Brexit deal

[Herbert Anchovy]

Yes I agree but all those are minuscule in comparison to all the reasons for not leaving

Sydney

As a genuine and unloaded question on my part, what would you say are the 5 primary advantages to the UK remaining in the EU that would be impossible for us to introduce as non members?

Tariff free trading with EU countries which I figure is one of the biggest advantages of being a member. The boost to trade with this alone would bury most of any advantages to leaving in financial terms. I think that Austerity will look like a walk on the park compared to what the cost will be over 10 years from point brexit and possibly longer.

The clout the EU has with making deals with non EU countries especially the US, I think Trump wants to separate us from the pack so he can screw us over and force us into a trade deal he could not otherwise implement if we were part of the EU. The tories have already shown us what they think of the NHS and when the treasury has nothing in it it would be just dandy for them to suggest that we can't afford to rebuild this or that hospital but there is this really nice US pharma/med insurance company that wants to help us out.

In Australia a lot of the large infrastructure contracts given to foreign countries/companies include deals where they can ring fence the site and bring in their own cheap labour to build the project, this is partly because we are a stand alone country and partly because the government is hard right wing.

Unlike a lot of brexiters I think that freedom of movement is a benefit to the UK and that the majority of them come to the UK to work hard and earn a living and makes Britain better in so many ways. I do not think that many British farmers and companies will survive without this pool of foreign labour and that the tories or whoever gets power following Brexit will find a way to give them access, in fact I think that most of the things that brexiters want will be denied to them by any incoming governments over time.

I can't give you a definitive list of things that can or cannot be done once any form of brexit happens and neither can the government, no one knows because there is no definitive contract that spells it out but I can hazard a guess that just about everything will cost more except over time British labour which will be screwed over by successive tory governments who will remove safeguards and reduce wages.

Good stuff, thanks Sydney

I’m glad you mentioned tariffs because this is one area where I struggle due to my ignorance of the subject.

A while ago, I read that post Brexit, most imports would be tariff free. After Brexit 87% of imports by value, wouldn’t have a tariff, compared to 80% currently. However, some tariffs would be maintained to protect U.K. industries particularly agricultural. Under the scheme, some imported cars would attract tariffs, but car parts from the EU would remain tariff free to protect the UK car industry.

Also, under current rules only 56% of imports from outside the EU are tariff free and this will increase to 92% post Brexit.

The expectation is that this tariff free facility will be reciprocal with the EU and other countries around the world, something we’re unable to do currently.


Now, in my admittedly novice mind, all of this seems to be good news? What am I missing here?

[IDM]

I remember reading about tariffs.. the tariff on imported cars from the EU was going to be 10% - without a brexit deal.

It may well be that there would be fewer tariffs for industry, but for the consumer (ie voters) then some prices would inevitably rise.

So in theory all those leave voters who don’t care about no deal will be hit in the pocket when they buy a new BMW, VW, Fiat, Citroen etc..

[Herbert Anchovy]

I remember reading about tariffs.. the tariff on imported cars from the EU was going to be 10% - without a brexit deal.

It may well be that there would be fewer tariffs for industry, but for the consumer (ie voters) then some prices would inevitably rise.

So in theory all those leave voters who don’t care about no deal will be hit in the pocket when they buy a new BMW, VW, Fiat, Citroen etc..

You’re right about imported cars IDM, but for other things such as some fruits & veg, tv’s, & household furnishings they’ll be reduced to a zero tariff. Depends if the retailer passes on the savings though

[IDM]

It remains to be seen what deal gets agreed..

[idler]

I remember reading about tariffs.. the tariff on imported cars from the EU was going to be 10% - without a brexit deal.

It may well be that there would be fewer tariffs for industry, but for the consumer (ie voters) then some prices would inevitably rise.

So in theory all those leave voters who don’t care about no deal will be hit in the pocket when they buy a new BMW, VW, Fiat, Citroen etc..

