Brexit deal

[albie]

The Maybot is desperate to hold the warring factions in the Tory Party from full on blue on blue civil war.
At some point, she will have to face the fact that this is not acheivable, in the circumstances she has created.

If Treeza were a bright lass, she would agree to rule out "no deal", and widen the potential support base for a viable alternative.

The ERG would be livid, but also between a rock and a hard place.
They are content to drift towards the rocks, as long as no deal remains the default.

Once it is off the table, they can either row in behind a revision brought via an amendment, or split off from the parliamentary Tory Party.

There would be payback from the members for May, but she is standing down anyway, so does not need to keep them sweet.

But Treeza is not the sharpest blade in the toolbox......not by a long chalk!

[SydneyRover]

The Maybot is desperate to hold the warring factions in the Tory Party from full on blue on blue civil war.
At some point, she will have to face the fact that this is not acheivable, in the circumstances she has created.

If Treeza were a bright lass, she would agree to rule out "no deal", and widen the potential support base for a viable alternative.

The ERG would be livid, but also between a rock and a hard place.
They are content to drift towards the rocks, as long as no deal remains the default.

Once it is off the table, they can either row in behind a revision brought via an amendment, or split off from the parliamentary Tory Party.

There would be payback from the members for May, but she is standing down anyway, so does not need to keep them sweet.

But Treeza is not the sharpest blade in the toolbox......not by a long chalk!

Here is a list of names of those people that think a no-deal brexit will not happen and May will have to compromise or go ..............

https://simple.wikiquote.org/wiki/List_of_people_by_name

[DonnyOsmond]

So your saying these discussions that are happening, aren't happening?

If you can call something like :

"What will you compromise on, PM?"

"Nothing, you have to vote for my deal"

"Goodbye"

as a discussion, then yes, they are taking place.

Oh, you've been invited to them have you?

That's what been reported by the BBC as happening. The other parties (LibDems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green), although they have met with her have also asked May to take No Deal off the table before talking and she's refused, so end of discussion.

What's your version of what has been happening?

She'd be damn right stupid if she took no deal off the table, it's her strongest bargaining chip.

it's a funny bargaining chip when it's preventing other parties from being persuaded to back her in Parliament.

It's not preventing them at all.
The irony that is lost on you is that in order to stop exiting on WTO terms, then NOW is the time for sensible discussion and discourse.
If they don't come to the table, they are proving themselves to be self serving idiots.
WTO terms is a real possibility otherwise.
Much more likely than a people's vote.

May is playing a blinder here.

Self serving? May's literally sticking to her guns so she doesn't piss off the ERG. If she agreed with the other parties she'd have a section of her own party wanting her gone that very moment, so she's doing this to stay as Tory leader.

[Boomstick]

BS

No Deal/WTO Brexit isn't on the agenda. There are 550+ MPs who will not allow it.

If May doesn't see sense and kill that idea, she will be sidelined, by Cabinet, Tory Party or the Commons and a bill will be brought to put that stupid concept where it belongs.

It's not a 'concept' . It's the CURRENT default position.

[TommyC]

Indeed. And what I'm waiting for someone to explain to me (because I genuinely do not know) is the Parliamentary process that will happen to thwart a no deal. The fact that there are allegedly hundreds of MPs against it is all well and good. But Article 50 is enshrined in UK Law. Overturning that requires the government support overturning it and the same goes for a second referendum.

I'm interested to know how certain people can be so absolutely and vehemently convinced that no deal is never going to happen. It really doesn't appear that clear cut to me. Hence the vote of no confidence, of which there will be more and the "amendment" to the Finance Bill last week. If it were so simple to revoke or delah article 50, why haven't they done it yet?

The closer we get to a no deal, the more votes of no confidence you are going to see. Hence my earlier comment that those 30 Europhile MPs are at some point going to find themselves choosing between no deal or bringing down the government.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tommy.

To get why we won't have No Deal, you have to clearly see why it's being threatened.

No one, beyond a couple of dozen utter nutcases in the ERG want it.

