Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

On those GDP figures, remember that the current stagnation comes after half a decade of very poor growth because of the insanity of Austerity. It all adds up to a historically poor decade. None of us alive today have seen our economy behave so poorly for so long. The fact that that is due to conscious decisions taken by the country is heartbreaking.

[albie]

Corbyn is in a difficult place, because the members and many Labour voters want different things;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/19/labour-would-lose-voters-with-stop-brexit-policy-poll-suggests

With the next round of amendments to the "revised" May deal, the numbers trend will hopefully become clearer.

The problem at the moment remains a lack of HoC support for Ref2. Until that changes it is difficult to see it as viable.

Things will change.....to what is not yet clear!

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

Come on. You can do better than to scrat around to find something that looks like it supports your case.

Have a look beyond the headline.

What in that article says anything whatsoever about  Labour voters (current or potential) wanting different things? Or about it being a problem if Labour pushed against Brexit?

[albie]

BST,

The point is we don't know the impact on voters....you don't, I don't and nor does anyone else.

Personally I think all polling is old school hocus pocus(since about 2010), and out of date within a short time span.

So the question becomes do you push the boat out and find you were completely wrong. No politician would take that risk.

The same dynamic is playing out in the Tories. May cannot satisfy all sections of her party, and knows the members will go for a Boris type in her place, given the chance.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Its a balancing act, where you move across shifting sands on the basis of probabilities.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You think polling is hocus pocus, so you post a link to a story about polls?

See, I've been there. In June 1983 I was completely certain that the polls were wrong. Reality has a way of bringing you up short.

Polls do get the detail wrong. That's inevitable. But if poll after poll is saying that Corbyn's approval rating is in the low 20s, me? I'd start to think about whether Corbyn might actually be really unpopular out there.

And if poll after poll said that supporting Brexiters would hit Labour far harder than opposing it, I might start to wonder whether having a leader who has wanted Brexiters for 40 years was a wise position.

That's just me though. I'm sure Jeremy knows what he's doing.

[albie]

The Populus poll was linked simply to show that there is great uncertainty about outcomes.
Whether it is accurate or not we don't know, but it flags up the general issue of predicting reliable consequences from policy statements.

The media are adept at tying you down to positions taken before a key change of context.
In a fluid situation, the most important consideration is to avoid being boxed in.

If Labour were to pitch for Ref2 now, it would allow May to present Ref2 as a Labour ploy to sidestep brexit, and consolidate her own position.

Corbyn is trying to isolate May from the warring factions within her party. The letter to May is really a letter to ConReb, and the EU.

It might work...it might not.
Lets not rush to judgment before next set of votes, eh!

Ps.
The time series on party positions in the polls is averaging around the 40% for both, give or take.
We know from recent elections that the polls are proving a less reliable indicator than in earlier years.

[bobjimwilly]

" The Financial Times says secret plans for the UK economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit include cutting taxes "
Why Tories are desperate for a no deal brexit in a nutshell

[SydneyRover]

Commonsense amongst the chaos ...................

''End uncertainty over no-deal Brexit, says ex-civil service chief.

 Lord Kerslake, the former head of the civil service, has urged the government to rule out a no-deal Brexit, saying ministers had the power to do so, to end the uncertainty that is gripping business and local government services.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4, Kerslake also called for a fresh referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, which he admitted might take as a long as a year to organise''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/end-uncertainty-over-no-deal-brexit-says-ex-civil-service-chief-lord-kerslake

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep, I'll accept that GE polls have been poor of late. That's to some extent due to the fact that the last three GEs have seen extraordinary circumstances. (Clegg-mania in 2010, the collapse of the LDs and rise of UKIP and the SNP in 2015, the collapse of UKIP in 2017). Those circumstances make it hard for pollsters to predict the result because of the fluidity of the electorate.

We're back in much more conventional times now, in England and Wales at least, with there being only two major parties.

All of that is irrelevant to the main thrust of my argument though.

