could have been...
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We have played 10 of the top 11 sides away from home already, so if it's at all possible, we have an easier run in than it could have been...
Or look at it this way.
We have most of the top teams still to play at home. And we've lost 4 of our last 5 home games anyway.
And we are absolute cack away from home.
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Interesting bst.
If your prediction for the bottom two turns out to be correct then we would need just ten more points to stay up.
Ten points from 18 matches.
If we can’t achieve that we don’t deserve to stay up.
If ppg stays around the same average then rovers will get 18 points from 18 games.
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It seems 41.8 pts is the average points total to be relegated
https://www.thestatszone.com/football/how-many-points-are-needed-for-league-2-survival
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Thanks BST, good work.
I’d hate for us to be the team that ends up around 37 points.
Hopefully, a wake up call to the club.
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That 26 points for 24th place is interesting. If it's right, it means there's a team in this division not much better than us in 97/98.
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I've abandoned all hope of a "top half finish" . Bookies 1 Rovers VSC readers 0
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If Sutton continue at a point per game they get 39. And more if they beat us. Drawing against Barrow, Mansfield and Walsall is very good going for them.
I’m looking at Grimsby. They don’t appear to have had a new manager bounce. Artell is more of a long term planner than someone like Cotterill at FGR who can motivate and organise to get a tune short term.
With Wimbledon’s downturn in form and selling their star player the Iraqi International I think that makes that fixture a bit easier.
We really could have done with playing Walsall when they were out of form but they postponed it. They would demolish us now.
With their upturns in form I think Sutton and Salford away are hard fixtures now.
How many points do we get out of:
Sutton (A)
Tranmere (H) - they’ve really picked up
Salford (A)
Grimsby (A)
Wimbledon (H)
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If Sutton continue at a point per game they get 39. And more if they beat us. Drawing against Barrow, Mansfield and Walsall is very good going for them.
I’m looking at Grimsby. They don’t appear to have had a new manager bounce. Artell is more of a long term planner than someone like Cotterill at FGR who can motivate and organise to get a tune short term.
With Wimbledon’s downturn in form and selling their star player the Iraqi International I think that makes that fixture a bit easier.
We really could have done with playing Walsall when they were out of form but they postponed it. They would demolish us now.
With their upturns in form I think Sutton and Salford away are hard fixtures now.
How many points do we get out of:
Sutton (A)
Tranmere (H) - they’ve really picked up
Salford (A)
Grimsby (A)
Wimbledon (H)
5 points from these I reckon.
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If you exclude the MK Dons match, when was the last league game we competed for 90 minutes?
The answer to that should really concern everyone.
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I think a few weeks ago people on here just like myself put a bet on rovers finishing in the top half, looking unlikely now, but I’m still hoping.
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I've abandoned all hope of a "top half finish" . Bookies 1 Rovers VSC readers 0
Same here Wolfie, and that really pi***s me off.
I genuinely thought when I placed that bet that it was nailed on to pay out. The first time I've ever bet on Rovers but I couldn't have been more confident that I would be taking money off the bookies.
It really hurts to know they got one over on me - thanks a lot Rovers!
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I put a bet on with a forum member with monies going to the Academy so at least I kept the bet ‘in house’ & not padding the wallets of bookies.
It hurts nonetheless though how badly we’ve capitulated this season. I think in truth it’s had us all scratching our heads.
The bet ‘included’ Ironside scoring more than 10 goals from open play. We’ve eighteen games to go & he’s ‘stuck’ on seven.
It’s all on you Joe!
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With Cotterill in at FGR, and Sutton seeming to stabilise slightly, it's hard to see the bottom side finishing on 26 points, as no other team in the division aside from those two can now do so. I think that'll be the anomaly with the model this season.
We should have enough to get 10-14 points from 18 matches surely? I might just give up on football if we can't even manage that.
The concern is that we rarely draw games, and have lost more than Sutton and only one fewer than FGR.