Because it would be a catastrophe.

May doesn't want it because leading the country into that disaster would cement her legacy as not just the worst PM of all time, but the worst imaginable.

Most of the Tory Brexiteers don't want it because, despite outward appearances, they are not thick or impervious to facts.

May is hanging out the possibility of no deal to try to bully people into supporting her deal.

Over the next few weeks, either opposition to her deal with crumble and she'll get it passed (plot spoiler: that won't happen) or it will become clear that no variant of her deal will pass. At that point, either May will crack, or she will be effectively sidelined by Cabinet and the move to delay A50 will kick in.

Meantime, even the few Cabinet ministers who claim that No Deal will be fine do not actually mean that. They are manoeuvring in order to be able to claim to the rabidly Euro-sceptic Tory membership that it was not they who blocked No Deal. It was the traitors on the Left and Centre of the party.

No deal is being used for political posturing purposes. It WILL be sidelined when we get to the cliff edge.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I agree mostly with BST. I more expect movement on the deal not to a full customs union but variant on it.

[drfchound]

The Maybot is desperate to hold the warring factions in the Tory Party from full on blue on blue civil war.
At some point, she will have to face the fact that this is not acheivable, in the circumstances she has created.

If Treeza were a bright lass, she would agree to rule out "no deal", and widen the potential support base for a viable alternative.

The ERG would be livid, but also between a rock and a hard place.
They are content to drift towards the rocks, as long as no deal remains the default.

Once it is off the table, they can either row in behind a revision brought via an amendment, or split off from the parliamentary Tory Party.

There would be payback from the members for May, but she is standing down anyway, so does not need to keep them sweet.

But Treeza is not the sharpest blade in the toolbox......not by a long chalk!

Very condescending to try to claim that TM is a bit thick.

[wing commander]

   Public perception is everything,...They are all as bad as each other,May is making an absolute balls of it and Corbyn is somehow managing to lose public support for the labour party at the same time..

   The public perception from most people after the events of the last ten days is the lot of them whatever party they represent are more interested in there own political gains than whats best for the country...I don't think the public has ever been more fed up than they are now..Everyone I speak to says the same..If they are Tory's they are ashamed of this government and if they are Labour they say that Corbyns incompetent...Cant comment on the Liberals,i don't know any..lol

[Glyn_Wigley]

Indeed. And what I'm waiting for someone to explain to me (because I genuinely do not know) is the Parliamentary process that will happen to thwart a no deal. The fact that there are allegedly hundreds of MPs against it is all well and good. But Article 50 is enshrined in UK Law. Overturning that requires the government support overturning it and the same goes for a second referendum.

I'm interested to know how certain people can be so absolutely and vehemently convinced that no deal is never going to happen. It really doesn't appear that clear cut to me. Hence the vote of no confidence, of which there will be more and the "amendment" to the Finance Bill last week. If it were so simple to revoke or delah article 50, why haven't they done it yet?

The closer we get to a no deal, the more votes of no confidence you are going to see. Hence my earlier comment that those 30 Europhile MPs are at some point going to find themselves choosing between no deal or bringing down the government.

https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2258078687850197/

[Ldr]

There is a good argument to be made about public perception over policy.

Cameron beat Miliband and Brown because he looked more pm  material

Blair beat Major / Howard / Hague? For the same reason

Any beat Kinnock see above

Does the look have a big psychological input?

Currently no one looks pm material

Forgive any innacuracies it's been a long morning

[Not Now Kato]

Meanwhile, the deceit goes on and on and on....
 
https://www.facebook.com/scientistsforeu/videos/1725344147571743/
 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Interesting piece by Preston, Glyn.

That sums up what I mean by being worried about May's connection with reality. She is outwardly acting as though she truly was a Strong and Stable leader. She's behaving as though she is dictating the agenda.

But she's not dictating anything. No-one is listening to her. She doesn't have the power to direct anyone to follow the path that she wants.

It's bizarre and, from a human point of view, a bit sad to watch. She's acting like she thinks she's Churchill. Everyone else sees her as Captain Mainwaring. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

LDR

That is a very important point you make there.