1) All polling shows that Labour takes a very bad hit if it supports Brexit. The same polls show a much lesser impact (in some cases, none) for supporting Ref2.
2)Corbyn is at historically dreadful approval levels. Not just bad. Shockingly bad. It's really simple. No politician who goes through a period of 20% approval ratings is going great to get to No10. Because in practice, our system is quasi-presidential. When people go to vote, a good chunk of them are going to be thinking of who they want as PM. And Corbyn's performance over the past year has been dreadful, in terms of reaching out past the convinced. He's poured away the boost he got through his excellent campaigning in 2017 (Hey! If only he'd been that passionate in 2016...) That aspect of him has already been priced in. But his handling of Salisbury, the Jewish issue and Brexit has seen support for him draining away. I don't see much of that coming flooding back. Because even if we do have Ref2, he'll not get credit for it. Because it's clear from every breath he breathes that he doesn't want it.

[Not Now Kato]

Here's the US perspective on out 'taking back control'
 
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/us-lobbyists-brexit_uk_5c5b26c6e4b00187b5579f64?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage
 

[Not Now Kato]

and here's another
 
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2019/02/08/leave-campaigners-self/

[Not Now Kato]

But it's not all doom and gloom.  Just look at the jobs being created by Brexit -
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/brexit-no-deal-crisis-command-centre-starts-hiring-civilians
 
You couldn't make it up!

[SydneyRover]

''Labour MPs who back Tory Brexit face moment of reckoning, say activists, Labour activists are to target 30 Labour MPs with warnings of “a moment of reckoning” including deselections unless they vote down any Brexit deal brought by Theresa May, organising phone banks and campaign days to pile pressure on MPs''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/labour-mps-who-back-tory-brexit-face-moment-of-reckoning-say-activists

Anything that will stop Brexit, go for it.

[hoolahoop]

Anybody wanting Brexit after reading the above truly wants his/her head seeing to .

People of Doncaster,  NONE of this is in your best interests .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well.

Good historians, when they write about monumental events, often find little anecdotes that capture the spirit of the time.

When the events are tragic, they might pick a grimly humourous little story.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47182361

Future historians of Brexit will be spoilt for f**king choice, but this shambles won't be far from the top of the list.

[Axholme Lion]

Brexit is happening. Deal with it. Just because a handful of you on here don't want it, don't think you represent the majority of people in the country.

[Muttley]

Brexit is happening. Deal with it. Just because a handful of you on here don't want it, don't think you represent the majority of people in the country.

63% of the electorate didn't vote for Brexit in the referendum

[Axholme Lion]

Brexit is happening. Deal with it. Just because a handful of you on here don't want it, don't think you represent the majority of people in the country.

63% of the electorate didn't vote for Brexit in the referendum

But the ones who could be bothered getting off their backsides won the vote.

[wilts rover]

A spot of light reading & a warning to Brexiteers that to make sure Brexit happens on 29th March - remove the metal bits from your bras....

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/01/29/brexit-has-become-a-doomsday-cult/

[Glyn_Wigley]

Brexit is happening. Deal with it. Just because a handful of you on here don't want it, don't think you represent the majority of people in the country.

Do you think it's still the majority opinion?

[BillyStubbsTears]

There are polls most weeks asking if people think the decision to leave was right or wrong.

Immediately after the vote, there were big majorities saying it was right.

As the clusterf**k has gathered pace, it's flipped round. In the last 18 months there have been 70 polls. ONE had a majority saying the decision was right.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

[IDM]

Brexit is happening. Deal with it. Just because a handful of you on here don't want it, don't think you represent the majority of people in the country.

Since the referendum it has been down to our politicians to “deal with” Brexit..

How have they managed??

Regardless of the referendum result the whole thing has since been a rolling goat f**k, I really can’t imagine anyone being happy with the situation now..

Can you.? So how should we just deal with it.??

Get your fingers out of your ears, and your head out  of the f**king sand.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wasting your time IDM.
You're not going to change the minds of folk like AL. There's about 25% of the population who are utterly immune to any rational discussion on the topic.

The job is to get folk who actually engage with thinking about Brexit to realise the consequences.

[BillyStubbsTears]

As I also say TRB, there are days I wonder if Corbyn is a long term plant by the Tories to destroy the Labour party.

Back in December, a YG poll said Labour support drops from 36% to 22% if they support Brexit in a GE. A couple of days later, Corbyn writes a piece in the papers saying he wants a GE and he would campaign supporting Brexit.

Last week, the TSSA had polling done which they passed onto Momentum. It said that supporting Leave would be as bad for Labour as the Iraq War. A few days later, Corbyn writes a letter to May offering a process by which Labour will facilitate Leave.

It's utterly perverse.