Every point could be vital, so we need to find some way of staying in games and not conceding on an industrial scale like we have not just this season, but for the past 3 years. It's going to be nervy.
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I fully expect us to stay up. Im not overly concerned about relegation at this stage.
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I fully expect us to stay up. Im not overly concerned about relegation at this stage.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/EDOpkeaW4AIWwqv.jpg)
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I put a bet on with a forum member with monies going to the Academy so at least I kept the bet ‘in house’ & not padding the wallets of bookies.
It hurts nonetheless though how badly we’ve capitulated this season. I think in truth it’s had us all scratching our heads.
The bet ‘included’ Ironside scoring more than 10 goals from open play. We’ve eighteen games to go & he’s ‘stuck’ on seven.
It’s all on you Joe!
He needs some support in attack! Picking Craig, Hurst and Molyneux doesn’t help him out whatsoever.
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I've abandoned all hope of a "top half finish" . Bookies 1 Rovers VSC readers 0
I almost put on a sizable bet I was that confident, then drew back at the last minute after remembering all my bets fail, hence why I never bet..
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Thanks BST
I am reminded of a traditional saying in the modelling & simulation community that I was a member of (not sure where it came from) - 'All models are wrong, some are useful'. Yours has proved itself, despite being (IMHO) one which I would not have automatically expected to be. Then again models, like hypotheses are covered by Einstein's 'everything should be made as simple as possible, but not more so'.
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I've abandoned all hope of a "top half finish" . Bookies 1 Rovers VSC readers 0
I bet £100 on that and at the time thought it was easy money. Never imagined for a second this is where we’d be now.
Thankfully, I cashed out a couple of weeks ago when the cash out was roughly what I’d bet.
Appalling the position we’re in. Another terrible season for the record books
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If Sutton continue at a point per game they get 39. And more if they beat us. Drawing against Barrow, Mansfield and Walsall is very good going for them.
I’m looking at Grimsby. They don’t appear to have had a new manager bounce. Artell is more of a long term planner than someone like Cotterill at FGR who can motivate and organise to get a tune short term.
With Wimbledon’s downturn in form and selling their star player the Iraqi International I think that makes that fixture a bit easier.
We really could have done with playing Walsall when they were out of form but they postponed it. They would demolish us now.
With their upturns in form I think Sutton and Salford away are hard fixtures now.
How many points do we get out of:
Sutton (A)
Tranmere (H) - they’ve really picked up
Salford (A)
Grimsby (A)
Wimbledon (H)
5 points from these I reckon.
For that to happen, nr, would require either that Rovers get at least one win or go on a five match unbeaten run. Why do I not feel optimistic about either?
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If Sutton continue at a point per game they get 39. And more if they beat us. Drawing against Barrow, Mansfield and Walsall is very good going for them.
I’m looking at Grimsby. They don’t appear to have had a new manager bounce. Artell is more of a long term planner than someone like Cotterill at FGR who can motivate and organise to get a tune short term.
With Wimbledon’s downturn in form and selling their star player the Iraqi International I think that makes that fixture a bit easier.
We really could have done with playing Walsall when they were out of form but they postponed it. They would demolish us now.
With their upturns in form I think Sutton and Salford away are hard fixtures now.
How many points do we get out of:
Sutton (A)
Tranmere (H) - they’ve really picked up
Salford (A)
Grimsby (A)
Wimbledon (H)
5 points from these I reckon.
For that to happen, nr, would require either that Rovers get at least one win or go on a five match unbeaten run. Why do I not feel optimistic about either?
For clarity, my prediction is based on beating Sutton, and drawing two of the others. We are very short on draws this season.
If I was to put my neck out:
Sutton win. Please god don’t lose this one.
Tranmere lose
Salford lose
Grimsby draw
Wimbledon draw.
5 points.
This isn’t wearing too well.
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Sutton away lose
Tranmere home win
Salford away lose
Grimsby away draw
Wimbledon home draw
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Harrogate have done us a big favour tonight.
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February quite a critical month.
Forest Green play Colchester, Mansfield, Barrow, Crawley and Tranmere.