Most people's engagement with politics is extremely superficial.

So it didn't matter that Hague regularly tied Blair in knots at PMQs. Hague looked like a foetus and Blair looked commanding.

Similarly, it didn't matter that Milliband and Balls comprehensively won the argument on Austerity. One of them looked like Wallace choking on a bacon sarnie and the other one blinked a lot. Whereas Cameron had that patrician air of calm confidence.

In 2008/9, at the depths of the Great Crash, a (Tory supporting) journalist from The Sunday Times shadowed Gordon Brown for 2 months and write articles about what he was doing to trying to save the British economy, and persuade global leaders to do similar things.

She said that she had been astonished at Brown's command of facts, rapid judgement, and ability to argue a case logically and firmly. She (a Tory) said that she came away from the experience with a deep respect for Brown that was entirely at odds with the bumbling, bungling, morose loser that was his public image. She said it was inevitable that he would lose the next Election because of that image. And she finished by saying that, if that were the case, we, the electorate, would get what we deserved.

[GazLaz]

Interesting piece by Preston, Glyn.

That sums up what I mean by being worried about May's connection with reality. She is outwardly acting as though she truly was a Strong and Stable leader. She's behaving as though she is dictating the agenda.

But she's not dictating anything. No-one is listening to her. She doesn't have the power to direct anyone to follow the path that she wants.

It's bizarre and, from a human point of view, a bit sad to watch. She's acting like she thinks she's Churchill. Everyone else sees her as Captain Mainwaring. 

She’s not a “normal” person though is she. The world is evolving so fast and the parliamentary system is still the same as it was 200 years ago and we end up with leaders like May. The whole system needs changing. You only have to watch the way MPs behave in the commons. It’s completely unprofessional at times and a lot of them just appear rude with their shouting out and grumbling. It’s completely outdated.

[RedJ]

Interesting piece by Preston, Glyn.

That sums up what I mean by being worried about May's connection with reality. She is outwardly acting as though she truly was a Strong and Stable leader. She's behaving as though she is dictating the agenda.

But she's not dictating anything. No-one is listening to her. She doesn't have the power to direct anyone to follow the path that she wants.

It's bizarre and, from a human point of view, a bit sad to watch. She's acting like she thinks she's Churchill. Everyone else sees her as Captain Mainwaring. 

That's a bit generous. Captain Birdseye would appear more statesmanlike than her.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Actually, I'm quite pleased with that Captain Mainwaring analogy. He had a massively over-inflated sense of his own ability and authority. He "led" a team that squabbled like kids, were absolutely hopeless at what they were doing, and were convinced that nasty Europeans were trying to destroy their way of life. When faced with the enemy, he had nothing whatsoever  to fight with. And everything he touched turned to shite.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Actually, I'm quite pleased with that Captain Mainwaring analogy. He had a massively over-inflated sense of his own ability and authority. He "led" a team that squabbled like kids, were absolutely hopeless at what they were doing, and were convinced that nasty Europeans were trying to destroy their way of life. When faced with the enemy, he had nothing whatsoever  to fight with. And everything he touched turned to shite.

Nah, Mainwaring's troops actually followed him.

Oh, and , even though they were hopeless and had no real weaponry, you know that every one of them would fight to the death regardless if faced with the real enemy.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Interesting piece by Preston, Glyn.

That sums up what I mean by being worried about May's connection with reality. She is outwardly acting as though she truly was a Strong and Stable leader. She's behaving as though she is dictating the agenda.

But she's not dictating anything. No-one is listening to her. She doesn't have the power to direct anyone to follow the path that she wants.

It's bizarre and, from a human point of view, a bit sad to watch. She's acting like she thinks she's Churchill. Everyone else sees her as Captain Mainwaring. 

That's a bit generous. Captain Birdseye would appear more statesmanlike than her.

"Vote for my deal or you'll never see your kids again!"