You’re right about imported cars IDM, but for other things such as some fruits & veg, tv’s, & household furnishings they’ll be reduced to a zero tariff. Depends if the retailer passes on the savings though

My fear is HA that it will go just the same way that decimalisation went.  Prices went up with growers,wholesalers and retailers all blaming each other. I fear the same again, prices rising even when there is no need. Profiteering and then all the blame goes on Brexit with the man at the bottom suffering the most.

[SydneyRover]

OK guys this is your chance, I've just lobbed into Strasbourg would there be any messages you would like me to pass on?

[Bentley Bullet]

No matter how it all turns out Brexit will be blamed for all the negatives and will get no credit for the positives. Even if we end up the richest country in the world it won't be because of Brexit, because we would have been even richer still had we stayed in the EU, according to the Remoaners!

Bad losers never change.

[Metalmicky]

OK guys this is your chance, I've just lobbed into Strasbourg would there be any messages you would like me to pass on?

Yes - please ask them why they still insist on the toing and froing of the European Parliament between France and Belgium and all the expense that this creates..

Oh and please tell them to get their collective heads out of the trough.....

[Glyn_Wigley]

Yes I agree but all those are minuscule in comparison to all the reasons for not leaving

Sydney

As a genuine and unloaded question on my part, what would you say are the 5 primary advantages to the UK remaining in the EU that would be impossible for us to introduce as non members?

Tariff free trading with EU countries which I figure is one of the biggest advantages of being a member. The boost to trade with this alone would bury most of any advantages to leaving in financial terms. I think that Austerity will look like a walk on the park compared to what the cost will be over 10 years from point brexit and possibly longer.

The clout the EU has with making deals with non EU countries especially the US, I think Trump wants to separate us from the pack so he can screw us over and force us into a trade deal he could not otherwise implement if we were part of the EU. The tories have already shown us what they think of the NHS and when the treasury has nothing in it it would be just dandy for them to suggest that we can't afford to rebuild this or that hospital but there is this really nice US pharma/med insurance company that wants to help us out.

In Australia a lot of the large infrastructure contracts given to foreign countries/companies include deals where they can ring fence the site and bring in their own cheap labour to build the project, this is partly because we are a stand alone country and partly because the government is hard right wing.

Unlike a lot of brexiters I think that freedom of movement is a benefit to the UK and that the majority of them come to the UK to work hard and earn a living and makes Britain better in so many ways. I do not think that many British farmers and companies will survive without this pool of foreign labour and that the tories or whoever gets power following Brexit will find a way to give them access, in fact I think that most of the things that brexiters want will be denied to them by any incoming governments over time.

I can't give you a definitive list of things that can or cannot be done once any form of brexit happens and neither can the government, no one knows because there is no definitive contract that spells it out but I can hazard a guess that just about everything will cost more except over time British labour which will be screwed over by successive tory governments who will remove safeguards and reduce wages.

Good stuff, thanks Sydney

I’m glad you mentioned tariffs because this is one area where I struggle due to my ignorance of the subject.

A while ago, I read that post Brexit, most imports would be tariff free. After Brexit 87% of imports by value, wouldn’t have a tariff, compared to 80% currently. However, some tariffs would be maintained to protect U.K. industries particularly agricultural. Under the scheme, some imported cars would attract tariffs, but car parts from the EU would remain tariff free to protect the UK car industry.

Also, under current rules only 56% of imports from outside the EU are tariff free and this will increase to 92% post Brexit.

The expectation is that this tariff free facility will be reciprocal with the EU and other countries around the world, something we’re unable to do currently.


Now, in my admittedly novice mind, all of this seems to be good news? What am I missing here?

Whether we leave with some sort of deal or not, we will be leaving the Single Market, from an arrangement where the trade between the UK and 27 other countries is completely tariff-free to one where all that same trade will become liable to tariffs. Also, we will lose the FTAs that we have with approx 50-60 other countries that we currently enjoy purely by virtue of our being a member state of the EU, so that all the trade with those countries will be fully liable to tariffs too.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I remember reading about tariffs.. the tariff on imported cars from the EU was going to be 10% - without a brexit deal.

