Brexit deal

[bobjimwilly]

There's 32 days left in the commons before the Brexit deadline. If Article 50 isn't extended or withdrawn by then, we're f*cked, because these last minute amendments and suggestions of going back to Brussels will be fruitless.

[bobjimwilly]

New insight into the mind of a brexiteer:
"It would do the country good to go without food"
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1090010668164620289

 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Amazing int it?

3 years ago it was "We'll thrive outside Europe"

A year ago it was "There'll be some rocky times as we settle down but then it'll be ok."

Now it's "It'll do us good to do without food."

I heard a Tory MP say a week or two back that we coped with the Blitz and we coped with the Black Death so we'll cope with Brexit.

What in the name of God has happened to this country? We used to be a watchword for self-interested pragmatism. Now we've gone f**king insane. And for what? What are we going to gain to justify the madness we're in the edge of jumping into?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Genius.
https://mobile.twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1090169518075322373

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not genius.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1090266265304748033

What an utter f**king shambles we look to Europe.

The Govt spends 2 years negotiating a deal without ever bothering to check whether there was support for the deal in Parliament.

The 27 EU Govts all agree it.

May takes it to Parliament, saying this is the only deal available and the EU won't re-negotiate.

Parliament rejects it by a historic margin.

The EU firmly, loudly and consistently says it won't re-open the negotiations.

May spends today in Parliament supporting a motion to give her a mandate to go and re-open negotiations with the EU.

It is utterly f**king bonkers. All to do with the games being played about who rules the f**king Tory party. And the entire country is being made to look an incompetent laughing stock because of it.

[MachoMadness]

The EU have already put out a statement saying they will reject the Brady amendment. And yet our MPs are still voting on it and May is still backing it publicly. It's being debated as we speak. It's like having a debate over what the Rovers score was on Saturday. It's been and gone already! It's decided! I do feel like we're in the Twilight Zone here.

[Donnywolf]

... too true MM

Waste of time again - voting to send "her" back to open the Agreement again and abolish the Back stop when the EU have said time and again - we will not renegotiate

I hope the electorate remember this total s***storm when this is all over one way or the other

UNACEPPTABLE 

[Filo]

Just another big boot of the can by the looks


Theresa May is like the 2 year old kicking off in the shop because his parents won’t buy him some sweets

[DonnyOsmond]

She's really made the worst out of a shit job.

We're clearly heading to no deal thanks to her and her government.

[RedJ]

The EU have already put out a statement saying they will reject the Brady amendment. And yet our MPs are still voting on it and May is still backing it publicly. It's being debated as we speak. It's like having a debate over what the Rovers score was on Saturday. It's been and gone already! It's decided! I do feel like we're in the Twilight Zone here.

And incredibly, the amendment has been passed. Batshit crazy, this.

[MachoMadness]

The EU have already put out a statement saying they will reject the Brady amendment. And yet our MPs are still voting on it and May is still backing it publicly. It's being debated as we speak. It's like having a debate over what the Rovers score was on Saturday. It's been and gone already! It's decided! I do feel like we're in the Twilight Zone here.

And incredibly, the amendment has been passed. Batshit crazy, this.

And some people say politics is a waste of time.

[BillyStubbsTears]

But as I keep saying, this is about one thing only. The Tories jockeying for position for who to blame when we end up with Ref2.

When this is kicked back, the ERG can blame May for being hopeless and the EU for being intransigent. Makes you weep.

[SydneyRover]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punxsutawney_Phil

[albie]

Kick the can down the road as a political strategy, we have nothing else to offer!
Pretend  to enter"negotiations", then blame the EU for not accepting changes to the agreement put in place by her own red lines when she agreed the terms.

May is using delay as a tactic to make the meaningful vote (when it comes) a straight choice between her wretched deal and a toxic no deal.

She knows the ERG will back no deal, and that the HoC numbers opposed to that makes her option preferable, despite being shite.

Treeza is also thinking that the 14 Labour MP's who defied the party whip will continue to offset her own refuseniks, giving her the numbers to push it over the line.
She can play on the insecurities of Labour members from Leave supporting areas for game management.

The 14 need to ask themselves if  their constituents will be in a better place as a result of a May deal going forward.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/labour-mps-rebel-vote-down-yvette-cooper-no-deal-amendment

Struggling to see it myself!

Lets see if anyone finds some backbone when she returns with a heroic failure in 2 weeks time!

[IDM]

Does anyone in the real world actually understand what the f**k is going on with brexit, apart from the usual dick waving politicking.??

[Glyn_Wigley]

Kick the can down the road as a political strategy, we have nothing else to offer!
Pretend  to enter"negotiations", then blame the EU for not accepting changes to the agreement put in place by her own red lines when she agreed the terms.