Sutton play us, Morecambe, Wrexham, Bradford, Colchester and Notts County.
We have Sutton, Tranmere, Salford, Grimsby and Wimbledon.
I don’t see us winning too many but you would be hard pressed to imagine either Sutton or Forest winning more points in February than we do. If that is right, then the currently big gap will remain. That’s a big deal going into March.
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February quite a critical month.
Forest Green play Colchester, Mansfield, Barrow, Crawley and Tranmere.
Sutton play us, Morecambe, Wrexham, Bradford, Colchester and Notts County.
We have Sutton, Tranmere, Salford, Grimsby and Wimbledon.
I don’t see us winning too many but you would be hard pressed to imagine either Sutton or Forest winning more points in February than we do. If that is right, then the currently big gap will remain. That’s a big deal going into March.
Giving this a bump. We maintained a 9 point lead on equal games with Forest Green, and a 7 point lead with us having game in hand on Sutton.
Now look at those February fixtures above. You would imagine that going into March the lead we had over both would not be any smaller than it is now.
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Will we be getting the weekly update on this?
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Will we be getting the weekly update on this?
Eventually, but my laptop crashed the other day and I'm still trying to restore it, so I don't have access to the spreadsheet at the moment.
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February quite a critical month.
Forest Green play Colchester, Mansfield, Barrow, Crawley and Tranmere.
Sutton play us, Morecambe, Wrexham, Bradford, Colchester and Notts County.
We have Sutton, Tranmere, Salford, Grimsby and Wimbledon.
I don’t see us winning too many but you would be hard pressed to imagine either Sutton or Forest winning more points in February than we do. If that is right, then the currently big gap will remain. That’s a big deal going into March.
Giving this a bump. We maintained a 9 point lead on equal games with Forest Green, and a 7 point lead with us having game in hand on Sutton.
Now look at those February fixtures above. You would imagine that going into March the lead we had over both would not be any smaller than it is now.
We have a home game on Saturday but then four away games out of the following five.
Given our poor away return I think we might be a bit closer to the drop than we are now.
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On another forum I’m on they do a similar spreadsheet for both promotion and relegation. It’s stating the predicted number of points required for safety is 34.
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Wow, 34 points to achieve safety is incredibly low isn’t it.
In our mini league of five you would expect that ourselves, Grimsby and Colchester should manage a further five points from 17 games.
Using the calculations in the predictor posted by BST we “only” need eight more points from those games.
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I thought so too but like Billy’s it’s been fairly accurate every year
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Wow, 34 points to achieve safety is incredibly low isn’t it.
In our mini league of five you would expect that ourselves, Grimsby and Colchester should manage a further five points from 17 games.
Using the calculations in the predictor posted by BST we “only” need eight more points from those games.
Not saying BST is wrong, he’s good at these things, but I think the team finishing second bottom will get more points that. 37-38 maybe.
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I think BST said 37 for 23rd place to begin with to be fair. The 34 points figure came from a different model used on another forum it seems.
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For what it's worth, it's not ME that will be right or wrong. It's a model that, for whatever reason, is usually reasonably accurate.
"Reasonably" is the key word there. Just because the model currently suggests 37 points for 23rd place, don't expect it to be exactly that. There's usually a +/- difference between the predictions this far out and the final tallies. Many times it's only +/-1 or so, but it can be higher. It's a probability thing, not a certainty thing. If the model is saying 37 at the moment, read it as meaning "Very, very unlikely to be 30 or 45, but increasingly less unlikely as you home in on 37".
But, as I say every year, this could be the year when it is way out. (I said that last year. Barring a couple of the top 12 places, it was very accurate.)
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I said a few weeks ago that 35 points would be enough to keep u up this season, after seeing the bottoms 2s fixtures on another bread I still believe that.
FGR have made a few decent signings (Christian Doidge in particular) but with their remaining fixtures I can’t see them getting 15 points from their last 17 games.
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They play each other on 16 March in the El Crapico.