[RedJ]

Actually, I'm quite pleased with that Captain Mainwaring analogy. He had a massively over-inflated sense of his own ability and authority. He "led" a team that squabbled like kids, were absolutely hopeless at what they were doing, and were convinced that nasty Europeans were trying to destroy their way of life. When faced with the enemy, he had nothing whatsoever  to fight with. And everything he touched turned to shite.

Nah, Mainwaring's troops actually followed him.

Oh, and , even though they were hopeless and had no real weaponry, you know that every one of them would fight to the death regardless if faced with the real enemy.

And at least he had some appearance of having a f**king clue. Even if not much of it...

[Donnywolf]

Interesting piece by Preston, Glyn.

That sums up what I mean by being worried about May's connection with reality. She is outwardly acting as though she truly was a Strong and Stable leader. She's behaving as though she is dictating the agenda.

But she's not dictating anything. No-one is listening to her. She doesn't have the power to direct anyone to follow the path that she wants.

It's bizarre and, from a human point of view, a bit sad to watch. She's acting like she thinks she's Churchill. Everyone else sees her as Captain Mainwaring. 

She’s not a “normal” person though is she. The world is evolving so fast and the parliamentary system is still the same as it was 200 years ago and we end up with leaders like May. The whole system needs changing. You only have to watch the way MPs behave in the commons. It’s completely unprofessional at times and a lot of them just appear rude with their shouting out and grumbling. It’s completely outdated.

Completely agree with all that.

Complete set of Kids (if thats not being too unkind to kids because a lot I know are far better behaved than that)

They also whether in or out of "that place almost NEVER answer any questions UNLESS as seen in PMQs it is one they do want to answer"

Mrs May is no worse than anyone else on her side nor Labour in that respect - just an odd time you get Sir Vince Cable who is direct to the point and answers directly usually and Caroline Lucas (Green Party Leader / MP) who also does not fudge any issues that I have seen

Unfortunately neither of those have any chance of being elected under First past the Post. All we need is a modernised electoral system and dare I say a new Building to house those newly elected people in - and we could have a fresh start

Wont happen in my lifetime but would love to think we leave the 6 Club - that being the 6 Western democracies that DONT have PR in some format or other

Canada USA Ghana Australia us and one other I cant be bothered to look up ! They are mostly "big" but big doen not mean better

[wing commander]

   I know this is a labour area,and I know that the vast majority of people on here are Labour supporters which is why we see post after post slamming May's ineptitude on how her government is leading this process..And I'm not disagreeing with it..

   What we don't see is any criticism of the labour party and how Corbyn is leading his party which is just as incompetent as her..BST is right that politics to the majority of people is superficial which is why the British public watch on and believe he's not making a effort for the country..They see him strategically plan a no confidence vote to try and force a general election,that failed..They see no firm alternative brexit plan from him that has a hope in hell of being accepted by the EU and they don't get the impression he is capable of leading a piss up in a brewery..

  The public want everybody to get round the table and thrash something out and Corbyn's response is to send a letter to everyone of his mp's demanding they don't engage in cross party talks...Now people can reply and give reasons why they wont because May wont shift but that doesn't matter because the public perception makes it look like he isn't making any effort for his country.Whether that be fact or not

   This is the most unpopular government since Guy Fawkes decided he fancied a bonfire,yet still they are infront in the polls.Infact it wouldn't surprise me that even after May's performance this last ten days she has probably increased that lead as crazy as that sounds...

   If Labour had a leader who the public thought was electable,produced a brexit plan that could be negotiated for all to see,came out and told the public what there stance was on a second referendum then maybe they would be doing a lot better than they are..

[Donnywolf]

Interesting piece by Preston, Glyn.

That sums up what I mean by being worried about May's connection with reality. She is outwardly acting as though she truly was a Strong and Stable leader. She's behaving as though she is dictating the agenda.

But she's not dictating anything. No-one is listening to her. She doesn't have the power to direct anyone to follow the path that she wants.

It's bizarre and, from a human point of view, a bit sad to watch. She's acting like she thinks she's Churchill. Everyone else sees her as Captain Mainwaring. 