May is using delay as a tactic to make the meaningful vote (when it comes) a straight choice between her wretched deal and a toxic no deal.

She knows the ERG will back no deal, and that the HoC numbers opposed to that makes her option preferable, despite being shite.

Treeza is also thinking that the 14 Labour MP's who defied the party whip will continue to offset her own refuseniks, giving her the numbers to push it over the line.
She can play on the insecurities of Labour members from Leave supporting areas for game management.

The 14 need to ask themselves if  their constituents will be in a better place as a result of a May deal going forward.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/labour-mps-rebel-vote-down-yvette-cooper-no-deal-amendment

Struggling to see it myself!

Lets see if anyone finds some backbone when she returns with a heroic failure in 2 weeks time!

A good theory, let down by the fact she can't present her deal to the House again in it's present form because it's already been voted down.

[The Red Baron]

Kick the can down the road as a political strategy, we have nothing else to offer!
Pretend  to enter"negotiations", then blame the EU for not accepting changes to the agreement put in place by her own red lines when she agreed the terms.

May is using delay as a tactic to make the meaningful vote (when it comes) a straight choice between her wretched deal and a toxic no deal.

She knows the ERG will back no deal, and that the HoC numbers opposed to that makes her option preferable, despite being shite.

Treeza is also thinking that the 14 Labour MP's who defied the party whip will continue to offset her own refuseniks, giving her the numbers to push it over the line.
She can play on the insecurities of Labour members from Leave supporting areas for game management.

The 14 need to ask themselves if  their constituents will be in a better place as a result of a May deal going forward.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/labour-mps-rebel-vote-down-yvette-cooper-no-deal-amendment

Struggling to see it myself!

Lets see if anyone finds some backbone when she returns with a heroic failure in 2 weeks time!

A good theory, let down by the fact she can't present her deal to the House again in it's present form because it's already been voted down.

I'm playing Devil's Advocate here, but surely if she goes to Brussels and comes back with no changes to the Withdrawal Agreement she can re-present it as the EU's final offer? Also, might some changes to the Political Declaration, where there might be some wriggle room, constitute a change to the package MPs voted on last time?

The only other things to break the log-jam are a General Election or another Referendum. Corbyn's No-Confidence motion proved there wasn't support for a GE. At the moment, there aren't anything like enough MPs in favour of Ref2.

[albie]

Glyn,

As I posted further up the thread, the May deal is now "May as amended", so will come to the HoC as such in 2 weeks.

Further amendments will be tabled once she returns. It is then that we will see movement in the votes as variations are re-submitted.

As TRB says, GE and Ref2 are not in the game until the numbers realign around the revised amendments. They MAY come back into play, but it is not a given.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Changes to the Political Declaration are meaningless. The ERG want a legally binding set of wording in the WA which effectively neuters the Backstop.

The EU said before the vote last night (and they've been saying for weeks now) that won't happen. Because a Backstop that we can walk away from is, by definition, not a Backstop.

This is all about positioning for the forthcoming Blame Game when we're faced with the real decision in February - Accept May's original deal, crash out with No Deal or go for Ref2.

Of those three alternatives, the first is unrealistic given the opposition to it two weeks ago and the second would be lunacy. So the third will happen. But only when there's no alternative. And when that happens, the politicians all want to blame someone else for it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is bang on the money.

https://m.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2266593683665364/

I don't agree with the final paragraph, because I still think there are enough grown ups in Parliament to prevent us going into the self-inflicted madness of No Deal. But the fact that the Tory party is taking us to the cliff edge of that scenario is reckless in the extreme. If we DO stumble into No Deal, it will be the biggest foreign policy disaster since Chamberlain at Munich. With similar economic consequences.

[Boomstick]

Similar economic consequences to ww2? 

Thanks for the laugh.

[BillyStubbsTears]

8-10% drop in GDP over a decade?

Keep up.

I know facts aren't your strong point, but you'd do well to look at the numbers.

In the early part of the War, our GDP exploded as we went balls out to produce guns and bombs and planes and tanks and boats. We financed that through huge Govt debt. After the early stage, as the USA and USSR took up the majority of the fighting, we cut back sharply, with GDP dropping by about 8% between 1943 and 1946.

https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1940_1950UKb_17c1li011mcn__UK_Gross_Domestic_Product_GDP_History

You want us to take a deliberate decision to have a similar loss of growth, albeit over a longer timescale.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn,

As I posted further up the thread, the May deal is now "May as amended", so will come to the HoC as such in 2 weeks.

