Talk Your Way Out Of This One Johnson

[BillyStubbsTears]

Labour will win Wakefield by a very large margin. Back to the differences there were in 97 or 01.

The LDs will win Tiverton, which will be a stellar change.

The lesson is clear. There is a very substantial anti-Tory mood throughout the country. It just coalesces around different parties in different places.

To truly represent the true will of the people, PR is essential. Without it, in an era where we don't have two-party dominance, either of the two main parties can win a landslide while not truly representing the expressed will of the people. That was as true when Thatcher and Blair were winning massive majorities on 43% of the vote, as it is now, when Johnson has done the same.

There is no honest argument against PR, and I've supported it throughout my adult life. The Tories will never support it, because there is almost never a right wing majority in the country. So with PR, they'd be out of power for generations.

The vast majority of the Labour membership support it. The one thing stopping Labour as a party supporting it us the fossilised opinions of the Unions, which want a left wing majority Govt on 38% of the vote. It's the biggest fight in our democracy over the next decade.

[SydneyRover]

Polling supports electoral reform.

Every political cohort bar tory and leave voters support change.

Every age group supports change bar 65+ 41-37% and 18-24yo line ball with don't knows. Where all adults are polled and evaluated together change is supported.

Every region of UK supports change esp' Wales and Scotland.

M & F support change.

Social grading. A,B,C1. Upper middle, middle middle and lower middle classes support change. C2, D, E. Skilled workers, working class and non-workers are narrowly edged out by don't knows.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-we-change-our-current-british-voting-system?crossBreak=c2de

Happy to be corrected regarding any of the above.

[wilts rover]

No chance the (current) Labour leadership will support PR. Because they know that the Labour Party IS a coalition and once PR is introduced it will splinter into sections. And they will be out of a job.

[wilts rover]

There we are then. Vote tonight:

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533708593836457984

[River Don]

A vote today before the by elections might give the piglet another chance to dash for escape.

[Filo]

There we are then. Vote tonight:

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533708593836457984

He’ll win the vote, resulting in massive defeats in both by elections and the Tory party will crash and burn over the next 12 months

[SydneyRover]

There we are then. Vote tonight:

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533708593836457984

He’ll win the vote, resulting in massive defeats in both by elections and the Tory party will crash and burn over the next 12 months

If it does he will spare nothing and noone in his quest to save himself

[Filo]

Should Johnson decide to call a General Election, it would be an interesting vote in the house, we now know the 54 letter threshold has been met, those 54 mp’s would be able to force a General Election, only that will not happen because a lot would lose their jobs and then it would publicly show what hypocrites they are

[SydneyRover]

Can johnson call an election without cabinet support?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Johnson can call a General Election whenever he wants. The Fixed Term Act has been repealed.

If Johnson calls one and the Cabinet (and the rest of the Tory party) doesn't publicly support him there could be a landslide defeat. It's the same principle that John Major resigned the leadership of the Conservatives in 1995 - to make the party publicly support him and try to quash the rebels. And we all know how successful that was!

[DonnyOsmond]

Come on Boris, you can win this!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

There we are then. Vote tonight:

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533708593836457984

He’ll win the vote, resulting in massive defeats in both by elections and the Tory party will crash and burn over the next 12 months

If he wins they'll get behind him. Politicians have survived much worse.

I hope he loses but doubt it and expect he'll win.

[Glyn_Wigley]

There we are then. Vote tonight:

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1533708593836457984

He’ll win the vote, resulting in massive defeats in both by elections and the Tory party will crash and burn over the next 12 months

If he wins they'll get behind him. Politicians have survived much worse.

I hope he loses but doubt it and expect he'll win.

Did they get behind Major?

[SydneyRover]

The government is a massive shopping trolley as it is and doesn't need a long dragged out execution of a lame duck leader but unfortunately I doubt they will be thinking about that in the near future if at all.

[River Don]

The noises coming out of no 10 suggests they want this vote to draw a line under it and move on.

But it's not going to draw a line under it. There are by elections, there is the standards commitee. If he gets through this tonight, it's going to keep coming back.

The only way to draw a line under it, is to replace him.

[BillyStubbsTears]

In the last 50 years, before today, 3 Tory PMs have faced votes of no confidence, it direct challenges for the leadership (which is what happened before recent changes to the process).

Thatcher in 1989 and 1990.
Major in 1995.
May in 2018.

Thatcher won the first comprehensively, won the second marginally and resigned.

Major won comprehensively. He lost the next election by a landslide.

May won pretty comfortably but resigned within 6 months.

So there's a theme. In my lifetime, no sitting Tory PM has lost a confidence vote or challenge. And none of them had ever won another General Election.

[mugnapper]

Be interesting to see if any Cabinet Ministers/ Junior ministers actually come out against him, rather than keeping silent.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The noises coming out of no 10 suggests they want this vote to draw a line under it and move on.

