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I suppose the significant difference between us is that whilst you post links to this that and the other from publications that tell you what you want to hear .Others possibly have real life experience and voted accordingly when they were given the opportunity .It would appear that over 50% had real life experience as oppose to reading The Guardian online in Australia .Real life tends to play out at the ballot box and despite its obvious critics is pretty much final and even more so in a referendum as oppose to the rigged electoral system we have in the UK .If the EU was that great to enough of the electorate we'd still be in it .Hmm the ballot box says different but if you want to slide up to the ghost of Thatcher then knock yourself out cobber .
''In January 2018, the UK government's own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario''https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit#:~:text=Immediate%20impact%20on%20the%20UK%20economy,-Immediate%20impact%20of&text=Studies%20published%20in%202018%20estimated,by%200.6%25%20and%201.3%25.Did anyone see this on a bus?
Branton.I see there's no shifting you on accepting economic prediction on the effect of putting up trade barriers.So how about evidence of what HAS happened.The OBR calculates that, by August last year, the effect of Brexit had been to reduce our trade with the EU by 15.8%.https://obr.uk/box/the-initial-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade-with-the-eu/You still insistent on sticking to the line that the costs are tiny?
Brexit Benefits so far seem only -"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 19, 2022, 12:28:36 pmBranton.I see there's no shifting you on accepting economic prediction on the effect of putting up trade barriers.So how about evidence of what HAS happened.The OBR calculates that, by August last year, the effect of Brexit had been to reduce our trade with the EU by 15.8%.https://obr.uk/box/the-initial-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-trade-with-the-eu/You still insistent on sticking to the line that the costs are tiny?BillyStop misquoting me to repeat myself "I did not state the overall cost of Brexit is tiny. I said the additional costs at the border are relatively tiny (see JD Sports). Earlier in this thread I estimated the cost of Brexit to Dec 19 to be 2% of GDP." 2% is not tiny.I'd be more willing to consider the credibility of your quoted economic predictions if you could describe how they were derived and what assumptions underlie them.As for your OBR article. 2 major problems: -1) Your 15.8% is not calculated by the OBR but by the Centre of European Reform who per their web site are based in London and are "devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world. We are pro-European". So hardly politically neutral then.2) It's only comparing the first 8 months of 2021 v 2019. January 21 EU exports were down 45% due to the new rules being introduced. Dec 20 EU exports however were unusually high (2nd highest since March 19). Clearly business' were understandably getting exports in before the new rules arrived (the same appears to have happened in Dec 21). No such pattern in non-EU exports. The data being compared is therefore skewed.Comparing the whole of 2021 to 2019 i.e. pre-pandemic using ONS data:- EU exports were 11.1% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl4/mret- Non-EU exports were 14.0% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl7/mretPlease point out the Brexit hit.I suggest you investigate and corroborate your data before sharing it on here and asking me to comment on it. Because you can be damned sure I will and I don't particularly like showing people up. You still insistent on sticking to the line that Brexit will cause GDP to fall by as much as 8%?!
Quote from: foxbat on February 19, 2022, 08:16:13 pmBrexit Benefits so far seem only -"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.
Brexit Benefits so far seem only -"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.
Or maybe this real life experience:I've just noticed a new benefit of Brexit in Tesco, all oranges had on their label "treated with Imazalil"The use of this chemical is banned in the EU as it exerts a high inflammatory potential & causes leukocytosis.Small amounts are dangerous as it accumulates in organshttps://twitter.com/MikeEllis132/status/1494386788827377665Lower food standards mean greater profits for the shareholders at mulitnationals - with greater risk to workers who produce them and people who eat them.
As I've said you can all quote and link what ever you want to endorse what you want to read it much doesn't matter to me .The single market was a part Thatcher creation and fully endorsed by that women .That's a solid fact and you navigate yourselves around that fact all you want but it's still fact .Anytime anybody who puts their name to anything Thatcher had a hand in should probably have a deep look in to what it is they actually stand for .But hey ho it's better to be Thatcher with a red rosette on ?Ain't that the truth .
Quote from: tyke1962 on February 19, 2022, 11:00:36 pmAs I've said you can all quote and link what ever you want to endorse what you want to read it much doesn't matter to me .The single market was a part Thatcher creation and fully endorsed by that women .That's a solid fact and you navigate yourselves around that fact all you want but it's still fact .Anytime anybody who puts their name to anything Thatcher had a hand in should probably have a deep look in to what it is they actually stand for .But hey ho it's better to be Thatcher with a red rosette on ?Ain't that the truth .when did you find out the guardian was run by a trust and has a charter tyke and not owned by billionaires .................... do you require reminding each week?
Quote from: Branton Red on February 19, 2022, 08:21:27 pmQuote from: foxbat on February 19, 2022, 08:16:13 pmBrexit Benefits so far seem only -"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.Because UK goods are now much more expensive to EU customers, and they will now buy from cheaper suppliers inside the Single Market. It is that simple.
Quote from: foxbat on February 19, 2022, 08:16:13 pmBrexit Benefits so far seem only -"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.
Brexit Benefits so far seem only -"reintroduced our iconic blue passports" (could have been done in the EU anyway) and "enabling businesses to use a crown stamp symbol on pint glasses" – which were also never banned by the EU.The latest figures show that UK exports to the EU have fallen by £20 billion since Brexit. Those are some expensive passports and pint glasses.
Hi WiltsYes I'm sureCheck the figures on the links I provided.The Guardian are comparing to 2018 levels not 2019. I assume for political expediency. There was a large rise in non-EU exports between 2018 and 2019 (6%) which they dismiss by quoting a year earlier.The Guardian also state non-EU exports fell £10bn or 6% vs 2018 - this is incorrect it's £15bn and 9%.Like I said always double check the sources you quote
WiltsTo be clear my figures are from ONS stats see below extract from my earlier post to BST"Comparing the whole of 2021 to 2019 i.e. pre-pandemic using ONS data:- EU exports were 11.1% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl4/mret- Non-EU exports were 14.0% lower www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/fsl7/mretPlease point out the Brexit hit."
Yes thanks BrantonThese are the graphs from the ONS figures. As I said whilst exports have pretty much flatlined, what jumps out to me is the rise in Non-EU imports.Presumably thats a Brexit benefit?
Quote from: Branton Red on February 19, 2022, 08:21:27 pmIt's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.Because UK goods are now much more expensive to EU customers, and they will now buy from cheaper suppliers inside the Single Market. It is that simple.
It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.
Also, here's a thing.The exports of Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands (I got bored searching after those first 5) are all at levels as high or higher than they were before COVID. Ours are very much lower.Which is why the report that the OBR quoted (hands up: my mistake, it wasn't the OBR's own work) compares our trend to a datum based on the trends of similar countries, rather than taking our own figures in isolation. Unfortunately, Branton, despite his clear intelligence, does the Zeitgeist thing of off handedly ignoring that analysis because it comes from the other side.Then he says I suffer from confirmation bias.Hey ho...