Further amendments will be tabled once she returns. It is then that we will see movement in the votes as variations are re-submitted.

As TRB says, GE and Ref2 are not in the game until the numbers realign around the revised amendments. They MAY come back into play, but it is not a given.

May's deal hasn't been changed at all yet. And certainly not then agreed to by the EU. If all May gets out of the EU are 'legal reassurances' or something similar, the deal is still exactly the same. It cannot be re-presented to the House with out substantial changes (ie not just a few rewordings that don't change anything.) otherwise the Speaker will not allow it to be voted on as it would be in essence the same Deal.

PS You didn't say 'May as amended' in your post that I quoted. But it doesn't matter as it hasn't been amended/altered yet.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Kick the can down the road as a political strategy, we have nothing else to offer!
Pretend  to enter"negotiations", then blame the EU for not accepting changes to the agreement put in place by her own red lines when she agreed the terms.

May is using delay as a tactic to make the meaningful vote (when it comes) a straight choice between her wretched deal and a toxic no deal.

She knows the ERG will back no deal, and that the HoC numbers opposed to that makes her option preferable, despite being shite.

Treeza is also thinking that the 14 Labour MP's who defied the party whip will continue to offset her own refuseniks, giving her the numbers to push it over the line.
She can play on the insecurities of Labour members from Leave supporting areas for game management.

The 14 need to ask themselves if  their constituents will be in a better place as a result of a May deal going forward.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/29/labour-mps-rebel-vote-down-yvette-cooper-no-deal-amendment

Struggling to see it myself!

Lets see if anyone finds some backbone when she returns with a heroic failure in 2 weeks time!

A good theory, let down by the fact she can't present her deal to the House again in it's present form because it's already been voted down.

I'm playing Devil's Advocate here, but surely if she goes to Brussels and comes back with no changes to the Withdrawal Agreement she can re-present it as the EU's final offer? Also, might some changes to the Political Declaration, where there might be some wriggle room, constitute a change to the package MPs voted on last time?

The only other things to break the log-jam are a General Election or another Referendum. Corbyn's No-Confidence motion proved there wasn't support for a GE. At the moment, there aren't anything like enough MPs in favour of Ref2.

No she can't because it's already been voted on and rejected.

I mean...what? Have a second vote because you didn't like the first one..? Isn't that supposed to be undemocratic?

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's actually a strong case that a No Deal Brexit will be worse that WWII for our economy over a long period.

During the War, we realised that Govt direction of the economy could significantly boost the economy. As a result, once we'd got over the shock, we boomed.

https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1920_1970UKp_17c1li011mcn__UK_Gross_Domestic_Product_GDP_History

That's not going to be the result of a No Deal Brexit. Every prediction is that No Deal will put us into a much slower growth trajectory for at least 15-20 years.

And that's the Britain that you want.

[Pancho Regan]

This is all about positioning for the forthcoming Blame Game when we're faced with the real decision in February - Accept May's original deal, crash out with No Deal or go for Ref2.

Of those three alternatives, the first is unrealistic given the opposition to it two weeks ago and the second would be lunacy. So the third will happen.

I know you have steadfastly maintained the view that No Deal will not happen BST, and that Ref2 will, but I have to say that with each passing day and week the horrendous prospect of crashing out with No Deal becomes more and more of a possibility.

By the same token, my gut feel is that Ref2 becomes less and less likely as the clock ticks down.

I hope I'm wrong, but with the bunch of idiots in the HOC I fear we are sleep-walking into a disaster.

[drfchound]

Does anyone in the real world actually understand what the f**k is going on with brexit, apart from the usual dick waving politicking.??

I feel the same way as you on this IDM.
Even people who have strong opinions about this are having to change some of their views.
There are also people who, on the face of it, tell us one thing as an absolute certainty to happen.
But.... along comes another person who claims to know what is going to happen......and it is different to what the other people have said.

[wilts rover]

It just shows how unclear and indicisive things are Pancho that after last night's votes I totally disagree with you. OK 14 Labour rebels voted against Cooper to extend Article 50 - but look who they were, Ian Austin, John Mann, Caroline Flint, there is no way on earth in a crunch vote to stop No Deal that they wouldn't support it. OK, Skinner, Hopkins, Snell might but it certainly wouldn't be 14 Labour MP's and a few more Tories would also change sides (as they said before last night).

Nothing is certain but the Spelman amendment passing was a very good indicator.

[Ldr]

If I’m seeing it right it’s ironic. The need to avoid the hard border in Ireland is driving the backstop, the thing stopping a deal and driving us to a no deal scenario and hard border is the backstop...........

[RedJ]

Throwback to when we were told this wouldn't be an issue...