Tory Leader - Who's your preference?

[Bentley Bullet]

BST. I think in your determination to get involved in an attempt at reinforcing your clique, you missed the point of my last post.

It's almost as if you weren't really interested in properly addressing the effects of not carrying out the vote.

[wilts rover]

Here's something good that will come out of Brexit.

British politicians and business figures will no longer be able to blame the EU for the consequences of their own policies and actions.

Any Brexiteer please feel free to use that in future - so then we might get back to discussing how the next Tory leader will get us out of the mess we are in. Because that shower of **** on the Channel 4 debate clearly dont have a clue.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB.
I'd been hoping you might have been growing up in your sabbatical. I'm very disappointed that you seem determined to be as childish as ever.

[Bentley Bullet]

I was hoping you might have practised a bit more of what you preach by actually addressing the contents of posts instead of issuing childish personal comments.

[SydneyRover]

What haven't I answered? I've said all along that I don't know what the consequence of Brexit will be, either positive or negative, other than my opinion of the repercussions if we fail to carry out the referendum vote.

Many Brexiters believe that the 8.5 billion quid we would keep instead of giving it to the EU could be invested more profitably. I believe they have a point.

Maybe with that sort of logic you could be on a combined ticket with Boris, an empty sofa.

[DonnyOsmond]

Hancock backing Boris so that he can have a cabinet job.

[tommy toes]

Hancock backing Boris so that he can have a cabinet job.

Yes despite Hancock openly criticising Boris over and over again.
Makes you sick. He's more concerned with his own career than trying to block this dangerous, lazy, racist buffoon from being our next PM.

[scawsby steve]

Hancock backing Boris so that he can have a cabinet job.

Ah, cabinet jobs, snakes in the grass.

Thanks for reminding us of 2010 and what the Remain supporting Lib Dems are really like.

[i_ateallthepies]

Here's something good that will come out of Brexit.

British politicians and business figures will no longer be able to blame the EU for the consequences of their own policies and actions.

Any Brexiteer please feel free to use that in future - so then we might get back to discussing how the next Tory leader will get us out of the mess we are in. Because that shower of **** on the Channel 4 debate clearly dont have a clue.

They won't be stuck for someone to blame, Wilts.  The British public who voted for it will get that honour.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's the upcoming problem for Labour.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ofbig74dp/SundayTimes_190614_Results_w.pdf

These tables show that Johnson is wildly popular with people who currently identify as Brexit Party supporters. And more popular than not among current Tory supporters.

It's a given that the Tory support is going to bounce back strongly when Johnson is installed. It doesn't matter that 60% of the population can't abide him and don't trust him. If the vote on the Left remains divided, he'll walk a General Election in the autumn.

Be interesting to see if the grown ups in the Labour party can drag Corbyn kicking and screaming to the only policy stance that can counter that.

Given that Momentum has spent the last few days engaging in open warfare against "Blairites", it looks like Corbyn isn't going to come willingly.

[DonnyOsmond]

Thought Jeremy Hunt did well in the debate. Stewart gave some good answers but the whole "please let me finish" did get very annoying.

[wilts rover]

Yes Billy, I notice he has been endorsed by Farage.

When I hear @BorisJohnson say we will leave on the 31st of October, I am reminded that Mrs May told us 108 times that we would leave on the 29th of March.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434

Never thought I’d see the day when I’d retweet Farage, but on this occasion he’s absolutely right. If you believe Johnson has any intention of keeping this promise I’ve got a garden bridge to sell you
https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/1140250491697467397

Johnson has made his own rope. He has told Brexiteers we will leave on 31st October come what may. But can't leave on the terms we have now because Parliament won't let him. Nor will they allow No Deal.

He can't renegotiate/sign a new deal before 17th October - because that's when the next European Council meets. There isn't time to organise an election between 17th and 31st October. So we won't leave on 31st October and Boris will have betrayed those Brexiteers.

