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Quote from: foxbat on March 29, 2020, 12:41:19 pmThere was always the possibility of a pandemic. There were plenty of warnings over many years. But, were we prepared when #Covid19 arrived? No, of course not! Au contraire! All of the warnings were ignored. Even when we knew it was coming, the UK Government did nothing!Did nothing? NOSlow to react, YES
There was always the possibility of a pandemic. There were plenty of warnings over many years. But, were we prepared when #Covid19 arrived? No, of course not! Au contraire! All of the warnings were ignored. Even when we knew it was coming, the UK Government did nothing!
I despair with some people.This morning my wife saw four people (two different couples) visit our next door neighbour.The all hugged each other then stood around in a group, all close together, chatting.There was also a small child with them who had a kiss from everyone when they left to go home.Unbelievable that they are still doing this.
I despair with some people.This morning my wife saw four people (two different couples) visit our next door neighbour.They all hugged each other then stood around in a group, all close together, chatting.There was also a small child with them who had a kiss from everyone when they left to go home.Unbelievable that they are still doing this.
PS: For the mathematically minded, this is how I've worked out the doubling time.Assume the number of deaths D increases exponentially with time (t), so D has the form D=A.exp(b.t) with A being a constant and b being a function of time.So the first derivative of D wrt t D'=A.b.exp(b.t)Therefore at any time t, D'/D=bDefine the time at the start of a doubling period as T0 and the time to double as DT, so the time at the end of the doubling period is T0+DT.Then A.exp[b(T0+DT)]=2A.exp(bT0)Dividing through by A.exp(bT0) gives exp(b.DT)=2So DT=ln(2)/b or DT=ln(2).D/D'.In simple terms, if you want to know what the doubling time is in days, take the total number of deaths to date, divide it by the new deaths on that date and multiply the result by 0.7. And then hope and pray that that figure keeps generally going up.
I have had it with the BBC. I used to respect them and their output and loved the way people in overseas Countries always say " I listen to the BBC because they tell it how it is"And yet again I say I will never forgive them for editing the Johnson laughter out on the Leaders debate when they replayed the highlights next day thus altering it for anyone who had not seen it liveOn the night someone asked Johnson " do you think that Politicians should ensure they tell the truth"Johnson "absoutely - its critical" (thats the gist of it)Audience lots of them roared with laughter which showed for me they thought his answer was at the least ironic and at worst a lie in itselfNext morning BBC showed highlights and started with that missing out the laughter altogether and making his answer look upstanding and believable and BELIEVED.They can s**t for me from now on.
Bristol RR,I posted something similar earlier in the thread. It looks like the death figures might have a wide uncertainty range both within and across populations.More bad news as well.If this summary is correct, a 7 day isolation is just not going to cut the mustard;https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200327091234.htmOh dear!
Dominic Cummings is self-isolating at home after showing symptoms of coronavirus, a No 10 source confirmed.The prime minister's top adviser is understood to have fallen ill over the weekend and remains at home, while staying in contact with the Downing Street team during the quarantine period.
Quote from: albie on March 30, 2020, 12:01:38 amBristol RR,I posted something similar earlier in the thread. It looks like the death figures might have a wide uncertainty range both within and across populations.More bad news as well.If this summary is correct, a 7 day isolation is just not going to cut the mustard;https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200327091234.htmOh dear!We've known since January that the virus can be incubated for longer than a week.We know it can take longer than a week to recover.And we've known an apparently recovered individual can go on spreading it for a week after feeling better.7 days isolation in that case seems a very arbitrary figure, and certainly on the low side for safety. I was also reading that the 2 metre distance rule is not really far enough to be sure. Also it is not a good idea to stand downwind of someone on a breezy day, should you find yourself in a queue in a supermarket car park.
I still cannot grasp why they are including terminally ill patients who have hours/days to live.So no autopsy, just will say on death certificate that it's down to cv19 and not say pancreatic cancer.
So some people will die with it, but not of it?