She’s not a “normal” person though is she. The world is evolving so fast and the parliamentary system is still the same as it was 200 years ago and we end up with leaders like May. The whole system needs changing. You only have to watch the way MPs behave in the commons. It’s completely unprofessional at times and a lot of them just appear rude with their shouting out and grumbling. It’s completely outdated.

I would love to see ANY deal or any no deal or even a second vote to keep us IN just JUST JUST JUST JUSTso at no Point EVER in the future can she claim ANY credit for the "success" in delivering the exit from the EU

Get her hammered and then I can be the one at 10DS pointlessly shouting " have you delivered a strong a stable Govt EX Prime Minister" " have you delivered on the will of the British people EX Prime Minister" "were you the worst Prime Minister ever EX Prime Minister"

.... and Andrew Marr could shout " you can tell us now EX Prime Minister - did you know about the accidental firing of a Trident missile ?"
Sorry - I need help !

[Donnywolf]

Hi WC

I was just posting my essay above and I allude to Labour being just as bad as the Conservatives in Question answering

I agree that Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn look very poor. Because I live in a Labour stronghold and have relatives who live around the area as well further west - I often discuss B****t with them and mostly they say 2 things :

a) what would a GE do to alter the process (the only thing I can offer is Labour MAY campaign on a Remain ticket) though JC would be unlikely to do that.

b) they agree Labour will not win a GE under JC despite him being relatively popular amongst the Membership - and that they (my friends and relatives) say they WOULD not vote for Labour while he is in charge

That bodes badly for the Party and is particularly worrying given the mess we appear to be in with lots of major issues 
Ive added a chair because I will probably get flayed but I am but one Voter - with just my one Vote - with no great political expertise - and that opinion above is how I see it and the observations of local people

I bet May is kicking herself because if she actually called a Snap Election now and resisted repeating "a strong and stable Govt" about a million times she would probably carry the day.

[The Red Baron]

I thought Vince Cable made an interesting point yesterday. He said that May has no chance of getting her deal through Parliament. However, he also said if she wants a chance of getting her way she should put it to a referendum.

I wonder if she will move in that direction if/ when her attempt at "one more heave" fails?

[wing commander]

   I very much doubt she will do that and I don't think the country really has a appetite for it..The liberals are the only party to come out and make there position clear that they favour a second peoples vote (one of the most inaccurate names they could think off) And there support remains stagnant..

   I don't believe the public want a vote right now on anything,they wouldn't probably bother to get out and vote,the turn out would be awfull...The first vote was billed as a once in a lifetime vote,the public want the politicians to just get on and get it sorted...

   They can count themselves lucky this is not France else most major city's would be burning every weekend..

[wing commander]

    DW...I've never voted Labour in my life,i voted Liberal when I was younger but have been a Tory ever since.My position right now is that I'm not anything..I'm waiting to be swayed by a party who is prepared to show some proper unity and strength and if that was Labour then I would vote for them...

    I've always said if you cant be bothered to use your democratic right to go and put a cross in a box,dont argue about the concequences,but right at this minute if we had a GE tomorrow I couldn't in all faith go out and support any of them and that's a sad reflection on were we are...

 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Thing about praising Cable or Lucas for being open, is that neither of them have a shot at power and neither of them have a fractious, split party and electorate to keep happy.

Corbyn had a reputation for being direct and honest as a backbencher. That literally did not last 3 months when he took over as Labour leader. He was immediately into fudging answers on everything from whether he would kneel in front of the Queen to whether he wanted us out of NATO. Because he knew that a straight, honest answer would alienate people who he had to attract.

It's not the fault of the individuals. It's our idiotic party system where the two main parties are designed facto coalitions, covering wide ranges of opinion. So the leaders HAVE to fudge and evade if they are not going to piss off one part of their support.

[wing commander]

   That is a very good point bst..cant disagree with any of that..

[Donnywolf]

... and given that I said Cable or Lucas are not going to get elected any time soon under FPTP .....

.... and that the current Electoral System is very poor in terms of representing lots and lots of people I too cant disagree