Talk Your Way Out Of This One Johnson

[River Don]

No doubt there is a remainer faction gathering behind Hunt.

I can't see Hannon being a part of that though.

[tyke1962]

Well the blonde buffoon survives till the day he hmmm doesn't I suppose .

Which in reality plays out that the Tory Party will eat itself and virtually hand the next GE to a coalition government made up of Labour , SNP and possibly the Dems .

A word of warning though .

So much as hint at a return to the EU in any shape or form either pre election or post from any potential Government coalition and I can guarantee you'll put the Tories back in the game and once back in the game you can pretty much work out how that plays out at the ballot box .

So I'd respectively suggest to the active remainers , kindly shut the feck up .

Tyke, I have seen one poster on here say that he would be happy for Labour to put forward a manifesto to gain power then change to other policies afterwards.

No wonder Hound given the current Labour Leader didn't deliver on one of his leadership election pledges .

I wouldn't trust Starmer to deliver on a single promise .

He'd have torn up the 2016 referendum result and put it in the bin without even thinking about it .

[albie]

It would be a good result for Labour if he was going to last....but he isn't.

His best case is dragging on for another year, but if Tiverton is a wipeout, the Tories will change the rules to allow an earlier challenge.

No way are they going to allow him to blunder on to oblivion.
They need a new leader in place in time to let him (or her) gain traction with the public before 2024.

1) The time left for a replacement is now going to be much less than it would have been if they'd done Johnson in tonight.

2) Whoever the replacement is, it will be someone who voted for Johnson tonight. Gold dust for a Labour campaign.

3) The run up to the next election is going to be one of continued economic difficulty. Not brilliant for a new leader.

4) The Tory coalition now requires a leader to win support in Sevenoakes and Sunderland. That was Johnson's genius. It's a tough act to follow.

5) The state of the potential replacements...

I disagree with 2), BST. Jeremy Hunt was quite emphatic that he'd be voting against Johnson.

He's my tip for the next leader, and I think he could give Starmer trouble. JMHO.

BST,

1)
The Tories were never going to get rid now, but it is priced in to move him on before a GE.
Most think he will be gone before the Tory conference, possibly much sooner.
2)
It was a secret ballot, so nobody will know.
Far from being a boost to Labour, it is of no consequence.
No-one will remember, or give a toss.
3)
Agree
4)
Yes
5)
There will be more candidates than in recent history for the leadership.
The people to watch are those keeping schtum, or making a play of loyalty.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The one thing to remember is that 2 years is still a very long time, it will all change drastically come the general election.  Of course people vote very differently in those elections too.

[danumdon]

You would think that this far into the electoral cycle the opposition should be showing some sort of ground gained, its not as if Johnson's government hasn't given every opportunity to be exposed. To me Labour have not gained enough leverage from these last two years of none government. It should have been the biggest of own goals for any opposition to lay waste to the countless disasters Johnson has befallen on the Tories.

I'd say in two years time you should be looking at a totally different leadership with some semblance of competence to back up a GE campaign. I wonder if Labour will have some sort of policies in place that can be scrutinized for the obvious shortfall that will be on display, i don't think the electorate will fall for them trying on the Tories clothes.

More than all still to play for.

[SydneyRover]

Only a couple of weeks to the next battleground and hand to hand fighting in cabinet. There's talk already of the rebels positioning themselves for concessions on legislation, I doubt johnson and the johnson's will have time to organise themselves into a government and offer changes that will benefit the country. After that it will be skirmishes all the way until the tory party put the liar out of his misery, they just have to wait for the x-rays.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Of course we are a long way from the next election. But things have changed markedly from previous decades. Big percentages of the electorate used to swing directly from Lab to Con and back again on a year by year basis. Now we are far more tribal. Far fewer people swing between the main parties.

The reduction in Con support since the last election is mainly due to 2019 Con voters now saying Don't Know or Won't Vote. Some of them might go back for sure. But how many?

Similarly, about 10% of those who voted Lab in 2019 now say they will vote Green. But how many of them will stick to that when faced with effectively wasting their vote and letting the Tories back in come 2024?

Works both ways.

And there's another 12 months at least of grinding reduction in living standards to come, followed by, at best, a weak recovery.

Very much all still to play for, but the Tories just made it significantly harder for themselves last night.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well the blonde buffoon survives till the day he hmmm doesn't I suppose .

Which in reality plays out that the Tory Party will eat itself and virtually hand the next GE to a coalition government made up of Labour , SNP and possibly the Dems .

A word of warning though .

So much as hint at a return to the EU in any shape or form either pre election or post from any potential Government coalition and I can guarantee you'll put the Tories back in the game and once back in the game you can pretty much work out how that plays out at the ballot box .

So I'd respectively suggest to the active remainers , kindly shut the feck up .

Tyke, I have seen one poster on here say that he would be happy for Labour to put forward a manifesto to gain power then change to other policies afterwards.

No wonder Hound given the current Labour Leader didn't deliver on one of his leadership election pledges .

I wouldn't trust Starmer to deliver on a single promise .

He'd have torn up the 2016 referendum result and put it in the bin without even thinking about it .

