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I’m not one to over react but I think our government is being blasé about this. Are other countries being over cautious.?It’s my opinion but I don’t think the uk is doing anywhere near enough to contain the spread.
The management of public opinion was the theme for the media.Very surprised to hear them claim we are 4 weeks behind Italy....when I last looked it was about 11 days!Why have they not closed the stock market down for a month to damp down the financial panic?
The bbc column discusses why the uk isn’t doing as much as other countries.Apparently it is “because we have a relatively low number of confirmed cases, so there is no need to take steps that will have profound social and economic consequences”What about the unconfirmed cases and the spread they don’t know about.?Am I missing something here.?
London Evening Standard...Boris states between 5 and 10,000 infected in UK
Quote from: IDM on March 12, 2020, 05:35:30 pmThe bbc column discusses why the uk isn’t doing as much as other countries.Apparently it is “because we have a relatively low number of confirmed cases, so there is no need to take steps that will have profound social and economic consequences”What about the unconfirmed cases and the spread they don’t know about.?Am I missing something here.?I think we are probably doing the right thing.We aren't going to stop this now, so it's about spreading the duration. We need to turn the three week peak to a three month peak. So there WILL be a near closedown at the peak time. And it might well last three months. And it might still be 2-3 months away.Being draconian now doesn't help. Slowing down the rate if spread when we only have a few hundred or thousand cases doesn't help. What you want to do is slow the rate of growth from half a million cases upwards. And if we shut down schools now, that's going to be an extra 2-3 months of parents having to be off work, for no benefit.Save the big effort for when the tsunami breaks and it's really needed.
The mortality rate in Italy is looking closer to 5%, I'd snap your hand off for 0.1% The UK has quite a lot in common with Italy, a large elderly population, lots of people with underlying health conditions, obesity, diabetes and so on.This is really going to test the NHS.
Quote from: River Don on March 12, 2020, 07:35:22 pmThe mortality rate in Italy is looking closer to 5%, I'd snap your hand off for 0.1% The UK has quite a lot in common with Italy, a large elderly population, lots of people with underlying health conditions, obesity, diabetes and so on.This is really going to test the NHS.That's because they have tens of thousands undiagnosed.
Quote from: Sprotyrover on March 12, 2020, 05:29:43 pmLondon Evening Standard...Boris states between 5 and 10,000 infected in UKI hope to God that is right.If there's 10,000 cases and only 10 deaths, maybe the death rate might be a lot lower than we think. I'd take a 0.1% death rate now. It will still mean 30-40,000 dead but that's at the very best end of what we can hope for.
Trouble with closing down stuff now is the time that would go on for.
No IDM.That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.
Why is the advice in other counties different, in places like Hungary where there are far fewer cases they have more restrictive measures.?
That all sounds fine Billy provided you have unlimited resources and control of time. We are 17000 NHS beds and 40000 nurses short and apparently stretched to capacity already. This Italian doctor thinks we are doing it wrong and we are going to be overwhelmed quicker than we think. I do hope he is wrong and you and Johnson are right:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-us-response-criticism-boris-trump-italy-a9398166.html