Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

AL.

Jo Cox was murdered in the middle of the Brexit campaign by a man shouting "Britain First" as he stabbed and shot her.

Separating that from the vervid atmosphere of the campaign (and remember, it was the same day that Farage proudly unveiled a poster of immigrants that was pretty much identical to one that the Nazis used about Jews in the 1930s) is naive at best.

[albie]

TRB,

"That really would hammer the final nail into Labour's coffin. Socialists who wanted independence might as well vote SNP. Unionists would flock to Ruth Davidson's lot."

That has already happened....this is my point!
Labour cannot reclaim Scotland, so the dynamics of the UK system are forever changed.

The 2 party system is completely dysfunctional in these circumstances, but change to that system can only come through a coalition dispossessed by the status quo.

Some in Labour resist this, thinking (wrongly) that they can revive old patterns of voting behaviour.
For a whole suite of reasons, this is increasingly unlikely...so what to do?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

No, that's nonsense. There are currently 21 seats that the SNP hold where a swing of less that 2% would tip them to Labour. Saying that Scotland is lost to Labour is just flat wrong.

What IS guaranteed to lose Scotland for a generation is Labour being seen to facilitate Brexit.

[RedJ]

People on here don't appear to know an awful lot about the unionist vote in Scotland either. Many of them voted tactically to get the SNP out. In some places, people were very close to toppling them. The SNP are on borrowed time in Scotland, a lot of people - sections of their support included - are losing patience with them. There are a lot of Conservative voters in Scotland who would rather chuck their weight behind a Labour candidate to stop the SNP. It's very divided up there. Ever since a referendum, funnily enough...

[Not Now Kato]

Meanwhile, some interesting words from Michael Heseltine
 
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/25/theresa-may-leader-name-only-britain-brexit

[Axholme Lion]

AL.

Jo Cox was murdered in the middle of the Brexit campaign by a man shouting "Britain First" as he stabbed and shot her.

Separating that from the vervid atmosphere of the campaign (and remember, it was the same day that Farage proudly unveiled a poster of immigrants that was pretty much identical to one that the Nazis used about Jews in the 1930s) is naive at best.

I think we can be sure that the man who did this wasn't a full shilling was he? He had probably been building up to it for ages.

[albie]

BST,

You are turning into King Canute!

I thought you were a great man for the polls?
The position in Scotland has deteriorated for both Labour and Tories since 2017.

Labour is down from 27.1% to 23.1% on recent polling data. This translates into a 5 seat loss carried forward, leaving 2 Labour MP's in Scotland.
Tories are down from 28.6% to 26.6%, a loss of 1 seat, reducing them to 12.
SNP are up from 36.9% to 38.9%, meaning a gain of 6 seats to toal 41.

This assumes an even distribution of voting allocation across the country.

In addition to this, voting forecasts need to be adjusted for the TING group, and possible further division in Labour and Tory ranks.

So while we do not know how robust these forecasts will be, the indication of direction of travel does not support the likely revival of Labour in Scotland.

If you are within touching distance of regaining some seats, as you say, then you would need to show movement towards that goal, not in the opposite direction.

I am not aware of  any evidence that the policies you support will add to the Labour vote in Scotland.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I remember someone wanting those they called 'traitors' to be beheaded. But no doubt that was just anger and disappointment.

FFS. I was on here having a wind up, surely you can see that? This is the problem with Britain today, everyone has had a humour bypass! I wouldn't take most people seriously writing waffle on a footie forum just to pass an hour or two on a quiet afternoon.

I know you were on a wind up, but you seem to forget that what you write is permanent and can be read by all and sundry - including those who don't know you're a WUM. So you think someone who takes what you write at face value is humourless and it's their fault they don't get your little joke? What a f**king ego you have. Sums you up.

[Mr1Croft]

BST,

You are turning into King Canute!

I thought you were a great man for the polls?
The position in Scotland has deteriorated for both Labour and Tories since 2017.

Labour is down from 27.1% to 23.1% on recent polling data. This translates into a 5 seat loss carried forward, leaving 2 Labour MP's in Scotland.
Tories are down from 28.6% to 26.6%, a loss of 1 seat, reducing them to 12.
SNP are up from 36.9% to 38.9%, meaning a gain of 6 seats to toal 41.

This assumes an even distribution of voting allocation across the country.

In addition to this, voting forecasts need to be adjusted for the TING group, and possible further division in Labour and Tory ranks.

So while we do not know how robust these forecasts will be, the indication of direction of travel does not support the likely revival of Labour in Scotland.

If you are within touching distance of regaining some seats, as you say, then you would need to show movement towards that goal, not in the opposite direction.

I am not aware of  any evidence that the policies you support will add to the Labour vote in Scotland.

When the last election was called, Labour were polling at around 15% in Scotland. They secured 27% of the vote in the election just over 6 weeks later. That's a 12 point swing.

That swing wasn't from the Tories either, they were averaging around 28% before the election was called and they got 28.6% on the night.