I assume Hound is talking about me agreeing with BB a couple of weeks ago when he said Labour would try to get elected on the right, then move to the left.

Looks like irony is lost on some folk...

[SydneyRover]

An attempt from someone that helped this absolute scandal ridden government into power to not want anyone to refer to a reversal of possibly the dumbest political decision ever made this side of ww2. Thank you for the advice, not. Having said that, has anyone heard anyone at all talk of a reversal? It's difficult not to discuss the consequences as it is evidenced on a daily basis across the news, ask anyone that's been near an airport recently. I would respectfully suggest that anyone that voted for brexit automatically disqualifies themselves from taking up a political advisory roll.

[SydneyRover]

the Guardian

''One Conservative MP, Bob Seely, who supported Johnson in the confidence vote, said the point on tax cuts was about the “narrative” for the party, rather than specifically which taxes should be cut.

“The issue is [on tax cuts] – and I’m a big fan of David Frost – is that it is about an agenda and a narrative. We need to take people with us, saying this where we are going and what we are doing. A lack of direction is a serious thing … We need an agenda and we need to deliver the government that we said we were going to deliver.”''

Not about where or why tax cuts should be made just that they should be made because the tories want a mantra.

[tyke1962]

An attempt from someone that helped this absolute scandal ridden government into power to not want anyone to refer to a reversal of possibly the dumbest political decision ever made this side of ww2. Thank you for the advice, not. Having said that, has anyone heard anyone at all talk of a reversal? It's difficult not to discuss the consequences as it is evidenced on a daily basis across the news, ask anyone that's been near an airport recently. I would respectfully suggest that anyone that voted for brexit automatically disqualifies themselves from taking up a political advisory roll.

That's fine Syd .

Reverse Brexit , however put that in an election manifesto and let the electorate decide .

Now I know the Labour Party  has a real distaste for democracy but it seems fair enough to me .

You weren't thinking of pushing this through were you in coalition with the SNP and the Dems without a mandate from the electorate were you ?

[SydneyRover]

An attempt from someone that helped this absolute scandal ridden government into power to not want anyone to refer to a reversal of possibly the dumbest political decision ever made this side of ww2. Thank you for the advice, not. Having said that, has anyone heard anyone at all talk of a reversal? It's difficult not to discuss the consequences as it is evidenced on a daily basis across the news, ask anyone that's been near an airport recently. I would respectfully suggest that anyone that voted for brexit automatically disqualifies themselves from taking up a political advisory roll.

That's fine Syd .

Reverse Brexit , however put that in an election manifesto and let the electorate decide .

Now I know the Labour Party  has a real distaste for democracy but it seems fair enough to me .

You weren't thinking of pushing this through were you in coalition with the SNP and the Dems without a mandate from the electorate were you ?

Comprehension tyke, you need to work on it, that's not what I wrote.

[drfchound]

An attempt from someone that helped this absolute scandal ridden government into power to not want anyone to refer to a reversal of possibly the dumbest political decision ever made this side of ww2. Thank you for the advice, not. Having said that, has anyone heard anyone at all talk of a reversal? It's difficult not to discuss the consequences as it is evidenced on a daily basis across the news, ask anyone that's been near an airport recently. I would respectfully suggest that anyone that voted for brexit automatically disqualifies themselves from taking up a political advisory roll.

Well thankfully the above post doesn’t apply to me then.
A non Tory voter and a remain voter, that’s me.

[drfchound]

You would think that this far into the electoral cycle the opposition should be showing some sort of ground gained, its not as if Johnson's government hasn't given every opportunity to be exposed. To me Labour have not gained enough leverage from these last two years of none government. It should have been the biggest of own goals for any opposition to lay waste to the countless disasters Johnson has befallen on the Tories.

I'd say in two years time you should be looking at a totally different leadership with some semblance of competence to back up a GE campaign. I wonder if Labour will have some sort of policies in place that can be scrutinized for the obvious shortfall that will be on display, i don't think the electorate will fall for them trying on the Tories clothes.

More than all still to play for.

Only a couple of weeks to the next battleground and hand to hand fighting in cabinet. There's talk already of the rebels positioning themselves for concessions on legislation, I doubt johnson and the johnson's will have time to organise themselves into a government and offer changes that will benefit the country. After that it will be skirmishes all the way until the tory party put the liar out of his misery, they just have to wait for the x-rays.

Danumdon asked a question about what steps Labour might have taken to put themselves into a position to win the next GE.
Because the following poster hasn’t got a clue what has been done (like most of us don’t) then he focuses on Tory Party deficiencies.
I suppose it should be expected though from the man who doesn’t do answers.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

the Guardian

''One Conservative MP, Bob Seely, who supported Johnson in the confidence vote, said the point on tax cuts was about the “narrative” for the party, rather than specifically which taxes should be cut.

“The issue is [on tax cuts] – and I’m a big fan of David Frost – is that it is about an agenda and a narrative. We need to take people with us, saying this where we are going and what we are doing. A lack of direction is a serious thing … We need an agenda and we need to deliver the government that we said we were going to deliver.”''

Not about where or why tax cuts should be made just that they should be made because the tories want a mantra.