Get back to me on 1st November and let me know what his poll ratings are then.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

And in those circumstances, when he goes to the country with the line: "YOU want to leave. I want to leave. Parliament won't let us leave. Give me a mandate," there'd better be some clarity on the Left...

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Wilts.

And in those circumstances, when he goes to the country with the line: "YOU want to leave. I want to leave. Parliament won't let us leave. Give me a mandate," there'd better be some clarity on the Left...

Agree with this, people think he is stupid, he really is not.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Stupid is the very last thing he is. When it comes to his career, he's ruthless.

[SydneyRover]

Wilts.

And in those circumstances, when he goes to the country with the line: "YOU want to leave. I want to leave. Parliament won't let us leave. Give me a mandate," there'd better be some clarity on the Left...

Agree with this, people think he is stupid, he really is not.

No Wilts he may be an inveterate liar, a narcissist, have a short attention span, be totally untrustworthy, lack empathy, unreliable and incompetent but he is not totally stupid. But worthy enough to be in charge of the conservatives.

Oh and the latest stooge of the rwmjs

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/17/boris-johnson-accused-of-making-mps-contradictory-brexit-promises

[Glyn_Wigley]

Wilts.

And in those circumstances, when he goes to the country with the line: "YOU want to leave. I want to leave. Parliament won't let us leave. Give me a mandate," there'd better be some clarity on the Left...

But if it's not gone through Parliament because of his own Conservative MPs, going to the country will look like 'We can't deliver Brexit, so vote for more of us'. And they'll lose loads of votes to the Brexit Party. Probably splitting their vote and working in Labour's favour.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Glyn

No.

Because the line would be that it is the centrist Tory MPs (Gaulke, Greening, Grieve, Jo Johnson, Gyimah, Letwin, Morgan etc, etc) who are the problem. There's already a big move from Arron Banks to get previous UKIP members into the Tory party to get those MPs deselected and replaced with swivel-eyed No Deal'ers.

It's an easy line to sell to the 35-ish% of the electorate that Boris would need for a landslide if Labour doesn't get its act together.

[wilts rover]

Wilts.

And in those circumstances, when he goes to the country with the line: "YOU want to leave. I want to leave. Parliament won't let us leave. Give me a mandate," there'd better be some clarity on the Left...

I agree with the main point of that statement Billy, but read that Farage tweet again.

If Johnson goes to the country without delivering the Brexit he promised to deliver on 31st October - that is the Brexit he is promising to deliver today with the Parliament in place today - why would Brexiteers believe him and not Farage?

That's why Farage wont do a deal with him. Because he knows Johnson can't deliver Brexit and he knows he will be the one who benefits from it.

And as soon as these senarios start to become facts that immediately changes the landscape for Labour. It's not then about overturning Brexit but opposing Farage and what he stands for - thus giving Corbyn an excuse to move.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts. Read my post immediately before yours. It's a blindingly obvious strategy for Johnson and Farage.

Blame the impasse on the soft Tory traitors (That's already being done by Banks and the BP)
Pack the Tory membership with ex-UKIP/BP entryists (That's already being done by Banks)
Pack the Tory candidate list with Hard Brexit believers and campaign on Hard Brexit (Constituency NC votes votes on those deemed soft on Brexit are already happening up and down the country)

That requires Labour to have a crystal clear position on Ref2 to solidify the anti-Hard Brexit vote. If the anti-Hard Brexit vote remains fractured, you've got a Johnson landslide on the cards, with just 35-38% of the vote.

[DonnyOsmond]

Raab out. Thank f*ck. At least the worst have gone. Boris doesn't deserve it if he can't debate his competition though.

[albie]

BST,

If Johnson adopts a no deal by default position, and drifts towards automatic departure in October, the Tory rebels will support a vote of NC, bringing a GE.
Grieve already has the pledges.

The GE would then offer:
(a) a necessary extension to Brexit to allow the GE,
(b) chance to review policy for both parties.

This gives the public vote on the way forward.