It may well be that there would be fewer tariffs for industry, but for the consumer (ie voters) then some prices would inevitably rise.

So in theory all those leave voters who don’t care about no deal will be hit in the pocket when they buy a new BMW, VW, Fiat, Citroen etc..

You’re right about imported cars IDM, but for other things such as some fruits & veg, tv’s, & household furnishings they’ll be reduced to a zero tariff. Depends if the retailer passes on the savings though

Ah, now it sort of makes sense. You've been given the 'We can trade on WTO terms' bullshit, the one where they bank on the audience's ignorance to make it sound like rainbows, unicorns and sunlit uplands.

Yes, we can unilaterally make goods tariff-free if we want to. But under WTO terms we would have to apply the same tariff rate to the same goods from whichever country we import them from - they have to apply universally. Sio we'd have the situation where, for example, imports from China would go from having Anti-Dumping Duty applied in order to stop them flooding our market with artificially low-priced goods (usually state-subsidised to keep the price low ) to a situation where they would not only not have anti-Dumping Duty applied, but also not even the normal Tariff Duty either.

So removing Tariffs on this basis would have two big results:

1. UK industry would be undercut by false competition from lots of directions and lots of businesses will go to the wall; and
2. The Treasury will lose one hell of a big wodge of revenue at a stroke, resulting in higher taxes or a whole new programme of 'austerity'

On top of this, you have to remember there is no reciprocation under WTO rules - even if we make a load of things Tariff-Free, there is absolutely NO obligation on any other country to make our exports to them Tariff-Free at all. Double Whammy.

And as for our agricultural sector, when we leave they will now be outside of the CAP, and therefore they will not be in a position of having Third Country produce attract a Countervailing Duty to stop them being undercut. Instead the UK itself will become a Third Country and so our produce will attract Countervailing Duty on our exports to the EU to stop them undercutting those EU countries still in the CAP. Triple Whammy.

[SydneyRover]

What Glyn said he's the man to ask technical questions about tariffs, but we are not going to engineer a better deal with the EU on the outside are we? they can't possibly give us a better deal than their own members. Think how wholesale buyers groups work, they band together to get a better deal from the manufacturers than they could as a single shop or whatever. That will be us after any brexit a single buyer/seller.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No matter how it all turns out Brexit will be blamed for all the negatives and will get no credit for the positives. Even if we end up the richest country in the world it won't be because of Brexit, because we would have been even richer still had we stayed in the EU, according to the Remoaners!

Bad losers never change.

So let's summarise your position.

1) Specific bad things were predicted to happen as a direct result of the decision to Leave, even before we actually did leave.

2) Those specific bad things happened.

3) You've consistently refused to accept that those things happened, or, when you have accepted that they happened, you've refused to draw the link between them and the vote (you've blamed them on the 2017 Election, uncertainty due to Remainers blocking Brexit and a general air if mardiness among Remainers).

4) The same economists who (correctly) predicted that bad things would happen as a result of the vote, also predict that worse things will happen when we finally do leave.

5) You refuse to engage with those predictions because, according to you, you can't predict the future.

6) Except that you ARE prepared to predict the future, apparently, when it comes to chucking stupid insults at what people with whom disagree.

You could actually engage with the issues here. But you never do. You just go looking for arguments. Then throw a strop when someone argues back and accuse them if being disrespectful.

[wilts rover]

Also, under current rules only 56% of imports from outside the EU are tariff free and this will increase to 92% post Brexit.

The expectation is that this tariff free facility will be reciprocal with the EU and other countries around the world, something we’re unable to do currently.


Now, in my admittedly novice mind, all of this seems to be good news? What am I missing here?

That's right Herbert, the May government did make a proposal to drop most import tariffs in the expectation that other countries would do the same.