I tend to think his point initially is spot on.  Set the strategy, work on it, then formalise the detail.

Of course we are a long way from the next election. But things have changed markedly from previous decades. Big percentages of the electorate used to swing directly from Lab to Con and back again on a year by year basis. Now we are far more tribal. Far fewer people swing between the main parties.

The reduction in Con support since the last election is mainly due to 2019 Con voters now saying Don't Know or Won't Vote. Some of them might go back for sure. But how many?

Similarly, about 10% of those who voted Lab in 2019 now say they will vote Green. But how many of them will stick to that when faced with effectively wasting their vote and letting the Tories back in come 2024?

Works both ways.

And there's another 12 months at least of grinding reduction in living standards to come, followed by, at best, a weak recovery.

Very much all still to play for, but the Tories just made it significantly harder for themselves last night.

But what does the electorate know at the moment?  They know that they don't like the actions of pm and it is hard to see that changing.

The real question is how they will react to labours vision, if labour play that right and it appeals they should have a very good chance but we all know that's harder than criticising and pulling together their conflicting views is never easy.  It's also intriguing as to whether they can put together an offer for the long term as well as the short.

I'd put my money on some form of hung parliament for sure.

[SydneyRover]

'' tend to think his point initially is spot on.  Set the strategy, work on it, then formalise the detail''

Maybe you can tell me what the strategy is pud?

[drfchound]

Maybe you could too, but you won’t.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I remember someone who accused me of something terrible on this forum and refused to do answers when confronted about it.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

'' tend to think his point initially is spot on.  Set the strategy, work on it, then formalise the detail''

Maybe you can tell me what the strategy is pud?

I'm not an MP so I've no need to. All planned out in my own workplace though.

[drfchound]

I remember someone who accused me of something terrible on this forum and refused to do answers when confronted about it.

I vaguely remember that too Glyn and what you are saying isn’t strictly true.

[SydneyRover]

'' tend to think his point initially is spot on.  Set the strategy, work on it, then formalise the detail''

Maybe you can tell me what the strategy is pud?

I'm not an MP so I've no need to. All planned out in my own workplace though.

Just blindly following what any tory MP spouts then pud? wouldn't you want to see a strategy to improve efficiencies to help get inflation under control, tax cuts by themselves could prove to be a sugar hit and push it higher.

[SydneyRover]

PMQs

''Johnson claims he has alienated 148 of his Tory MPs because his government has done 'big, remarkable things'''

[drfchound]

PMQs

''Johnson claims he has alienated 148 of his Tory MPs because his government has done 'big, remarkable things'''

No he didn’t.
The Guardian article wrote those words at the head of the piece.

From the same article this is what he actually said:
And Johnson replied:

I can assure her in a long political career so far - barely begun - I’ve of course picked up political opponents all over and that is because this government has done some very big and very remarkable things which they didn’t necessarily approve of

[Glyn_Wigley]

I remember someone who accused me of something terrible on this forum and refused to do answers when confronted about it.

I vaguely remember that too Glyn and what you are saying isn’t strictly true.

'You know what I'm talking about' doesn't qualify as an answer.

What wasn't strictly true, bearing in mind you only remember it vaguely?

[albie]

Between declaring war on Ukraine and another gin and tonic, loose cannon Nadine Dorries spilt the beans on Bozo and his owners.
Tory donors want their poodle in place, and have paid top dollar for the privilege.

Tory commentator Peter Oborne sums it up here;
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uk-boris-johnson-confidence-vote-billionaires-useful-idiot

So the backing is contingent upon the fool being retained.
Good to have it confirmed that the money rules the roost, and without the spondoolies democracy just won't work!

[SydneyRover]

It's a good article Albie, Rafael Behr calls him ''biddable'' I been saying it for a long time. the link between big donors and politicians needs to be broken.


''Policy is not absent from the transaction. A wounded prime minister without convictions and desperate for friends is attractive to ideologues whose conditional backing can be wielded as a veto over the government’s agenda. That is why there was a U-turn last month over an anti-obesity plan that would have banned some junk food advertising and supermarket deals. MPs who hated the infringement of market freedoms threatened Johnson with letters of no confidence. He yielded.

This explains also why 22 Conservative donors, responsible for more than £18m in past contributions to party coffers, signed a letter offering “unwavering support” to the incumbent leader. A man fully on the hook to his political creditors is reliably biddable''

[Ldr]

It's a good article Albie, Rafael Behr calls him ''biddable'' I been saying it for a long time. the link between big donors and politicians needs to be broken

Assume that means unions too?

[albie]

Full transparency for all political organisations, Ldr.

How many people know about who donates to Tory funds, and the extent of their influence?
Labour have a public record of Union support, but this is reducing under Starmer.

Any funder should be looked at as seeking influence on policy through financial support.

[Ldr]

Agreed Albie

[River Don]

Yes, a very interesting read that Obourne piece.

The problem the billionaire donors are facing though is that their useful idiot is rapidly losing the common touch.

Difficult to keep a populist leader in place, who isn't very popular. No doubt the tory press will be doing all they can to reinvigorate his fortunes but that may not be so easy in a challenging economic climate.