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Here's the update after yesterday.
15th 63 59
16th 58 57
17th 56 57
18th 54 53
19th 48 50
20th 46 45
21st 42 43
22nd 42 43
23rd 37 34
24th 26 28
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The one on the other forum is saying 33 so pretty much identical
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I reckon we’re almost there, would like a couple more wins though, to be on the safe side
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Bill, I probably ask the same question every season. But can you explain again why to finish 3rd bottom that team only ‘needs’ 35 points (or just 34 and better GD), but you have the club in that position on 43. Both can’t be correct can they?
I get that it’s what you’re predicting what the club in that position will actually achieve. But we’ve got 36 already therefore we’re safe based on your predictions?
Or if we finish on 36 we’re either 3rd bottom or 2nd bottom (as either position is within your error margin)?
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Silk
The model is predicting how many points the sides finishing 24th, 23rd, 22nd etc WILL have at the end of the season.
So, simplistically, if the model says the side in 23rd will have 34 points and we have 36, you'd say we are probably safe already. We are unlikely to finish 23rd or 24th.
But that is a bit simplistic. Because no model is ever 100% accurate. It's safer to interpret the model as saying that the side in 23rd place will end the season with "approximately 24 points". How you interpret "approximately" is down to your own risk appetite.
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After the last few games, could we now have a model version of predicted points for 12th-20th please.
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After the last few games, could we now have a model version of predicted points for 12th-20th please.
Afraid not. I haven't got the time or energy to do that. And it's not important enough to make the time and find the energy.
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The other models relegation hasn’t been updated but the promotion part has, it’s forecasting 69 points for the playoffs
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The other models relegation hasn’t been updated but the promotion part has, it’s forecasting 69 points for the playoffs
33 points from 14 games for rovers. 2.35ppg
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Here's the update after yesterday, with the extension to 11th, cos I already had the data as it happens.
11th 67
12th 65
13th 64
14th 63
15th 63 59 63
16th 58 57 62
17th 56 57 61
18th 54 53 60
19th 48 50 53
20th 46 45 51
21st 42 43 44
22nd 42 43 38
23rd 37 34 30
24th 26 28 29
Some big changes, since a lot of sides just outside the bottom 4 have hit a bit of form. I suspect the figures for 15th to 20th will turn out to be a bit on the high side, and will drop back a bit over the next couple of weeks. Similarly, the figure for 23rd looks a bit at the lower end of what we'll eventually see.
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Here's the update after yesterday, with the extension to 11th, cos I already had the data as it happens.
11th 67
12th 65
13th 64
14th 63
15th 63 59 63
16th 58 57 62
17th 56 57 61
18th 54 53 60
19th 48 50 53
20th 46 45 51
21st 42 43 44
22nd 42 43 38
23rd 37 34 30
24th 26 28 29
Some big changes, since a lot of sides just outside the bottom 4 have hit a bit of form. I suspect the figures for 15th to 20th will turn out to be a bit on the high side, and will drop back a bit over the next couple of weeks. Similarly, the figure for 23rd looks a bit at the lower end of what we'll eventually see.
For those with top half finish bets, rovers need to average 2ppg from here on in based on these stats. And by god wouldnt that be wonderful. Here’s hoping. (A lot)
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Latest prediction (Note - I spotted an error in the previous post for 23rd place. Should have been 35, not 30 points and I've corrected it here.)
11th 67 67
12th 65 66
13th 64 63
14th 63 63
15th 63 59 63 58
16th 58 57 62 57
17th 56 57 61 56
18th 54 53 60 55
19th 48 50 53 53
20th 46 45 51 53
21st 42 43 44 46
22nd 42 43 38 43
23rd 37 34 35 37
24th 26 28 29 33
As expected, the predictions for 15-20th place have mostly settled down a bit. Prediction for last place has been rising, but the key one, 23rd place has been steady between 34-37 points. If that's right, we are safe already.
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I reckon we'll finish with about 56 points. We could already be safe but that total would have us well clear of any last-minute jitters.