As Brexit will not have happened, Farrago will run GE candidates to keep the Tories honest. He may be selective in targeting specific seats.
Boris can only offer no deal under the new HoC numbers. EU are not prepared to open new talks.

For Labour, there is a policy question, and a timing question.

If Conference chooses to change policy, then the manifesto will reflect this, and the GE will be fought on that basis.
Any new policy will take effect before a GE, so supporting Ref2 at this stage is premature.

Are you suggesting Labour should fight a GE on the promise of a subsequent Ref2?

I still don't see how a Ref2 position helps here, over and above the stance in a GE.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

Very simple.

Labour's position is currently VERY toxic in the eyes of many left people. Myself included.

Here's why.

I don't believe that Corbyn and the 4Ms are anti-Brexit. And, given the way Labour's polling position has gone through an unprecedented collapse over the first half of this year, nor do about another 6 million left-leaning voters.

You will doubtlessly,once again, repeated your baffled bemusement at this opinion. You will say that Corbyn is whiter than white and is only doing what Conference wants. And that line might just hold if we were all emotionless robots.

But voters don't just make their decisions and form their opinions on impersonal statements. They look at nuance. Body language. They look I to people's eyes and ask themselves whether they believe what they hear.

In the case of Corbyn and the 4Ms, every twitch, every cough, every raise of the eyebrow (as well as every word they said prior to 2016, and many of the words they said since) screams out that they WANT Brexit. I saw him. 24 hours before the polls opened. When he should have been banging the table and rousing people against the xenophobic Brexit that was being pushed by the authoritarian right. I saw him. On an obscure left wing webcast watched by a slack handful of socialist obsessives, undergoing an inquisition. Being asked why he was supporting Remain when he'd spent his life decrying the EU. I saw him squirm and dissemble and say that he appreciated the Left case against the EU but on balance he was in favour of Remain because you need international cooperation to pick up plastic bags dropped off the coast of Colombia.

I saw that. And I've known PRECISELY who he is and what he thinks about Brexit ever since.

And even though I'm in a tiny minority in having seen that, there are enough other clues for other people to make their own judgements. And the impression he gives of Labour's approach to Brecit is toxic. That means that the 6 million supporters they have haemorrhaged are in danger of not coming back.

And who is going to believe, come September, when Conference overwhelmingly puts Corbyn and the 4Ms in their box and instructs them that party policy will be explicitly to campaign for Ref2 and Remain, who will believe that Corbyn believes that? Who will trust him.

So yes. You're absolutely right. It IS about policy and it IS about timing. And given the danger of an Autumn election, leaving the timing of being explicit and clear and passionate about Brexit policy until the last minute is beyond dangerous. Corbyn and the 4Ms need isolating. It needs the rest of the party to ringfence them and to clearly enunciate a Brecit policy that the overwhelming majority of party members and potential voters can passionately get behind.

[albie]

BST,

Will you please answer the question I put?
Are you suggesting Labour should fight a GE on the promise of a subsequent Ref2?

I still don't see how a Ref2 position helps here, over and above the stance in a GE.

(1) It alienates any voter unhappy with the failure to deliver Ref1.
(2) It would cost Labour votes in the seats Farrago would target in leave supporting areas.
(3) It cannot be delivered until 22 weeks after the new government takes power, so would be seen as further heel dragging.
(4) Business would be further hampered in investment strategies by uncertainty. Relocation to EU safe havens would continue to the detriment of the UK economy.
(5) You re-open the debate about the question to be put in Ref2.

You suggest Labour needs a new position to "solidify the anti hard brexit vote".
I don't see the evidence that all these votes will fall to Labour, or how many will on a geographic distribution.

SNP and LibDems will take this position, and will increase their support in areas where they are strong.
Labour support is much more fractured across the country on this, and it is likely that seats will be lost as well as gained.

If you have any evidence of a net gain in Labour support from a post GE Ref2, across the marginal seats vulnerable to change, it would be welcome.