But if course, those who have drunk the Holy Water of the Church of the Blessed St Jeremy are certain it's a brilliantly conceived plan to...

...well it doesn't matter what it's designed to do. It's Jeremy's idea therefore it must be infallible.

When I talk about Corbyn in quasi-religious terms, it's obviously for comedic effect. Pointing out that Corbynistas are so averse to accepting any criticism of their man, that it's as though they consider him to be the Son of God.

Of course, I don't REALLY think that they hold him up as a saintly icon. It's just a technique to highlight the lack of critical appraisal going on.

And then THIS today from the head of the Communications Workers Union.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveWardGS/status/1094514205565300736

Corbyn was put on this earth to right all wrongs apparently.

[SydneyRover]

''Chris Grayling’s glassy-eyed confidence doesn’t help with Brexit debacle''

''as psychologists term it, an unconscious incompetent''

''Will Grayling go? In less chaotic times, with a governing party united and in control of events, a prime minister would surely not give him the choice. Yet Grayling appears to genuinely believe he sees things clearer than those around him: as psychologists term it, an unconscious incompetent, the worst kind of useless. Those who have watched Grayling deny all responsibility for the dysfunction of the railways – even to the point where he blamed others for an industry board he had just established and appointments he had personally overseen – won’t be putting much money on him doing the decent thing''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/chris-grayling-transport-glassy-eyed-confidence-doesnt-help-with-brexit-debacle

[BillyStubbsTears]

I've just noticed that one of Theresa May's closest political allies over Brexiters is called James Brokenshire.

How apt. I wonder if she has another ally called Peter f**kedupnation.

[wilts rover]

As I also say TRB, there are days I wonder if Corbyn is a long term plant by the Tories to destroy the Labour party.

Back in December, a YG poll said Labour support drops from 36% to 22% if they support Brexit in a GE. A couple of days later, Corbyn writes a piece in the papers saying he wants a GE and he would campaign supporting Brexit.

Last week, the TSSA had polling done which they passed onto Momentum. It said that supporting Leave would be as bad for Labour as the Iraq War. A few days later, Corbyn writes a letter to May offering a process by which Labour will facilitate Leave.

It's utterly perverse.

But if course, those who have drunk the Holy Water of the Church of the Blessed St Jeremy are certain it's a brilliantly conceived plan to...

...well it doesn't matter what it's designed to do. It's Jeremy's idea therefore it must be infallible.

When I talk about Corbyn in quasi-religious terms, it's obviously for comedic effect. Pointing out that Corbynistas are so averse to accepting any criticism of their man, that it's as though they consider him to be the Son of God.

Of course, I don't REALLY think that they hold him up as a saintly icon. It's just a technique to highlight the lack of critical appraisal going on.

And then THIS today from the head of the Communications Workers Union.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaveWardGS/status/1094514205565300736

Corbyn was put on this earth to right all wrongs apparently.

Yes agreed. Corbyn (although the letter was actually written in conjunction with Starmer) proposing a compromise deal that is welcomed by organisations such as:

the EU - https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1093567779888943106
              https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-verhofstadt-labour-european-parliament-theresa-may-backstop-a8767931.html
the Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/bfc55820-2ace-11e9-88a4-c32129756dd8
the CBI - Caroline Fairburn on Sophy Ridge this am

moderate Tories - https://twitter.com/NickBoles

trade experts - https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK

...is disgraceful. How dare he! Sorting out Brexit - the b*****d. Seems it's not only Corbynistas that don't like compromise.

There is however one major flaw to his plan - what will he do if May accepts it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

More Whataboutery Wilts.

[bpoolrover]

Wasting your time IDM.
You're not going to change the minds of folk like AL. There's about 25% of the population who are utterly immune to any rational discussion on the topic.

The job is to get folk who actually engage with thinking about Brexit to realise the consequences.

you don’t discuss things thou bst, what you do is when someone puts any link up you don’t agree with you discredit whoever wrote it or you say look behind the headline, yet when you post stuff everything is off who you believe to be credible, albie posted that some labour want different things which could cause a problem and he is right, there are many labour voters who 1 won’t vote labour if Corbyn is leader and 2 if they go against brexit even if it does not say it in any link you no it to be true

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bpool

A bit tough to follow that brain dump, but I think what you're saying is precisely what I've been saying for the past 18 months.