But it's not going to draw a line under it. There are by elections, there is the standards commitee. If he gets through this tonight, it's going to keep coming back.

The only way to draw a line under it, is to replace him.

But he'll be safe from another confidence vote for twelve months. Plenty of time to really screw the Tory party. And I wouldn't put it past Boris to cling on regardless of how close any vote might be.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Be interesting to see if any Cabinet Ministers/ Junior ministers actually come out against him, rather than keeping silent.

A few junior ministers have already gone over it. They can't come out against him without resigning because of Collective Responsibility.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Jesse Norman is one Tory MP I've long respected for his intellect and morals, even when I disagree with his conclusions.
This, from him, is devastating.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jesse_Norman/status/1533699235417403393

[SydneyRover]

It's an astonishing nose dive from winning in 2019 to being booed in public by his 'own' crowd. Is his ego that big it won't affect him, pity that poor dog.

[Filo]

Not that it will happen, but it would be funny upon Johnson winning the vote those 54+ tory MP’s crossed the floor?

[River Don]

The noises coming out of no 10 suggests they want this vote to draw a line under it and move on.

But it's not going to draw a line under it. There are by elections, there is the standards commitee. If he gets through this tonight, it's going to keep coming back.

The only way to draw a line under it, is to replace him.

But he'll be safe from another confidence vote for twelve months. Plenty of time to really screw the Tory party. And I wouldn't put it past Boris to cling on regardless of how close any vote might be.

Why do you think they are changing the rules, so they can have another vote of no confidence in just 3 months?

[SydneyRover]

If he loses the vote can anyone see him hanging around being an everyday MP? As we know he doesn't do detail or hard work which I think he would regard as drudgery.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The noises coming out of no 10 suggests they want this vote to draw a line under it and move on.

But it's not going to draw a line under it. There are by elections, there is the standards commitee. If he gets through this tonight, it's going to keep coming back.

The only way to draw a line under it, is to replace him.

But he'll be safe from another confidence vote for twelve months. Plenty of time to really screw the Tory party. And I wouldn't put it past Boris to cling on regardless of how close any vote might be.

Why do you think they are changing the rules, so they can have another vote of no confidence in just 3 months?

There's been talk of changing the rules but I haven't seen anything definite at all.

[Glyn_Wigley]

If he loses the vote can anyone see him hanging around being an everyday MP? As we know he doesn't do detail or hard work which I think he would regard as drudgery.

But if he left the Commons he'd have to do some real work for his money. As it is, he can pick up an MPs salary and do as little work as he wants. Probably whilst earning money doing something else at the same time anyway.

[River Don]

The noises coming out of no 10 suggests they want this vote to draw a line under it and move on.

But it's not going to draw a line under it. There are by elections, there is the standards commitee. If he gets through this tonight, it's going to keep coming back.

The only way to draw a line under it, is to replace him.

But he'll be safe from another confidence vote for twelve months. Plenty of time to really screw the Tory party. And I wouldn't put it past Boris to cling on regardless of how close any vote might be.

Why do you think they are changing the rules, so they can have another vote of no confidence in just 3 months?

There's been talk of changing the rules but I haven't seen anything definite at all.

They haven't done anything yet but once they lose these two by elections, they'll find a way to get rid.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The noises coming out of no 10 suggests they want this vote to draw a line under it and move on.

But it's not going to draw a line under it. There are by elections, there is the standards commitee. If he gets through this tonight, it's going to keep coming back.

The only way to draw a line under it, is to replace him.

But he'll be safe from another confidence vote for twelve months. Plenty of time to really screw the Tory party. And I wouldn't put it past Boris to cling on regardless of how close any vote might be.

Why do you think they are changing the rules, so they can have another vote of no confidence in just 3 months?

There's been talk of changing the rules but I haven't seen anything definite at all.

They haven't done anything yet but once they lose these two by elections, they'll find a way to get rid.

It'd need a good deal more than 54 backbenchers to change the rules.

[ravenrover]

Is it the 1922 commitee that can change the rules. The message coming out this morning he will win the vote but the key figure is by how many  if it is a narrow margin it seems pressure will be put on him from within the Tory party to resign. It would seem they will change the rules to allow a vote of no confidence in less than the current 12months. It all seems that he is on borrowed time. The 2 by elections results could well be the nail in the coffin as it would appear that they have accepted they will lose both

[drfchound]

If he loses the vote can anyone see him hanging around being an everyday MP? As we know he doesn't do detail or hard work which I think he would regard as drudgery.

But if he left the Commons he'd have to do some real work for his money. As it is, he can pick up an MPs salary and do as little work as he wants. Probably whilst earning money doing something else at the same time anyway.

But surely if he quits as PM he won’t need to work.
Not with all those fiddles he has allegedly done and the backhanders he has had from his mates.

Seriously though, I think the Tory’s know that Boris has to go and they need a new front man or woman.