Whereas the SNP were averaging 48% when TM called the election and only got 36.9% of the vote.

Whilst this isn't stone cold evidence that the same will happen in any forthcoming election, it is a stark reminder of how quickly things can change when we enter election mode.

Considering Labour managed a 12% swing in 6 weeks, a 2-5% swing in Labours favour in any future election is not beyond the realms of possibility.

We don't know what each party would stand for, whilst we can guestimate domestic and to a certain extent foreign policy, any election in the next 12 months (or weeks...) Would be fought and won on Brexit. This makes the 2 party system more relevant as a vote for anyone else would be a waste of a vote.

I'm with BST here, Scotland is not lost for Labour.

As for the TING/TIG groups, it's unlikely they will field candidates on a TIG platform in a snap election as they are still unregistered as a political party and it's more than likely a snap election would result in most sitting TIG MP's being decimated by their constituents, which only increases the number of Labour/Conservative MPs respectively.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

Well aye. Scotland is staunchly pro-EU. Corbyn has been virulently anti-EU for 40 years, and at Xmas was saying that he wanted a GE and would campaign for Brexit.

Hardly surprising that Labour has been going backwards in the polls in Scotland is it?

But that doesn't necessarily mean that Labour cannot win in Scotland.

And, be consistent. If you don't agree with the concept of polls, you shouldn't quote them to make a point.

[SydneyRover]

It would appear that with so little common ground anywhere in the UK inc' parliament that another vote + GE is the only way out of the maze.

TBD which comes first GE or vote, and what the vote contains.

My stance for a long time has been is that if May/gov't doesn't allow a vote there will be chaos before a subsequent GE and if Corbyn doesn't back a vote to the GE he will have to go too.

[bpoolrover]

At the minute most of the polls have tories ahead so what would it achieve?

[SydneyRover]

At the minute most of the polls have tories ahead so what would it achieve?

It would put all the players on notice and those that fail to make the right choices for the country and it's peoples will I think be looking for other work. At the moment there appear to be mps hiding in plain sight following this or that faction, I can't imagine a GE happening without all viable options on the table and no-deal kicked into touch. As BST has said a CU is non-negotiable.

[SydneyRover]

Try reading this link, it may be painful for some but it pretty much nails it.

''Amoral and venal: Britain’s governing class has lost all sense of duty''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/27/brexit-referendum-conservative-part

[Glyn_Wigley]

At the minute most of the polls have tories ahead so what would it achieve?

It'd probably put the DUP back in their box, at least.

[albie]

BST,

It is not the concept of polling I doubt, it is the use to which polls are put.

They are often used to support conclusions which are not justified on the basis of the data.
This forum is a great example, and many media outlets fall into the same trap.

All polls are limited by disregarding the error bars, ie failure to define the uncertainty range.
Proponents of a particular position use them beyond the time range which should  reasonably apply.

Since about 2010, the relevance of traditional polling has reduced.  Short term volatility has increased.
It is no longer the primary indicator of voting intention and political strategy, but a broadbrush sweep of where best to focus big data analytics.

Where resources are limited, better to target those to the key  groups of voters.
The ability to micro target segments of voters on specific issues via social media in the last few days before a vote is pivotal.

Consider how the Leave campaign placed focus before the referendum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4

Without supporting the politics of Cummings and his work, his use of data is intelligent and directed.
Contrast that with the hamfisted Remain campaign, wheeling out yesterdays men like Broon to trigger exactly the opposite response to that intended.

The techniques used by Cummings and Cambridge Analytica will continue into future elections, and will redefine politics as we know it.
Thinking it is unethical is one thing, preventing it happening almost impossible.

[bobjimwilly]

We wouldn't need polls to know the actual, current "will of the people" if there was a 2nd referendum. That would answer the question once and for all.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

I'm even more baffled now as to why you introduced the Scottish polling figures.

Are you now saying that the figures you quoted are irrelevant because...volatility and analytics?

There IS an established fact here. It's that there are 21 seats in Scotland where Labour needs <2% swing to take them from the SNP. To me, that screams out that Scotland is in play for Labour. If Labour had the policies and leadership to exploit that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well, if it wasn't pitiful enough seeing May's drawn out public nervous breakdown, here's the ex-head of Vote Leave having his own.

https://dominiccummings.com

[albie]

Simple enough, lad.

The Scottish polls do not prove anything...they are temporary and subject to change.

You have often suggested that because something happened in the past, a similar outcome is indicated by a current poll.
 
You have argued on here that polling indicators imply conclusions (eg, Corbyn should be x% in front by now) that the data cannot support.
I think that is incorrect.

Just using your own logic to backfill your argument.

Scotland is in play for Labour, but there is a big difference between a possibility of a Labour revival and a probability.
You are focused on the possibility, I am saying that it looks unlikely at present.

The key point is that you do not hang a political strategy on an outside chance. 
If you look to maximise your chance of winning, turning possible into probable is the aim.

