0 Members and 13 Guests are viewing this topic.
This doesn't look good.Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.
Quote from: SydneyRover on March 15, 2020, 12:20:39 pmGood news and bad newsGood news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.How many confirmed cases are in your area?Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figuresThere are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 Marchhttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.
Good news and bad newsGood news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.How many confirmed cases are in your area?Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figuresThere are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 Marchhttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274
Quote from: IDM on March 15, 2020, 12:46:23 pmQuote from: SydneyRover on March 15, 2020, 12:20:39 pmGood news and bad newsGood news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.How many confirmed cases are in your area?Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figuresThere are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 Marchhttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.I know of one case self isolating at home
Quote from: River Don on March 15, 2020, 12:59:39 pmThis doesn't look good.Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.I have not seen that in the Netherlands. Do you have a source/link? The information from the RIVM has been that all the fatalities have been over 70 with underlying health issues.I have obviously been following the progression here in the Netherlands, and over the last few days (in fact, over 10 days now) the increase in infections rate has progressively gone down. The last increase was 18% form yesterday to today. It is, infact, the lowest daily increase so far.That's interesting to me because there was (until the last couple of days) basically very little response from anyone here. The gov have been very slow/relaxed about it. But the cases are not going up as dramatically as might be expected.[/https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/dutch-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-20-new-measures-due-in-brabant/
The eight overnight deaths involved people aged 59 to 94 and most had underlying health problems, the RIVM said.
Quote from: River Don on March 15, 2020, 12:59:39 pmThis doesn't look good.Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.I have not seen that in the Netherlands. Do you have a source/link? The information from the RIVM has been that all the fatalities have been over 70 with underlying health issues.I have obviously been following the progression here in the Netherlands, and over the last few days (in fact, over 10 days now) the increase in infections rate has progressively gone down. The last increase was 18% form yesterday to today. It is, infact, the lowest daily increase so far.That's interesting to me because there was (until the last couple of days) basically very little response from anyone here. The gov have been very slow/relaxed about it. But the cases are not going up as dramatically as might be expected.
BST,Yes, it is reported cases not ACTUAL.The point being that you will never know the actual figure, only an estimate based on deaths and assumptions about non-declared recoveries.You say the modelling is based upon "well validated epidemic models". Any models can only be referenced to data from other flu-like contagion, I am unaware of any modelled specifically to Covid 19. Do you know of any such?It is perfectly possible that Covid-19 will follow a different path.Your last paragraph says "it will take 4 weeks for us to get from our actual current number of cases (about 10,000) to the number of real cases that Italy currently has (probably about 150,000)".Both of those figures are estimates, and there is no indication in the confidence of the forecasts. The issue is that there are wide error bars on the calculation, such that it is very difficult to target a specific point of intervention. Yet the UK strategy hinges upon being able to do just that.......unless you think that the UK is holding back precisely to allow infection to spread in pursuit of early "herd immunity".All of which is why some in the scientific community are asking for the modelling and its data inputs to be open, not inside a "black box".
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.
If that Milanese doctor is to be believed, it seems they don't have enough rescources to treat anyone in critical care above the age of 60. They are just left to peg it.This will be one reason why the figures are so disproportionately weighted towards the older generation.
It seems some western countries are shutting down testing for all but those with severe symtoms in hospital.Flying in the face of evidence from South Korea which shows that mass testing can help to halt the spread of the virus.
Quote from: Filo on March 15, 2020, 03:56:20 pmQuote from: IDM on March 15, 2020, 12:46:23 pmQuote from: SydneyRover on March 15, 2020, 12:20:39 pmGood news and bad newsGood news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.How many confirmed cases are in your area?Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figuresThere are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 Marchhttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.I know of one case self isolating at homeIs that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.
Quote from: drfchound on March 15, 2020, 04:09:14 pmQuote from: Filo on March 15, 2020, 03:56:20 pmQuote from: IDM on March 15, 2020, 12:46:23 pmQuote from: SydneyRover on March 15, 2020, 12:20:39 pmGood news and bad newsGood news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.How many confirmed cases are in your area?Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figuresThere are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 Marchhttps://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.I know of one case self isolating at homeIs that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.Yes