Regardless of where we finish now, the season as a whole has to go down as well below expectations. It's crucial to back Grant in the Summer. If he can add three or four or players of a similar quality to Adelakun throughout the team we'll be a force to be reckoned with.
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Looking at the fixtures of both FGR & Sutton, I get them at 33 &34 points total. FGR would have to perform as table toppers until the end of the season, looking at their fixtures.
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Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.
I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.
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Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.
I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.
You can’t win ‘em all.
I’ll keep you reight.
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Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.
I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.
The other one on the other forum is also saying 40 points now so it’s not just yours
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Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.
I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.
Couldn’t ever have been that low (know you were just sticking to previous workings out). I had it at 38 points for the second bottom team back then and I’d be happy sticking with that now still.
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Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.
I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.
Couldn’t ever have been that low (know you were just sticking to previous workings out). I had it at 38 points for the second bottom team back then and I’d be happy sticking with that now still.
I had 37 points for second bottom, 8-9 weeks ago.
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29th January this thread was started, we were all worried about not getting enough points to stay up, today, 10th April we are now looking at gate crashing the play offs, what a turn around!
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Looks like it was miles out on the 2nd bottom, 2nd bottom already on 38 with 5 games to go
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Looks like it was miles out on the 2nd bottom, 2nd bottom already on 38 with 5 games to go
It’s an evolving model, doesn’t take i to account an upturn in form, on previous seasons it gets more accurate as time goes on, maybe the mistake made was looking at it so far out from the end of the season
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You can’t model these things. Predictably unpredictable which makes it all the more fascinating.
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Well known accepted quote in the world of modelling and simulation: 'All models are wrong, some are useful'
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Anyone know what the record high points totals are for 24th and 23rd?
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Anyone know what the record high points totals are for 24th and 23rd?
Since three points per win was introduced in 1981-82, in the fourth tier the highest points for 23rd is 51 in 2012-13 and for 24th is 48 in 1986-87, 1998-99 and 2012-13
Using ppg for seasons of less than 46 games, the average over that time for bottom two places over 46 games is 42.96 and 37.55
Edit: Unsurprsingly the lowest for last place over that time is ................. us with 20 in the self destruct season of 1997-98
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Anyone know what the record high points totals are for 24th and 23rd?
Since three points per win was introduced in 1981-82, in the fourth tier the highest points for 23rd is 51 in 2012-13 and for 24th is 48 in 1986-87, 1998-99 and 2012-13
Uisng ppg for seasons of less than 46 games, the average over that time for 23rd and 24th over 46 games is 42.96 and 37.55
I’m just glad that we are out of these calculations now.
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No danger of any records being broken then. All the same the points totals for the bottom two look like they'll be some way above predictions.
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I do wonder if that 97-98 lowest points record will ever be beaten. Surely it will at some point, in this era of points deductions and financial craziness.
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I know lots of clubs still get into financial trouble and I know governance needs to be improved still, but I really doubt anything in league football will ever be as shambolic in our lifetime, and hence a lower points total ‘achieved’. There was literally no oversight or restraint whatsoever on Richardson from the authorities, or the footballing authorities at least. I do not think half the stuff that went on would be tolerated today.
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It amazes me that we got 20 points. As somebody that attended nearly all of the games home and away that season, I don’t look back and remember us coming away with that many results!
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I do wonder if that 97-98 lowest points record will ever be beaten. Surely it will at some point, in this era of points deductions and financial craziness.
It has been beaten in other leagues - e.g. recently Derby with 11 points in the Prem in 2007-08, Villa with 17 in 2015-16, and Huddersfield with 16 in 2018-19 of course in the lower number 38 games, and these had no points deductions
Stoke had 17 points in 42 games in the old Division 1 in 1984-85
It is not even our own lowest - we had 8 points at 2 per win (would have been 11 at 3 per win) in 34 games in 1904-05
I do believe our 20 points is the lowest number of points ever over a full 46 match season for any club in the top 4 divisions