Following on from Cummings and the implications of his video, should Labour offer a UK manifesto, or does Scotland deserve a different prospectus.
What policy changes specific to Scotland do you think Labour should adopt, and how do these differ from those in England?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

You're getting cause and effect the wrong way round in your rush to impose on me what you think I think about polls.

When you say that I have argued on here that polling figures imply conclusions, I'm assuming you refer to the fact that I've pointed out that Labour took three big hits in the polls in 2018 and that those were coincident with Labour dominating headlines for negative and entirely avoidable reasons (Corbyn's idiotic response to Salisbury in March, the self-inflicted anti-Semitism issue in the summer and TIG in December).

What I did in each of those cases was first to consider how they are likely to play with non-committed Corbynistas, and THEN to check what the polling figures said. Not start by looking at the polls and then look for something to hang an argument on.

I agree that polls are imperfect. I agree that voters are more fluid than before. None of that changes the fact that polls give a broadly accurate impression of trends. If Labour do stupid things and coincidentally, their poll ratings slip, there's no proof of causality, but, Ockham's Razor...

"Outside chance"? 21 seats. <2%. Yesterday you were saying Labour is dead in Scotland. That was the reason I got involved in the discussion. I'm not entirely sure how the discussion has got to this point, but in the fog of opinion, I assume you accept the actual 2017 GE figures as facts which imply that, with a more attractive policy platform, Labour ought to be able to have a good chance of making a huge gain in Scotland?

Which brings us back to policy. And as I've said time and again, Labour has excellent and very attractive domestic policies. But those are pointless in the current climate, certainly in Scotland, because the B word trump's everything. And, as I've also been saying for 2 years, Corbyn's brilliant sleight of hand in 2017 (convincing left Leavers and Remainers that he agreed with both of them) couldn't survive the Brexit process. Labour has slipped badly from its 2017 relative success. In Scotland, Labour is effectively giving up the game if it is able to be painted as a Brexit facilitator. That's a conscious decision that Corbyn has taken.

[MachoMadness]

Corbyn set to whip MPs to back a second referendum in the indicative votes. This could get messy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This is astonishing for three reasons.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1110883246756298752/photo/1

1) It looks like Tory members have finally seen through the Boris façade.

2) After 2 years of a rolling clusterf**k, Tory members still reckon May is by far the best option the Tories have as PM.

3) The other alternatives...God help us.

[wing commander]

  The whips should be withdrawn for indicative votes on all sides..else whats the point?? You are still going to get the party line impasse weve had for 3 years..

[albie]

Never mind, BST.

I'm not sure you have come to terms with the reach of the Cambridge Analytica influence, and the lessons to be learnt from Cummings, but there we are!

I do not think Labour is dead in Scotland, but the default is now SNP, not Labour.
I do think that on a probability assessment, Labour are unlikely to secure significant gains, and may suffer losses.
So at the moment, it is an outside chance.

If you think that is a probable outcome, you need to consider:
a) an improved and tailored policy offer to Scotland
b) how to compensate for a failure to regain seats in Scotland
c) the implications of that for post election scenarios

Perhaps it is time to come to terms with the reality that the UK is divided into voting blocks that fracture across party lines.
Maybe culture and identity are demanding a seat at the table.

Interesting thinkpiece from John Denham on this theme:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/england-on-the-verge-of-brexit-how-do-we-rebuild-a-nation/

Don't agree with all of it...but food for thought!

[Glyn_Wigley]

So May is saying she'll quit after her deal is voted through. Yet another layer of Brexit surreality because in essence what she means is "I'm a failure. And because you also know I'm a failure you want me to go, so vote for my failed deal and I'll go. However, if I fail yet again and you don't vote my failed deal through, I'm staying!!"

[Filo]

So May is saying she'll quit after her deal is voted through. Yet another layer of Brexit surreality because in essence what she means is "I'm a failure. And because you also know I'm a failure you want me to go, so vote for my failed deal and I'll go. However, if I fail yet again and you don't vote my failed deal through, I'm staying!!"

Falling on her sword at the alter of the Grand Wizards 😀

[Ldr]

After all the farce in politics over the last few years, Brexit, racism, backstabbing, dreadlocks anyone who even considers voting for any of the main 2 parties needs a lobotomy

[Glyn_Wigley]

So May is saying she'll quit after her deal is voted through. Yet another layer of Brexit surreality because in essence what she means is "I'm a failure. And because you also know I'm a failure you want me to go, so vote for my failed deal and I'll go. However, if I fail yet again and you don't vote my failed deal through, I'm staying!!"

Falling on her sword at the alter of the Grand Wizards 😀

There are now some saying that she's only done this because she knows Bercow won't let her put her deal before Parliament again so there's no danger of her having to go!

[DonnyOsmond]

Brexiteer MPs now starting to commit to this "terrible" deal. F#cking hell. Do any of them actually care about the country?