They, like you, appeared to miss the obvious point that the value of tariffs is a major bargaining point in trade deals - and if the UK is reducing its tariffs by default there is no reason for any other country to do the same - as they have already got what they want.

Thus after Brexit we will have a worse trade deal with Canada than we have now.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1148480/brexit-news-uk-eu-trade-agreement-canada-justin-trudeau-liam-fox-no-deal-brexit-latest

They, like you, missed the

[Bentley Bullet]

No matter how it all turns out Brexit will be blamed for all the negatives and will get no credit for the positives. Even if we end up the richest country in the world it won't be because of Brexit, because we would have been even richer still had we stayed in the EU, according to the Remoaners!

Bad losers never change.

So let's summarise your position.

1) Specific bad things were predicted to happen as a direct result of the decision to Leave, even before we actually did leave.

2) Those specific bad things happened.

3) You've consistently refused to accept that those things happened, or, when you have accepted that they happened, you've refused to draw the link between them and the vote (you've blamed them on the 2017 Election, uncertainty due to Remainers blocking Brexit and a general air if mardiness among Remainers).

4) The same economists who (correctly) predicted that bad things would happen as a result of the vote, also predict that worse things will happen when we finally do leave.

5) You refuse to engage with those predictions because, according to you, you can't predict the future.

6) Except that you ARE prepared to predict the future, apparently, when it comes to chucking stupid insults at what people with whom disagree.

You could actually engage with the issues here. But you never do. You just go looking for arguments. Then throw a strop when someone argues back and accuse them if being disrespectful.

1) We still haven't left yet!


2) No, they didn't when the 'experts' said they would.



3) If I remember correctly I asked if it was possible that our economy might have been affected by the General Election. I never personally said that it had. Perhaps you should have another look and apologise accordingly.

As for me accepting there has been an economic drop since the Brexit vote, I've NEVER said otherwise! Everyone and I mean both Remainers and Leavers expected an initial slump in the economy after the leave vote because of the uncertainty of the future. We still have uncertainty about the future because three years later we still haven't left!

4) Everyone expected that a leave vote would initially have a negative effect.

5) I never said you can't predict the future. I run a competition to find out who's the best at it! What I'm saying is there are no experts at it, especially when referring to something that has never happened before

6) What insults? Do you mean like calling people stupid petulant thick racist berks? YOU, BST should have gone and had a long think about yourself before you of all people called someone else disrespectful..

[SydneyRover]

Wilts, I'm really at a loss to understand how many ppl think that by reducing our buying power by a magnitude of 27 countries admittedly some of them small that this could possibly benefit the UK, the mere fact that trump wants us to leave should sound alarm bells. Look at the countries that want a piece of the EU like Turkey, why would a country that which is now a virtual dictatorship want to join the EU if it thought it was going to lose or take back control

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

Right. Now we get to the core of this obsession of yours.

Tell you what. Find a single example of me calling anyone stupid, racist or thick in the absence of any supporting evidence.

[Bentley Bullet]

I never said I was referring to you about those comments, but they are examples of some of the things I've been called by those who, like you, are as sour in defeat as the Cowley brothers.

Your line of personal insult is more of the tight old bas**rd leavers type who should now be dead.

[SydneyRover]

In the interest of ending this feud or reducing the intensity then you could show us who you are referring to because it you seem to be using a very broad brush bb.

[BillyStubbsTears]

In response to your other points.

1) Jesus wept...

2) Yes. They. Did. The economic experts predicted a sharp devaluation, a spike in inflation, falling real wages as a result, a sharp reduction in foreign investment, an ongoing productivity slump and a sharp economic slowdown. Every one of those things happened. They were predicted to happen not because of uncertainty, but because of the high likelihood that ANY form of Brexit would lead to a weaker economic future. The only uncertainty is whether it is going to be bad or very bad. If there was a likely upside, there would be many companies who would be  investing heavily on the chance of making a killing by getting in ahead of the pack.