[wilts rover]

Or to expand on Albie's points. why are the MP's including, Kinnock, Sarah Champion, Lisa Nandy, Gareth Snell, Flint, who wrote to Corbyn today saying that the Brexit Party is more of threat than the LD's or Greens wrong?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/19/labour-mps-warn-corbyn-not-to-commit-to-second-brexit-referendum

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

I have no idea why on earth Flint is pandering to racism. Which she is. If you are using her as a back up to your argument, then, frankly, shame on you.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

Yes, of course I'm saying Labour's policy should be clearly and unequivocally to support Ref2. Now. and at the next GE.

These are my answers to your other comments.

1) Yes. I know it will alienate Lab Leave voters. But you can't blithely state that and ignore the context. Labour has ALREADY alienated 6 million people who voted Lab in 2017. All the evidence is that those 6 million are predominantly Remain supporters. It is childish to say "yeah but...Lab Leave voters!" without addressing that fact.

In polls immediately after the 2017 Election, Labour were on low/mid-40s and the combined LD/Green share was about 7%. In the latest polls, Labour is on about 21% and the combined LD/Green share is 30%. In the 2017 GE, roughly 75% of Labour voters supported Remain and 25% supported Leave. In the latest polls, around 60% of Labour's (drastically reduced) support identify as Remain supporters and 40% as Leave voters in 2016. Meantime, currently FIFTY percent of all the electorate who voted Remain in 2016 now say they would vote for the LDs or Greens. That is around 24% of the entire electorate.

So, do the maths. Labour Leavers only ever made up around 10% of the electorate. People who voted Labour in 2017 and Remain in 2016 make up about 30% of the electorate. But only around EIGHT percent of the electorate voted Remain in 2016 and now say they would vote Labour. Labour has lost the support of nearly half the people who voted Remain in 2016, and 75% of the people who voted Remain in 2016 and Labour in 2017. Any comments on upsetting Lab Leavers is second and third order blathering nonsense in the face of those facts. It doesn't matter. If Labour can't attract back those enormous numbers of Remain supporters that they have chucked away, they will be destroyed in any GE scenario.

2. It may do. But the alternative, as I say is to be wiped out nationwide.

3. So what? That will not upset the 50+% of the population who think Brexit is a mistake.

4. Ah yes. the brainless, "uncertainty is affecting business, therefore we must get Brexit done" argument. I expect that from some in here, but I thought you were smarter than that. Why do you think uncertainty is affecting business?  It's not the uncertainty around the possibility that Brexit may be cancelled! It's the uncertainty about whether Brexit, if it happens, will be very bad or very, very VERY bad for business!

5. Not really worth answering if that is the best 5th point you can come up with.

Now. Let me put a simple question to YOU.

How do YOU think that Labour recovers from polling and national election positions not seen since the last of the tear gas was clearing from the fields of Flanders? What's your strategy?

[wilts rover]

Wilts.

I have no idea why on earth Flint is pandering to racism. Which she is. If you are using her as a back up to your argument, then, frankly, shame on you.

Ah, so anyone who doesn't agree with you is a racist now. It's not me who needs to feel shame. Give your head a wobble, read the article and letter, and come back with a proper answer.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts
What a stupid thing to say.

I'm basing my assessment of Flint on some of the disgraceful things she has said publicly, not on the fact that I disagree with her.

Your comment is symptomatic of the problems we have in reading what we want to believe, rather than engaging with facts.

Edit.

THIS is what I base my judgement of Flint on. Deliberately or ignorantly painting a false picture to justify dislike of immigrants.

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=268932.msg835969#msg835969

[wilts rover]

Billy

My citing of Flint is her as one of 26 signatories to a letter relating to Labour's Brexit policy published today. I am interested why you think she and other racists such as Sarah Champion, Stephen Kinnock, Lisa Nandy, Gloria De Piero and Jim Fitzpatrick don't know what the views of their own constituents and are wrong in their conclusions, yet you do?

Shocking comments by Flint though. It doesn't reflect well on the judgment of the former PM who appointed her a minister or previous LOTO who appointed her a shadow minister does it?