3) Those predictions were demonstrably correct. And now you're at it again, saying it is due to uncertainty, which you yourself blame if Remainers blocking Brexit. You've also regularly suggested that we've struggled after the Vote because of Remainers' moaning about the outcome instead of knuckling down. What you have never once done is accept that the bad things that happened in 2 were predictable and predicted by straightforward economic analysis.

4) So you flatly contradict your response to 2...

5) What you have constantly done is to refuse to engage with the overwhelming consensus of people who spend their lives analysing these things and have a long track record of being right. You simply dismiss them as being of no importance. And then you make smart arse remarks about other people's supposed bad faith.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Nice backtracking BB. Throw out an implied accusation, get called out on it and then say "I never meant you."

Pathetic.

[Bentley Bullet]

SydneyRover. In the interest of not adding fuel to the fire, I suggest you stay out of this. If you want to know read the threads yourself.

[Bentley Bullet]

Backtracking? f**k me! Read question 6. That is what the answer referred to!

[SydneyRover]

In the interest of not adding fuel to the fire, I suggest you stay out of this. If you want to know read the threads yourself.

Not buying it bb, put up or shut up I think is the correct term here.

[Bentley Bullet]

I'm sure your leader will be well pleased with your attempts at bailing him out! Well done Syderney!

[SydneyRover]

Still not buying it bb, you can talk the talk but you're legless.

[Bentley Bullet]

In response to your other points.

1) Jesus wept...

2) Yes. They. Did. The economic experts predicted a sharp devaluation, a spike in inflation, falling real wages as a result, a sharp reduction in foreign investment, an ongoing productivity slump and a sharp economic slowdown. Every one of those things happened. They were predicted to happen not because of uncertainty, but because of the high likelihood that ANY form of Brexit would lead to a weaker economic future. The only uncertainty is whether it is going to be bad or very bad. If there was a likely upside, there would be many companies who would be  investing heavily on the chance of making a killing by getting in ahead of the pack.

3) Those predictions were demonstrably correct. And now you're at it again, saying it is due to uncertainty, which you yourself blame if Remainers blocking Brexit. You've also regularly suggested that we've struggled after the Vote because of Remainers' moaning about the outcome instead of knuckling down. What you have never once done is accept that the bad things that happened in 2 were predictable and predicted by straightforward economic analysis.

4) So you flatly contradict your response to 2...

5) What you have constantly done is to refuse to engage with the overwhelming consensus of people who spend their lives analysing these things and have a long track record of being right. You simply dismiss them as being of no importance. And then you make smart arse remarks about other people's supposed bad faith.

No. What I've constantly done is supported democracy. The result of the referendum being carried out far outweighs the financial consequences in terms of importance any day.

[Forum Admin]

BB / BST:
Please don't kill this interesting thread with a personal slanging match - take those messages to the PM's if you must.

Thanks.

[bobjimwilly]

The result of the referendum being carried out far outweighs the financial consequences in terms of importance any day.

100% disagree. So many valid opinions that the referendum was floored and the preceding campaigns were borderline illegal, no way should one referendum kill an economy for generations to come. Pretty thoughtless statement that BB, IMO.

[Bentley Bullet]

BJW. It is your democratic right to disagree with the result of a democratic vote, but how long will you have such a democratic right if we do away with democracy by not honouring them?

[IDM]

I don’t think BJW was saying he disagrees with the referendum result.  He says it was flawed.. he also didn’t point the finger at either of the campaigns directly.

No one can ignore the result, but it is equally as democratic to challenge something which isn’t working, and we think about it and vote if necessary.  Note that I don’t specifically mean leave vs remain, but more about getting a satisfactory deal to leave the EU as best suits the country moving forward.  Ultimately that could lead to another remain option, but let’s see if brexit can actually be managed first.

To me, no deal isn’t an option as an outcome, regardless if it is used as a bargaining tool..

I’m sorry BB (and Admin) bit your response o BJW is typical of how things can be twisted and distorted..